Mini 188: Texas Holdem Mafia - GAME OVER!

[Thesp]

EmpTyger, you're up.

[EmpTyger]

My computer works again

Before Emp or Thesp claim, we need Quagmire's full ability claim.

[Quagmire]

I told you, it would be much better for the town if my ability waited for tomorrow to be revealed. Please trust me.

[EmpTyger]

Mod: Can we get a chipcount?


I have been extremely hesitant to post today, lest I give any tells as to who I investigated and what the result was, as I feared that certain setups existed which would allow mafia to immediately win. So I’m actually really glad MoS made his claim, regardless of its veracity. Because now there is a second possibility I must consider: whether I am insane. Hence I am treating my result as ambiguous for now, which allows me to dismiss that worry.

I have further analysis I’d like to give about MoS’s claim, as well as about others’ and also about general strategy- but I will wait on that until claiming is finished, per the agreed ordering. And speaking of which...


Quagmire:

Please trust me.

Ridiculous. This is a game of mafia. I distrust you almost as much as I distrust Dranko. I don’t think this canine ability exists- but it’s moot since you’re not using it tonight.

I am the K9 (Canine). If I make a dog sound in every post, I have a special ability I will not name so as to help the town.

woof woof.

I didn't do it day one, because I forgot about it in my first post, and found it useless because there has to be one in EVERY ONE of my posts for that day.

So, there you all have mine.

I told you, it would be much better for the town if my ability waited for tomorrow to be revealed. Please trust me.

Well, well: the dog didn’t bark. I don’t know why you’re stalling, but quit it. You’ve run out of excuses. You’re not going to use this alleged ability tonight. You’re not going to use this alleged ability before you’d be revealing it tomorrow. Did you learn anything from Bamboo’s suicidal play? Claim fully- now!

Look, there are details of my role which would be better if they were kept hidden. But from a standpoint of allowing the town to identify mafia, it’s pointless. Because doing so would (a) make me look more suspicious and (b) allow the mafia to do the same thing and get away with it. And there is a good chance that the actions today and tonight will be deciding- tomorrow will be too late.

I can’t speak for the rest of the town, but you will have to say something awfully convincing- and much more so than “please trust me”- to convince me otherwise.

[Quagmire]

Sheot. I forgot to woof woof or something, so now I'll claim.

I can't be nightkilled if I bark in every post. I say that because I wanted the mafia to think I was a pretty powerful role, and they'd attempt to kill me, and nobody would die the next day. That and I'd be able to prove myself. But since I forgot my last post, the entire thing is moot. Damnit.

But, there's my full claim. If I make a barking noise in every post throughout the day, I get night protection.

[Aelyn]

Mod: Can we get a chipcount?

Agreed.

I have been extremely hesitant to post today, lest I give any tells as to who I investigated and what the result was, as I feared that certain setups existed which would allow mafia to immediately win. So I’m actually really glad MoS made his claim, regardless of its veracity. Because now there is a second possibility I must consider: whether I am insane. Hence I am treating my result as ambiguous for now, which allows me to dismiss that worry.

Interesting... I would personally like you to withold your results until all claims have been concluded and MoS has posted his results. In the same vein, I'd like MoS to hold back until all claims have been completed.

I have further analysis I’d like to give about MoS’s claim, as well as about others’ and also about general strategy- but I will wait on that until claiming is finished, per the agreed ordering. And speaking of which...


Quagmire:

Please trust me.

Ridiculous. This is a game of mafia. I distrust you almost as much as I distrust Dranko. I don’t think this canine ability exists- but it’s moot since you’re not using it tonight.

I am the K9 (Canine). If I make a dog sound in every post, I have a special ability I will not name so as to help the town.

woof woof.

I didn't do it day one, because I forgot about it in my first post, and found it useless because there has to be one in EVERY ONE of my posts for that day.

So, there you all have mine.

I told you, it would be much better for the town if my ability waited for tomorrow to be revealed. Please trust me.

Well, well: the dog didn’t bark. I don’t know why you’re stalling, but quit it. You’ve run out of excuses. You’re not going to use this alleged ability tonight. You’re not going to use this alleged ability before you’d be revealing it tomorrow. Did you learn anything from Bamboo’s suicidal play? Claim fully- now!

Nice catch. Quagmire, claim your ability. As mentioned, you can't use it tonight, and I really don't think there's much chance of the game lasting long enough for it to make a significant difference anymore.

I can’t speak for the rest of the town, but you will have to say something awfully convincing- and much more so than “please trust me”- to convince me otherwise.

Agreed.

No more holding back (there's a very good reason I've held back my ability so far, but rest assured I will claim it before I go all-in on Dranko.

[Aelyn]

Sorry for laying into you there, Emp, I posted before seeing your claim.

Thesp, time to reveal all, I think? Also MoS, your results please?

[Thesp]

I can't be nightkilled if I bark in every post. I say that because I wanted the mafia to think I was a pretty powerful role, and they'd attempt to kill me, and nobody would die the next day. That and I'd be able to prove myself. But since I forgot my last post, the entire thing is moot. Damnit.

Am I the only one who thought this ability was obvious?

