Chaos Diplomacy FINISHED! Who were the survivors?

[Mist7676]

If I understand the rules correctly this should help for the Spring phase:

Attack one of them randomly. If it's the supporting one, it cuts support and everything bounces back. If it's the attacking one, you move into that territory but he keeps Holland.

[Cheery Dog]

supporting one wouldn't work.

We just need randommidget to be happy to fight people again

[Mist7676]

Why wouldn't that work? Doesn't attacking cut off support?

[Cheery Dog]

Not if it's from the one being attacked.

[Mist7676]

I see.

Then all I can promise is that I can move into Picardy to be in a position to help you more in the Fall. If he does move into Belgium, flip a coin on what to do and hope for the best.

[OhGodMyLife]

Matt I'm retreating my unit to Bel, we can't afford to go another year with that supply sitting empty instead of fighting on our side. I'll hand it over to you this year.

[Fluminator]

BOOM. Only 14 countries left. Will one of these 14 be come out on top?

I need moves by
Time Remaining

(expired on 2016-04-04 20:00:00)

[Mist7676]

Matt I'm retreating my unit to Bel, we can't afford to go another year with that supply sitting empty instead of fighting on our side. I'll hand it over to you this year.

I missed that and tried giving you the benefit of the doubt hoping you would stay true to your intent earlier of allowing MattP to keep Holland and Belgium.

MattP, I'm sure you don't trust his excuse; he's allowed people he's promised to protect get killed.

Ani might be able to help. If he is, we actually have options. If not, then Holland is done. Looking at this from a game theory perspective, there's a few options here:

Spoiler: WARNING: HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS AHEAD

Follow me here, it might get a bit confusing, heck I'm confused myself.

I'm assigning names to movements. OGML is G for Germany; MattP is H for Holland; Ani is S for Spain.

OGML: Belgium attacks Holland with Kiel support (G1) or Kiel attacks Holland with Belgium support (G2) (or do nothing but let's go with his opportunistic track record here).
MattP: Attack Belgium (H1) or Attack Kiel (H2). (or holding basically killing himself.)
Ani: Support Holland into Belgium (S1) or Attack Belgium (S2). (or

That's eight scenarios, I'll run through them briefly and look for the best scenario:

1) (G1)(H1)(S1): This ends up with MattP in Holland, OGML in Belgium. i.e. Nothing Happens.
2) (G1)(H1)(S2): This ends up with MattP being bounced by Ani and OGML in Holland. MattP could retreat to the North Sea of DeathNote is willing to move out of the way. If there is no retreat option, MattP is kicked from the game.
3) (G1)(H2)(S1): This ends with MattP being forced out of Holland and retreating into the North Sea if DN moves or out of the game.
4) (G1)(H2)(S2): This ends with Ani taking Belgium and OGML in Holland, eliminating MattP from the game.
5) (G2)(H1)(S1): This ends with OGML's Kiel in Holland, and MattP in Belgium. OGML's Belgium army would retreat to Ruhr.
6) (G2)(H1)(S2): This ends with Ani cutting off the support from Belgium and everyone bouncing back leaving MattP in Holland and OGML in Kiel. i.e. Nothing Happens.
7) (G2)(H2)(S1): This ends with a failed support and OGML in Holland. MattP is forced to disband or move to North Sea if DN moves.
8) (G2)(H2)(S2): Ani cuts off Belgium support so everyone bounces back i.e. Nothing happens.

So favorable scenarios are: 1, 5(the only one where things actually happen), 6, 8. That's a 50/50 shot! But wait there's more! Seeing this, OGML realizes he wins 75% of the time by Belgium attacking Holland with Kiel supporting. So this will most likely be his move. This means MattP has to attack Belgium and Ani has to support MattP into Belgium. This leads to no one switching spaces. But if OGML decides to switch us up and go with the other scenario where he attack Holland using Kiel and with Belgium supporting, guess what? Holland and Belgium just switch spaces! So the perfect moves to keep MattP in the game are: (H1)(S1)

or

A Hol --> Bel
A Bur S A Hol --> Bel

Scenario 1 (G1): If OGML attacks with Belgium, then 2 vs 2 causes both to bounce back.
Scenario 2 (G2): If OGML attacks with Kiel then Belgium is kicked out to Ruhr, and Holland moves to Belgium. Basically a space switch.

