PIRATES v. NINJAS! Game Over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Not voting: 6 (ooba, Cogito Ergo Sum, cicero, Lawrencelot, The Fonz, Primate)

4 to lynch!

Deadline will be around mid-April.

As things currently stand, you will be amazed to learn that no-one would be lynched at deadline.

[ooba]

We sure are in trouble now .. (We referring to the town here)

Anywayz i'm up for a mass claim .. Popcorn style ..

[Primate]

Ah. `

I just got back from holiday.

I don't see what harm mass claim can do with the game state the way it is, and it should out some scums.

[The Fonz]

Not so fast, scum!

A massclaim here makes a town victory impossible. It's not outing scum I'm worried about. It's letting the scum know who the town are.

Paradoxically, we can't really afford to lynch scum here. If we lynch a scum today, the rival scumgroup can win by NKing either of the remaining town players. (I have to assume a scumgroup wins when it has at least half of the living, and one more member than any other scumgroup).

I'm pretty sure our only hope is to no-lynch here and hope for crosskills, though i need to run the permutations to be sure.

[Primate]

I think that's a matter of points of view and circumstance.

Do you know what I mean?

[Primate]

Actually, even in abstract. Surely the best play is for us to mass claim then for us to no-lynch, because under those circumstances is a bad idea for them to be aimed at the town as opposed to each other because they can't take advantage of that? All it's going to do is make them be more informed when they try and kill each other?

If I'm wrong, feel free to say.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Actually, The Fonz, the best bet is to try and lynch a Goblin. They still have nk immunity from Ninjas, so that would still leave Ninjas 2 nks away from victory.

A mass claim is bad. Pirate Protector is still going to draw a nightkill, as he is unlynchable.

[Primate]

You reckon only the one person's going to claim pirate protector?

[Mr Stoofer]

I have been asked whether a Tie is possible. The position is this:

• As you can see from the Town win condition in the Rules post, if all the bad guys die, then the Town wins (even if all pro-Town players are dead).
  
• If the game goes several days and nights without any lynches or kills, then (after a fair warning) I will declare "...and they all lived happily ever after" In that case the surviving teams will share the win.

[The Fonz]

Actually, The Fonz, the best bet is to try and lynch a Goblin. They still have nk immunity from Ninjas, so that would still leave Ninjas 2 nks away from victory.

A mass claim is bad. Pirate Protector is still going to draw a nightkill, as he is unlynchable.

I think you've gotten the wrong idea re: scum immunity. I read the rule as each individual scum has one-shot immunity to each other scumgroup, not each group.

As far as I can make out, all kills by both scum factions are accounted for. That means both scumgroups have equal amount of immunity to one another left.

If we lynch a goblin (and same if we lynch a ninja) we go into night 2-2-1. If the scumgroup we don't lynch hits town, then they basically win. Why? Because then they have half the living, so can't be lynched. If they hit town that night, then it's 2-1 with no town living. The 2-man scumgroup lynches the one-man, and wins. If they hit scum that night, they still win, because there will be no-lynch the following day, and they can finish off the other scum the next night, and even if he's been hitting them, that leaves it at 1 scum one town, which is a scum win.

@Primate: you may be right, actually. Let me think about this. I'd gotten into the mindset that either we no-lynch, or we have the day as normal with claims and a lynch. I can't immediately think of a reason why massclaim followed by no-lynch isn't our best bet.

[cicero]

End game math makes my the stupid part of my brain hurt. BTW, Has anyone else noticed that Fonz is really quite bright?

CES - yes. You misrepresented the scum kill rules. And have been opposing a mass lynch for as long as possible. I'm fairly sure you're one of the scum at this point. Fonz made a really good case for you being one of those goblins you want to hunt, yesterday. but anyway, we'll get to that in a minute.

Fonz is the offshoot of your idea that if we lynch a scum, we lose? assuming you really are the same kind of "we" I am which I, of course, do not.

