Minvitational Game 1

[Werebear]

Vote: IS

If there's a competitor for the position of cop, now might be a good time to come forwards. *laugh*

Werebear

[Jalyn]

As a note, with Werebear's vote we are more than half way to lynching him. Perhaps it would make sense to give someone time to come forward and say that they are actually the cop, in case Jeep is lying?

[quercitron]

5 TO LYNCH.

IS: 4 (Antrax, jeep, Jalyn, Werebear)
Antrax: 2 (IS, Quailman)

Not voting: mith, mole, Samadhi

[Antrax]

If jeep is lying we're in good shape. We have a mafia (Jeep) and unless the mafia get the cop tonight, we'll have three investigative results.
Can't wait to add another notch, though
Antrax

[mith]

Stupid post count error.

Anyway, as Jalyn suggests, I'll wait a bit before voting, but it's obvious where my vote will go.

[Internet Stranger]

*sigh*

I dont understand why Jeep is doing this. He has to be scum now obviously. Im trying to follow the scenario here:

1) You fools lynch me because no one is going to believe me anyways
2) Lynch Jeep
3) What are the numbers for the mafia to win after that? I thought the mafia needed another round before pulling a Lepton for the win.

My only guess is that they are willing to sacrifice one draw out the cop so they can get him killed later. Still doesnt make sense to me though. The mafia bastards are lucky to have picked me. Im actually the benelovent townie doctor. Yea yea I know, big deal, thats what everyone says.

So congrats you goons, you got the doctor. Whoever is the real cop please keep quiet and dont let this little game of theirs come to fruition. Jeep will get lynched tomorrow for sure now, so wait until tomorrow to come out and blow the game open.

What the hell is this Jeep? Did you goons panic? You had us in a bind already, why come out now? Makes no sense. Maybe its reverse psych. You probably figured out im the doctor, and claimed copdom to lure the real cop out. No matter, whoever is the real cop shouldnt come out, you wont have doctor protection anymore after im killed.

Btw Jeep, how did you know I was the doc? Did I say something to give it away?

I almost dont even want to bother defending myself, no one ever believes the accused anyways.

Antrax should get ready to do the "I was wrong dance". Ill also get the banner ready.

Im the doctor!
Unvote: Antrax
Vote: Jeep

[Werebear]

Unvote: IS

All right, what now? Any more info, Jeep?

Werebear

[Antrax]

unvote: IS

This is a temporary measure. I still wanna vote him, but I don't want to risk him being the real doc and some goon just ending the day. There are several possibilities here.

First of all, it's very unlikely that the mafia know who IS was. Moreover, even if they did, it makes ZERO sense to come out to lynch him, when they could've killed him right away this night. The more I think about it, the less logical it sounds to me that someone would come out and accuse IS, but for the off-chance I'm missing something, I unvote.

I still think IS is mafia

. I just don't want the day to end right away.
Anymore thoughts?
Antrax

[Antrax]

Now that IS is not on the verge of lynching, let me think.

Why Jeep might not be the cop:

• It makes more sense to just vote for IS, seeing as I attacked him, and try to bandwagon him away, instead of coming out.
  
• It's possible the mafia just wanted to force the cop to come out, seeing as their win % with the cop out is 64.02.
  
• It's possible IS is mafia and Jeep is doing his cop impersonation routine now (unlikely as hell).

Why Jeep might be the cop:

• It's the common opinion the cop should come out if he found a mafia. The numbers aren't great, but its' the best we can hope for in such a stacked game. Just voting means he might've been killed tonight, and lose 2 investigative results (his night 1 and his night 3).
  
• It makes no sense for the mafia to try and control a game that's already in their favour. It also doesn't settle with the apparent strategy of offing the silent players.

All in all, I'm tending to vote IS. I don't believe the mafia could've known he's the doc, and he has nothing to lose if he's mafia. However, I'd like to read other people's opinions before making up my mind.
Antrax

[Internet Stranger]

I think they are sacrificing one of their own to lure out the real cop in my defense.

Its kinda risky though, and they didnt need to do this. Unless they panicked and thought Antrax was going to be lynched and the goons wanted to keep him alive. So mini FOS: Antrax I guess.

I also dont think I gave myself away as the doc. Can anyone look back and see if I said anything to let it slip out before?

Im speculating, I have some facts, but I cant piece them together to figure out what Jeep & co. are trying to pull.

[Antrax]

Another note: If you're the cop (not jeep) and are reading this, reveal yourself so we may lynch jeep and get on the 64.02% path. If you're the doc (not IS) please remain hidden at the moment. You're too valuable to our future plans to lose now.
Antrax

[Jalyn]

Unless they panicked and thought Antrax was going to be lynched and the goons wanted to keep him alive. So mini FOS: Antrax I guess.