Hey, both cases keep MattP alive! The first would be preferable, so I can come into Picardy and support Holland into Belgium in the fall. But if OGML just moves into Ruhr, then we end up with another stalemate. Eh, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. (Digression but if he does move Munich to Ruhr, then his army in Belgium would be disbanded in scenario 2 (this is assuming he actually does move Munich to Ruhr because it's better for him to force MattP to disband if he goes against his word.)

I wouldn't mind someone checking my work, but I ran things through the backstabbr simulator, so I'm pretty sure of this.

TL;DR:
OGML is not trustworthy and will most likely try to take Holland. If Ani helps, the best case scenario would be MattP moving Holland to Belgium and Ani using Burgundy to support Holland into Belgium. No matter what OGML does, this keeps MattP alive.

MattP run this move:

A Hol --> Bel

Ani run this move:

A Bur S A Hol --> Bel

[OhGodMyLife]

blah blah blah everybody gangs up on ogml so his allies are all dead and now he gets blamed for that yawn

[OhGodMyLife]

I really need to know Cheery's intentions this turn because you're going back to sounding like you want to fight me

[OhGodMyLife]

How much longer is loki just ani's puppet?

[Mist7676]

blah blah blah everybody gangs up on ogml so his allies are all dead and now he gets blamed for that yawn

Hey, I'm only ganging up on you because you've expressed intent on moving the war to France; you want a war, you get a war.

[OhGodMyLife]

mist, hel is open so even in your fanciful simulator you're wrong, matt would not be eliminated in any scenario he would be able to retreat to hel. it is objectively a terrible move for me to backstab matt here, even if i weren't the subject of a witch hunt. and despite the constant propaganda i have no backstabbed anyone since diamond sentinel in year one.

[OhGodMyLife]

blah blah blah everybody gangs up on ogml so his allies are all dead and now he gets blamed for that yawn

Hey, I'm only ganging up on you because you've expressed intent on moving the war to France; you want a war, you get a war.

you ignored my repeated overtures to work with me against the medagree and even went so far is to completely ignore ani outright admitting he had been fantasizing about stabbing you in the back to stay loyal to an alliance committed to my destruction so yeah we're at war. if you want out of the medagree, by all means, take spain and talk to me we can have a jolly good time you'll unify france and we'll march on italy.

[Mist7676]

How much longer is loki just ani's puppet?

He said he's coming back on the 4th which is today!

mist, hel is open so even in your fanciful simulator you're wrong, matt would not be eliminated in any scenario he would be able to retreat to hel. it is objectively a terrible move for me to backstab matt here, even if i weren't the subject of a witch hunt. and despite the constant propaganda i have no backstabbed anyone since diamond sentinel in year one.

Hmm, seemed to have missed that then! I accidentally left Holland as an army and not a fleet, so it didn't give me that option. Whatever the case, it's best not to leave MattP in a vulnerable position, and keeping Ani in Burgundy and myself in Picardy puts pressure on you regardless of you backstabbing MattP or not.

[Mist7676]

blah blah blah everybody gangs up on ogml so his allies are all dead and now he gets blamed for that yawn

Hey, I'm only ganging up on you because you've expressed intent on moving the war to France; you want a war, you get a war.

you ignored my repeated overtures to work with me against the medagree and even went so far is to completely ignore ani outright admitting he had been fantasizing about stabbing you in the back to stay loyal to an alliance committed to my destruction so yeah we're at war. if you want out of the medagree, by all means, take spain and talk to me we can have a jolly good time you'll unify france and we'll march on italy.

I have no reason to be against the MedAgree when my only ally would be you. I'd end up having to fight against Ani trying to take Brest while keeping Marseilles safe from his army in Burgundy. Plus, Ani has given me no reason to distrust him. You on the other hand have expressed distaste towards me. How am I supposed to know you'll just drop that when I start putting myself into danger to unify France? It makes no sense.

[Mist7676]

mist, hel is open so even in your fanciful simulator you're wrong, matt would not be eliminated in any scenario he would be able to retreat to hel. it is objectively a terrible move for me to backstab matt here, even if i weren't the subject of a witch hunt. and despite the constant propaganda i have no backstabbed anyone since diamond sentinel in year one.

Actually, even in this case, if you were to backstab him, he'd still be eliminated in the Fall in Hel.

