/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Fate]

FIVE HOUR COUNTDOWN BEGINS.

[mith]

L-1...

UNVOTE: HackerHuck
VOTE: ooba

[Patrick]

Votecount

PokerFace (1) -- HackerHuck
HackerHuck (2) -- PokerFace, iamausername
ooba (4) -- Fate, Plumegranate, SpyreX, mith

Not voting: ooba, CrashTextDummie
9 alive, lynch at 5

[CrashTextDummie]

Alright, I started reading, first 10 pages down. As usual, Day 0 stuff is a chore to read through, as I don't think it gives much information pertinent to scumhunting. I admit to skimming some of the longer posts by confirmed town players.

I don't have many notes, but it's more than nothing:

From the people still alive, MME (now Pokerface) struck me as the most pro-town for his massclaim proposal. Knowing what we do now about the set-up (that town started with 2 vigs and two trackers), I think massclaim would have been very advantageous for the town. I very very seriously doubt scum would have suggested it. Plus, I think a town player is more likely to look for and suggest potentially game breaking strategies than scum (which is why Zorblag and Hoopla struck me as very town as well, I'm curious to find out how they ended up getting lynched).

By far the most scummy player of the first 10 pages is VasudeVa (now HackerHuck). Not only did he speculate on a 2vig/2tracker set-up as the most likely and still refused the massclaim idea (or even consider it), he also brought up the fact that scum were day-talking on two seperate occasions. Since scum are the ones actually doing the day-talking, I find them to be more likely to bring this up in-thread than townies. A decent tell.

Mith pinged my scumdar for shooting down MME's massclaim idea using flawed math. Most people openly rejected the idea, but his reaction struck me as the most likely to come from scum. He presented numbers that looked pretty (not to mention pretty decisive) but were utterly meaningless in the context of this game. Bringing them up seems disingenuous to me. As outlined above, I think scum only had to lose from a massclaim and mith's argument read to me like scum trying to nip the idea in the bud with a sleigh of hands.

Papa Zito (now iamusername) pinged my scumdar lightly for extreme uselessness.

No one else piqued my interest.

Scumteam as of page 10 (in order of likeliness):
HackerHuck, mith, iamusername

I'm hoping the game gets easier to read once the theory discussion is done with. Next batch coming shortly.

[CrashTextDummie]

(Sidenote before the next analysis post: I read the last couple of pages as well as the circumstances of Hoopla's lynch before starting to read the game proper. I am assuming Hoopla to be town based on her gambit)

[CrashTextDummie]

Pages 11-20 read, game got interesting thankfully:

My suspicions of mith have increased. His reaction to DGBs gambit is consistent with what I'd expect from one of her buddies. I particularly disliked how he used it to drill Hoopla (case in point: Post 412, in which he asks for nothing short of mind reading from Hoopla) and ultimately used it to push the wagon on her. I felt his case against DGB was a lot stronger (particularly since he claims to have a good track record at reading her) than the one against Hoopla. This is significant because he was the tipping point in getting the Hoopla wagon going (prior to his votes, Hoopla and DGB had the same amount of votes). At this point in my read, he's a good bet for scum.

Vasudeva (HackerHuck) did little in these 10 pages, and none of it was encouraging. Of particular note is the wagon hopping and the weak bandwagon vote on Hoopla.

Papa Zito (iamusername) made me raise my eyebrow early in D1 with his unreasoned Hoopla hate and a "DGB is DGB" stance to her gambit, but I haven't decided yet if I find it very scummy. My irritation with him could be playstyle related. Needless to say, he doesn't exactly make my scumlist.

MME (Pokerface) did very little in these 10 pages. I carry over my pro-town feelings from D0.

I had issues with ooba's entry into D1 (Post 381). It's fairly useless; his criteria for assigning people to the scum/town column doesn't make much sense. I also dislike where certain people ended up on the list. And lastly, it bothers me that he awards town-points for supporters of massclaim, and yet he was hedging his bets on the issue for the entirely of D0. Considering my point about massclaim in the last post, this makes a whole lot of sense from a scum point-of-view.

