Aristophanes:
-The main thing that made me start actually thinking Aris might be scum was that some of the points about Keyser in #100 seemed like they were reaching. Like saying that signaling to town that we're out of RVS was a play to look like town. Doesn't make sense to me. And saying that Keyser not understanding that Lapsa was quoting the wiki was "disingenuous." It seems much more likely to me, regardless of alignment, that Keyser just didn't know what Lapsa was posting. And there's not really a scum motivation for it, but Aris treats it as such. The reasoning just strikes me as the kind of thing scum would do when they know they're going after a wagon where the reasoning is already established but they don't want to look like they're just sheeping. So they heap on anything else they can find.
-Nothing else has really stood out to me as being alignment indicative.
BlueMoonRising:
-Not a whole lot yet, but for some reason I get a gut townvibe from his posts so far. Just the vote on Lapsa, the curtness, the (probable) wait-and-see approach...all things I feel like I see from town in early game. Not terribly strong, I'd call it a weak townlean and want to come back later. This is the kind of slot where other factors are better for reading the slot (not going to expand on that right now because if this slot is scum I don't want to give any ideas on what I'm looking for).
-EDIT AFTER INITIAL ENTRY: And then he goes and posts #210, in which he is directing play. There are a lot of scummy possibilities for this post, including coaching buddies, preemptively distancing himself from a mislynch and subtly trying to project an image of ignorance. The last sentence in particular bugs me because it seems like an afterthought; "Oh by the way I don't
really
know whether he's town."
Garmr:
-I get a minor townvibe from #70 given the way Garmr describes his RVS-stage attitude in #124. It just seems like Garmr trying to get things moving a little bit but he doesn't have a lot to go on. At the same time it's a very shallow push. Which basically means that Garmr isn't trying that hard to get things moving, and that can be antithetical to some scum's early-game mentality: to try to appear super towny.
-That being said, I was totally fooled by scumGarmr the last time I played with him so I don't know if I'll ever feel very comfortable townreading him this game.
-The push on Trivium (who is my top townread atm) gives me bad feelings, but at the same time it is literally impossible that the entire wagon is driven by scum so there must be some town out there who are on the wagon and just are not seeing what I'm seeing. I kind of knew that would happen because the post that made me townread triv the most is one that appears town to me because I know that I'm town.
-So basically my read on Garmr is somewhere between null and null-town, with a general wariness attached.
Gimlear:
-The questioning of Keyser (which may have actually sparked the early wagon on him), denouncing of the push on Keyser and subsequent L-1'ing of Trivium could come from either alignment. But if it does come from scum, it means Gimlear is a competent and thoughtful scum player. Which is just something I want to take note of for future assessment of the slot.
-That being said, the arc and posting style does feel genuine to me. So not interested in chasing Gimlear right now.
Grayfoxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
-Slight scumlean mostly just for #138. Looks like scum hesitation to appear too scummy while still wanting to hop on a juicy wagon. Other than that not much to go on. This early in the game I don't buy into lurking arguments too much.
JJD:
-JJD was the first, I believe, to jump on the Keyser thing. So while I do think it was low-hanging fruit for scum, I think you kind of have to give the benefit of the doubt to the first person to jump on the first wagon. That's just getting town out of RVS, which is something any alignment would do.
-The pushing on Keyser kinda strikes me as coming from town. Just seems like a natural path for town to go: sees something easy to talk about -> votes to get town out of RVS -> continues questioning player -> responses don't make much sense, and you're already voting them, so you continue to argue.
-Begins assessing how other players have interacted with the wagon in #153, which supports the get-town-out-of-RVS theory for his push on Keyser.
-Yeah I just see a lot of questioning and trying to move the game forward. Reads like town. Not that scum can't fake it, but this early in the game it feels towny to me.
Keyser:
-Don't buy the early-game arguments against Keyser about trying to look town. Yes, it's possible that's what he's doing. But I see no reason to believe that over the very plausible town explanation of "but he literally just wanted to know though."
