Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[WhemeStar]

SHOOT ME

[WhemeStar]

I was under the impression day 3 that you townread me but that is clearly not the case and I don't think I can convince you otherwise so idc anymore

[ScrewTheTells]

Also, making a note. Literally no one is trying to save Wheme but I note that STT and only STT is trying to specifically redirect to NM without saying Wheme is a bad shot. So I think STT is the third scum. Just have to figure out if the second one is peta or NM and I think it’s peta rn on this basis. Open to being swayed but tbh peta you’re the only one who’s gonna save yourself here

Well yeah, and from my POV I'm also concerned that no one else is doing this. To me it's clear that Not_mafia is a better shot so of course I'm gonna advocate for shooting him first. The problem with the associative read here regarding Wheme is that it only works if your premise is correct too, so if you're wrong about STT or Wheme this doesn't count for anything, it's just confirmation bias. You should not think this increases the likelihood of Wheme being scum by that much.

Compare that to Not_mafia: the reason I think Not_mafia is scum is mostly thanks to his anti-town position the whole game. I'm much more confident on that because it doesn't rely on associations, although there is also good evidence for that: he tried to stop the Norfolk wagon when it was still young, and then inexplicably jumped on the wagon to bus him yesterday. And note: this association only relies on getting WIFOM correct, since we know Norfolk-HUB is scum. It's way more reliable than thinking Wheme is scum because STT is trying to soft-save him, which I know is bullshit of course since I'm STT, but should still be uncertain for others too compared to the association with a flipped slot.

I don't have much time to post more atm but if you don't shoot in a few hours I have more to say.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I probably shoot tomorrow or the day after, depending on RL stuff.

You’re also mistaken about the chain of causation here. I scumread Wheme due to the gamestate, the fact I lost the plot, and the flips. It’s the most sensible conclusion because of who I had reads on, when I stopped getting legitimate reads, and what Wheme said where. I scumread you because everyone wants Wheme to go down but you would rather shoot elsewhere without disagreeing that Wheme is a good shot. This looks like trying to get a miselimination without looking too awful if I don’t listen to you.

You also should remember you have had not one single solitary correct read that you have made much noise about. I’m inclined to say “if STT is loud, STT is wrong.” That looks like scum when I take your playstyle into account. If you can be wrong you should be at your quietest, because your priors should say you have the lowest chance of being correct. Looks like the opposite from here: a quiet scumread on Duchess and a loud one on me. Quiet scumread on HUB and waffling on it, but loud as hell about Imperium.

You’ve been very loud about NM. Wonder what happens there?

Hey, unwnd, remember when I said to watch STTs results to read there? This is what I meant.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

That took forever to write and my hands hurt. Back later.

[WhemeStar]

MUSH HOW MUCH LONGER

[WhemeStar]

Make sure to post your read list before u shoot I will take it into consideration maybe

[WhemeStar]

I scumread you because everyone wants Wheme to go down but you would rather shoot elsewhere without disagreeing that Wheme is a good shot

HEY MAYBE A WAGON WITH 0 PUSHBACK ISNT A GOOD WAGON

[WhemeStar]

I feel like I’m so obv town so idc anymore

[WhemeStar]

Even if you Poe me/not mafia his slot is so much worst than mine

[WhemeStar]

It doesn’t matter anyways I’m convinced I will shoot 2 scum which makes my job easier after they are both dead

[Dunnstral]

I pretty much agree Mush my one question is where does Dunn fit in? Because he has read increasingly scummy to me

???

Go back and look at my pushes this game

[Dunnstral]

Then again Dunn’s dodged a lot of scrutiny. Then again also unwnd has and I’m pretty sure unwnd is green in this universe. Eh I’m happy with 2 caught scum really, the rest POEs to the finish no matter who holds the gun and how bad their reads are

I really haven't dodged anything, I've responded to everything directed at me

[petapan]

Also, making a note. Literally no one is trying to save Wheme but I note that STT and only STT is trying to specifically redirect to NM without saying Wheme is a bad shot. So I think STT is the third scum. Just have to figure out if the second one is peta or NM and I think it’s peta rn on this basis. Open to being swayed but tbh peta you’re the only one who’s gonna save yourself here

Oh I suppose it could also be Dunn but idk seems sort of unlikely in this gamestate rn?

He’d be my sub in for the peta/NM spot if they go green. Think STT always goes red rn

Then again Dunn’s dodged a lot of scrutiny. Then again also unwnd has and I’m pretty sure unwnd is green in this universe. Eh I’m happy with 2 caught scum really, the rest POEs to the finish no matter who holds the gun and how bad their reads are

eh i get why you think that but it's not me. can't really argue at this point thought that i'm super towny and should never be shot ever, i've said some dumb shit and if i have to be in the POE so be it. i think the POE as it is is good enough, sometimes it's a mistake to drive yourself crazy looking for someone deep; sometimes the game is just easy.

[SirCakez]

I pretty much agree Mush my one question is where does Dunn fit in? Because he has read increasingly scummy to me

???

Go back and look at my pushes this game

I can't remember literally any of them

[petapan]

oh, but also, i'm pretty sure at this point mafia have realized any possible path to victory goes through me and they need to get me shot, which explains wheme's abrupt turnaround on me where previously he gave absolutely no indication he was scumreading me

[WhemeStar]

oh, but also, i'm pretty sure at this point mafia have realized any possible path to victory goes through me and they need to get me shot, which explains wheme's abrupt turnaround on me where previously he gave absolutely no indication he was scumreading me

why would mafia ever need to go through you

also im pretty sure ive been vocal about folliowing imperiums hard meta read on you when imperium was very confident they were correct on you. imperium flipping green makes me want to sheep him even harder.