From my seat, I have a four in five chance of lynching scum. But this win condition looks totally fucked up. If town kills any scum they lose, according to Fonz. Is town just stuck choosing which one of you scummy factions wins?!

We are really hoping they just murder each other with crosskills? And if one of them misses and kills a townie, THEY lose? Town loses and the other faction wins?

Again. My head hurts.

[Primate]

From my seat, I have a four in five chance of lynching scum. But this win condition looks totally fucked up. If town kills any scum they lose, according to Fonz. Is town just stuck choosing which one of you scummy factions wins?!

My plan atm is pretty much to hope all you guys kill each other and that me or ooba are left standing at the end of the game by sheer luck. Honestly I've kind of written this game off.

[17] All bad guys (scum) have one-shot immunity against any scum group.

In other words, for a scum cross-kill to occur, a bad guy must be targeted twice by the same scum group.

If a kill fails for that reason, the targeting scum group will be told that that was why their kill failed.

Bump. I'm pretty sure C.E.S is right regarding crosskills.

[ooba]

Ok our optimal choice is to no lynch as town

And

scum - your optimal play is to try to hit the other scum group hoping they mess up and hit a townie at night ...

Explanation in next post ..

[ooba]

Possibilites :

[mrow]Night Action possibilities/Day Alternatives>>[col]Lynch Either Scum[col]No Lynch[col]Lynch Town Ninja hits town , Goblin hits town = same townie[col]Ninja Win[col]Longshot Town win , Mostly Scum win[col]Goblin/Ninja Tie Ninja hits town , Goblin hits town = different townie[col]Goblin/Ninja Tie[col]Ninja/Goblin Tie[col]N/A Ninja hits town , Goblin hits Ninja[col]Nina win or Ninja/Goblin Tie[col]Goblin Win[col]Goblin Win Ninja hits Goblin , Goblin hits Town[col]Ninja win[col]Ninja Win[col]Ninja Win Ninja hits Goblin , Goblin hits Ninja[col]Town win[col]Town Win[col]Town Win

Reasoning :

Ok here are choices available to

'this group'

(Not saying town here cause its a scum majority )

I'm assuming 2 town,2 ninja,2 goblins here...

* refers to immunity lost to the other scum group

1) Day 6 : Lynch somebody of either scum group(I'll assume goblin here)

Night 6 : 2 town,2 Ninja,1 goblin
Optimal strategy : Ninja to hit town
Optimal Strategy : Goblin to hit Ninja to remove immunity.

A) Ninja hits town / Goblin hits town = Both same townie
Day 7 : 1 Town,2 Ninja,1 Goblin
Automatic two day No lynch'es followed by crosskill after which NINJA WINS

B) Ninja hits town / Goblin hits town = Both different townie
Day 7 : 2 Ninja,2 Goblin
GOBLIN / NINJA TIE

C) Ninja hits Town / Goblin hits Ninja
Day 7 : 1 Town,1 Ninja+1 Ninja*,1 Goblin
Optimal Strategy : Goblin to hit ninja again
Optimal Strategy : Ninja to target Goblin
The first is sure of getting through. The second assuming the ninja's can guess who the goblin is - 1/2 possibility
So a toss up between NINJA WIN and NINJA/GOBLIN TIE

D) Ninja hits Goblin / Goblin hits town
After the next night in which goblin is killed , NINJA WINS

E) Ninja hits Goblin / Goblin hits Ninja
Day 7 : 2 town,1 Ninja+1 Ninja*,1 Goblin*
Optimal Strategy : Hit each other next leading to TOWN WIN after lynch

2) Day 6 : No Lynch

Night 6 : 2 Town,2 Ninja,2 Goblin
Optimal Strategy : Ninja to hit goblin
Optimal Strategy : Goblin to hit Ninja

A) Ninja hits town / Goblin hits town = Both same townie
Day 7 : 1 town,2 Ninja,2 Goblin
No lynching and hoping the scum die in crosskills is the best option here.
Of course if one group hits the townie , they automatically lose.
Longshot TOWN WIN but mostly SCUM WIN

