Newbie 1725: Innocents, Inc. [Game Over!]

[Loopdan]

Well we have 2 possibilities. We are playing with a {Mafia Roleblocker, Cop and Doctor}, or {VT, Cop and Goon}. There are 2 possibilities: MissTerry is really a Doctor, or she is scum who claimed PR her hide, because if she claimed VT she would have gotten lynched 100%. The second option is extremely unlikely, because:
-If one of the scums is Mafia Roleblocker, and MissTerry is scum, it would mean that she took an incredible gambit by claiming Doc yesterday. She would either be hoping for the real Doctor to not be around near the deadline. or hope to at least get him to reveal himself before she gets lynched. I don't think that a scum in their first game would make such an aggresive play.
-The other option is that both scums are Mafia Goons, in which case scum!Missy got extremely lucky by claiming Doctor, because she guessed that we are playing either in the setup "Row 2" or "Column B". Again, extremely unlikely.

So, in conclusion, as long as nobody counterclaims her, I think that she is pretty much confirmed.

Yesterday, it was 2 am for me when I made my last post. The deadline was at 10 am, so I decided to go sleep for 5 hours, come back, and have 3 hours to watch over the game. But it was too late, Blank got hammered. I am a bit torn on that wagon. I can see scum motivation behind it, but I can also see town motivation. Lynching is much better than no-lynching.

I disagree that Scum!MT claiming doc would be an incredible gambit. Caught scum love forcing a counterclaim from a PR.

[Loopdan]

Scum are in {peng, thor, shadow}.

I agree.

Shadow's "well that sucks" is pretty bad.

Yeah, but MT's response was worse, so not sure what to do with that.

[Loopdan]

Is there a good reason why we shouldn't just mass-claim to town-confirm MT? I know that seems unnecessary, as nobody has counterclaimed, but a forced mass-claim now disallows scum to counterclaim doc later when they are at L-1, right?

Is there any town-disadvantage to this idea?

[Loopdan]

If there's another doctor out there, they really need to claim now. As town, counter claiming when about to be hammered or in lylo is bad play. Tomorrow could be lylo, so today is the day to claim. There's of course the chance MT lucked out by fake-claiming doc in cop-VT, but by purely probabilistic reasoning I am very unlikely to vote for MT. I'm basically never certain enough in my reads to vote against that serious odds. Also mass-claiming is a waste of time, because we should just treat a doc CC later in the game as a quicklynch.

This.

I am going on record saying that any doc counterclaim that occurs more than 24 hours after this post will get an auto-vote from me. Counterclaim now or never.

[Loopdan]

@thor: I think last last twilight, even though the outcome wasn't positive, felt pretty genuine from those heavily involved. I believed loop's contemplation about whether to lynch MT, and I felt her reaction to the fakehammer was genuine, as were the reaction to MT's claim, and the attempt to WIFOM the night kill.

You're saying "genuine" a lot - did you get any actual reads from it?

What exactly do you think "genuine" means in the context of mafia?

[Loopdan]

@Penguin-- I don't really like MT's play either, especially Day 2. But an MT lynch is not happening anytime soon outside another player flipping doc. What do you make of Thor continuing to scum read me?

[Loopdan]

Creature was a weird choice for the mafia kill. He wasn't particularly townread by many people. I skimmed through his ISO and I don't really understand what made him a threat to the Mafia. If anything, he was scumreading Thor quite a bit. My only explanation is that either Thor got rid of him, or scum killed him so it would look bad on Thor. Killing the person who is scumreading you the most is something I think newbscum would do though, so I don't think that scum!Thor would make such a bad play.

Penguin, you don't look like a newbie to me at all. You aren't making any silly mistakes that newbies usually do.. I'm getting paranoid that I might be underestimating you.

Regarding your analysis of why Creature was NKed-- It is also possible that scum detected something in Creature's play that lead them to believe he was the cop. This could be breadcrumbs he left, or even just a style of play indicative of a PR. If this is the cause of his NK, then it is most likely the scum team has at least one experienced player.

[Loopdan]

This is why you should always go back and re-read the game...

Remember that time Thor voted Blank?

Spoiler: It was here

@Missy and Thor, why do you two disagree with a Paladin lynch?

Describe the case on him.
I don't think one exists.

