Mini 280 - Game Over

[Fiasco]

Aelyn, what's your role name and why didn't you state it spontaneously? (Quoting your role name is legal, right?)

[KingPin]

I say we take off and lynch LML from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

(Actually, no... having an unnightkillable townie wouldn't guarantee us a draw, and the whole story just isn't believable enough. But it's another option to think about.)

Fiasco, Here is my reason for thinking that you are acting scummy. Do you see where it says "lynch LML"? The "actually, no" part doesn't seem to support you not advocating this outcome. And as LML pointed out, you were/are trying to lynch a claimed cop!

In addition, when you suggest that it is odd for Aelyn to want to lynch a claimed power role, which player are you referring to? The last I remember, Aelyn was voting for you. You certainly have not claimed!

[Fiasco]

Do you see where it says "lynch LML"? The "actually, no" part doesn't seem to support you not advocating this outcome.

I intended it as saying, "actually, no, I do *not* say we lynch LML, but it *is* another option to think about". How did you read it?

And as LML pointed out, you were/are trying to lynch a claimed cop!

"Don't lynch a claimed cop" is just a slogan, a rule-of-thumb. I was calling LML out on his bluff: if his PM implies that he's sane, then if we lynch him, even in the worst case we still get a confirmed-innocent unkillable townie.

Also it's unfair to say I'm

trying

to lynch LML. He's been at zero votes for a while now. I'm just trying to discuss our options. Aelyn is still my favorite target for today, but we should think about it.

In addition, when you suggest that it is odd for Aelyn to want to lynch a claimed power role, which player are you referring to?

I'm referring to Aelyn. Aelyn seemed to be saying that since we shouldn't lynch claimed power roles, Aelyn is a better lynch than LML, but that doesn't follow, because Aelyn is claiming a powerful role for himself.

[Aelyn]

In addition, when you suggest that it is odd for Aelyn to want to lynch a claimed power role, which player are you referring to?

I'm referring to Aelyn. Aelyn seemed to be saying that since we shouldn't lynch claimed power roles, Aelyn is a better lynch than LML, but that doesn't follow, because Aelyn is claiming a powerful role for himself.

I feel I am a

better

lynch than LML. I don't think I am the

correct

lynch, and I certainly don't want to lynch myself.

Aelyn, what's your role name and why didn't you state it spontaneously? (Quoting your role name is legal, right?

My apologies

I am a

Coward

. If you need flavour, I hide at night.

[Don Gaetano]

Quick reality check here. You're saying that the LACK of a phrase makes you believe you have identical role PMs? What's more, I have NEVER seen that phrase before.

The reason why I think LML isn't scum based on the lack of that phrase, is that I find it highly unlikely that scum would give more information about their role PM than they have to, when counterclaiming someone with a pro-town role, and I have seen the phrase before. Besides, I'm suddenly almost sure I'm the one that isn't sane, so it doesn't really matter.

Let me

Unvote

.

The reason is that I just remembered that our beloved MOD is none other than LyingBrian, and he had a pro-town unnightkillable role in "Raj's freaktown". I tried to get him lynched from day one because I thought it was an improbable role, and we almost lost the game because of it. Considering he was pretty much a vote or two away from getting lynched the entire game, but survived to the end, I find it EXTREMELY likely that he would put a role like that in the game.

That means that LML is our sane cop, and I'm paranoid or insane. Hopefully my results get reversed, because then I can help the town finding scum when LML gets killed tonight

[Passdog]

Unsurprisingly I am incredibly happy with my vote as of now. Fiasco has been advocating (even suggesting it is bad right now) the lynch of someone who is possibly a cop. I don't care about his gibberish stating that 'don't lynch the cop' strategies are just a rule of thumb - I think that is just a tactic to get people to second guess their current thinking. Here's why:

A lot of us think lynching Aelyn is a good idea for the value of the information it will provide (if I wasn't so certain of fiasco's scummyness I would probably advocate this). Information such as who is what sort of cop, or if one is mafia, etc. That sort of information is however bad for the mafia. Having known cops (and knowing their sanity) will prove very detrimental to them.

So what does Fiasco do? tries to Lynch LML today. There goes one cop. And then before the end of the night DG ends up dead and both are dead leaving the town back at square one.

One of them might be mafia trying to pull a counter claim. But if that were the case Fiasco would be advocating what is good for the town (lynching Aelyn {who could be town, mafia or SK} for the info which would leave us with a functional cop of known sanity). Fiasco probably knows this though and as such is subtly suggesting we lynch LML (while trying his darndest to look town).

Reading over this, I don't think I explained my thought process all that well, and I'll clarify if need be.

