Mini 1057: Unsubsidized Mafia (Game Over!)

[DemonHybrid]

Understood, thanks for reading.

[DemonHybrid]

@DH - I put out a deadline there (Friday) and redtail didn't seem particularly spooked. If you're banking on single scum then his team was cooked and I would have expected a reaction.
Had zero reaction from Shotty - not even an "about time you did" post.

Thoughts?

What do you mean, spooked?

Lets say you were the last scum and you were in his position, what could you say/do?

[DemonHybrid]

He voted Equinox and made a weak case against him...that's his something.

Why is everything about shotty with you?

[DemonHybrid]

Oh, and I know what spooked means. I meant, "What do you mean, spooked?" as in "Why would red be spooked about this situation and your deadline announcement?"

If I was in his position, I'd stick with my guns and try not to make things worse. Equinox has yet to decide, yet you've committed to the fact that he's town based on the fact that he hasn't said anything with this dilemma on the table.

[DemonHybrid]

...because I think he's scum? Why is everything about redtail with you? This question is silly.

It's not. I'm looking at everything from all angles. I'm talking about others' play and not trying to frantically tie everything to redtail.

Your weird back and forth thing

You don't get the point. There is a debate between lynching shotty and lynching redtail today that is still going on. If you were scum redtail, would you really say anything and risk the scale being tipped towards you? The day could pretty much go 50/50.

redtail went after Far_Cry when *BOTH YOU AND I HAD CALLED FAR_CRY PROB TOWN* What sort of scum plan is that?

Actually, I never called FC "probably town" until post #714, a whole page after redtail did his case and vote.

And yes, I know where you're coming from, but I don't agree with you.

[DemonHybrid]

The point I'm trying to make is that for a period of a few days it looked like the "back and forth" was over and that I would hammer redtail.
I think it's odd that he did nothing during that time since the vote would not have gone his way so any rocking could not have made it worse.

But knowing that the decision is still on the table with Equinox still needing to decide, why say anything that they might regret? I could say the same thing about shotty, too.

Looking back he did do his vote after I'd made clear my own read on FC though and after shotty had (sorta awkwardly) done the same. So the last scum is going to try and lynch someone who has two players saying they wouldn't lynch him and/or that he is town?

One person. He can't exactly back out of his vote. He was trying to convince the both of us to lynch FC, I'm sure.

You forget that scum can and will do whatever they want.

[DemonHybrid]

Shotty, IMO, is just as likely to be lynched today as redtail is. Do you think redtail is going to stay on Equinox if Equinox decides to vote shotty (especially when the day is either him or shotty's lynch)?

Also, you're saying yourself that it has equal motivation regardless of affiliation, so why did you bring it up?

[DemonHybrid]

I'm wondering the same thing.

redtail and shotty are in the same boat. Same situation. Everything that applies to redtail applies to shotty and vice versa, the amount of votes do not matter.

[DemonHybrid]

Rephrase that, I didn't catch it.

[DemonHybrid]

Shotty, we have 11 people total. How likely do you think 3 scum and 8 townies would be?

Two mislynches and game lose.

Not much sense made at all.

[DemonHybrid]

Three mislynches. My brain isn't working today.

[DemonHybrid]

Just Shotty then.

[DemonHybrid]

I claim towny, because it says towny in the PM, not VT.

If you are seriously scum, I will have a good amount of egg on my face. I really don't see any scum motivation for anything that you're doing.

Equinox, are you coming to any conclusions?

[DemonHybrid]

Would you like to help me with Redtail then? Whoever is alive can sort out Day 5 when that bridge comes.

If I die, do not make a quick irrational decision. I have a feeling who might be scum if Red isn't.

[DemonHybrid]

-_-

I'm not voting shotty, sorry. I know redtail will, however.

[DemonHybrid]

Probably not. See Equinox's post.

[DemonHybrid]

Shotty is so incredibly unbelievably town and he doesn't need to die to help our cause.

[DemonHybrid]

You've never seen a scum say they're willing to die to help town?

Shotty's not that experienced or ballsy.

[DemonHybrid]

Do. Not. Selfhammer.

[DemonHybrid]

Self hammering as town NEVER HELPS. Ever. No matter the situation. Please stick it out. We need to find another situation, putting us in a 3-man LyLo IF that's the case at all will make things 500 times worse, and I don't know what Equinox is thinking.

