Cyclic Experimentation Set x01 - [Game Over]

[WrathChild]

Just a thought. If we lynch CKD and they flip Mafia it will confirm at least two townies. If we lynch DGB and she flips SK it will confirm no one. DGB, if she is an SK, will have ZERO passing restrictions. I think at least two confirmed townies are more beneficial then preventing the death of 1 by lynching the SK tonight. What if DGB hits scum tonight? How else are we going to get rid of the tresstump. I'm not the only one saying these things, but I wanted to reiterate them.

[popsofctown]

Confirmed townies are only useful in that you know, "hey, this is a guy I should never vote for".

Since pretty much everyone agrees on lynching ckd and DGB consecutively in some order, that point is moot. We'll know not to lynch the people ckd has a relationship too tomorrow because we'll be busy lynching ckd.

We'll get the confirmed townies eventually, and in the meantime townie confirmation is of no use. It's like cutting in line to get on the bus first.

[WrathChild]

So if we are in agreement that CKD and DGB need to die, then we need to let DGB live and hopefully kill the stump. If DGB is truely town as she claims, her lynch tomorrow will still allow her to win the game.

[WrathChild]

Also, no one hates confirmed town more than scum, so yes they are useful.

[DrippingGoofball]

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

I have not claimed SK, get lost, now you're pushing the misrep a little too far.

I'm town and I win with the town. Furthermore, I'm totally anti-scum.

Alternate pro-town wincon softclaim? Not buying it since you already claimed Eruci earlier.

Nice misrep once again. No such softclaim. How can you possibly suggest what I said is a softclaim of "alternate" anything???

[popsofctown]

It's not in her best interest to shoot the stump as any alignment but town. And there's no way she's town.

[popsofctown]

Confirmed town are useful because you know not to lynch them. If you're following a lynch itinerary and no one on that itinerary could possibly become confirmed town, it's irrelevant. Stop putting all five fingers on a rule of thumb.

[DrippingGoofball]

It's not in her best interest to shoot the stump as any alignment but town. And there's no way she's town.

But what if Q21 is town, and you're scum? Maybe you should be purged.

[popsofctown]

It's not in her best interest to shoot the stump as any alignment but town. And there's no way she's town.

But what if Q21 is town, and you're scum? Maybe you should be purged.

lol at the SK puppeteers. Pinocchio clearly wants to be a real boy.

[DrippingGoofball]

Let me rephrase to increase my chances of an intelligent answer.

Are there any reasons why

you

shouldn't be purged? You're awfully insistent that Q21 needs to die.

[popsofctown]

Huh? q21 is a rather distant third right now (or fourth, not keeping close track). I don't find it important he die super soon, everyone wants you to shoot q21 though because they find him to be somewhere between mildly and very scummy, AND he's holding a stump.

I shouldn't be purged because I'm town. Don't know what you want past that.

[WrathChild]

DGB, can I get a clear statement on your ability to Purge? Is this something you possess indefinately?

[Saint]

Actually, to be quite honest,

[doing whatever she wants]

describes what DGB does with every alignment, in every game, and probably even in every minute of her day to day life.

I can't really fault that...~

Just a thought. If we lynch CKD and they flip Mafia it will confirm at least two townies. If we lynch DGB and she flips SK it will confirm no one. DGB, if she is an SK, will have ZERO passing restrictions. I think at least two confirmed townies are more beneficial then preventing the death of 1 by lynching the SK tonight. What if DGB hits scum tonight? How else are we going to get rid of the tresstump. I'm not the only one saying these things, but I wanted to reiterate them.

You are correct that you're not the only person saying these things.
You're also not the only person COMPLETELY IGNORING MY RESPONSES TO THEM. But I'm not bitter.

But what if Q21 is town, and you're scum? Maybe you should be purged.

This is the part where IAI says something profound, I think.~

Are there any reasons why

you

shouldn't be purged?

*implication that she or someone she has authority over is in charge of Purging

(Minus the fact that otherwise sensible people are completely ignoring me, I'm kind of enjoying this.)

[nhammen]

the whole misrepresentation from NHammen may not mean he is scum, but it definitely has my FoS

Not a misrepresentation, just a misunderstanding of the mod's answer. But I can easily understand why you feel that way.

#5 Can we please get take a look at the uber-suspicious Purge ability. Didn't DGB claim it cycled? So... should the person who held it before and after him be safe to come forward?

This is a large reason for the suspicions surrounding DGB. We

have

been taking a look at this.