-His responses to the pressure are a little illogical, but I still don't see a reason to read them as scummy. They actually ring towny to me because they come across like he's sure of himself and not trying to project an image, if that makes any sense...like here's an example. In #43 he responds to JJD by sarcastically saying "yes, scum have strong motivation to publicly look scummy." Like, the statement itself doesn't really make sense, and I feel like a more scummy approach would be to turn it around and start pushing a case on JJD or something along those lines.
-Generally he just comes across as a person who feels like it's obvious he's town, and the way I read that is that he thinks he should be obvtown because he knows that he's town.
-His switch to Performer in #196 amid continuing near-lynch status on the Trivium wagon also smacks of town to me. He didn't even back away from wanting to lynch Trivium, only suggested that we don't have to do it right now, so really as scum I think it would have been a better idea to keep pressure on Trivium without drawing attention elsewhere.
Lapsa:
-There are really only two things in Lapsa's ISO that I see to look at: his vote/unvote on Trivium and his vote on makara. The vote on Trivium put Triv at L-2, and then he unvoted after Gray put Triv at L-1 (and also after I suggested that we shouldn't lynch Triv). I can see scum motivation behind it, but the town explanation seems a bit more plausible to me (that Lapsa wanted to let more happen in D1/didn't feel that strongly about Triv being scum.) It also kind of seems antithetical to a scum mindset just because why would he want to work against a mislynch? (this is assuming the point of view of scumLapsa/townTriv)
-The makara vote supports the explanation of Lapsa wanting more things to happen in D1 as well. Makara has probably posted the least out of all the players just because of the V/LA, and while Lapsa's vote didn't come with an explanation, I read it with an implication that Lapsa is trying to get makara to do more.
-Not sure what to make of Lapsa voting for BMR and makara in the same post. Maybe that's like a weird form of FoS?
makara:
-Don't see a whole lot to go on here. The catch-up post is the most substantive thing and that could really go either way.
Performer:
-Early-game enthusiasm could just be the excitement of a player who hasn't played much or a scum player hoping to come across as friendly/towny/fun. Not really sure which direction to go.
-Parts of #73 strike me as being pretty shallow, like the chiming in on the Keyser stuff. Which pings as scummy. He does say a couple ISO posts later that he doesn't want to lynch Keyser, but that's after I start arguing for Keyser being town.
-Jumps on the Triv wagon later (Perf says it's L-1 but for some reason I feel like he was mistaken), which is sketchy but not more sketchy than some of the other people on the wagon IMO.
-So yeah a scumlean here.
Trivium:
-I did think #59 was scummy. But it was surface-level scummy. It was the kind of thing that's really easy to call scummy. But he goes back and explains his push on Keyser in #98 and it seems legit to me. So he's a new-ish player and gets a little overeager to find scum. Makes sense. The fact that he comes right out and admits it, as Zulfy put it when I asked him about these posts, means he's either cleverly manipulative scum or very honest town. Taking into account Triv's experience and posting style, it makes more sense to me that he would be very honest town.
-There's also his turnaround where he votes me amid orange-colored, all-caps excitement in #110/111. This looks -- again -- like excited town who think they've found a genuine scumslip (or something, I was never too clear on what his reasoning was). This doesn't seem like the kind of thing a new scum player would think to do.
Zulfy:
-Not really sure what to make of the early-game pre-flip association stuff. I guess I could see him using it as town as just a thought organizer, but then scum can use those techniques as a means to force their reads into a more genuine-looking perspective. So. Null I guess.
-His positioning on the Trivium wagon is prime scum real estate. The positioning is honestly the thing that made me raise an eyebrow when he made the vote. His reasoning, which goes above some other peoples' reasons for voting Triv, are actually not all that bad.
-Not a big fan of #191. It's like he's giving himself an out in case he wants to bail from the Trivium wagon.