[DemonHybrid]

Sotty or Shotty?

[DemonHybrid]

Saporo is dead....

[DemonHybrid]

Seriously? We're doing this confusion bullshit again?

[DemonHybrid]

I'm thinking either Redtail or Thor at this point.

[DemonHybrid]

Thor was the person who I thought probably-to-must be scum if Redtail is not. I cannot logically see Shotty or Equinox as scum, and if either are, I will slam my head into my desk.

So, I want to give something a try here.

Unvote, Vote: Thor

Equinox, what do you think about a Thor lynch?

[DemonHybrid]

Also, Equinox, no. I don't know your stance on Thor, because you haven't mentioned what you thought his alignment was yet.

[DemonHybrid]

That wasn't my case at all.

[DemonHybrid]

I didn't vote you because Shotty convinced you, I voted you because there's absolutely no way I can find shotty and Equinox as scum, and if Redtail isn't going to be today's lynch, then I don't mind that you are.

What's it matter to you? Like Equinox brought up with really heavy evidence, there is a great chance that this is a 2 scum game. Redtail grilled singer moderately hard anyway. Nhammen basically ONLY argued with her, and I don't see your motivation for wanting his lynch in the first place.

Plus, I want redtail to choose who dies today. This is critical.

[DemonHybrid]

Do you not trust him?

I don't want him to have a one-outer here. The information for what he chooses will be invaluable.

[DemonHybrid]

Yes.

If we are not in LyLo, don't you think that information is by far WAY more valuable then having someone like you get killed?

[DemonHybrid]

Please re-vote Thor. I'll explain my results tomorrow after Redtail chooses between you and Thor.

Either way, I'm pretty sure we've caught scum, but I need you to re-vote him to let him choose.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm not moving my vote, period.

That's fine. I'm still waiting for Shotty to change his vote back; I'd really like Redtail to make the decision tonight and I think that no matter what he chooses, we'll find scum in someone, whether it be him, Thor or even Shotty, though I doubt it. I have my methods.

[DemonHybrid]

YES.

We're letting a scummy player make a key decision. How can you not find that valuable? It's better than lynching you AND thinking you're town at the same time.

[DemonHybrid]

Let me see if I can put this in a way that you'd understand.

Scenario 1: Redtail has a choice between his own survival and lynching you. What does he choose, and why?

Scenario 2: Redtail has a choice between lynching Thor or lynching you. What does he choose, and why?

[DemonHybrid]

Then it should be fine for you, since you think he's town, it shouldn't be such a concern.

[DemonHybrid]

I get information, you get piece of mind knowing that town (in your opinion) is making the choice.

No one is losing here, shotty.

[DemonHybrid]

*peace of mind.

And I wondered why I lost so many spelling bees first round in middle school...

[DemonHybrid]

I read Day-1,
DH you look so scummy right now

Why, because I want someone who looks scummy to me to make a decision not based off of his own interests?

[DemonHybrid]

From my point of view, DemonHybrid, you're fighting pretty hard to go against a policy lynch that I feel is pro-town; a potential 3p LyLo with someone like that is infinitely harder than a 3p LyLo with three of {DemonHybrid, Equinox, redtail896, Thor665}. I'm starting to wonder what your motivations are for keeping drmyshottyizsik around.

A policy lynch at this stage is never never never a good thing.

I'm a little frustrated that Thor was hammered too early...but there's nothing we can do about it now =\

[DemonHybrid]

It was a bad lynch. I didn't mean for it to turn out that way.

Shotty, can't you just once look at the votecounts before you take that sort of leap?

[DemonHybrid]

Because Thor turned out to be town and there was no choice made by redtail. What do we know about redtail going into 3 man LyLo now? Nothing.

[DemonHybrid]

You'd be wrong, Equinox. Just saying that now before the day ends and I do a counter-analysis.

[DemonHybrid]

EBWOP: All I ask is that you not auto-vote me Day 5, or you will lose the game for town.

