Mini 761 - Game Over

[Zachrulez]

We should probably have a consensus for who we want to go first.

So whoever most of us want to claim first, will claim first, and then from there that person picks the next person to claim.

We already have your claim Kise so you don't need to claim, and I would suggest that Ryan claim first.

Sound off with your opinion on who should claim first, and we can get this going.

[Zachrulez]

Ryan also looks a bit fishy from what I saw yesterday. He had his vote on, but like Alexhans he seemed to be looking for excuses to move his vote, and was even throwing pressure on me along with Alexhans to vote for Steph.

Let's see, I was never looking for excuses to change my vote. Nothing during the entire course of the day wanted me to change my vote from Lester. If you recall, I was actually confronting individuals who WEREN'T voting Lester/dramonic, because the evidence was soo damning. So your claim about looking for excuses is complete BS. I even mentioned I had no reason to vote for Zach when you were brought up in conversation. I never changed my vote, and nothing warranted a vote change, and I was never looking for excuses to move my vote.
The issue I had with you was that your main posting content described Steph's scumminess, but wasn't followed with a vote (much like Alex said). You then said you have your vote on who you think is scummy, which is sufficient. I was just confused on why you had no vote on Steph given that the majority of your posts were about Steph.

Fair enough I suppose. I still think my points are valid concerns, but I have given the matter more thought and have realized that the main reason I find you suspicious is because of the way Hoopla reacted to you vs Alexhans. This is not the right way to scumhunt as I'm kinda going in the direction of her contradiction and not looking at the contradiction itself.

So with that in mind, I've changed my mind, I would like to see Hoopla claim first, and that's 3 of us so go ahead and claim Hoopla.

[Zachrulez]

What are the good arguments on each side for Steph, in your opinion?

The short of this would be.

Pro-scum argument: He distracted from Dramonic's lynch.

Pro-town argument: His attacks on me have consisted of poor logic that could have very easily backfired on him. This kind of play isn't something I would find optimal for scum. Considering that there were probably easier ways to get a mislynch in the last day phase, I am having a tough time trying to find a decent scum motivation for Steph's play in trying to get me lynched yesterday.

I do find the distracting from the Dramonic lynch to be scummy, but I have found it challenging to try to analyze his play in a way that makes sense as a whole. Confused/paranoid townie is the best explanation for that.

And thus the back and forth.

[Zachrulez]

Who do you want to claim next?

[Zachrulez]

Oops, I didn't know we were popcorning, sounds okay to me. Zach you're up buddy.

Popcorning seems like the best way to go with massclaims in general.

Anyway, I'm just a vanilla townie.

Ryan's up next. Then Stephoscope. (He'll be the only one left at that point.)

[Zachrulez]

Hoopla, you were on a stranger's laptop that you had to beg to use so that you could quickly post here, but you still made a point to change your birthday to June 1st?

All, please don't turn this into another "plenty" issue (wow, that was a long time ago)...if I decide Hoopla is scummy, I'll make sure you all know it...but this birthday thing is just weird and I would like an explanation.

This might provide an explanation for that.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... start=1281

[Zachrulez]

What does "popcorning" mean?

The basics of it are that the players come to a consensus on who should claim first. That person claims, and then once they claim, they get to pick the next person to claim.

That's popcorning.

[Zachrulez]

Well... this is going to be interesting.

In other news, I'm convinced Hoopla is scum and should be the lynch today.

[Zachrulez]

I'll have to go back and re-read day 3 for perspective on exactly what happened around your roleclaim.

I'm actually quite curious to hear what Stephoscope has to say, and who he suspects.

[Zachrulez]

I'm having a hard time seeing the balance in a 2 scum + 1 sk

That kind of setup seems like it would be very swingy to me. I see too much potential for the town to win a lot quicker than mafia in general in this kind of setup.

With the claimed and revealed power roles we have, 3 scum makes sense to me from a balance perspective.

[Zachrulez]

Thank fuck for that, hurry up and flip so we can get on with this game. Sorry for my absence.

Really, that's all you have to say?

Unfortunately where I am now, I can't devote much to this. I don't want to replace out unless you guys think it will be better for the game. What I will say from the last two/three pages is alexhans is a decent chance for scum if dramonic flips scum.