Just so that we're all clear:

unvote vote Fiasco

[Fiasco]

Passdog, see #184

Don Gaetano, that's interesting. I was going to say my current favorite theory was that Aelyn is a godfather with a (possibly one-shot) nightkill immunity but without cop immunity, LML is a mafia goon, and you're a sane cop. Your point makes Aelyn somewhat more likely to be innocent (though always be careful in outguessing the mod).

It still bothers me that LML says based on his PM that he has to believe he's sane, and that you're saying it's probably the same PM. This can't both be true, so which of you is wrong? And the "sanity unknown" thing really doesn't impress me; saying that's not in there is only a very small risk.

Aelyn, why didn't you state your role name spontaneously? Why didn't you say why when I asked you? I'm not asking because I'm mad at you and want an apology; I'm asking because I want to know.

[Fiasco]

Question to LML: if you think I'm scum and Aelyn's town, how do you explain #149? Do you agree that if this scenario is true, I just made a huge sacrifice by probably saving the only unnightkillable player from a lynch?

Question to Don Gaetano: once again, can you self-investigate?

[Fiasco]

EBWOP

if this scenario is true, I just made a huge sacrifice

actually not so huge, because Aelyn seemed likely to be lynched later anyway.

[Norinel]

Am I the only one who finds it odd that people are advocating lynching someone other than Aelyn for advocating lynching someone other than Aelyn?

unvote: Passdog, vote: Aelyn

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 4) Aelyn
    • Jaguar
    • KingPin
    • Norinel
    • vikingfan
  • 3) Fiasco
    • draygn_mage
    • LoudmouthLee
    • Passdog
  • 3)
    not voting
    • Aelyn
    • Don Gaetano
    • Fiasco
• Lynch:
  6 votes

[Passdog]

@Norinel: it would be odd if we didn't have a scummier target.

In the interest of advancing discussion let's consider the potential scenarios regarding DG, LML and Aelyn.

1. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is Town. therefore LML is a cop and DG is insane.

2. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is scum. LML is insane and DG a cop.

3. DG tells the truth, LML lies, Aelyn is scum.

4. LML truth, DG lies, Aelyn is town.

What other realistic scenarios are there?

[Fiasco]

In theory DG and LML could both be lying, but unless draygn_mage (are you there, draygn_mage?) counterclaims, it's safe to rule out that possibility.

[draygn_mage]

I am not claiming any kind of cop. In fact, I am sort of shell shocked by the whole issue at hand.

[KingPin]

Mod,

Can we get an accurate vote count?

I am still of the opinion that to assess which cop to believe in the future, we need to know their sanity. Obviously there are questions as to sanity, since they each got a conflicting result on the same person.

I like my vote.

[vikingfan]

As much as I think Fiasco looks scummy, I still believe that Aelyn is the best play today. Thus I am not removing my vote.

[Aelyn]

@Norinel: it would be odd if we didn't have a scummier target.

In the interest of advancing discussion let's consider the potential scenarios regarding DG, LML and Aelyn.

1. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is Town. therefore LML is a cop and DG is insane.

2. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is scum. LML is insane and DG a cop.

3. DG tells the truth, LML lies, Aelyn is scum.

4. LML truth, DG lies, Aelyn is town.

What other realistic scenarios are there?

Only the admittedly unlikely one of both lying, and the quite possible one of both being insane, one way or another.

[Fiasco]

So have people lost interest in the game, or what?

As much as I think Fiasco looks scummy

I always enjoy opinions more when they're backed with facts and logic, but I suppose you can't argue about taste.

Not even one

of you has bothered to address the logic behind a possible LML lynch.

I feel I am a better lynch than LML.

It's kind of interesting that you feel this, because if you're pro-town you

know

you're a powerful pro-town role, whereas you only

suspect

LML is a powerful pro-town role. (And the berserk episode LML just had on pages 6-7, as well as his earlier behavior, strongly suggest otherwise. He almost got you speedlynched!)

This is probably going to enrage some people again, but here's another advantage to lynching LML. It's unlikely (IMHO) that either LML or Aelyn is the SK, meaning there will be two nightkill attempts no matter what. The obvious targets are LML and DG. If we lynch LML, it becomes more likely that the scum will waste a nightkill by both attacking DG (and who knows, DG might even have a doc protect).

Or in other words, even if we don't lynch LML, we may lose him to a nightkill anyway. This is emphatically

not

true of Aelyn: if we lynch Aelyn today, and Aelyn is innocent, then we're losing a power role we could

never

have lost otherwise.

It's worth thinking about, in a way that's not just "OMG!!! COPLYNCHER!!! kneejerkkneejerkkneejerk".

[Fiasco]

and the quite possible one of both being insane, one way or another.

"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town. (Let's be exact in our terminology: an "insane" cop is one that gets reversed results, a "non-sane" cop is a cop who doesn't always get correct results.)