[OhGodMyLife]

Presumably, if I did in fact backstab him, I would lose any remaining support I do have on this map and he'd get support I couldn't stop either back into Hol or into Kiel, and all I would have accomplished is ruining what little credibility I have left.

[Mist7676]

Presumably, if I did in fact backstab him, I would lose any remaining support I do have on this map and he'd get support I couldn't stop either back into Hol or into Kiel, and all I would have accomplished is ruining what little credibility I have left.

DN could continue his neutrality streak and stay out of it and Random seems to be gone for now. By doing this, you gain 2 supply centers that you didn't originally have. It's so easy to continue dominating the map with these 2. But if you don't plan on attacking Holland, what do you plan on doing? If I move into Picardy, your army in Belgium will be stuck in Belgium. If you supported Munich into Burgundy, we could just force that troop to disband. You're playing a losing war here and you know it.

[DeathNote]

I just don't want to make promises I can't keep. I'll work as like... an agent for hire I suppose. What is Random going to do? Norway is a big unknown to me now and easily able to reach me. I'll just set up the English Fleets I guess and get them ready to support whoever needs it and can prove to me that I will benefit. I don't want to sit around doing nothing because i see the turks growing.

I'm also fine with Loki being a puppet so long as he just stays put.

[Mist7676]

I just don't want to make promises I can't keep. I'll work as like... an agent for hire I suppose. What is Random going to do? Norway is a big unknown to me now and easily able to reach me. I'll just set up the English Fleets I guess and get them ready to support whoever needs it and can prove to me that I will benefit. I don't want to sit around doing nothing because i see the turks growing.

I'm also fine with Loki being a puppet so long as he just stays put.

I don't believe either of us have any malicious intent towards you. The only thing I can say is that I'm closer to you, and thus have more to help you if we were to become allies. Or if we were to go to war, more to lose as I have no way of getting to you within the next few turns while you have easier access to attack France.

Also, Loki will be coming back today, so he will no longer be a puppet.

[DeathNote]

Technically.... Random is closer to me.

Loki coming back is kinda a bummer for me though. Lets see what he says if he gets here. Either way, I still won't be able to do much this turn other then re position the fleets.

[Mist7676]

Technically.... Random is closer to me.

Loki coming back is kinda a bummer for me though. Lets see what he says if he gets here. Either way, I still won't be able to do much this turn other then re position the fleets.

I meant between me and OGML

And I look forward to hearing what you have to say here then!

[Shadoweh]

Presumably, if I did in fact backstab him, I would lose any remaining support I do have on this map and he'd get support I couldn't stop either back into Hol or into Kiel, and all I would have accomplished is ruining what little credibility I have left.

Considering Russia is showing no sign of fighting you despite all the previous things and Norway is literally standing still rather then fighting you, I don't think you could hurt your credibility, honestly. So this is a non-sequitor.

This is quite complicated. Radja, I think Bella should support Bulgaria into Galicia. I'm not suggesting attacking Breeze at this point, it's the only way we're going to get our armies forward to Germany. All Breeze has to do is move towards Germany and he won't even be hit. I think we need Serbia to hold Trieste again as well, and Sev to move to Ukraine so Cheery doesn't try to surround us. I don't think they'll have qualms about cutting your support to take Bella.

Mist, can you move into the ocean? If you go to Lyon, Monty goes to Tyrr, Nya goes to Ionian and I go to AEG, we can finally make the convoy of my dreams. Naples can move to Rome and we can convoy from Albany to Venice with the fleet in Adr.

[Mist7676]

Presumably, if I did in fact backstab him, I would lose any remaining support I do have on this map and he'd get support I couldn't stop either back into Hol or into Kiel, and all I would have accomplished is ruining what little credibility I have left.

Considering Russia is showing no sign of fighting you despite all the previous things and Norway is literally standing still rather then fighting you, I don't think you could hurt your credibility, honestly. So this is a non-sequitor.

Mist, can you move into the ocean? If you go to Lyon, Monty goes to Tyrr, Nya goes to Ionian and I go to AEG, we can finally make the convoy of my dreams. Naples can move to Rome and we can convoy from Albany to Venice with the fleet in Adr.

Agreed. There's not much for OGML to lose here but much to gain.
How does me going into Lyon help with the convoy?