Look at the way he tries to find an out for an alternate lynch on either Jazz or me, yet still feigns suspicion for dramonic in case he can't keep him alive. I can't post an indepth analysis as to why this looks likely (and granted this hinges on dramonic's flip) but this is where I'm at. I still think ryan looks quite pro-town - Zach and Steph are neutral but I don't think they're likely to be scum together.

This day didn't need to linger for so long, dramonic was pretty damn scummy. Again, if he flips scum, I'm going to be questioning those trying to keep him alive or at least distract from it.

We need to stop assuming certain roles will or won't be in the set-up. I'm in favor of massclaim as we're possibly in lylo, depending on whether we think we have an SK/extra scum or not.

I think the mafia and Kise both targetted alexhans last night. I think alexhans was looking quite protown - he was generally keen to start conversation and question players. I can see why mafia would see him as a viable NK. I still think Jazz/Kise is a vig/SK and should not be the priority lynch today, hitting mafia is far more important.

I'm kinda narrowed down to Steph and Zach based on my reads on ryan and Kise - depending on the size of the scum team I'd say bussing is possible in this instance. I want to massclaim first though.

Did anyone else notice how Hoopla did a 180, saying Alexhans was scummy in twilight, and then calling his actions protown today?

[Zachrulez]

I'm actually quite curious to hear what Stephoscope has to say, and who he suspects.

This is what I'm waiting on.

[Zachrulez]

Bah, Simulpost, reading Steph's post now ^ _ ^

[Zachrulez]

I think there is a real case to be made against Hoopla today.

The strongest evidence against her, which I have never forgotten about all game, is referenced back in my post 374, back when AshKetchummm had her role. Ash started acting *really weird*, and now that we know LesterGroans (later dramonic) was scum, look how odd it is that Ash was apparently answering questions before they were asked (note posts 333 and 334...and then try to tell me who else Ash could have been "answering" in 333). Looks like evidence of nighttalking.

I also remember how she had Zach as a part of her top two scum combos, but then voted for Lester anyway. That didn't make sense to me...but maybe they'd agreed it was bussing time at that point with all innocents killed so far.

And while I'm the one who originally asked about game balance today, which I do think it's the right time to discuss, I'm not liking how Hoopla's quickly saying that I'm scum seemingly based only on her own guesses about the game setup. She may be kind of backed into a corner.

So Steph, since a lot of this strong evidence against Hoopla/Ash is from much earlier in the game, what prompted you to pursue me instead on day 3?

[Zachrulez]

I'm trying to think if there's anything else I want from you before I hammer Steph.

I'm trying to determine if your suspicion of me was genuine or not.

[Zachrulez]

Also has Hoopla addressed my post where I pointed out her 180 on Alexhans, or has she just craftily tried to make it about who must be scum based on the setup?

I just want to make sure I didn't miss that in any of what I read of her posts.

[Zachrulez]

So do you still think I'm scum or not?

[Zachrulez]

Hoopla, if you have anything pressing to say, you better do it now.

[Zachrulez]

EBWOP : Hoopla, if you have anything pressing to say, you better say it now.

I'm giving Hoopla about 2 and a half hours or so to respond (until I get home from work.) and then I'm hammering.

[Zachrulez]

Alright, it's hammer time.

Vote: Hoopla

[Zachrulez]

Well at least I can take comfort in the fact that the game was effectively over when Kise voted.

I don't know what more we could have done, Hoopla looked so obv scummy. Bah.

[Zachrulez]

I will note that Steph's case on Hoopla was well played. That stuff he pointed out by Ash DID look like day talk. (Probably set up by Lester)

Though it honestly didn't factor much into my decision. Hoopla's play was uber scummy.

I regret defending Stephoscope on day 1, and even day 2... but I think I'm only saying that cause I now know he's scum. I really don't think any of his play was scummy the first two days... his day 3 play may well have been more telling, along with the fact that it was just rubbing me wrong how all his cases just happened to be on townies.

I also regret that we didn't get Lester lynched sooner... but with Panzer doing what he did, that probably wasn't possible. I maintain that the only reason I voted Panzer was because of that gambit. If he had claimed vanilla like he should have, I would have done everything in my power to prevent that lynch from happening because I didn't think it was a good one until the claim. (I only asked in case there was a serious threat to a potential power role.)

