Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

MrBuddyLee : 2 (Glork, Patrick)
No lynch: 1 (Mgm)

Not voting: MrBuddyLee

4 alive means

3

to lynch!

18 hours and 3 minutes until deadline!

[Mgm]

Besides, with 4 players and 1 standard mafia it's the best strategy to no lynch.
Text book example.

PHAIL. Do not apply this blindly without looking at the specific situation. The strategy you've given is only if you have no confirmed innocents. There may be other reasons for no lynching (cops and docs alive etc) but none of that applies here.

Doesn't matter. There are no dangerous unknown scum roles, so no lynching can bring us an advantage, no matter how small it may be.

[Patrick]

Doesn't matter. There are no dangerous unknown scum roles, so no lynching can bring us an advantage, no matter how small it may be.

What advantage? It just gives scum a choice of three endgames to pick from. I fail to see how letting scum shape the endgame gives us an advantage, even a tiny one. I think it gives scum a (more than tiny) advantage.

[Glork]

Patrick is exactly right. Mgm, based on your certainty of MBL last night and your complete change of opinion on him based on the nightkill, you have just shown that you are

EXTREMELY

susceptible to WIFOMing yourself into oblivion. I guarantee that whoever the scum is, they know this already. Patrick and I have both tried to explain why A) Thesp makes sense for MBLscum to kill; and B) Why using the nightkill to influence your suspicion is a terrible idea.

Yet tonight, if you don't die, I can already tell that you're going to wonder why that is so. This is going to lead to more ridiculous WIFOM on your part, especially if *I* am the one killed (which I really truly do fear is what will happen).




There is a HUGE strategic advantage for working towards a lynch in a 4-player endgame, rather than in a 3-player endgame:

In a four player endagme, the scum must convince *TWO* protown players to both come to the wrong conclusion about the same third protown player. In a three person endgame, the scum only has to convince *ONE* other player to vote for the wrong person.

I know from experience that it is exponentially harder to force more people to do the wrong thing in endgame. Combine that with the fact that, as Patrick said, No-Lynching allows for the scums to pick whichever endgame they choose (by choosing which player to kill tonight).

No-Lynch at 4 players alive is only the strategically correct play if the lynch decision is essentially random. On the surface, the numbers look prettier with only three players, but those numbers are *VERY* misleading. A year ago, Mgm, I would have agreed with you that No-Lynch was the "textbook" play in this situation. However, I feel that both the game and my opinions on the matter have shifted dramatically.

[Mgm]

Fine.

Unvote

[Patrick]

I believe we only have about 7 hours left until deadline. No lynch is poor play here, and if this leads us to defeat tomorrow, I will be simply irate.

[Glork]

Meh. Unless Mgm is going to stand down and vote MBL, we're going to No-Lynch anyway. Note that MBL has been conspicuously absent in the last 48 hours or so. He knows what's at stake in this game, and he should be well aware of the deadline. I think it's unlike him to just disappear like this.

[Mr Stoofer]

77 minutes until deadline...

[Mgm]

Meh. Unless Mgm is going to stand down and vote MBL, we're going to No-Lynch anyway. Note that MBL has been conspicuously absent in the last 48 hours or so. He knows what's at stake in this game, and he should be well aware of the deadline. I think it's unlike him to just disappear like this.

Like me, he probably doesn't see what's the use in talking. He's on the chopping block and there's yet to be an argument found that convinces you to change that vote.

[Mr Stoofer]

Deadline Vote Count

MrBuddyLee : 2 (Glork, Patrick)

Not voting: MrBuddyLee, Mgm

Deadlock at deadline! No lynch again!

[Mr Stoofer]

Tom Hagen has already told me who he wants to kill overnight. And it is

Glork

. Here is his card...

Day 7 - Endgame. With 3 alive it will take 2 votes to lynch!

[Mgm]

*places flowers on grave*

[Mgm]

Patrick, what flowers do you like?

[Mr Stoofer]

He's from York, Yorkshire so I guess he likes White Roses. Now can we get on with the game?

[Mgm]

I have my hammah ready. Just waiting for Patrick to talk (and for MBL's vote).
I'm not going to end the game without giving Patrick a final chance to beg for his life.

[Patrick]

Vote: MrBuddyLee

You should have killed this piece of scum yesterday. You do not have to lose us this game by being stubborn. Glork predicted this would happen, he explained in detail why MBL is scum and I'm town, and now we're here.

You said the Thespkill makes MBL look innocent for some incomprehensible reason, now you're completely ignoring the Glork kill. Pretty obviously as scum I'd have killed you and ridden out the endgame. There would have been a few WIFOM doubts, sure, but it would have been easy. It's so obvious I'm being setup here, and I feel almost powerless to do anything about it. I've tried to reason with you, Glork tried to reason with you, you refuse to listen. Why?