I actively dislike the serrapaladin wagon.

What about the BlankFace wagon?

I would consider that a reasonable compromise - you like it, Loop hasn't touched it with a 10 foot pole. It could provide some info.

I actively dislike the serrapaladin wagon.

Then push something other than Loopdan.

You mean like Creature?
Also Loopdan?

Here;s a bit of advice - if you're town, push your scum reads. Don't random push emptiness.

Question,
If someone says their intent to hammer and the person at L-1 doesn't give a claim, can you still lynch them and how long should you wait before hammering?

Depends on your purpose for declaring the hammer intent - personally I'd maybe give them 12-24 hours after their initial non-claim post.
Not much point to not hammering them if they don't claim if you're otherwise bought into the wagon.

He doesn't look like an experienced town IC trying to solve the game.

This.

Says my two top scumreads...
Like, basically you're both being strategic/salty because I scumread you, and trying to act like I've failed to advance cases - yet oddly neither can even apparently see the case I made on the other.

Since I'm not going to be around again prior to deadline;

Vote: Blank

Do as you shall.
I will point out that there isn't actually a case on me besides Creature and Loop's harping about how I need to "do more" somehow - while apparently not finding multiple reads, multiple town and scum cases, and commenting on basically everything in the game as "enough" I suppose.
It's BS - but I've been lynched over it before, and probably will be lynched over it again - I will mock you in post game if it happens this time too.

Thor's vote on Blank doesn't work for town.

Creature had asked who was up for lynching Blank. Thor quoted this in the post above and said, "I would consider that a reasonable compromise." I talked about being OK with lynching Blank just a few posts prior in 912:

I'm ok with this setup. Thor and Blank are both acceptable lynches for me (although I'd prefer Thor), and I like the idea of shadow having to choose who between them to hammer. I'm not sure on his slot, so the choice and flip helps sort there, too.

In the post spoilered above where Thor votes Blank, he also calls Creature and me his top two scumreads. So Thor's two scumreads are open to lynching a player and he jumps on the wagon? How is that town? I get town jumping on a counter wagon of a townread if they themselves are at L-1, but Blank refused to put Thor at L-1 even after I pressured him to.

Thor was at L-2 and joined a wagon his two scum reads were openly OK lynching.

VOTE: Thor

[Loopdan]

That's actually a really nice catch. I have no idea how to read Thor judging by his day talk, and I don't think anyone here has. But from his point of view, if his top two scumreads, who has been tunneling on the entire game, are on the same wagon - shouldn't he think that Blank is town? Well, Creature wasn't as big of a scumread for Thor as Loop, but still. The only thing that can justify his vote is if he thought that Loop was bussing his scumpartner Blank. But I don't remember Thor saying that.

VOTE: Thor665

Just to be clarify, neither Creature or I were voting for Blank at the time of Thor's vote. But we were both very clear that we were OK with lynching Blank.

[Loopdan]

"Just to be clarify?" Me good English.

[Loopdan]

If there's another doctor out there, they really need to claim now. As town, counter claiming when about to be hammered or in lylo is bad play. Tomorrow could be lylo, so today is the day to claim. There's of course the chance MT lucked out by fake-claiming doc in cop-VT, but by purely probabilistic reasoning I am very unlikely to vote for MT. I'm basically never certain enough in my reads to vote against that serious odds. Also mass-claiming is a waste of time, because we should just treat a doc CC later in the game as a quicklynch.

This.

I am going on record saying that any doc counterclaim that occurs more than 24 hours after this post will get an auto-vote from me. Counterclaim now or never.

Also, if anybody is counterclaiming doc, you have 11 hours left.

[Loopdan]

Is this VCA PoE or some other type of PoE?

I have stronger town reads on the other slots as of now.

What's your take on 1196?

[Loopdan]

Regarding your analysis of why Creature was NKed-- It is also possible that scum detected something in Creature's play that lead them to believe he was the cop. This could be breadcrumbs he left, or even just a style of play indicative of a PR. If this is the cause of his NK, then it is most likely the scum team has at least one experienced player.

A few others have commented on this, so I tried to see if I could find anything Creature said that would tip off that he was a PR. One possible indicator is how he put MT at L-1 in post 1052, but after she claimed doc he immediately got off the wagon:

VOTE: Thor665

Damn, no more claims today, please.

