Amnesiac Mafia - Pre-Game Stage! OOPS GAME OVER

ISO · Post Post #2300 (ISO) » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:43 am

It's been laid out fairly well. You're scum or there's a mafia roleblocker. I doubt the rolestopper would have been stupid enough to be on me.

If I were scum, I'd have nothing to gain here by lying.

ISO · Post Post #2301 (ISO) » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:45 am

Was GIF outed as lender before he used the ability? If there is a mafia roleblocker, and I think the setup plainly calls for one, I don't see why they wouldn't have blocked him. Maybe he wasn't outed but I thought I remembered that?

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #2302 (ISO) » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:47 am

@serra: no confirmation.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #2303 (ISO) » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:49 pm

@Cephrir: I outed as lender. I also called who I passed the role to before the receiver.

Svenskt Stål · Post Post #2304 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:25 am

VOTE: no lynch

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #2305 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:27 am

No lynch is dumb when we have 2 conftowns.

JacobSavage · Post Post #2306 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:37 am

we have 2 conftowns and its mylo....

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2307 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:51 am

Which two are the conf-towns, GIF and Vifam?

And we have one scum in {Ceph, serra} for sure.

serrapaladin · Post Post #2308 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:33 am

In post 2300, Cephrir wrote:It's been laid out fairly well. You're scum or there's a mafia roleblocker. I doubt the rolestopper would have been stupid enough to be on me.

If I were scum, I'd have nothing to gain here by lying.

Well no, if you claimed to have received it you could have been cc'ed...

In post 2301, Cephrir wrote:Was GIF outed as lender before he used the ability? If there is a mafia roleblocker, and I think the setup plainly calls for one, I don't see why they wouldn't have blocked him. Maybe he wasn't outed but I thought I remembered that?

That night there was a Rolestopper on GiF though. It's possible there wasn't a Rolestopper in yesterday's setup, in which case I could have been blocked. It's either that, or Ceph is scum.

ISO · Post Post #2309 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:53 am

@serra: If I was mafia, I think I would have gotten the Lender safeclaim. I could be wrong though. Considering no one has claimed Rolestopper I think it's safe to say we didn't have one.

GIF isn't 100% clear I don't think, but close enough. If we assume Vifam and GIF are indeed town, that leaves 3 scum out of 6 remaining players. So even if you believe there is one scum between myself and serra, which is probable but not certain, we have just as good a chance of hitting scum if we lynch in the other four. Nacho has some night actions going for him (would scum have confirmed chesskid?). So I think my preference for today is still to lynch HD.

ISO · Post Post #2310 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:58 am

I had a town read on Sven day 1 but he's been slipping since then and not really helping. I don't know if scum-hohum would have flipped his shit over not being able to lynch a townie (yes, I know this logic only works from my POV, but I'm just giving my thought process). Then again I don't see anyone flipping their shit like that ever, so maybe not a tell? If we got to tomorrow I'd have to look back.

Another benefit to not no lynching is that if we lynch scum and we have a hider we can actually use it.

serrapaladin · Post Post #2311 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:03 am

Really? I would have thought that since scum can't actually be Lender, it would fail and the role be randomized, but I'm not sure.

That's a good point though. If we do No-Lynch, we forfeit using the hider.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2312 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:04 am

In post 2309, Cephrir wrote:So even if you believe there is one scum between myself and serra, which is probable but not certain, we have just as good a chance of hitting scum if we lynch in the other four. Nacho has some night actions going for him (would scum have confirmed chesskid?). So I think my preference for today is still to lynch HD.

directing the lynch pool to keep himself from being lynched

scumscumscum

we can NL and kill him tomorrow or kill him today, doesn't matter to me

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2313 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:06 am

You've even said it yourself; your case on me isn't even remotely solid.
The fact that you now want to lynch me in a MYLO situation with a bad case is all sorts of bad.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2314 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:06 am

In post 2300, Cephrir wrote:It's been laid out fairly well. You're scum or there's a mafia roleblocker. I doubt the rolestopper would have been stupid enough to be on me.

If I were scum, I'd have nothing to gain here by lying.

You mean other than a game-ending mislynch? (assuming there are 3 scum)

ISO · Post Post #2315 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:14 am

I'm saying if I were scum and had the lender fakeclaim, as I assumed I would have, I'd have no reason not to claim lender today, as I'm far more likely to be lynched than anyone.

I suppose there's a remote chance of getting this answered.

MOD: If hypothetically, a role exists that can assure a target player gets it the following day, and it happens to be named 'Lender', would a scum targetted by the Lender know it slash get a corresponding fakeclaim?

Lol @ trying to remove myself from the lynch pool. I'm pointing out that this isn't a dichotomy. It's ridiculous that anyone would find that scummy. Also, I'm allowed to care about my life as town anyway today seeing as lynching me ends the game.