[Mgm]

Being stubborn is my best quality.

[Patrick]

I have my hammah ready. Just waiting for Patrick to talk (and for MBL's vote).
I'm not going to end the game without giving Patrick a final chance to beg for his life.

It is painful how you've already decided I'm scum before anythings happened today (which is what you were also doing last half of yesterday). I get the feeling I'm wasting my time trying to convince you of anything today, but months have gone into this, so I have to at least try.

MBL disappeared for the last 4 days of yesterday. You covered for him, saying he probably doesn't have much to day, which doesn't make sense, since Glork had just done full posts pointing out MBL's misrepresentations of his stance on Zindaras -- read post 2198. There is no way that you could say MBL had nothing to respond to. In his next posts. Glork took apart some of MBL's case against me, and explained why I'm protown. Again, nothing to respond to? Hardly. He just disappeared and lurked out the last few days, knowing he could kill Glork and use you against me in the endgame. Note that MBL said yesterday that he thought Glork was scum. So didn't it bother him that we might no lynch, he could get nightkilled and Glork would get the win? No! Because MBL knew he couldn't be nightkilled.

The three previous nightkills have all been guys who worked out I was town (CTD, Thesp, Glork) and note that two of them strongly thought MBL was scum. It is so obvious I'm being setup here it practically burns my eyes. On day 5, if I was scum, it wouldn't have been too hard to push for an MBL lynch, you were wanting one, CES was wanting one, and Glork showed clear signs of wanting one, especially after MBL distanced himself from CES with the third vote. I didn't do that because I'm not scum. It should also have been pretty obvious on day 5 that one of MBL/CES was going to be lynched (investigated innocents weren't going to be lynched and Glork and I were protown to most people). So MBL and CES distanced from each other knowing one was going down for sure.

MBL has kept as many options open as possible for himself targetswise. Yesterday he smeared both Glork and I as much as he possibly could, so he could have a case against either of us for a possible endgame. His cases based on circular logic were designed to make both Glork and I look as bad as possible, as Glork's already pointed out. There was no such smearing from either Glork or me yesterday. Glork had a very small period of suspicion of me, but then went back to being sure on MBL, and I didn't smear Glork at all because I found it likely he was town. Scum keep their options open, not narrow.

Being stubborn is my best quality.

Being stubborn is a negative quality. It blinds you.

[Patrick]

Incidentally, why do you think Glork was so certain MBL was scum? Has it occurred to you that, having been wrong all game, you should start listening to other people a bit?

[Mgm]

Incidentally, why do you think Glork was so certain MBL was scum?

No idea. I can do magic, but I can't do mindreading over a long distance.

If you listened to me a few days ago, MBL would've been dead and rotting already. It's your own fault he's still alive.

[Patrick]

No idea. I can do magic, but I can't do mindreading over a long distance.

Hint: He's a better scumhunter than you.

If you listened to me a few days ago, MBL would've been dead and rotting already. It's your own fault he's still alive.

This is insane, and almost reads like you're trying to shift the blame already for when I turn up town. The situation on day 5 was quite different, and I was more suspicious of CES, the godfather. You're right, I COULD probably have gotten MBL lynched on day 5. If I was scum, I would have won the game that way. But I didn't. That should tell you something.

[Mgm]

Mod: Can you prod MBL?

[Patrick]

MBL is probably still away. That's why Stoof pointed out that he'd sent his nightkill in advance.

Tom Hagen has already told me who he wants to kill overnight. And it is Glork. Here is his card...

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm back, sorry for the absence but it was my parents' 40th anniversary weekend. I skimmed and I see basically what I missed, so obviously

vote: Patrick

. Mgm, seven months of play all comes down to your decision now, and I hope the big picture is clear to you at this point. After I catch up on work I'll do a more thorough reread and see if there's anything significant remaining to address.

For starters though, well played, Patrick. You had me fooled well enough, and if it weren't for Adele investigating Mgm I think you guys probably would have won this game by now. To Glork, who's surely reading this as well, I would have lynched you over Patrick because your play just did not make sense to me as town play, and I suppose you and I will have to modify our playstyles or our reads in order to stop perpetually seeing each other as scum.

[Patrick]

Mgm, seven months of play all comes down to your decision now, and I hope the big picture is clear to you at this point.

I really wish it was

Btw, pretty much everyone can see you're scum apart from the one guy who actually matters. But yeah, you played well, and even kept nagging doubts in my mind for most of yesterday. You have had a slice of luck with Mgm being around though.