MoS has posted his results already, by the way. (Raj/Aelyn, both innocent). In any case, I'm more inclined to hear EmpTyger's results first, but I'll defer to my mason buddy now. I'm A-Q, Big Chick, and I know Aelyn to be innocent and we can communicate at night. This gives us:

Badguys

Dranko20

Goodguys

Aelyn
Thesp

Unconfirmed

Mastermind of Sin
EmpTyger
Thok
Quagmire

I'm hesitant to speculate as to who our other pro-town role is for fear of their death (instead of the SK's or a mafia's), though I have my guess.

EmpTyger, please claim your investigations.

[Thesp]

Actually, don't bother yet. Before Dranko20 gets on...

I'm all in against Dranko20

.

I believe I have more chips than him, I don't know.

[EmpTyger]

WHOA! Way too many Aces out!

We have AJ folded, and AK, AQ, AA claimed. That's 5.

So either MoS is lying or Aelyn-Thesp are.

Okay- we clearly have 2 killing groups from last night.
Temporarily assuming there is a SK: they need to hit mafia tonight to have a chance.
SK: you need to kill off mafia.
If Thok or Quagmire is the SK: kill MoS or Thesp, whoever you think best. Reread the thread and take a stab at it.
If MoS is the SK: kill Thesp.

Temporarily assuming a second mafia (Aelyn-Thesp) exists... I don't know, I don't have time to work out the math. urgh this is really rushed, sorry- let me get this much up before LML logged on, and I'll think about it more. If you're innocent: why oh why did you rush things, Thesp???

[EmpTyger]

Okay, if we have 2 mafias, Aelyn-Thesp must be one of them.

Aelyn could be a godfather- with the title "Big Slick", that sounds likely- so that would explain MoS's innocent result if he is telling the truth. If Dranko was also in the mafia, then they pulled a gambit today. If Dranko wasn't, then that's how they were sure enough to go all-in.

So then there's another killing group, with at least 2 of {MoS, Quagmire, Thok, Tyger}. If Dranko wasn't in the Aelyn-Thesp mafia, he was a third member here. Each combination seems equally valid, with the exception of MoS-Tyger, as the competing claims are off. (and yes I know I haven't fully claimed yet, but at this point I think I'm going to pull a Quagmire and go with my own best interest and not to claim until tomorrow. Especially since each killing group is trying to target the other.)

urgh don't do well under pressure...

[EmpTyger]

Ack- forgot about Thok's A3!!!
Way too many Aces!

[Aelyn]

I think you may be overanalyzing the setup there, Emp.

Also, what results did you get with your investigations?

[Thesp]

I rushed it so that Dranko wouldn't get a chance to go all in against whom he thought was the serial killer (assuming a 3-person mafia 1 SK setup which seems so prevalent around here).

If Dranko was mafia in league with Aelyn and I, wouldn't it be odd for Aelyn to counterclaim him today, rather than try and get a mislynch that would win it for us?

I'm also not sure why the "too many aces" is inherent lying. After all, more ace hands are named than any other hands (if I recall correctly). I do suspect MoS is lying, though. My bet is Quagmire is also mafia, and Thok is our friendly neighborhood serial killer. And EmpTyger's right, the SK must hit mafia tonight to have a chance at winning.

[EmpTyger]

I rushed it so that Dranko wouldn't get a chance to go all in against whom he thought was the serial killer (assuming a 3-person mafia 1 SK setup which seems so prevalent around here).

I don't think Quagmire could be a SK- he has too few chips to survive the endgame, and he has no way of getting chips. So Dranko's going all-in would have either netted another mafia or confirmed an innocent. But whatever. Clearly rushed circumstances.

If Dranko was mafia in league with Aelyn and I, wouldn't it be odd for Aelyn to counterclaim him today, rather than try and get a mislynch that would win it for us?

Temporarily assuming Aelyn-Thesp-Dranko, it must have been some gambit you worked out the previous night. When you couldn't have know about Iammars's suicidal play. I don't know. I'm trying to cover every possibility. And it's silly to try for a mislynch, because no lynching will be occuring- only all-ins.

I'm also not sure why the "too many aces" is inherent lying. After all, more ace hands are named than any other hands (if I recall correctly). I do suspect MoS is lying, though. My bet is Quagmire is also mafia, and Thok is our friendly neighborhood serial killer. And EmpTyger's right, the SK must hit mafia tonight to have a chance at winning.

Well, if you're telling the truth, and I'm telling the truth, and that's the setup, then that's what we have. But you have no way of knowing if I'm telling the truth, and vice versa.

I didn't really have time to analyze strategy- but I wanted to mention the possibility. All I know is that there are 4 aces in a playing deck. We've seen *6*.

I mean, I was quickly checking the site while I rewarmed dinner- this was quite a shock, and I still need to eat dinner, and was hoping to catch an 8pm movie...

[EmpTyger]

blech This is a mess and I'm too hungry to think straight. Hopefully this thread will still be open later.