If MT is really doc, then scum have a RB and this reaction might have tipped them off to the fact that Creature was cop. He didn't seem to question MT's claim like others did, as he knew scum making a doc claim was only 50% safe if they have a RB, without even considering a possible doc counterclaim.

I don't think the fact that Creature was the cop should necessarily lead us to think there must be a veteran player on the scum team.

[Loopdan]

@Shadow and @serrapaladin-- Please comment on 1196 and the wagon that has rapidly formed on Thor as a result of that post.

[Loopdan]

I don't think 1196 is as much of a smoking gun as it's made out to be, given that as his last post of the day, thor would be okay with a compromise if his top scumreads aren't working out, since the wagon was looking like the most viable with Peng and me also pushing it. 921 is off, given that you had then started pressuring Blank. I would be alright with lynching thor at this point, but peng's recent posts are making me feel pretty bad about her, too.

But why would Thor be OK with a compromise that involved him putting a player at L-1 that both his scumreads were OK with lynching? I had said only 9 posts before that I was OK with either a Blank or Thor lynch. Creature was openly asking who wanted to lynch Blank. How does town!Thor think we are both scum and then vote Blank?

And I didn't really stress this point before, but the fact that neither Creature nor I were on Blank's wagon when Thor put him at L-1 means we have to believe that town!Thor was setting up either of his scum-reads to hammer a player they both stated they were OK lynching.

The more I think about it, the more clear this is.

[Loopdan]

This is why you should always go back and re-read the game...

Remember that time Thor voted Blank?

Spoiler: It was here

@Missy and Thor, why do you two disagree with a Paladin lynch?

Describe the case on him.
I don't think one exists.

I actively dislike the serrapaladin wagon.

What about the BlankFace wagon?

I would consider that a reasonable compromise - you like it, Loop hasn't touched it with a 10 foot pole. It could provide some info.

I actively dislike the serrapaladin wagon.

Then push something other than Loopdan.

You mean like Creature?
Also Loopdan?

Here;s a bit of advice - if you're town, push your scum reads. Don't random push emptiness.

Question,
If someone says their intent to hammer and the person at L-1 doesn't give a claim, can you still lynch them and how long should you wait before hammering?

Depends on your purpose for declaring the hammer intent - personally I'd maybe give them 12-24 hours after their initial non-claim post.
Not much point to not hammering them if they don't claim if you're otherwise bought into the wagon.

He doesn't look like an experienced town IC trying to solve the game.

This.

Says my two top scumreads...
Like, basically you're both being strategic/salty because I scumread you, and trying to act like I've failed to advance cases - yet oddly neither can even apparently see the case I made on the other.

Since I'm not going to be around again prior to deadline;

Vote: Blank

Do as you shall.
I will point out that there isn't actually a case on me besides Creature and Loop's harping about how I need to "do more" somehow - while apparently not finding multiple reads, multiple town and scum cases, and commenting on basically everything in the game as "enough" I suppose.
It's BS - but I've been lynched over it before, and probably will be lynched over it again - I will mock you in post game if it happens this time too.

Thor's vote on Blank doesn't work for town.

Creature had asked who was up for lynching Blank. Thor quoted this in the post above and said, "I would consider that a reasonable compromise." I talked about being OK with lynching Blank just a few posts prior in 912:

I'm ok with this setup. Thor and Blank are both acceptable lynches for me (although I'd prefer Thor), and I like the idea of shadow having to choose who between them to hammer. I'm not sure on his slot, so the choice and flip helps sort there, too.

In the post spoilered above where Thor votes Blank, he also calls Creature and me his top two scumreads. So Thor's two scumreads are open to lynching a player and he jumps on the wagon? How is that town? I get town jumping on a counter wagon of a townread if they themselves are at L-1, but Blank refused to put Thor at L-1 even after I pressured him to.

Thor was at L-2 and joined a wagon his two scum reads were openly OK lynching.

VOTE: Thor

This is more of Loops usual bull-hooey.

My options, at the time of the vote I placed on Blank were;

1. Voting myself (a top wagon option with support)
2. Voting Serra (a town read)
3. Voting Blank (a scum-ish read)
4. Sitting voting Loop like a lump.