If you read my plan, there is a reason:

1) q21 is scummy and has the treestump. The Purge Ability is the one chance to take them both out at the same time. DGB is off limits today.
2) DGB should be tracked. If they come back doing anything other than targeting q21, auto lynch from the group D5

If we are down 4 scum to start D5, DGB may still be the best lynch D5. That is a decision for then. But for now, DGB is off limits.

Am I the only person getting deja-vu? Didn't trying to direct the day-vig end badly for us? And now you want to direct a night vig that we don't even know any details of? That is looking more like a scum kill than a vig? I'm not sure that this plan will succeed any better than the previous one. I guess it's the best way we currently have... that's pretty bad though.

"Purge ability (whoever that may be ) is used on q21"
"DGball, should be tracked. If he gets tracked with anyone other than q21,

everyone needs to lynch him D5

."
"

If Purge is with someone other than DGB, what does this do? Is there really any point to tracking her? If she doesn't target q21, then q21 doesn't die, and we know to lynch DGB, so tracking her has no effect upon this plan.

DGB vs. Saint is full of useless; after the beginning, the same points just get repeated. Yes, I get that there is evidence pointing to DGB being a SK. You don't need to be repeating that point so much. The signal to noise ratio of this argument is extremely low. And it is making it difficult to read.

@Saint: ckd is scum. DGB is probably scum. The difference is massive.

Yes, between the failure to pass to tmh and generally not existing since sometime in Day 2 there's quite a bit of reason to believe that ckd is scum, and only a fragment of Page 4 words to defend him.

Contrast that with Goofball, who has been all but positively identified as scum and (separately) a killing element.

The difference looks like:
*ckd has a snowball's chance in Florida of being Town
*Goofball has a snowball's chance in Hell of being Town
*A Goofball lynch, if SK, would reduce the number of night-killing elements in the game by 1, slowing LyLo even with the Tree Stump still in play. If second scumgroup, it would cast everything that has been done during the Day and the Night so far in a completely different light.
Therefore a Goofball lynch is not only more likely to hit scum, but also more likely to help Town.

That is the crux of the argument. Which one is more likely to be scum than the other. There are reasons to suspect both, but it is very difficult to say who is worse. Both of you responding like the answer is obvious does nothing to help the situation.

@Pops, you ask me if I am kidding. You said anti-scum factions would kill each other first. Well if that is the case, why is the shotgunning team shooting at MOI, Diddin, and me/Implosion? Your theory seems to only work for one team...

MoI was not particularly pro-town, just really active.

Diddin had been publically confirmed not to be a part of the shotgun faction, and wasn't autotown at all. As good of a shotgun target as an Elite standing a meter away with his shields down.

As for shooting you, idk

. The shotgun faction might have thought tunneling and dueling scum is a thing. Or the primary scum faction may be less certain there are two factions, since the purge kill flavor had a rather positive ring to it. Or it'd be the second time someone who was attacking me had died, so perhaps I was the ~real~ kill target there.

How do you know they shot me? I said either me (Doctor Protection) or Implosion (Hibernate Ability)?

Interesting.

I will reiterate the "interesting" and raise a "he never responded to this."

As furc has explained, leaving DGB alive is the most dangerous thing regardless of whether she's SK or an entire scumteam.

1. If DGB is SK and ckd is scum, lynching DGB puts the ckd lynch off a day, but then we lynch ckd the next day and an explosion of confirmed innocents and other preponderances of information win the game.
2. If DGB is SK and ckd is scum, lynching ckd gains the same preponderance of information and we then proceed with great accuracy, but we do so while potentially losing two townies a night, dampening the autowin down to a maybe. Yeah, maybe DGB is terrible at mafia and shoots q21, but even then you're just changing autowin of (1) to autowin, at the risk of losing autowin. Zat's no good.

If DGB is Sk and ckd isn't scum, but rather someone who didn't post in any games because he really wasn't on mafiascum, then lynching him means we lose up to two townies tonight, don't even get the helpful information, and are forced to lynch DGB the next day, and basically it's just like 2 except even more fail.

This argument, coming from one of the scummiest players, is the best argument I have seen on the issue.

Frankly those who are saying that lynching DGB is scummy are idiots.
Scum would both want to keep DGB around so later down the line they can say, "Alright now lets stop scumhunting and kill this Sk we are all so sure about!"
Scum would also want to kill DGB now because it means they don't have to waste their NK on him and he is a threat to their win condidtion.
This all means that wanting/keeping DGB around is a null tell.