[DemonHybrid]

On Day 1, page 7, DemonHybrid claimed vanilla townie while at L-2. A number of you noticed how odd this was, yet you still wrote it off as a town tell. Nope! While I can understand town fearing a quick lynch, claiming at L-2 was an extreme move, and as I understand the situation at the time, he wasn't in real danger of being lynched. In addition, DemonHybrid had at least 2.4 months of experience on-site at the time of game start, with much of that experience outside of the Newbie Queue; he should have known how damaging unprovoked vanilla claims were to town. The only reason I can see him doing that is to survive.

You have not a clue how many dumb towns quick-hammer people without a claim, do you? I can come up with quite a few games and I always claim L-2 when I can when on Day 1. And yes, I claimed to survive, duh. Why else would anyone claim? Try to tell me how that has more scum motivation than town.

On Day 1, when singersigner presented her "case" against Thor665, DemonHybrid leaped on it. "Scum use sarcasm" is weaksauce. Now, some of you folks say scum don't sheep other scum. They, in fact, do. (For those on the go: Me=Weird, mafia goon, presented a case against a townie. Oso, mafia goon, immediately sheeped Me=Weird's case. Oso got lynched. Me=Weird survived to endgame on the logic that scum don't sheep other scum.)

And you missed the ball just like everyone else did. Thor was voted by me not BECAUSE he was sarcastic, but because his sarcasm was a supplement to otherwise scummy behavior.

Look at singersigner on Day 1, particularly when she's about to go down. She starts voting for DemonHybrid for something at once both perfectly reasonable yet potentially scummy: defending Devon's decision to replace out. That, there, defines distancing. What singersigner did to Thor665 was not distancing.

And...you're going to actually blame me for her terrible argument against me for defending Devon? Please explain this and why you think that I'm in on that argument in more detail.

New thing I've reconsidered: jimfinn. You did wonder... Why was he so confident about jimfinn on such flimsy evidence? Gut, maybe. That I can understand. What I do NOT understand is how often he waved "jimfinn was town; ya should've listened to me, I was right!" in everyone's faces following that lynch.

Dude...I was forced into that argument due to ThAdmiral's vote on me. I did nothing to gloat about jimfinn's town flip, and you know that. Terrible point.

DemonHybrid refused to have drmyshottyizsik lynched and put his foot down. This may be my bias talking, but he was about to risk a LyLo by keeping someone known to be a loose cannon even in LyLo (sorry, dude), and that decision to keep someone like that around for LyLo is, in my view, anti-town. Scum LOVE having loose cannons in LyLo. No matter what you guys say, I still think a policy lynch was possible on Day 4 without significant damage to town (in this situation, anyway).

Take a look at shotty's persistence to oppose anything but his death. He took his vote off of Thor and put it onto me. Do you realize how adamant he was about accepting your plan to have him killed and do you think scum would really do that?

Shotty is the most town out of any of you people.

I do not lynch people who I believe is pro-town

. Your persistence to lynch shotty even though you had a pro-town read on him is

Anti

-town.

I thought about the whole "get a reaction out of redtail896" thing today. I can understand doing it earlier in the game, when there are more suspects to be had. What I don't get is why DemonHybrid needs it so much today when he will have simply solved the game tomorrow. If he survives to LyLo, he has one strong town read (drmyshottyizsik or Equinox), so it's going to be glaringly obvious who the scum is. It's simply a matter of convincing drmyshottyizsik/Equinox, and that can be done with old evidence.

I don't get this. It doesn't work earlier in the game because there are more people to lurk around and not make decisions; that's putting too many eggs in one basket. By having Redtail making a non-selfish decision, it brings a TON of information about everyone to light based on his decision, the flip and the nightkill, and you/shotty fucked it up.

Do not auto-vote me tomorrow if you are town. I guarantee you will be hanging your head in shame for quite a while.

[DemonHybrid]

You two are just super nervous town.

Equinox's case is absolutely ridiculous. I'm not sure I trust him any longer.

Shotty is fine.

[DemonHybrid]

I've seen quick hammers on page 2. It doesn't change the fact that you were more nervous than one would usually expect from a townie. Links where you've done this before would be great, yes.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2422774

My very first game.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p2362592

Another.

Neither were L-1.

Scum have more motivation than town to survive, obviously. Not to mention I don't see town claiming at L-2 in a nervous fit every day; maybe it's because I'm hanging around a whole different crowd.