Loop will then say that because he and Creature supported #3 (ignoring that they also supported #1 and also #2 - because those two were lynch happy machines) that I should have...what...not placed a vote before going away till after deadline?

Everyone liking that post, is being blind and silly to how empty what Loop is saying actually is.
Hint: Vote Loop.

Stop lying. Those were not your only options. MT and Creature both had votes against them. Remember Creature? The guy you had a scumread on? You could have put another vote on him. Instead you put Blank at L-1, knowing your two "scumreads" were willing to lynch him.

Not sure why you brought up Serra as an option as that wagon had completely disappeared by the time you voted Blank.

You're just making stuff up now.

Thor put Blank at L-1 when his scumreads supported that lynch. He can make straw-man arguments and ad hominems for the rest of the game, but it won't change that fact.

[Loopdan]

And for whatever it's worth, Thor never indicated that Blank was a "scum-ish read" before the vote. Unless I missed something, Thor has no reads or interactions with Blank between 421 and 921.

[Loopdan]

Stop lying. Those were not your only options. MT and Creature both had votes against them. Remember Creature? The guy you had a scumread on? You could have put another vote on him. Instead you put Blank at L-1, knowing your two "scumreads" were willing to lynch him.

Yeah, that Creature wagon was going places.
And MT was a town read,

You just listed Serra as one of your possible choices saying he was a townread. Why leave off MT from your list? Oh yeah, I know, because you are just cherry picking info to try and weasel out of your scummy actions.

Thor put Blank at L-1 when his scumreads supported that lynch. He can make straw-man arguments and ad hominems for the rest of the game, but it won't change that fact.

By that logic, doesn't that mean when you voted Blank while I was voting him that you're just as scummy as me for your "tell"?
So, if your case is valid, that it is scummy to support a wagon a scumread is supporting - why did you vote Blank after I did?

Go read the circumstances of my Blank vote and try again. I voted Blank after our lynch target claimed doc and we were at risk of a no-lynch. Aside from that, there was a possibility Blank was your partner and you were bussing.

I guess you could have tried to use the bussing defense to answer my accusation, by saying you considered that only one of Creature and Loopdan was likely scum, but you missed your chance and went with whatever 1219 is.

[Loopdan]

And for whatever it's worth, Thor never indicated that Blank was a "scum-ish read" before the vote. Unless I missed something, Thor has no reads or interactions with Blank between 421 and 921.

I called him an acceptable compromise vote when asked about him, and had earlier in the game attacked his reads as illogical.
But you kind of need to ignore all those posts to push your scum agenda, don't you?

How am I ignoring those posts when I've literally linked to both of them in the post you are quoting?

There were 500 game posts between you "attacking his reads as illogical" and saying he was a compromise vote. I didn't see any indications of a "scum-ish read" in between those two. I'm not saying you couldn't have had him as a scummish read in your head, but it just seems convenient that you now label it as such without in-game evidence that that was your read at the time.

[Loopdan]

@Shadow and @serrapaladin-- Please comment on 1196 and the wagon that has rapidly formed on Thor as a result of that post.

Why did you want me and shadow to comment on this before thor himself?

I didn't have a preference for it being before Thor. But you both posted after 1196 without commenting on it, and I want to know where you and shadow stand.

[Loopdan]

In the post spoilered above where Thor votes Blank, he also calls Creature and me his top two scumreads. So Thor's two scumreads are open to lynching a player and he jumps on the wagon? How is that town? I get town jumping on a counter wagon of a townread if they themselves are at L-1, but Blank refused to put Thor at L-1 even after I pressured him to. Thor was at L-2 and joined a wagon his two scum reads were openly OK lynching.

This is a legit point, and I'd like to hear a response.

Peng, your take on Thor's response?

[Loopdan]

We still have a lot of time Day 2. I think we should use it, so I am not encouraging a Thor hammer yet.

Here is where I am at on each slot:

Hark

- Towny town. If he's scum he deserves to win for playing an outstanding game.

MT

- Taking her at her word that she's doc, as nobody counterclaimed.

serrapaladin

- Was very skeptical about this slot, but the more he posts the more town he looks. Wouldn't totally surprise me if he turned out scum, but it doesn't seem likely.