[WhemeStar]

I literally can't find any reason for me being scum i am confused. My wagon literally has 0 pushback which should be a huge red warning.

[petapan]

oh, but also, i'm pretty sure at this point mafia have realized any possible path to victory goes through me and they need to get me shot, which explains wheme's abrupt turnaround on me where previously he gave absolutely no indication he was scumreading me

why would mafia ever need to go through you

also im pretty sure ive been vocal about folliowing imperiums hard meta read on you when imperium was very confident they were correct on you. imperium flipping green makes me want to sheep him even harder.

because mafia need to get town killed to win the game, quit acting dumb, lmao

1262 is the only time you've mentioned sheeping their meta read? lazy as hell tbh, if you actually believed in that read you'd have spoken to them about it

I literally can't find any reason for me being scum i am confused. My wagon literally has 0 pushback which should be a huge red warning.

yeah just like how no one was pushing back on norfolk or duchess right

[MUSHSHAGANA]

oh, but also, i'm pretty sure at this point mafia have realized any possible path to victory goes through me and they need to get me shot, which explains wheme's abrupt turnaround on me where previously he gave absolutely no indication he was scumreading me

Compelling. I’m sold.

No, really. I’m able to actually parse the game again, and I see what you mean. If you’re not in the POE, the scum team has zero chance of even being able to try and sow doubt in the POE, let alone do better than that. If I’m calling me, Cakez and unwnd town 1000% of the time, that’s ALREADY a solve, but I’ve shown that I can be led to second guess. If I do, the game can end up in a 2v1 ELo finale, and those are decent scum odds: town only goes to ELo because scum has outdone them, and for no other reason.

If I have 4 names in the list, even second guessing isn’t a path to a scum win. At best, it lets them get the POE down to a 3v1, where they always lose anyway.

I’m sold. If I have doubts on that last scum, I’ll toss you the gun to clean the gamestate up for everyone, otherwise you’re in.

[WhemeStar]

Mush I have 0 idea on what you just said just shoot me so you can go confuse in dead thread

[SirCakez]

I don't even see the point in arguing more
Once Mush gets what she needs shoot and move on

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I’m not arguing. Got what I needed from petapan. I just need a keyboard to actually type up final thoughts... like I said, tomorrow or day after most likely.

[WhemeStar]

WHAT DID U GET FROM PETA BECAUSE UR DEAD TOMORROW OR DAY AFTER

[ScrewTheTells]

You also should remember you have had not one single solitary correct read that you have made much noise about. I’m inclined to say “if STT is loud, STT is wrong.” [...] Quiet scumread on HUB and waffling on it, but loud as hell about Imperium.

I think that's just a biased opinion looking for ghost signals in a lot of noise.

Because actually in my opinion I've been yelling at people to shoot my top 2 scum reads for ever. Basically everyone seemed to be in agreement about HUB so I didn't feel as much of a need, but does this look like being "quiet" at all??

That said I absolutely hate the Cakez shot. It would be "criminal", as you say. Instead, please shoot Not_mafia for all previously stated reasons. Or HUB who's jumping for joy at the possibility of you shooting Cakez. I'm pretty sure they're scum, I wouldn't even lose sleep over the decision if I were you.

I don't just yell loud about things I'm confident on, that's oversimplifying to an absurd degree. I yell loudly when doing so makes sense, such as when I'm BOTH confident AND people are doing the wrong thing and I might make a difference. I yell louder about Not_mafia now because for some god damned reason not enough people want him shot*, and currently the gunbearer puts Not_mafia farther back on the shooting list than Wheme and petapan, which I think is clearly an absolute mistake.

If you're lucky you hit scum anyway and I just look silly. I can live with that. That's a small cost when I consider there to be a huge difference between the likelihood of Not_mafia being scum and Wheme being scum. I think if you shoot the former our win chance goes up dramatically. Then you can consider shooting wheme, whatever. I just don't understand why you wouldn't want to first shoot the obvious scum who isn't even trying to hide.

*Okay so people said they want him shot, but are not calling for it as loudly as I am. It gives off the same vibe as Norfolk/HUB; a bunch of people stated they were likely scum, but took forever to actually manifest into concrete action with any real teeth. It just feels like some people call him scum and then act like he's not scum. I've lost track of how many people currently called Not_mafia scum, I don't have time to do a recount right now but my impression is almost everyone thinks so. Look, the last time you trusted a universal scum claim we got Norfolk. That's all that I wish for, I want that to happen again, before we try to gun down those more difficult scum.

---

Also for anyone who identifies as an Imperium sheep (not just talking to MUSH here), remember Imperium also said Not_mafia was probably scum. I don't recall Imperium wavering on that at all, I think they stated high confidence in their scum list at the end of the last day. So if you're going to use that reason to think Wheme and Peta are more likely scum, you must apply the exact same weight to Not_mafia at the same time. Either that or ignore Imperium's reads equally, if you pick and choose you're just double-counting your own opinion. You can have your own reads, I'm just saying don't fool yourself into thinking Imperium's reads count only where they overlap with yours. That's just rationalizing.

Again, I think when you add everything together, Not_mafia clearly wins the contest of "who is more likely to be scum". So that's who you're supposed to shoot to maximize your win chances. You might still be right about Wheme or peta! But you should shoot the most likely scum first.

If anyone wants to tell me why they think Not_mafia is NOT the current leader of "most likely scum", please by all means. Because if it ever gets to the point where I have the gun, and things are still like this, I'm just gonna shoot Not_mafia. If you think that would be a mistake, it would be better to try to convince me right now so I can also stop leading other people astray right now.