I know I'm town. I'm not going to sit there and be all "awwwwwww guess I'm gonna dieeeee nowwww" when I know that I can do what I can as a VT to help lynch scum. One less townie is a huge detriment to the game.

All right. I'll go and look for this additional scummy behavior. Since you feel sarcasm was supplemental, I feel I have to ask: Why would scum be more likely to use sarcasm than town? What about Thor665's style of sarcasm made it pro-scum/anti-town?

It's a personal experience thing. Sarcasm can swing either way, but like I said, you need the townish/scummish play behind the sarcasm to give it the scum/town motivation. It depends on the context and is very situational.

Sorry. I'm hunting connections here, and that stood out to me the first time I read the game. Whether you were "in" on it or not is irrelevant; scum don't plan things like that. My line of thought here was singersigner was trying pretty hard to draw connections to people -- and everyone else to whom she's tried doing so is dead. (Now that I think about it, she didn't mention redtail896. Remind me to look at that.)

And they were all town. So what is your point?

And by the way: Look at redtail.

I acknowledge that he's trying to improve. He has, actually. He's had nice flashes of insight here and there today. Still, it's not enough for me to trust him in LyLo, not after that stunt he pulled with suspecting saporovirus.

I support policy lynches. Forever.

A townie is a townie. We cannot afford to lose him at this stage, no matter how much of a loose cannon he is. I never meant for either Thor or Shotty to be lynched explicitly, I wanted redtail to choose.

I hate policy lynches so much, especially at this stage of the game. I happen to put my trust in shotty this time.

However, shotty, you need to agree to NOT VOTE until things have settled down during Day 5 and use some really hardcore analysis. Quickvotes lose so many games for town.

What information? It's 3p LyLo. It's you, the town dude who scum would never kill, and... the scum. I thought you were doing this so you could supplement a later case, which I can understand, but when I read your posts, I got the impression you were doing this for your own personal reads, which was an unnecessary step. If it's a {DemonHybrid, drmyshottyizsik/Equinox, redtail896} LyLo, it would be plainly obvious; therefore, you're not doing this to personally know more about redtail896. That made me wonder why you made it out to be a personal quest for information.

Having redtail choose would do wonders for everyone. Not only would we have a flip that COULD be scum if Redtail isn't, but we get to see non-selfish motivations behind his planning and use that to either incriminate or absolve him, then look toward others/more closely towards him if necessary. It's information for us all, not just me, and I would come out with my ideas and analysis as soon as Day 5 is here.

By the way, I'm assuming that everyone here that isn't Thor will be alive; Scum could kill anyone and still make the situation really awkward and tense for everyone, so I'm just speaking in a general sense.

Hmm... Interesting.

What is interesting about that? That case is ridiculous and something scum would love to post before going into the final day.

Scum is between Redtail and Equinox. Not sure who, since there's a big question mark on Redtail now.

[DemonHybrid]

Also, you didn't comment on this:

Dude...I was forced into that argument due to ThAdmiral's vote on me. I did nothing to gloat about jimfinn's town flip, and you know that. Terrible point.

How now, brown cow?

[DemonHybrid]

What??

[DemonHybrid]

Well then.....good game =). Nearly every one of my reads were right; the win is exactly what I need.

Thadmiral is the only person who's play I had a problem with. Never pull that high noon bet stunt again...also, sometimes people are just right on their reads. Otherwise, good play.

I wonder where redtail is...

[DemonHybrid]

Very simple setup, by the way. Enjoyable and non-complicated.

[DemonHybrid]

It's okay, Equinox, I still love you.

[DemonHybrid]

If you hadn't posted that case, Equinox, I wouldn'tve suspected you; I was 90% sure Redtail was the last scum if Thor wasn't.

[DemonHybrid]

Well, your lynch was a mistake, honestly; Although I thought it was a "redtail or Thor" kind of deal, I DID mean for Redtail to pick. Would have given us a wealth of information. If he had picked shotty and gave a stupid reason, I probably would have lynched him unfortunately. A good pro-town reason would have undoubtedly made me turn the guns on you.

It was a tricky situation and you did the best you could with it.

[DemonHybrid]

Give it up, shotty. Thor was game mvp regardless whether he lost or not. You did okay.