Of course, if you're innocent and we assume all cops are insane/naive/paranoid, LML has to be naive and DG either insane or paranoid.

[Fiasco]

Come to think of it, if there's no sane cop (and I know you're not saying there isn't, just that it's possible) then the most logical explanation of what's happened is that DG is insane/paranoid and LML jumped in with a fake innocent result on someone he knew is not in the mafia. That would make you (Aelyn) probably innocent, and it would again make LML the correct lynch.

But I do think there is a sane cop in the game, so the above argument isn't strong.

[Fiasco]

Sorry about this, but I keep having new thoughts

someone he knew is not in the mafia

, or someone he knew is the mafia godfather.

[draygn_mage]

As much as Fiasco keeps jumping up and down and practically screaming "LYNCH ME", I have to say that logically, Aelyn is the best lynch today. It will at least give our doc a good target to protect and force the scum and SK to hit one person and not two. Thoughts?

[Jaguar]

My apologies. It looks like I failed to mention that I was likely offline until today, but here I am.

As LML so nicely pointed out:

THE SCUM ALREADY KNOWS WHO IS SANE!

"Don't lynch a claimed cop" is just a slogan, a rule-of-thumb. I was calling LML out on his bluff: if his PM implies that he's sane, then if we lynch him, even in the worst case we still get a confirmed-innocent unkillable townie.

No, in the worst case, Aelyn is a SK and LML is our sane cop that we just lynched. I don't like this idea at all. As a matter of fact, I'm starting to think that you, being a scum and already knowing who the right cop is, are trying to advocate something which is extremely harmful to the town as a whole.

Don Gaetano, that's interesting. I was going to say my current favorite theory was that Aelyn is a godfather with a (possibly one-shot) nightkill immunity but without cop immunity, LML is a mafia goon, and you're a sane cop. Your point makes Aelyn somewhat more likely to be innocent (though always be careful in outguessing the mod).

So if this is your theory, why aren't you advertising for Aelyn’s lynch. Why are you trying to get LML now? We gain much more from lynching Aelyn than LML!

If we lynch Aelyn, we know the right cop. There is also the remote possibility that there is someone out there who can still protect a cop! I have seen mini setups where there is a back-up in case of the doc’s death. No matter how much I want to switch my vote to Fiasco, I think we gain more from lynching Aelyn at this time. I certainly don't want to entertain the thought of lynching a claimed cop without some additional information, and lynching Aelyn will give us that information.

[Fiasco]

logically, Aelyn is the best lynch today. It will at least give our doc a good target to protect and force the scum and SK to hit one person and not two.

That makes no sense whatsoever. If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG. This will lead to either one or two dead claimed cops; if there's a doctor, one or zero. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, there will be one obvious nightkill target: DG. This will lead to one dead claimed cop; if there's a doctor, zero. (I'm assuming the mafia and SK don't mutually coordinate their kills; be on the lookout for anyone trying to do so.) We'll also have lynched the other claimed cop, but as a compensation, if LML is innocent, we'll have a confirmed unnightkillable townie.

If you want to kill off ALL power roles, lynching Aelyn is your best bet. I've come to the conclusion that Aelyn is probably a bad lynch at this point. Lynching LML doesn't seem to be politically feasible and might be a bad idea based on his cop claim, so maybe the best feasible lynch is a scummy looking player who has not claimed a power role; say, Mage or Dog. If no other players are scummy enough, maybe even a no-lynch. (I can say that, since I'm already at the lowest possible level of popularity anyway.) I'll need to think about whether I myself might a better lynch than Aelyn.

If we have two cops, one is going to be nightkilled soon, anyway; if we have no doctor, two. A bulletproof townie, on the other hand, lasts until lynched. And the inevitable cop nightkills will either clear him, or prove him scum, in which case we can go ahead and lynch him the next day.

A lot of this depends on how sure LML is, based on his PM, that he's sane. LML, please post.

[Fiasco]

No, in the worst case, Aelyn is a SK and LML is our sane cop that we just lynched.

For that worst case to be true, Aelyn would have to be an SK

with cop immunity as an extra ability

. And Aelyn hasn't behaved like an SK; he seems too inclined to sacrifice himself, whether that's for the scum or for the town.

I'm starting to think that you, being a scum and already knowing who the right cop is, are trying to advocate something which is extremely harmful to the town as a whole.

This just makes no sense. If I'm scum, then a confirmed-innocent bulletproof townie is my worst nightmare. If I'm a scum who knows Lee to be sane, then I also know Aelyn to be innocent, and Lee's death will (more or less) confirm Aelyn's innocence for everyone. Why would I go out of my way (and invite suspicion) to save Aelyn from a lynch?