Selective scumhunting is usually regarded as a scumtell, because it is an easy way for scum to fake scumhunting. IN the case of this game, I would call it a nulltell, because most players agree that DGB looks like an SK. Your argument that it is a nulltell, however, seems fabricated to me.

DGB has claimed multiple kills, in a game with cyclable abilities.

Wait. Did I miss something? Where was this?

Although now that you mention it if he can't be aligned with Goofball and he stopped the "shotgunned" kill, LMP is confTown no matter what.[/i][/color]

And now you too. How do both you and pops know who the shotgun targeted last night?

Assuming CKD hops on the competing bandwagon, we have Scum suspects {BL, Pops, Saint, and CKD} on the DGB wagon.

My first thought was to mention something about arrogance... and it's my second thought too. But...

curiouskarmadog (5

[+2]

) -

implosion,

WrathChild,

I Am Innocent,

StrangerCoug,

LynchMePls,

[

nhammen

,

DrippingGoofball

]

DrippingGoofball (3

[+2]

) -

Saint,

Bunnylover,

popsofctown,

[

curiouskarmadog,

q21

]

*Black - Green if Goofball-SK, Red if Goofball-second team

...you do have a point.

I agree with his point, although, personally I would switch the colors of pops and Coug, and I'm not even sure what pink means. Is it more or less scummy than orange?

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

I have not claimed SK, get lost, now you're pushing the misrep a little too far.

I'm town and I win with the town. Furthermore, I'm totally anti-scum.

Alternate pro-town wincon softclaim? Not buying it since you already claimed Eruci earlier.

Could you please tell me how you got that from what she said?

ScumDGB could also have a role interaction involving a teammate to protect her from nightkills, perhaps the ability remover of confusing mechanics does it somehow even.

WOW

How did I miss that???

Where does this NK protection bizniss come from?

Where does this ability removal bizniss come from?

You tell me. Why do you think you're alive?

Are you insane? Or are you scum that knows something that nobody else does?

Hi pops! I see you have now ignored two questions from other players (and responded to some others in a very useless manner). I have quoted IAI's question for you, and have restated DGB's in a different form. Please answer.

But what if Q21 is town, and you're scum?

I am starting to think of this as a

very

distinct possibility. But I still think we need to purge q21.

(Minus the fact that otherwise sensible people are completely ignoring me, I'm kind of enjoying this.)[/i][/color]

I will honestly say I haven't decided on the issue yet. Both ckd and DGB are scummy based on night information, and I can see the arguments for lynching both of them.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, can I get a clear statement on your ability to Purge? Is this something you possess indefinately?

Let's keep the scum guessing.

Let the scum worry that I am a SK. If you think about it, it's a very good thing.

But we do need to decide whether Q21 or pops is the scum that needs to die - regardless of the tree stump business. That's very important. Everyone should voice their opinion. EVERYONE. In their next post.

[DrippingGoofball]

@Pops, you ask me if I am kidding. You said anti-scum factions would kill each other first. Well if that is the case, why is the shotgunning team shooting at MOI, Diddin, and me/Implosion? Your theory seems to only work for one team...

MoI was not particularly pro-town, just really active.

Diddin had been publically confirmed not to be a part of the shotgun faction, and wasn't autotown at all. As good of a shotgun target as an Elite standing a meter away with his shields down.

As for shooting you, idk

. The shotgun faction might have thought tunneling and dueling scum is a thing. Or the primary scum faction may be less certain there are two factions, since the purge kill flavor had a rather positive ring to it. Or it'd be the second time someone who was attacking me had died, so perhaps I was the ~real~ kill target there.

How do you know they shot me? I said either me (Doctor Protection) or Implosion (Hibernate Ability)?

Interesting.

I will reiterate the "interesting" and raise a "he never responded to this."

ANOTHER ONE that I seem to have missed.

WOW

WOW

WOW

[DrippingGoofball]

K

pops is scum. There's no way in hell he's town anymore.

He's scum... even more than CKD. CKD, who is also scum.

[Saint]

Assuming CKD hops on the competing bandwagon, we have Scum suspects {BL, Pops, Saint, and CKD} on the DGB wagon.

My townie list X nhammen on the other wagon.

Yes I feel good about the CKD flip. nhammen and DGB should seal it...

I'm more then sure no one is aguring the fact that CKD will flip scum.
The whole thing is do we kill DGB first (I think so) or kill CKD? And by kill, I mean lynch.

