Mini 1333: Terror in the Parlour (Game Over)

[YYR]

Day 5. You were probably going to vote for me. Had a Tierce-Nero scumteam simply waited for your vote on me, they could have quickhammered to victory, no? Especially when Nero already had suspicion of me so his jump would not be suspicious, and Tierce's jump (if forced to go first) would not have been to far out there since she had put me as Triangle's buddy. Going for a bus seems like an unnecessary hoop to jump through (although I suppose timezones may have had an effect on this if it was late in Tierce's time, but eh).

[zoraster]

That's a pretty good point... if I thought Nero was approaching this game deliberately and purposefully. Whatever he was trying to accomplish with voting for triangle, it was ill advised. I don't think he was aware enough of the game to recognize that I was leaning toward voting for you. Which is true, but wasn't set in stone at that point because the main reason you were my primary suspect was because of pairings of which you were involved in both sets that made sense to me (YYR-Nero, YYR-Tierce).

Besides, people get spooked in lylo situations. Had Nero suddenly gone YYR, I think my alarms would have gone off since either (a) he was bussing or (b) it took YYR-Nero off the table, leaving me only with YYR-Tierce as a pair, which was only marginally stronger than Nero-Tierce.

[zoraster]

er. obviously my analysis on (b) is wrong since it'd leave me with Nero-Tierce as the only option (since it couldn't very well be YYR-Tierce-Nero). So I guess had Nero had voted you, I would have either seen it as a bus or gone straight to Nero-Tierce.

[Tierce]

Oh fuck this game.

Go ahead and crossvote. No one who has seen me as scum would possibly see my play as scummy after Robb and after Nero. It's an insult if you think I would kill havingfitz when he had a standing counterclaim on my hypo-scumbuddy. I'm nothing if not extremely practical as scum.

Tired. Very much not going to read this today.

[zoraster]

I get Nero, but why would Robb be exculpatory?

[Tierce]

I am not nearly that convinced or aggressive as scum. That wasn't calculated, that was all-out "this guy is scum and needs to die".

Go read my scum games. Even in Paranoia

my magnum opus shut up I have low standards

, I didn't do particularly well with pseudo-1v1s--the extra knowledge makes my play all stunted when I'm scum.

And you have 50% chance of being very aware of this and leading me on. ...augh.

[zoraster]

So... I made the post below sort of free flowing analysis. I apologize that it's not that well structured.

The crash makes your meta kind of hard to read. The defense based on you not 1v1ing is weak. If that really is your meta, I fully anticipate your next scum game to be certain with your reads and go after someone aggressively.

Still, I don't need to rely on Robbnva to determine your alignment. I can look at the pair of scum flips and ask myself: "Do I believe Tierce would want to bus not just one but BOTH of her scum mates?"

So although Nero-Tierce is the easiest to get a grip on, I think it's time to return to the Code lynch. And to really understand that lynch, the night kill is essential. Tierce has repeatedly called the kill on havingfitz stupid. I tend to agree. So what would they payoff be for scum-Tierce? Because it's basically impossible that she wouldn't have considered that it's a pretty dumb move to kill a used up 1-shot cop that'll inevitably lead to your scummate being lynched.

I think the payoff would be exceedingly low. The only thing that could possibly come from it is a half-chance that people would recognize it as being beneath her. In other words, she didn't do it because she wouldn't do it. But that's a pretty remote possibility, and it's one that I think the majority of players here would be unlikely to make on her behalf.

Conclusion: Code-Tierce is unlikely.

Let's turn to Nero. I've already gone through the connections between the two, etc. When I've been thinking about this game, I've suffered moments of panic because the distancing came so much from Tierce, so little from Nero. He doesn't mention her until post 1444. In a way, this is exactly what I'd expect from a good play-bad player scum team trying to distance. But this is all unhelpful. So I want to turn to the Nero lynch and the events that led up to it.

Tierce votes Triangle. Nero moves in to vote Triangle. What's he hoping will happen here? There seem to be three main options. One: he hopes a townie comes in to hammer triangle. Two: he hopes his scum buddy is on and hammers it home. Three: it's an elaborate bus. One seems unlikely because only an idiot is going to hammer with virtually no explanation. Maybe Nero really believed it'd come, but I dont' think so. Three might be believable if Nero were a savvier player, but then again if he were, I have to 100% believe that he would go for the win in 5p lylo. I would. So two seems the more likely explanation, and that would eliminate Tierce as his buddy. To put it another way: I'd expect that pattern of voting on a townie to be Scum-Town-Scum or Town-Scum-Scum, with a preference for the latter. Scum-Scum-Town should be an obviously weak attack for scum to make.