Shadow

- My gut says "scum," but I can't put my finger on why. It could be the red profile pic, or it could be how he disappeared at the end of Day 1 after the MT wagon got going.

Penguin

- Is scumreading MT and Hark (I think), which I find odd. I'll admit I haven't paid enough attention or thought a whole lot about this slot Day 2, but everyone else seems to find Penguin scummy. I am very interested in Penguin's response to the Thor wagon.

Thor

- Our Day 2 lynch.

Requesting all players post something like this. No need for walls or even linked posts. Just tell us where you are on all players. Transparency helps town.

[Loopdan]

Penguin, please explain how you went from this...

I made this point before. Blank has already claimed VT. We should not be forcing other claims at this point unless there is a clear target that is agreed upon.

Now Thor says he won't be back until after deadline, which means no claim from him. So do we lynch Thor with no claim or lynch Blank who already claimed VT? I'm leaning Blank based on that, but maybe that's Thor's strategy?

I think I've been misreading you.

To this...

In the post spoilered above where Thor votes Blank, he also calls Creature and me his top two scumreads. So Thor's two scumreads are open to lynching a player and he jumps on the wagon? How is that town? I get town jumping on a counter wagon of a townread if they themselves are at L-1, but Blank refused to put Thor at L-1 even after I pressured him to. Thor was at L-2 and joined a wagon his two scum reads were openly OK lynching.

This is a legit point, and I'd like to hear a response.

To this...

Peng, your take on Thor's response?

VOTE: LoopDan

Hark is town. Paladin is town. MT is town. Thor is town.

Mafia Shadow and Loop.

You haven't really said much to or about me lately. Explain your scum-read, please. And even more important, please explain your take on Thor's reaction to the votes placed on him.

[Loopdan]

@Shadow and @serrapaladin-- Please comment on 1196 and the wagon that has rapidly formed on Thor as a result of that post.

Why did you want me and shadow to comment on this before thor himself?

I didn't have a preference for it being before Thor. But you both posted after 1196 without commenting on it, and I want to know where you and shadow stand.

Nah, but asking us to comment on it comes with the implication you'll see it badly if we don't. It seems like you care more about our reaction than thor's, which in turn could suggest you care more about how convincing it is, rather than whether or not it's true.

Yes, I would see it badly if you didn't comment on the Thor wagon. I think its something that town should be interacting on, regardless of their read on Thor.

And yes, I am more interested in you and shadow's reaction to the Thor wagon, than Thor's reaction to the Thor wagon. Thor has been sorted in my mind. My reads on you and shadow are not as firm.

[Loopdan]

I wanted to hear a response. I did. Much more importantly:

Loop: What do you think of Shadow?

Shadow: What do you think of Loop?

I would encourage everyone to go back and read through their ISOs in reference to each other.

I just wrote about shadow in 1235.

[Loopdan]

I wanted to hear a response. I did. Much more importantly:

Loop: What do you think of Shadow?

Shadow: What do you think of Loop?

I would encourage everyone to go back and read through their ISOs in reference to each other.

This looks like terrible chainsaw defending.

I just posted thoughts on Shadow. What exactly are players supposed to be looking for in those ISO's? Why not tell them to include Draynth (who shadow replaced)? Why not say what you find scummy in the relationship between Loopdan and Shadow?

It looks like you are trying to divert attention from your scum-buddy being lynched, as you have literally given the other players nothing to justify your Loopdan vote. All you've done is say, "Here are two players I'm accusing of being scum. Please go read their ISO's and come up with some reasons for me."

When Thor flips scum, I think we now know who the next lynch is.

[Loopdan]

As town, that reads entirely too confident about your read of thor. Short of a guilty, you should always want to hear thor defend himself rather than me do it. The most any one of us should have responded was "I would like to hear thor's response to this", and I'm a bit annoyed at myself for not having done that, but I guess I was sick of arguing play style...

I am usually cautious with reads. I agree that there should always be room for doubt. Town should always be second-guessing and attempting to falsify their reads. But I've been through all that all game with Thor and its time to take the strongest read I've had all game and go with it.

[Loopdan]

I just wrote about shadow in 1235.

You posted about the color of his profile pic and the fact that he went to sleep.

What do you think about Shadow?

You conveniently left off where I said my gut says he is scum.