Plum struck me as rather pro-town for generally accurate analysis and spotting some of the same things I spotted (re: ooba, for example).

Ekim (Fate) and SpyreX continue to not leave a lasting impression. Not a big issue at this point in my read.

Most likely scum as of page 20:
mith, Vasudeva, ooba

[CrashTextDummie]

I'll continue tomorrow. It's getting late and this took longer than expected. That D0 was draining to read.

[Fate]

HEHEHHHE

FNALLY

CLAIMING TIME OOBA MAH BOY.


HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Fate]

Analysis is good so far, cept for the mith is scum thing.

Mith bleeds and sweats obvtown from his pores, and a claimed Tracker was even allowed to live just because he was silly enough to suspect mith.

Most likely scum are leaving mith alive for teh PARANOIZ, but it'll likely backfire by mith's ability to catch teh scumz.

[mith]

Off to a wedding, and I won't be back until late. ooba needs to claim, but we should give CTD some time to finish catching up before anyone hammers.

[PokerFace]

Yes let's let CTD finish. He will likly realize suspicion of mith is wrong after he gets to seeing the DGB wagon and lynch I don't think he has gotten to that based on his analysis so far

I like how people are starting to see the Huck ooba pairing, granted there is some even I need to catch up on though. Got to see if ooba better lynch than huck. My access for weekend is getting better though not 100% so staying with that note in my sig. Gonna try to be caught up on monday at latest

[ooba]

I'm a vanilla townie ..

[Patrick]

Everyone in range has been prodded. Carry on.

[SpyreX]

VT huh?

Nope, not buying it.

[Fate]

I'm a vanilla townie ..

"waa Im a VT."

NOT

"Im a VT AND HERES MY CONTENT AND SUSPECTS AND WAY WE SHOULD GO TODAY."

ORRRRRRRRR

"Im a VT AND WAAAAAAAAAAH THIS WAGON IS BS AND HERES WHY"


DIE>
DIEiDIDIEI

DDIED
IDE

OGOOBA
DIEEEEEEEE

[Fate]

DIE AND FLIP ROLEBLOCKER SO THAT I MAY BE MORE OBVTOWN THAN MITH AND KILLED POSTHASTE

BWAHAHAAAAAAAAA

[CrashTextDummie]

Reading. Switching my analysis formatting to something that worked better in the past. Pages 21-30:

Fate (replacing ekiM)

- I have a somewhat mixed reading on ekiM. His unvoting of Hoopla struck me as rather pro-town, his metaing seems genuine. On the other hand, I don't like the VV defense. Didn't really care for his late-day voting behavior either: He unvoted zoraster because the wagon lacked momentum, yet he put his vote on a person with even less momentum (with weak reasoning to boot). I could see this coming from scum who doesn't want to tip the scale in a scenario with Hoopla-town and VV-scum. Not the scummiest player by a longshot, but I'll keep an eye out as I read on.

mith

- not much from him in these pages. I disagree with Hoopla that he is more likely to attack her this consistently as town. I've played with mith-scum before and know he's easily capable of such a relentless attack. My opinion of him hasn't changed, still a very good candidate for scum. Looking forward to the oozing Fate has promised.

PokerFace (replacing My Milked Eek)

- not much from this player slot. Not as big a fan of SaintKerrigan as I was of MME, dislike the lack of vote at the end of the day. Not bad enough for me to seriously reconsider my stance though. Not an interesting character still.

ooba

- only two content posts. I don't find them particularly scummy, but his play is way too under-the-radar for my taste. I continue to be unimpressed.

iamausername (replacing Papa Zito)

- I didn't take many notes on him. General feeling is that his contributions increased in these 10 pages, which makes me feel better about him. I may have to read back on him when I'm done, because I still don't really know where I stand on him.

Plumegranate

- continues to make posts that rub me the right way. I feel very in tune with her as I read the game. Probably town.

SpyreX

- got more visible in this portion of the game. I'm not sure I like the VV hate from him, it had the hallmarks of a :strongbus:. I know I didn't like the way he ended up on Hoopla. Not the scummiest in the bunch, but definitely worth a raised eyebrow.