The (only) nice thing about 3p lylo is that it's zero-sum. If I don't think Tierce is scum, that makes YYR scum.
As YYR was basically absent between Nero’s vote and my hammer, there’s not much to read there. The same is actually true of the CodeX lynch, now that I look at it. YYR comes in after the hammer is thrown (by CodeX himself) and says “Damn my schedule. Was that really the hammer?” I guess it’d make me feel a little better if YYR had also hopped on the CodeX wagon as even the least connected person would know that CodeX was going to get lynched the following day after a havingfitz kill.
Because there’s not much there to read and compare to Tierce’s actions, I’ll rely on my previous connection analysis:
•

YYR-Nero
YYR at one point says that he "doesn't have much" on Nero, but he's got vague towntells (1284), he then says that Nero is likely town due to Code's Result. Then he switches to saying that Nero is a "utility lynch" (1486) and finally he's "down for a Nero lynch" (1519) without much in the way to describe why he's changing. He puts Nero smack dab in the middle of his scum to town list (1592), then says that Tierce is a better lynch than Nero. (1601)

The first time Nero brings up YYR is to put him in a potential scum group of 4 (1361) that included the conftown scum mason.

The next time he really brings up YYR is to say he (Nero) is "really think' YYR is scum" (1575, then he pushes a triangle/YYR/code scum team (1577). Then Tierce becomes Nero's first choice, YYR second (1685)
[...]
YYR-Nero: This is my biggest pairing read. These two barely mention each other at first (besides YYR saying he just doesn't have much n Nero), but more importantly, when both mention the other it's usually to put them in the "He's Scummy but Less Scummy than Other People" category. This looks to be a pretty classic distancing attempt. They don't want each other to be lynched but they also want to be seen as being in conflict with each other. Which... they never really are.

With that in mind, although my panic-meter registers very high that I’m handing Tierce the win, this is it. If you’re scum, Tierce, at least don’t make me wait long to find out.

VOTE: YYR

[Tierce]

Not hammering.

[zoraster]

oh man. i'm literally shaking.

[zoraster]

it's weird that i know I need you to hammer YYR to win, but all i feel is relief.

[YYR]

Yeah, that was expected.

I'm not going to bother to try to bringing up points until Tierce posts because I don't want to waste my time if she's just going to hammer.

You have much experience in 3p LyLo, Zor? It's my first one. >.>

[YYR]

EBWOP: Well then.

[zoraster]

I believe my first mini-normal was a 3p lylo and I was scum. I'll dig it up.

[Tierce]

You can crossvote now.

And fuck this game. This is going to be so painful. ;_; (Hey, I can AtE all I want now, I'm clear.)

Robbnva, I expect you to have that hat ready.

[YYR]

VOTE: Zor

Real post in a bit.

[zoraster]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=625

for what it's worth. I don't believe I've been involved in another 3p lylo.

[Tierce]

Btw I'm not really reading your posts from now on. This 'making cases on each other' at this stage is NOT the way I'll make up my mind--because to win, each of you needs me to hammer the other. Your motivations are EXACTLY the same at this moment, and so there is virtually no distinction between you; there's nothing that can actually be scumhunted. I'm going to go back and reread the game yet again, and hope that this time I don't make the same mistake and vote for a townie. Hopefully the answer lies there.

I emphatically hate being in this position.

[Tierce]

Why did you spend so many words writing 1810 instead of crossvoting immediately, YYR?

[YYR]

Why did you spend so many words writing 1810 instead of crossvoting immediately, YYR?

Forgot to.

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

• YYR (1)
  : zoraster
  
• zoraster (1)
  : YYR
  
• Not voting:
  Tierce

Deadline is Sun 5 August at 18:00 UTC. (Automatic countdown: (expired on 2012-08-05 18:00:00))

With 3 alive it is 2 to lynch.

[callforjudgement]

Hey, I was going to put a vote count here, but there've been no posts since my last one…

Where is everyone?

[Tierce]

I know. Stop harassing me sheesh.

(<3)

[zoraster]

Mod trolling!

There's no rush, though I hope you don't overthink the decision.

[Tierce]

*twitch*

[callforjudgement]

Mod trolling!

Hey, that would be if I'd just copied-and-pasted the previous post without comment. <3