If Thor somehow flips town, Shadow is most likely scum by PoE.

[Loopdan]

Paladin jumping on PP like that is giving me cold feet

FUCK THIS PARANOIA

I'm going to look at thor-paladin interactions.

This is one reason why Thor is a better lynch today than Penguin.

[Loopdan]

I don't like how he alludes to the nightkill being indicative of an experienced scum team, as it feels like he is just trying to take the focus off himself.

Did you miss 1210, where I made a point of explaining why I no longer think we should operate under that premise?

[Loopdan]

1/6 setups where your PR claim is valid = 16.66667%>17%. Basic math.

Not that it matters, but your math is wrong. If MT was scum claiming doc, it is reasonable to assume that scum has a RB. The likelihood of scum with a RB guessing the setup right with a doc claim is actually 50%.

[Loopdan]

I think he's pushing Thor too hard based on his Blank vote knowing that a mislynch puts mafia inches from a win.

<<snip!>>

I thought my bringing up Thor's Blank vote was "a legit point"?

[Loopdan]

If scum have a RB, a doc claim has a 50% chance of being in the right set-up.

If scum does not have a RB, the doc claim has a 17% chance of the right set-up and a 33% chance of having a possible counterclaim.

Given the fact that we know there was a cop in this game and there is an un-countered doc claim, it is very likely that scum have a roleblocker.

If scum lack a RB, there is no way they can "choose a role they thought was outside of the setup", as all town-PRs are possibilities.

[Loopdan]

1/6 setups where your PR claim is valid = 16.66667%>17%. Basic math.

Not that it matters, but your math is wrong. If MT was scum claiming doc, it is reasonable to assume that scum has a RB. The likelihood of scum with a RB guessing the setup right with a doc claim is actually 50%.

Holy scumslip, Batman!

Nope.

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-Shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

[Loopdan]

Are you saying its a slip because I say its reasonable to assume a RB? We know there was a cop and there is no doc counter-claim. I'd say that's reasonable to assume a RB.

[Loopdan]

We aren't talking about odds for the newbie setup in general. We are talking odds of this particular game, of which we know there is a cop and an unclaimed doc.

[Loopdan]

*"uncounterclaimed doc"

[Loopdan]

I don't think MT is scum. I've said I am taking her claim at her word. I was trying to explain the probability of her as scum faking a claim and getting it right. Something that Penguin brought up by saying he no longer scumread her in part because there is only a 17% chance of her picking the right setup.

How is it a scum slip to say it is reasonable to assume we are in setup 2, which has already been openly discussed?

Am I missing something?

[Loopdan]

I didn't, because I'm not scum. Maybe my logic has a mistake? But I can't figure out that either.

[Loopdan]

Thank you for explaining that in a way that actually makes sense.

[Loopdan]

We still have a lot of time Day 2. I think we should use it, so I am not encouraging a Thor hammer yet.

Here is where I am at on each slot:

Hark

- Towny town. If he's scum he deserves to win for playing an outstanding game.

MT

- Taking her at her word that she's doc, as nobody counterclaimed.

serrapaladin

- Was very skeptical about this slot, but the more he posts the more town he looks. Wouldn't totally surprise me if he turned out scum, but it doesn't seem likely.

Shadow

- My gut says "scum," but I can't put my finger on why. It could be the red profile pic, or it could be how he disappeared at the end of Day 1 after the MT wagon got going.

Penguin

- Is scumreading MT and Hark (I think), which I find odd. I'll admit I haven't paid enough attention or thought a whole lot about this slot Day 2, but everyone else seems to find Penguin scummy. I am very interested in Penguin's response to the Thor wagon.

Thor

- Our Day 2 lynch.

Requesting all players post something like this. No need for walls or even linked posts. Just tell us where you are on all players. Transparency helps town.

My time zone is GMT +5.30, I am never online during that time as I'm sleeping. If I was I would never have blank get lynched.

But your last Day 1 post said...

I'll be here for an hour or so and then I should be around deadline.
Deadline is noon time here.

Please explain.

[Loopdan]

Thank you for explaining that in a way that actually makes sense.

So no comment about you slipping the info that your scumteam have an RB?

There are two ways to view what you called a scumslip:

1) I attempted to correct another player and made a mistake of my own.
2) I am scum and let something slip.