[EmpTyger]

I’ve gone back and forth on pulling a Quagmire. On one hand, I don’t want it to interfere with tonight’s actions. It might distract from the mafia and SK’s psychic battle tonight in trying to target the other fake Aces. I’m almost certainly safe; even if a scum group wants to target an innocent, Quagmire’s potential unnightkillability or Thesp’s high chip count are much more pressing concerns than a possibly insane cop who might potentially reveal a rival scum.

But on the other hand, I don’t want my hypocrisy to lead to something stupid happening during the day tomorrow. So I’m compromising on simply roleclaiming without revealing my result; anyhow, the result is useless without knowing my alignment.

I am [Agent] 99: Barbara Feldon; I’m effectively a deputy. My PM is worded ambiguously as to whether there is one cop. So I am unable to dismiss out-of-hand the possibility that MoS is telling the truth; that the game started with a multiple cops and I took over from the first to die. (And even if he is lying through his teeth, I still might be insane. I’m realizing just how perfect something like that might have counterbalanced the all-in mechanic.) Hopefully things will be clearer tomorrow.


Mod: Sorry for all the doublepostings, but hopefully it's clear I'm not deliberately trying to abuse the mechanic.

[EmpTyger]

Actually, there's probably no harm in revealing that I received a guilty result last night. I've hinted as much already.

(I suppose this is the equivalent of reraising myself?)

[LoudmouthLee]

Sorry... I was captivated by the game, and was vusy watching it unfold.

Consider that a compliment, as I post chipcounts and the such.

Consider this twilight, and will keep the thread open to discussion untill noon tomorrow EST.

[Dranko20]

Im innocent, guys. Aeyln is taking you all for a big ride, lynch him tomorrow. Sorry Thesp, but your chips are mine, even if you are protown

[LoudmouthLee]

Chip Count Before the ALL IN

EmpTyger-33
Aelyn-26
Thok-24
Thesp-23
Mastermind of Sin-15
Dranko-15
Quagmire-12

Pot - 53


"I'm big slick... no, i'm big slick!"

"Let's finish claiming... kinda." as thesp pushes all of his chips in, seemingly sure that Dranko is lying, and not Aelyn...

Dranko, was indeed scum, and needed to fold his hand. You have gotten rid of at least one of the mafia members.

Dranko - 44 (Magnum) - Mafia - Dead.

New Chip Count:

Thesp-91
EmpTyger-33
Aelyn-26
Thok-24
Mastermind of Sin-15
Quagmire-12

Since you had a successfull ALL IN, Thesp, you may have one of the following awards with it.

-You may have night protection for yourself tonight. (Protect your chipstack)
or
=You may have an investigation on anyone you'd like. (Look for tells)

Only problem? This MUST be done in the thread.

[EmpTyger]

Well, this changes the math considerably.

First of all: if Aelyn-Thesp are a mafia, then they've won. So assume they're innocent.


SK:
It should be clear that you cannot win unless you win the all-in tomorrow. Kill Aelyn (or Thesp if he doesn't take nightprotection) and good luck tomorrow. (In Quagmire's case, you need *very* good luck.)


Mafia:
You need 4 people alive tomorrow to win (ie: 2 nightkills to occur), and for the SK and the town to have bad luck. It's easiest for you if you try to kill off the SK. Obviously Aelyn nor Thesp can be the SK, so guess among whoever's left.


Thesp:
Nightprotection is useless at this point; if you take it, Aelyn will die instead and that's just as bad. Take the investigation. Either you or Thesp will be alive in the morning.

[Aelyn]

SK:
It should be clear that you cannot win unless you win the all-in tomorrow. Kill Aelyn (or Thesp if he doesn't take nightprotection) and good luck tomorrow. (In Quagmire's case, you need *very* good luck.)

Mafia:
You need 4 people alive tomorrow to win (ie: 2 nightkills to occur), and for the SK and the town to have bad luck. It's easiest for you if you try to kill off the SK. Obviously Aelyn nor Thesp can be the SK, so guess among whoever's left.

WHAT? Why are you giving sodding advice to the bad guys?

Listen, giving any hints - even misleading ones - to the scum is a bad idea.

MAJO

VOS: Emptyger

Thesp:
Nightprotection is useless at this point; if you take it, Aelyn will die instead and that's just as bad. Take the investigation. Either you or Thesp will be alive in the morning.

But if he takes the investigation, we don't currently know if he'll even survive or not.

Thesp, I'm mildly irritated at you for going all-in so fast, but no matter. I know you meant well

Emptyger, give us your results to date. There's no reason not to; it's certainly possible you'll die overnight, and as you've been outed you may as well let us know.

Mod:

If Thesp chooses to investigate, will he recieve the result before night ends or as night ends?

[LoudmouthLee]

PS: I love messing with everyone's heads

As it has been with any and all night actions, as long as there isnt something inhibiting the action, all actions are completed at the SAME time. (aka - Sunrise)

[Thesp]

Why again should the SK kill Aelyn or I? Wouldn't that be practically an auto-loss for him, as if the scum combined killed two townies, there would be 2 mafia, 1 SK and 1 townie? Bad for the SK. I'm beginning to think EmpTyger is mafia trying to (mis)direct the serial killer. As torn as I am on who to investigate, I will await for EmpTyger to claim his results before I make my decision.