I'm not sold on it, yet
He is perfectly capable of being incapable as town

[DrippingGoofball]

Roles that could determine a lack of scum teammates:

Treestump:

Implosion

->

Curiouskarmadog

->

I Am Innocent

->

q21

Day Vig:

diddin

->

themanhimself

(stole the ability) ->

StrangerCoug

/randomly sent to

WC -> WrathChild

Void Collector: (nobody D1) ->

I Am Innocent

->

StrangerCoug

->
Hibernate Ability:

quadz08

->

MOI

/Void/Collected by

I Am Innocent

->

Implosion

->
?:

popsofctown

(Virus) ->

DrippingGoofball

(DoubleVoter)/randomly sent to

LynchMe

-> LynchMePls -> ?
?:

Bunnylover

->

nhammen

->

Saint

-> ?
Tracker:

q21

/

nhammen

->

Implosion

->

I Am Innocent (Bunny)

-> ?
?:

q21

/

nhammen

->

Implosion

->

popsofctown

-> ?
Roleblock: Saint (DBE) ->

q21

->

Implosion (NC)

-> ?
Purge Ability?: ? ->

DrippingGoofball

-> ? -> ?

What does q21/nhammen mean?

[Saint]

DGB vs. Saint is full of useless; after the beginning, the same points just get repeated. Yes, I get that there is evidence pointing to DGB being a SK. You don't need to be repeating that point so much. The signal to noise ratio of this argument is extremely low. And it is making it difficult to read.

It's okay to skim. I should have stopped myself sooner from arguing with scum.

That is the crux of the argument. Which one is more likely to be scum than the other. There are reasons to suspect both, but it is very difficult to say who is worse. Both of you responding like the answer is obvious does nothing to help the situation.

Goofball is automatically worse because she's an independent killing element.

If you want to think more about it, there's at least an off-off-off-chance that ckd is playing an unredeemingly bad game. The chance of Goofball being able to back up her claims of being Town is zero.

And now you too. How do both you and pops know who the shotgun targeted last night?

I don't. At the same time, it's a very plausible explanation, one of two-and-a-quarter possible explanations (Hibernate and SK+NK-immunity being the others), and for right now I'm willing to go with it.

...wait.

Why would scum shoot IAI when he was holding the Tree Stump?

Meh, we'll worry about that later.

I agree with his point, although, personally I would switch the colors of pops and Coug, and I'm not even sure what pink means. Is it more or less scummy than orange?

Pink is slightly less scummy than maroon and much less scummy than puce.

As long as LMP is the one who blocked the shotgun kill he's confTown.
If Goofball flips SK and LMP blocked the shotgun IAI is confTown (and probably Town regardless of the shotgun hit provided Goofball flips SK).
You pointed out the Ability Cop subtlety, which gave you massive points IMO.
implosion has been a Town read from D1; although he's a blind spot right now I'm having a hard time caring.
I'm Saint.
I'm consistently getting half-clueless Town reads from Bunnylover and WrathChild.
pops is somewhere in the middle, leaning Town. Everyone is tripping over their arguments ITT, so that's not really a big negative. Iunno, at risk of sounding suspect words aren't coming to me for this one.
StrangerCoug is lurking like a boss and sheeping onto the ckd wagon. Between pops actively arguing for Goofball's lynch and Coug saying "screw it" and preaching to the choir, why yes Coug looks much worse.
q21 is a decently scummy read and hasn't done anything to stop it. It's possible that he's Town but not enough so that I would care if he died.
ckd would have to be playing the worst game of his career to be Town here. And I've seen some bad ckd-Town games.~
Goofball is blindingly obvious scum trying to bluff her way out of a lynch. Really, did you not see how her first line of defense was "I have an ability, you can't lynch me", or how she's softclaiming that she still has the Purge ability (never mind that she said she cycled it away), or how she's never actually argued against why she's being called scum except to insist that she's not, or how her latest line of defense is to throw accuse her attackers of being scum because they aren't arguing properly? I'm impressed with how she's trying to buck IAI's command to Purge q21 only - especially when both me AND pops have pointed out why as SK she has no reason to do that.