HackerHuck (replacing VasudeVa)

- I don't understand how Hoopla got lynched over him, even with her deliberate bad play he was far and away the scummiest player of D1. My predecessors posts in ISO pretty much give the picture: shameless wagoning, refusal to answer questions, feigned indignation, terrible (non) defense. Everything about him screams scum.

Most likely scum as of page 30:
VasudeVa, mith. Third slot up for grabs between ooba/SpyreX/ekiM (in order of likeliness)

Next 10 pages coming up.

[CrashTextDummie]

Another 10 pages read. Switching my analysis formatting again because I'm a rebel:

VasudeVa continues to be incredibly scummy. I'm gonna save some time and direct you to my predecessor Seraphim's posts. I agree with them 100%. I also think that DGB's play is indicative of VV-scum. Why is he still alive?

I got distinct town vibes from ooba's attack against VV. His use of meta in posts like 933 strikes me as the kind of stuff scum wouldn't go to the lenght of to justify a vote on a player like VV.

SpyreX's continued attack against VV still smells like a bus to me. And even if I'm wrong about VV, I see him as more likely scum than ooba at this point in my read.

The KMD/Elmo tracker-vig business was unfortunate. None of the reactions to it struck me as particularly scummy or pro-town. That includes mith's treatment of the issue. The argument he makes made sense from a pro-town perspective at the time (it does kind of conveniently ignore the possibility of two vigs, but considering the lack of a third night-kill, I think that would have been a fair assumption to make for town-mith). It's also the argument I'd expect scum-mith to make. I consider it neutral.

Speaking of mith, he started backing up his DGB-hate (which he harbored since the beginning of the game) with a vote in this portion of a game. I don't see it as very indicative of his alignment at this point in my read.

SaintKerrigan (PokerFace) was barking up the wrong tree with her Seraphim-case, but I felt it was genuine. Continues to be the most pro-town playerslot along with Plumegranate.

Not sure I like ekiM (Fate) abandoning a DGB vote for ooba. Smells opportunistic. He continues to be a player I find vaguely suspect.

Papa Zito (iamausername) spent these 10 pages wierdly "guiding" VV to some kind of realisation involving night-kills and the like. I didn't really get it and I don't see the point. I have an issue with people dropping hints like that and inviting other people to piece them together (I've seen it used as a scum-tactic before), and I have an issue with it here, but I'm not sure to what extent. He's the player I'm probably most in need of reading in isolation.

Scum list as of page 40 is very similar to the last one, except bump ooba down a couple notches.

I'll finish this up tomorrow. Thank you for your patience.

[Fate]

WE GET IT YOUR TOWN HAMMER OOBA

[CrashTextDummie]

I respectfully decline, kind sir.

[Fate]

THERES NO MORE GOD DAMN POINT IN BEING ANY MORE OBVTOWN OTHER THAN TO GET NK'D. AND DRAWING THE NK IS MY JOB, GOOD SIR.

NOW FUCKIN HAMMER THE REST OF YOUR READS ARE IRRELEVANT, THE FACT THAT YOU ARE TOWN IS ALL THAT WAS NECESSARY.

[mith]

What Fate said in 1864. Minus the yelling and seizures.

Nothing new on the scumdar, but I haven't read anything this weekend so that's no surprise. Should be back to normal(ish) this week.

[HackerHuck]

Sorry about disappearing for a bit, although it has been nice to be in the crosshairs. Although Ooba's more likely to be scum than I am, I'm not sold that he's the right wagon. I'm a little concerned that I'll be lynched tomorrow if Ooba flips town and we'll lose the game. I'd rather go today if that will be my fate and then people can reset based on my flip.

[Fate]

Holy fucking hell HH your vote is on

POKERFACE

are you seriously doign everything you can to undermine my town read of you?

[Fate]

"I dun wanna hammer then get heat for it tomorrow"

ARE THEY BOTH INDEED SCUM SPYREX?


ARE THEY??????????????????????