This game was hurt badly by scummy townies. Don't feel too bad Alex, against three scummy townies, there wasn't really that much more that we could have done.

Kise, you shouldn't have vigged Alex, that could have lost us the game outright. The speculation about the vig kill WAS also a null tell. Hoopla, myself, and Steph all asked about it, and only Steph was scum, which proves my point. ^ _ ^

Also something I find interesting is that on day 3, with the bandwagon on Dramonic building, Stephoscope tried to build a bandwagon on me, and it was COMPLETELY scumridden... HA! That's just crazy.

I'm dying from morbid curiosity about what Jazz had for a case on Steph. I wish she would have shared it, but I don't know if it would have actually changed anything... oh well.

[Zachrulez]

I was also REALLY surprised that my promise to help lynch myself if Panzerjager flipped town never came up again. That was why I later said something about how Panzerjager's play probably lost the game for the town...even though obviously his suspicions were correct.

I didn't even think Panzerjager WOULD flip town...I figured him to be an SK.

You got away with this because Panzer LIED. He was completely discredited even before his flip.

This is why you don't lie about your role as town.

[Zachrulez]

It's really eerie reading about you guys considering a kill on me on night 2... ^ _ ^

[Zachrulez]

I was also REALLY surprised that my promise to help lynch myself if Panzerjager flipped town never came up again. That was why I later said something about how Panzerjager's play probably lost the game for the town...even though obviously his suspicions were correct.

I didn't even think Panzerjager WOULD flip town...I figured him to be an SK.

You got away with this because Panzer LIED. He was completely discredited even before his flip.

This is why you don't lie about your role as town.

D2 is why you don't lynch uncountered power role claims.

I feel absolutely terrible about asking Panzer to claim now, I feel like I somehow encouraged that play

[Zachrulez]

As I look at the QT, it's interesting to see that the expended a a lot of effort to find a cop that didn't exist.

[Zachrulez]

Which makes me wish that Hoopla had played better toward the end. Ryan's cop claim was fishy at best.

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, I think I was a bit taken by how much I liked your cases Steph.

I hate you now. Damn you for fooling me in the early game. Damn you to hell.

I really didn't start suspecting you until it was too late.

[Zachrulez]

I would have played in much the same way if I were town--I would have brought up the "plenty" thing, I would have brought up the birthday thing. I really do believe that "easy lynches" are often bad, and that players need to look for subtleties like the one I just posted. Of course, once scummy Wall-E and Panzer flipped town, and once I started arguing that scumtells weren't actually scumtells, that made me bolder in trying to save obvscum Lester/dramonic and basically acting scummy myself

Primarily the reason I started to suspect you.

The easy lynches thing is a tough call. Sometimes you have to lynch people because their behavior is scummy, but there are players that do the same scummy actions all the time, and it's kind of a tough call to call them simply anti-town vs scummy. (And frustrating that you even have to make that call in the first place.)

I wasn't a big fan of all the twilight we had, I felt it presented too much of an oppurtunity for scum to find contradictions made by townies vs their reactions to the night actions the next day. As it turns out Hoopla fell victim to this by voicing suspicion of Alexhans in Twilight (a feeling I shared.) and then flipping on this position the next day after he died, and what looked like in my eyes her freezing up when I noticed the contradiction on that matter. This was presicely why I tried to say as little as possible during twilight. I wanted to give the scum as little information as possible, and even less to use against me directly when they did their night actions.

But yeah, I think that would be another lesson, be careful what you say during twilight, and if you suspected someone that died and flipped town, don't be afraid to fess up and admit you were wrong, that was Hoopla's downfall.

Though on the other hand, had twilight not been an issue at all, I think the game could have gone in a very different direction, cause I felt Hoopla was town until I noticed she contradicted herself in a really scummy way.

[Zachrulez]

Which makes me wish that Hoopla had played better toward the end. Ryan's cop claim was fishy at best.

I flip-flopped on a lot of my suspicions - when my views change on someone I post them. I've been bit too many times committing to a case, getting a bad feeling about it, and being paranoid about changing my mind thinking I'll look scummy. I think if I had more time I could have backed myself up better, but overall don't fault my play. You were all very hasty to lynch me which is a shame.