Well, two votes for Antrax is hardly a real threat. And if that was the case, wouldn't it have made more sense for Antrax to come out as the cop saying that he was trying to start a bandwagon for you because he had found you guilty? That way the person that they thought was overexposed would have been the one with their head on the chopping block, rather than having two people exposed.

Jeep - You're post before "coming out" stated that the figures showed that it was probably best for the cop to not reveal themselves and showed the figures to explain that. In the post where you claimed your role, you said you decided to trust your numbers and that they showed that the town had a greater than 50% chance to win if you came out and we no lynched unless you got a mafia. Where is the discrepancy? Is this because you reran the numbers using the no lynch option, or what happened to make you change your mind?

As a final thought, and this is a question not a request, instead of the "real" cop coming out, would it make more sense to have the "real" doctor come out?

[Antrax]

If the "real" cop comes out, here's the breadown: (we lynch Jeep).
Jeep is the cop. We now know two mafia, and have a doc alive.
Jeep is scum. The mafia off the doc, and we get two more investigative results.

However, if the "real" doc comes out (we lynch IS):
IS is doc, we get two mafia, and have an unknown cop.
IS is mafia, the mafia off the doc, and we get two more investigative results.

It looks the same. However, if a fake doc comes out, it means we botch today's lynch, and have no doc to compensate. That means the game will reach a three-player endgame with 1 mafia and two players, whereas in the "doc alive" scenario it might not get to that.
Antrax

[Antrax]

..and I'm stupid. Re-reading made me realise it might not be a three player endgame if the cop survives and finds the last mafia (duh). So the options are equivalent.
Antrax

[Jalyn]

Yep, I was just about to post to say that I got it.

I had somehow forgotten to account for the fact that if a doc came forward that meant jeep was telling the truth. Occassionally I need to think things through a few times if they make sense.


Although, for "Jeep is the cop. We now know two mafia, and have a doc alive." - Well, not really, we have a target that can't protect itself that night and dies.

[Quailman]

unvote: Antrax; vote: IS

I believe jeep. Sorry, Antrax.

[jeep]

AS to why I posted even though my previously posted numbers said I shouldn't: My numbers assumed a lynch every day. If we do not lynch on the days that I only know innocents, then we win more than we lose.

If I am not the cop, then the real cop should come out and denounce me. I think that is clear. Since no one did, I think it's obvious that I'm not the cop.

If I AM the cop, then anyone who denounces me will get me lynched. Then the town has two mafia revealed and a hidden doc. Good for the town. So no one would denounce me (except possibly IS).

Also, notice my vote history: I voted IS on the first day and never changed my vote. I investigated IS because he ALWAYS seems like mafia.

-JEEP

[Jalyn]

Well, we haven't heard from everybody yet, but your claim is being substiantiated more with each reaction that comes in.

[Internet Stranger]

If the real cop comes and denounces Jeep, then I get lynched anyways, we are screwed right?

Doc is dead, kill cop tommorrow. We lynch Jeep, then another death. How does the town look after that? What are the odds?

Im trying to see if this scenario is enticing enough for Jeep & co. to pull off some fancy trick on us.

All I know is that im the doc and Jeep must be evil scum. Well, I also know that the accused never stands a chance, no matter who it is or what the circumstances are. If youre accused, youre pretty much dead.

[Antrax]

Jeep, I'm just waiting 24 hours until every possible person who wants to denounce you has a chance to do so. I still believe IS is mafia, as shown above. Why didn't you just follow the bandwagon I was starting?
Antrax

[Samadhi]

Vote: IS

[Jalyn]

unvote:IS

I just want to be sure that everyone has a chance to remark on this. I'll presumably be revoting IS in a bit.

[Antrax]

Have had enough time to denounce the cop: Antrax, Internet Stranger, Jalyn,
Samadhi, Quailman, mith.
Which leaves us with only mole, who's an aussie and Werebear, whom I saw browsing the forums but haven't posted.
Antrax

[Jalyn]

Werebear voted for IS since jeep's post. I highly doubt he would have done that if he was a cop.

I think we are down to mole.

[jeep]

Antrax:

1) I felt that I was at greater risk of being killed by the mafia than just random because I parked a vote on IS first day and because several people have revealed themselves as not the cop (IMO).

2) I re-ran the numbers including No Lynch as an option and it was better that I reveal

Mole is the only person who hasn't posted without denouncing me.

-JEEP