[nhammen]

Roles that could determine a lack of scum teammates:

Treestump:

Implosion

->

Curiouskarmadog

->

I Am Innocent

->

q21

Day Vig:

diddin

->

themanhimself

(stole the ability) ->

StrangerCoug

/randomly sent to

WC -> WrathChild

Void Collector: (nobody D1) ->

I Am Innocent

->

StrangerCoug

->
Hibernate Ability:

quadz08

->

MOI

/Void/Collected by

I Am Innocent

->

Implosion

->
?:

popsofctown

(Virus) ->

DrippingGoofball

(DoubleVoter)/randomly sent to

LynchMe

-> LynchMePls -> ?
?:

Bunnylover

->

nhammen

->

Saint

-> ?
Tracker:

q21

/

nhammen

->

Implosion

->

I Am Innocent (Bunny)

-> ?
?:

q21

/

nhammen

->

Implosion

->

popsofctown

-> ?
Roleblock: Saint (DBE) ->

q21

->

Implosion (NC)

-> ?
Purge Ability?: ? ->

DrippingGoofball

-> ? -> ?

What does q21/nhammen mean?

It wasn't updated. I had Trace on D1, and q21 had ? on D1. Also, could you please use different colors for people that have flipped town and people that you believe to be town?

[popsofctown]

oh come on, Vi, i'm pretty sure i remember having to type out

at least 5 times in the past 2 RL days

@Pops, you ask me if I am kidding. You said anti-scum factions would kill each other first. Well if that is the case, why is the shotgunning team shooting at MOI, Diddin, and me/Implosion? Your theory seems to only work for one team...

MoI was not particularly pro-town, just really active.

Diddin had been publically confirmed not to be a part of the shotgun faction, and wasn't autotown at all. As good of a shotgun target as an Elite standing a meter away with his shields down.

As for shooting you, idk

. The shotgun faction might have thought tunneling and dueling scum is a thing. Or the primary scum faction may be less certain there are two factions, since the purge kill flavor had a rather positive ring to it. Or it'd be the second time someone who was attacking me had died, so perhaps I was the ~real~ kill target there.

How do you know they shot me? I said either me (Doctor Protection) or Implosion (Hibernate Ability)?

Interesting.

I will reiterate the "interesting" and raise a "he never responded to this."

I thought I did, but I don't want to go through the thread and find a quote that proves someone wrong again, it's getting old.

I glazed over the possibility that DGB is NK immune. At the (100%) risk of using self provided meta, my perspective on this may be biased because the only time I drew SK I got no such luxury.
As for the possibilities of an unknown role preventing the kill even after the massclaim and scum just declining to shoot, they seem so unlikely that they don't need to be repeated every time something gets analyzed.

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

I have not claimed SK, get lost, now you're pushing the misrep a little too far.

I'm town and I win with the town. Furthermore, I'm totally anti-scum.

Alternate pro-town wincon softclaim? Not buying it since you already claimed Eruci earlier.

Could you please tell me how you got that from what she said?

Given that Goofball is an SK (or even just a permanent Vigilante who lies and quickhammers, so it's pretty much the same thing)

I lol'ed.

And I chuckled hard.

In any event, you guys seem to know that I'm Eruci, so my having a scumteam can be eliminated - though lying quickhammerin' permavig remains an attractive possibility.

Is the virus something that gets used up?

Direct claim here.

ScumDGB could also have a role interaction involving a teammate to protect her from nightkills, perhaps the ability remover of confusing mechanics does it somehow even.

WOW

How did I miss that???

Where does this NK protection bizniss come from?

Where does this ability removal bizniss come from?

You tell me. Why do you think you're alive?

Are you insane? Or are you scum that knows something that nobody else does?

I only meant to imply that DGB's beating heart and respirating lungs are a scumtell. She claimed vig.... oh, oops, actually I'm crazy. As of last night, everyone thought the purge was still cycling around, so scum wouldn't aim for DGB. It's only now in absence of purge claimage that we know it's something she can do night after night.

Hi pops! I see you have now ignored two questions from other players (and responded to some others in a very useless manner). I have quoted IAI's question for you, and have restated DGB's in a different form. Please answer.

I'm the most prolific poster in this thread. I get asked a lot of questions. Let's be fair, please. Maybe set up a ratio of questions I answer and the ones I don't, then make a pie chart out of stainless steel so I can take the "unanswered question" part to cut my meat at dinnertime. Suitemate took all our silverware when he left, the jerkwad.

EVERYONE.

Well, you did capitalize everyone. I'm gonna have to say q21.

[popsofctown]

oh dang, i didn't think {i} would italicize the rest of a post without a [/i] >_<

[Saint]

DGB, WHY ARE YOU MISREPRESENTING THE DAYVIG?
IT WENT TO THE VOID IIRC

[Saint]

therefore, SC is by no means clear, and should not be colored blue