B) Ninja hits town / Goblin hits town = Both different townie
NINJA / GOBLIN TIE

C) Ninja hits Town / Goblin hits Ninja
GOBLIN WIN

D) Ninja hits Goblin / Goblin hits Town
NINJA WIN

E) Ninja hits Goblin / Goblin hits Ninja
The optimal strategy is for them to finish each other out which leads to TOWN WIN

3) Day 6 : Lynch Town

Night 6 : 1 Town,2 Goblin,2 Ninja

A) Ninja hits town / Goblin hits town
GOBLIN / NINJA TIE

B) Not Applicable

C) Ninja hits Town / Goblin hits Ninja
GOBLIN WIN

D) Ninja hits Goblin / Goblin hits Town
NINJA WIN

E) Ninja hits Goblin / Goblin hits Ninja
The optimal strategy is for them to finish each other out which leads to TOWN WIN

So what do 'we' do:

Dear Town brother, the game is not in our hands anymore i'm afraid .. Lets enjoy the show

To everyone , No lynching is best here obviously.

Vote : No lynch

P.S My Claim :

I'm Harry houldini(pro town escapologist) , I have a one shot escape from a lynch . As you can see i've (Rosso Carne rather) already used it up on Day 1.
I'm town -

scum do not target me in the night !! You'll lose if you do

- I'm not lying (Read above)

[Mr Stoofer]

I have been asked to clarify the following.

Under rule [17], each

individual

bad guy has his

own

one-shot immunity from each scum group.

An example: Imagine 2 scum groups, Mafia and Werewolves. On night 1, the Mafia target Werewolf #1, and the Werewolves target Mafia #1. Both survive due to rule [17]. The next day, Werewolf #1 is lynched. On night 2 the Mafia target Werewolf #2. He survives because he still has his own personal immunity from Mafia kills. The Werewolves target Mafia #1. He dies because he has already used up his one-shot Werewolf-kill immunity, on night 1.

In fact, I'll even quote the following, which appeared in all bad guy role PMs:

Any group of bad guys that tries to kill you will fail at their first attempt.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Totally didn't see that coming.

Best course of action is probably no-lynch. Let's give our scum plenty of time to kill themselves.

Vote: No Lynch

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

No-lynch: 2 (ooba, Cogito Ergo Sum)

Not voting: 4 (cicero, Lawrencelot, The Fonz, Primate)

4 to lynch!

Deadline will be around mid-April.

As things currently stand, you will be amazed to learn that no-one would be lynched at deadline.

[Lawrencelot]

I don't feel like trying to understand ooba's post, but I think it doesn't matter anymore. I'm the pirate protector (Stephen Maturin). Everyone who doesn't claim should be regarded as scum.

Vote: no lynch

.

[cicero]

Kinda funny since the pirate protector is me. Peter Pan.

Vote No Lynch

Feel free to check out me trying to bait CES into claiming it outright a few pages back if you want a good luck.

Stephen Maturin, my fucking ass.

[cicero]

BTW

Night one I protected Thesp because of his reputation.

Night two and three I protected Mister Buddy Lee for obvious reasons (vigilante).

Night four I didnt protect him because by then I thought he was a goddamn doctor killing menace. I protected Mikeburnfire.

And on Night five I stopped protecting people for fairly obvious reasons.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No! Liars.

I'm the Doctor, pirate protector.

Samruc protected JordanA24 N1 and MBL N2. Failed to send in Night 3. I've always protected MBL, up until he died.

[cicero]

CES you suck at this. Are you ninja or goblin? At least Lawrencelot had the good sense to try to match up with Jack Aubrey.

"The Doctor" Pirate Protector? Doctor Who protects against Pirates now?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, Peter Pan? Are you even taking this game seriously?

[cicero]

I know. Peter Pan would never protect anyone from pirates.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you can travel in time, you can damn well protect people from pirates, cicero.

And the Doctor actually does fight off pirates at some point.