I've grown more confident about my case as your responses to it have sucked.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2316 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:18 am

In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:I'm saying if I were scum and had the lender fakeclaim, as I assumed I would have, I'd have no reason not to claim lender today, as I'm far more likely to be lynched than anyone.

Saying you got the Lender role would confirm a 3rd town player. This would leave (again assuming 3 scum) 3 conf-town, 2 nonconf-town, and 3 scum. Town basically controls the lynch now. Plus, if we no lynched or lynched scum today, it wouldn't be feasible to hear you got roleblocked or some crap tomorrow. You'd basically be auto-lynched.

Therefore, yes, there is lots of scum motivation to claim you didn't get the Lender role.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2317 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:21 am

In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:Lol @ trying to remove myself from the lynch pool. I'm pointing out that this isn't a dichotomy. It's ridiculous that anyone would find that scummy. Also, I'm allowed to care about my life as town anyway today seeing as lynching me ends the game.

I'm aware.
At the same time, we have a fairly small lynchpool consisting of you and serra where we're fairly likely to hit a scum, yet you're completely opposed to lynching in it.
So I'm sort of questioning why you're not pushing serra if you're town.

In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:I've grown more confident about my case as your responses to it have sucked.

Not really.
You say they sucked but you never actually put any basis behind that statement.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2318 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:24 am

In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:MOD: If hypothetically, a role exists that can assure a target player gets it the following day, and it happens to be named 'Lender', would a scum targetted by the Lender know it slash get a corresponding fakeclaim?

Why would this matter, bye the bye? I'm curious.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #2319 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:24 am

*by the by

ISO · Post Post #2320 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:58 am

In post 2317, Human Destroyer wrote:
In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:Lol @ trying to remove myself from the lynch pool. I'm pointing out that this isn't a dichotomy. It's ridiculous that anyone would find that scummy. Also, I'm allowed to care about my life as town anyway today seeing as lynching me ends the game.
I'm aware.
At the same time, we have a fairly small lynchpool consisting of you and serra where we're fairly likely to hit a scum, yet you're completely opposed to lynching in it.
So I'm sort of questioning why you're not pushing serra if you're town.

First of all, because we're exactly as likely to hit a scum inside said pool as outside it, so thinking about the two of us as a pool is fallacious.
Second, because I don't view this pool as any more or less likely to contain scum than any other, I'd rather lynch the player I find scummiest, and in that regard serra is my second pick.

HD wrote:
In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:I've grown more confident about my case as your responses to it have sucked.
Not really.
You say they sucked but you never actually put any basis behind that statement.

I've responded to your arguments, most of which sound to me like you're grasping desperately for reasons to find me scummy. Ever since I initially voted you every one of your posts has sounded manipulative to me. Confirmation bias? Maybe a little. But I'm convinced I'm seeing something real, though I don't actually think anyone else is going to, nor do I think I'll be able to convince anyone.

In post 2318, Human Destroyer wrote:
In post 2315, Cephrir wrote:MOD: If hypothetically, a role exists that can assure a target player gets it the following day, and it happens to be named 'Lender', would a scum targetted by the Lender know it slash get a corresponding fakeclaim?
Why would this matter, bye the bye? I'm curious.

Because of the question of whether scum-Ceph has anything to gain by admitting to not being a Lender. I'm not entirely sure it does matter given what you pointed out in 2316. By extension though, it also sort of applies to scum-serra's possible motivation in claiming to have received it yesterday? Meh. Question stands, info is good.

ISO · Post Post #2321 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 6:01 am

Also your implication that I should be pushing serra if I were town is silly. Fromthat logical perspective, I should also be pushing serra if I were scum. But here's what's actually going on.

Knowing I'm town, I know that restricting the lynch to myself or serra gives at best a 50% chance of lynching scum today, and possibly 0%. If serra is scum and we lynch outside the two of us, there is still a 50% chance, and if he's town then it's better than 50%.

ISO · Post Post #2322 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 7:33 am

Vote Count

No Lynch - 1 (Svenskt stal)

Not Voting - 7 (Nachomamma8, Human Destroyer, GuyInFreezer, JacobSavage, Cephrir, Vifam, Serrapaladin)

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Activity Check - Nacho being prodded...

Deadline is April 29th, 8:59pm EST

Vifam · Post Post #2323 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 8:20 am

Whoa whats going on now

serrapaladin · Post Post #2324 (ISO) » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:06 am

Ceph, why are you so certain about there being three more scum? If you really are town, that'd mean 3 scum in {HD, Jacob, Sven, Nacho}, which I don't really see.

I really don't think scum would get the lender fakeclaim, but apparently mod won't answer that...

HD, it's not necessarily true that either Ceph or I must be scum. I'd say it's fairly likely scum have some sort of blocking role. If there was no Rolestopper, that's why Ceph could have not received the Lender pass. I do, however, still think that the more likely case is that Ceph is scum and didn't receive the fakeclaim, so he had to claim not to have received it in case someone else had. If there really are three scum and we wrongly lynch Ceph, it's game over, so I don't want to rush into that.