I admit the first. It took awhile for me to understand why what I wrote was incorrect, but I eventually came around to it. I'm not sure how to even defend against the second, given that I admit I was in error.

Town now has to decide which of these two options is more likely, and then weigh that against their overall read on me.

[Loopdan]

In other news, I feel like a right idiot for derailing thor's wagon in the run-up to deadline. Blank was at that point obvtown, and I shouldn't have been worried about him being a PR. Broadly, the point I was trying to make without saying it throughout the day is that thor is potentially useful enough if town that he should be investigated.

Ideally he would be night-killed, but that's rather unlikely at this point.

Emphasis on bolded

I was rereading the thread and I think this is a good point against Thor.
If scum wasn't Thor, why wouldn't scum kill him in night one? He is the most experienced player and is therefore would be the most dangerous town player. Also, him being NKed doesn't expose any of the real scum team while getting rid of their most dangerous opponent.
If that was confusing, basically town!thor would most probably get lynched N1 because he is the most experienced and dangerous adversary, but he wasn't, because scum can't NK themselves, this makes him scummy.

Pretty sure Thor was scumleaned by a majority of players on D1. Why would scum waste a NK on someone they though they could get lynched easily on D2 (which it appears is being pushed right now)?

Penguin has a point about scum leaving town players alive who look scummy.

Also, the fact that players (like MT) recognize that town!Thor would be a prime NK target is reason enough for a doc to try and protect him. So scum might remove him from their target list. WIFOM

I think Thor is scum, but I don't think that an IC surviving N1 is a good reason to scum-read him.

[Loopdan]

A Thor townflip would have almost condemned Loop...he said that himself. So, in addition to him being scumread and mafia thinking they could get him lynched D2, perhaps they worried a townflip would implicate one of more of them.

When did I say a Thor townflip condemns me? I've said scum!Thor is the strongest read I've had all game, but I've never said anything like, "Lynch Thor and if he flips town you can lynch me next!"

That was you who said that...

I wouldn't be so blatant if I was trying to shift off of my scumbuddy. Lynch Thor, but then lynch Loop when he flips town.

[Loopdan]

That's not how that works.

Why is this game turning into a series of logic puzzles?

[Loopdan]

I doubt both scum!thor and scum!peng would be pushing for a loop lynch yesterday.

Today, too.

Why do you doubt they would do that as scum? Wouldn't scum!Thor know that others wouldn't expect such blatant vote sheeping and use that to his advantage? That's a serious question, not me arguing against your point.

[Loopdan]

Does a "semi-VLA" preclude a player from being prodded? I know the game has slowed down a bit Day 2, but it's been almost three days since Thor posted.

[Loopdan]

I'm not 100% against lynching Thor; but, we need to understand that, if we get this one wrong, we lose unless the subsequent two are right.

As recent as 1254 you said if we lynch Thor he would flip town.

[Loopdan]

After 1254 or 1349?

[Loopdan]

@Penguin-- Who are your top town-reads and why? Have your townreads changed since this:

Peng, your take on Thor's response?

VOTE: LoopDan

Hark is town. Paladin is town. MT is town. Thor is town.

Mafia Shadow and Loop.

[Loopdan]

Thor returns after three days and finds nothing that has been posted in his absence is worth commenting on.

@Loop - describe any theory partners you see for me to be scum with. Because I see almost none, which seems pretty telling to me as to the chance for me to be scum, and I'd like to showcase how I think you're intentionally not assessing that.

I dont have a theory on who your partner is. I believe scum is most likely in Thor-Penguin-Shadow, with a smaller probability of paladin. With the experience in that group, I find it hard to eliminate pairings based on "the scum team wouldn't act that way."

[Loopdan]

Shadow explain please. What connection are you finding in these two pairs that you think is scummy?

Its got to do with the fact that Penguin is a bigger scum read because of his strange read progression and opportunistic cases in loop and me. Like the "Loop and Shadow" are buddies crap.

@Thor you should move to Penguin.

Is there anything other than Penguin looking scummiest that eliminates a Thor-paladin scumteam for you?

[Loopdan]

That made no sense, Hark. Yeah, Penguin looked desperate changing his vote, but you had a scumread on Thor, right? Nutso hammer. Absolutely anti-town, regardless of alignment. And if you are town, you just made tomorrow a lot more difficult for town to find scum, because there will be suspicion on you for that hammer.

