mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[Daenerys and Dragons]

hi adorbs hi cat hi cakes hi albert hi clidd

VOTE: group 1
This is unacceptable

This hydra hasn't been used since before season 8 came out...kinda awk lol

-dragons

[Daenerys and Dragons]

I think I'm the only one here who played in Partition 1?
It opened a lot differently, groups were even.

-dragons

[Ame]

too slow

[Ame]

I looked a bit through the first game. Scum also placed one in each group. I think this opening comes from one of the numbers-oriented players.

[Morning Tweet]

I just realized while writing this that if we lynch group one, and there's zero scum in there, we lose the game immediately. ack!

Actually I just realized if there's exactly 0 or 1 scum in group 1 and we nuke that group today, then we'd also lose immediately because scum get a nightkill on the first night, leaving the game at 2-2 on day 2

Oh.

i was gonna say something like, "No way scum thought we'd lynch group 1, because we'd figure it's too risky. that's exactly why we should lynch group 1"

But if 1 scum in group one is also a loss, then :/

maybe it is too risky lol

[Morning Tweet]

BUT if scum figured that we'd figure that, then they'd simply place all 3 scum (or at least 2) in group one. Cause of course we'd never pick group one

If i had to guess i would say there the most likely option is there's 2-3 scum in group one. But I could see scum possibly doing a 1/1/1 split and then pushing for a group one lynch in order to get a quick win, and at worst losing 1 member if group two or three is picked

What a bother!

[Kanna]

o/ excitement! i was really looking forward to this because of the playerlist!

tbh some self-destructive tenancy in me already wants to nuke group 1...

[Kanna]

i do like morning tweet's analysis.

without drinking too much wine, i think it's more likely there's more than one scum in group 1 and their plan is to bank on town paranoia not lynching them. otoh, i am paranoid and i don't know if the risk is worth it.

[Kanna]

P.S: I also enjoyed the song, Ame ✿

[Ame]

I think our biggest disadvantage is a lack of ability to pressure other players since it's diffused across the groups, and thus a lack of scum hunting.

I think sorting the players

in

the groups should be priority as normal, and inorder to do that we need a way to apply pressure to individuals. So what do you guys think of lynching groups based on a pseudo lynching individuals?

We can use hurt tags and use them to maintain our own vote count. Then when a

player

gets a majority, we lynch that group. If the player is in group 1, we reset the count and begin again. If yet another player from group 1 gets majority, we lynch that group.

Otherwise I think discussion is likely to be limited to speculating about where scum placed themselves and going around the wine/yomi cycle

@Kanna same, I initially joined because Clidd came out of his newbie game hiding hole, and was excited to see you and dsj signed up! It feels like a conspiracy.

[Kanna]

tenancy

*TENDENCY

[Ame]

And to clarify we'd only reset and do another round of the player is in group 1

specifically

. We'd only lynch group 1 if two players from that group are pseudolynched back to back.

[Ame]

Glad you enjoyed the song, Kanna!

[Ame]

if*

[enomis]

Hey Guys.

VOTE: Adorable

I wanna lynch group 1. I think scum may have placed 2 scums in there. Think it's a good bet.

[enomis]

I think our biggest disadvantage is a lack of ability to pressure other players since it's diffused across the groups, and thus a lack of scum hunting.

I think sorting the players

in

the groups should be priority as normal, and inorder to do that we need a way to apply pressure to individuals. So what do you guys think of lynching groups based on a pseudo lynching individuals?

We can use hurt tags and use them to maintain our own vote count. Then when a

player

gets a majority, we lynch that group. If the player is in group 1, we reset the count and begin again. If yet another player from group 1 gets majority, we lynch that group.

Otherwise I think discussion is likely to be limited to speculating about where scum placed themselves and going around the wine/yomi cycle

@Kanna same, I initially joined because Clidd came out of his newbie game hiding hole, and was excited to see you and dsj signed up! It feels like a conspiracy.

I think this is too complicated tbh. I am thinking if we should just play the game as normal.

Also, why does group 1 get an advantage by needed to be voted twice. Because there is a chance we lose the game straightaway?

[Ame]

What do you mean by play normal?