Alex, I don't remember using the term 'obv' for anything. Thanks for playing everyone, I had fun!

There were a lot of concerns about your change in position and you talked about the game setup instead, and then you said you were going to be taking a couple of days away without ever addressing the points.

My vote wasn't needed anyway, a hammer from Ryan would have won the game for scum.

[Zachrulez]

And personally, I wouldn't have minded if you had admitted that you thought Alexhans was scummy and just realized you were wrong. I myself felt the same way about him as you did during twilight. (I just didn't voice it as actively as you obviously.)

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, that slipped my mind in the heat of the moment.

KISE VIGGED ALEXHANS FOR GOD SAKE!

We wouldn't have faulted you for admitting Alexhans was scummy. (Steph and Ryan would probably try though )

[Zachrulez]

Post-Game Vote: Kise

Oh wait... I'm dead... CRAP!

[Zachrulez]

Introducing other possibilities and looking at all options is always necessary in lylo. I don't know why people wouldn't want to stop and try and break the set-up or at least analyse it in depth enough to come to a statistically sound play. I may just be bitter, but I thought we were hasty.

You can't do that without knowing for sure what the setup is.

I didn't know for sure if Kise was a vig/sk or even mafia.

I didn't know if Ryan was scum or cop.

I was pretty certain you were scum and I was quite content to let night sort the claims out for me. I figured I was going to be stuck in lylo with Steph and a claimed role with them voting for each other.

[Zachrulez]

Also emphasizing the setup while concerns were being voiced on you and not addressing that probably wasn't the best thing to do.

Addressing the concerns before doing your setup analysis might have worked out a bit better.

I'm feeling a bit bitter about the loss, but I honestly just want to help improve everyone's play as much as possible. I would welcome the chance to play any of you again.

[Zachrulez]

Whoops. Still, I thought that it would make people trust Stephoscope less.

If I had been under more scrutiny, I was totally ready to put out a theory about how dramonic knew he was going to be lynched, so he laid the foundation for me (an innocent townie, of course) to be suspected and lynched immediately after that.

I considered a lot of that WIFOM.

I probably wouldn't have taken well to Steph using it to argue his innocence though.

[Zachrulez]

BTW: I PM'd X part of the way through D2 wondering who killed me. X truthfully told me that it was Jazz, and this is part of the PM that she shot me part of the way through D2 (I didn't respond with anything as I can't talk about the game to somebody living).

Well, some of this town doesn't seem to be all that bright.... but then who am I to talk since I vigged you and you flipped town? I'm really peeved at myself for that, you know. I was not going to target you initially but then there was something that I read that just seemed "off" and it was late at night and I'd had a few cocktails... and the rest, as they say, is history.

So, again, sorry about that.

As I said in thread, I think that Stephoscope is scum in this game. I'm not sure who his partner (or partners) is/are, but Alex is looking scummier all the time.

Check out Steph's post #585 - I am surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet, but I will be doing so when I post my case on him. This strikes me as a dead giveaway: Steph wrote: "I wonder why DDD was killed? I didn't agree with some of his arguments, but I for one was pretty certain he was town."

Um, what?

Cheers,
Jazz

Unfortunately Jazz replaced out and that case never came.

Probably one of the key moments in sealing the game for the scum looking back.

[Zachrulez]

@Zach, why was my cop claim fishy? My intent initially when roleclaiming was to counter claim vig, which alex hinted at the previous day. If I had went before you (since I thught you were the cop), I would have counterclaimed vig, saying I never vigged N3 on Alex, and tried to get Kise lynched FTW), but I was home free when you and Hoopla both claimed VT. Earlier in the last day you said "Ryan would be the best lynch candidate" I felt it came out of nowhere and I was certain is was the result of an investigation, but then you claimed VT.

There were a few issues with your claim. The Gateway investigation just came off as strange for one. The other issue was the fact that you claimed a guilty on Lester, but was toying around with the idea of unvoting him on the day of the deadline.

Neither of those issues came close to my perception of Hoopla's scumminess, and I was planning to revisit them after what I expected to be an academic scum lynch of Hoopla. I was really surprised to find the game over the next day after my hammer.