I was a Vanilla Townie and I lost the game for town because of my stupidity. Hammered someone before two people even gave their opinions, and on the next day when it was MyLo I instantly threw down a vote on someone (who ended up being town), without waiting for anyone.

Deja Vu.

[Loopdan]

If Penguin flips town, and it looks like he will, Thor gets rope tomorrow.

Can we all just finally agree on this?

[Loopdan]

MT, he said this a few posts back.

Quite honestly, I'd have to rethink my reads and re-read some interactions with a new viewpoint.

I could see Thor/Shadow, both have been reticent lately, Shadow more so. Something still doesn't feel right about Loop, but him and Thor would have to be playing a really dangerous game. Still don't think it's impossible for MT to be scum, but if they pulled that off they deserve to win.

Point being, I don't have solid reads to give you on anyone, and I probably won't have time to re-read before twilight is over.

[Loopdan]

Penguin, please give us your quick analysis of the likelihood of Thor-Shadow or Thor-paladin.

[Loopdan]

In case I don't survive the night, this might be helpful for town-- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Loopdan]

Trying to get it updated before thread is locked.

[Loopdan]

In case I don't survive the night, this might be helpful for town-- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Current to the hammer.

[Loopdan]

What do the different colors mean?

Each player has a color. Bold/Italicized is confirmed town (at least to me).

Use this at your own risk.

[Loopdan]

If I'm NK'ed, lynch Thor. Then don't jump on an auto-lynch of Shadow. Serra should be considered. Take your time and check voting history and interactions.

MT is town. Hark is drunk-town.

[Loopdan]

2dumb4scum

loop is still town btw

That's all you have? Give us something before we are locked.

[Loopdan]

2dumb4scum

loop is still town btw

This implies Thor-shadow scumteam, right?

[Loopdan]

Hark, on re-read, I think he might have meant that to be directed at me. Just take a break, man.

[Loopdan]

Hark's vote was the hammer?
Can you post after you've been lynched?

Yes, he can post until the thread is locked for Night.

[Loopdan]

Day 3 is lynch Thor.

It's Day 4 that will be interesting.

[Loopdan]

I kind of hope MT is scum that got lucky and all of this has been pointless. Would be quite fitting.

I'm feeling alright about thor/shadow though.

Thor & shadow... I didn't like either slot Day 1.

But no turbo lynches. If I survive, I'm doing a game re-read tomorrow.

[Loopdan]

I kind of hope MT is scum that got lucky and all of this has been pointless. Would be quite fitting.

I'm feeling alright about thor/shadow though.

Thor & shadow... I didn't like either slot Day 1.

But no turbo lynches. If I survive, I'm doing a game re-read tomorrow.

I mixed that up. It was Thor & Lucca (paladin) that I didn't like Day 1.

[Loopdan]

Is there any part of my play you want to discuss now?

Not really. You've played pro-town, other than your failure to help me lynch Thor.

[Loopdan]

Also, not sure if it's AI, but your voting record seems too sure. Not a lot of jumping around, which seems to happen a lot from town in Newbie games.

[Loopdan]

Also can't shake the thought that you are the active scum partner tasked with buddying those who look town, while your partner lurks. Two scum lurkers seems odd for an experienced team.

So not a lot you can really answer, just things to think about on my re-read.

[Loopdan]

Why the fuck is everybody townreading me. Some people said why, others just sheeped on that and are treating me like a confirmed town. I dont like that

And this is worth thinking more about, considering it is admitted drunk-posting.

[Loopdan]

Maybe you, PP and Shadow, should've considered voting Thor665, not just act like "there's no case on Thor"

^This.

[Loopdan]

Why the fuck is everybody townreading me. Some people said why, others just sheeped on that and are treating me like a confirmed town. I dont like that

And this is worth thinking more about, considering it is admitted drunk-posting.

My last words before being NK'ed. There should have been some consideration of scum!Hark in Lylo.

[Loopdan]

Overall, well played scum. Hark, you had me in your pocket. Thor, you wily bastard-- you threw enough suspicion on me that others were scared to sheep my Thor vote.

I learned a lot and had fun. Would play with any of you again!