[Morning Tweet]

There's a 95% chance there's 1+ scum in group one, since they can put a scum in there for free and still win if that group is lynched. i know it's not really the most surprising statement but i gotta start somewhere

The ONLY reason i can think of for putting 0 scum in group one, would be if they're playing a crazy trick and putting all scum in 2 and 3 to set themselves up for a long game using the towny status the group that we don't lynch of out two and three

what i mean:

Spoiler: If group one has 0 scum

GROUP 1:

Adorable
Ame
Cat Scratch Fever
Daenerys and Dragons
Hoctac
Kanna
Morning Tweet
Raya36

GROUP 2:

Albert B. Rampage

clidd

GROUP 3:

dsjstr

enomis
Mohab500

See if we lynch group #3 and two scum flip, we'd probably assume the final scum is in group #1. And then let's say they nightkill Albert. We'd probably all assume clidd is the most likely town member in the game, and we'd lynch people from group #1 the next day

Still I think this would be a bad plan. It's possible that we then theorize on d2 that scum places themselves with clidd, and we lynch clidd's group anyway. If clidd places himself in a group all by himself, then we'd question why any sane scumteam would do that and we'd at least reevaluate him

So i think overall there should be 1+ scum in group one. The only thing holding me back from saying we nuke group one is the very real possibility scum puts just 1 member in group one to have a 1/3 shot at instantly winning the game. not a bad plan

so, where would the other 2 scum go most likely? aaa i dont know yet

[Ame]

And yes because 1 scum isn't enough to lynch group 1 as per cats post

[Ame]

All I've had today is cereal and French fries

[Morning Tweet]

Spoiler: scum's options

Place 1 scum in group one: You get a shot at winning the entire game on day one, but if you don't win on day one, you must lose 1 or 2 scumteam members and only get rid of 1-2 town. ow! More likely to be a 1/1/1 split versus 1/0/2 split, so most likely you just lose 1 member

or

Place 2 scum in group one: You are very likely to hold onto 2 of your members, as long as group one isn't lynched (which is in theory the most unlikely group to be lynched). You then have a 50% chance to lose one scumteam member and you will remove somewhere between 2-3 town

or

Place 3 scum in group one: You are highly likely to hold onto all 3 of your members, however if town nukes group one you lose immediately. You have a high chance of success, but you only get rid of 2-3 townies, and if you fail you just lose

I'm not sure if there's a way to determine which option scum would be most likely to pick. I don't know if the scumteam are gamblers or not. Personally i'd either go 1/1/1 and take the 1 in 3 shot at winning, or i'd put all 3 scum in group one knowing there's a super high chance of survival. all or nothing

therefore, i think it makes a lot of sense to try and find individuals we think have a higher likelihood of being scum or town (i think that's what enomis meant by "play normal"). Then we can use that to decide whether or not we should take the chance

so.... this has been me using long posts to determine really basic stuff that probably took other ppl 5 seconds to figure out. sorry about that (- ‿ - ；)

[enomis]

What do you mean by play normal?

I meant scum hunt normally. And come to a consensus about groups late in the day based on who you scumread.

[enomis]

Anyway, now that I think about it, are we straight into MYLO even if 2 scums is in group one?
Because 5 people will be left and one will be night killed. So there will only be 4 left.

[Morning Tweet]

oh i didnt consider that. hmm

so would they bank on us deciding that we never lynch group one, and place all 3 in there to guarantee their own safeties as long as group one is protected, or would they play it safe and put 2 scum in group one and 1 scum outside. if they play it safe with 2 scum in and 1 out, no matter what group we lynch, they're not hurt too bad and they might even have all 3 scum survive

I'm leaning towards the latter option, since 3 scum inside group one introduces them to the possibility of being totally wiped out for not a lot of gain over just having 2 scum in group one. I could also see 1/1/1 being a possibility to give them that bonus 1/3 shot at winning

So it's probably 2/1/0 or 1/1/1. And if it is one of these, then we either go to MYLO or lose the game entirely if we lynch group one. ugh

If there's less than 3 scum in group one, then we shouldn't lynch group one-- do i have that right? I'm not sure if 3v1 MYLO is something we want or don't want. but for what it's worth, i think 2 scum in group one is the most likely answer. That way, no matter what option we pick, they're not losing too bad

[dsjstr]

What do you mean by play normal?

I meant scum hunt normally. And come to a consensus about groups late in the day based on who you scumread.

I agree. I get the feeling that group one looks like a good lynch because there are more people in that group so there is a higher chance to hit a mafia. Also, I want to propose the idea that mafia did not do 1-1-1 because that would guarantee that they lose one member.