Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Like that Fonz surely isn't scum with me (unless... does CKD, Fonz and me make sense? Big gambit, and not true, incidentally, but is it hypothetically possible?)

Actually no, in such a situation Fonz has to bus one of the two of you. So he easily could have hammered at that time if he felt like it.

But probably wouldn't have. The basic scenario is still very implausible and hardly worth considering at this time though.

[curiouskarmadog]

And how have I been damaging adele? By jailing you? I didnt jail you last night and no one targetted you, how am I damaging? How is jailing DGB damaging?

I think you've confused yourself; your fakeclaim this morning was that you jailed CES, not DGB.

you know that was a typo, I jailed CES, I notice how you totally ignore the question, how is my jailing you or CES damaging? Please explain how I am damaging to the town.

If someone besides CKD presents any arguments against me, I'm happy to try to refute them (heck, CKD too, if he promises not to give me 500 essay-length ones; like I say, I have limited time, and I'm really sorry about that,

hey a reason to lurk, you do however have plenty of time to post junk in the GD.

Well, duh. The thing about posting junk is it takes minimal analysis, thought or time, so i can intersperse it with my other online responsibilities.

so you agree, you have given yourself a reason to lurk.

Adele/Shafted/Cicero…Fonz confirms Cicero N3, so Cicero did not submit the kill last night. Adele watched to see if anyone else targeted Yvonne, shafted submitted the kill. Adele covers shafted by saying he targeted Yvonne...this could work, especially Night one, Cicero could have submitted the kill and claimed to have networked shafted. Cicero could have submitted the kill Night 2, and claimed to have targeted Adele, Adele who had watched (

but failed because I jailed her, could have told Cicero before the day started in a PM that her watched failed

). Also shafted could have submitted the kill N2 but I doubt it. This pairing could really work.

Regarding the bold: No, I couldn't. When I get the information PM from the mod, the night is over. I have

never

deliberately broken any site rules, and would

never

communicate with scumbuddies during a no-contact period.

I don’t know when you are given information, you say when you are given information the night is over…how do I know that? Does Seol send you the information, THEN open the day? I don’t know. I am not implying that you are cheating, but I don’t know WHEN you are given the information. I assume Seol can send PMs and open the thread at the same time…at any rate, I not leaning toward Cicero any more…I think DGB is more likely.

To me the only pairing that really could work (ie makes sense) is Adele/Shafted/Cicero, followed by Adele/DGB/Shafted....and then MAYBE Adele/Shafted/CES

Interesting. I look forward to someone doing this sort of analysis on CKD... but seriously, i'm not the one to do it; you would experience the same sort of pain from my attempting that as we got from the above "If Fonz then CKD" fiasco.

And, no, CKD, it's not appropriate to try to get people to vote a certain way by promising them something after the game ends - regardless of whether that something is money, chocolates, or another stupid thread to clutter the GD up with. knowing how people generally post, though, and trying to read them, is part of the game.

If it is inappropriate, then I take back the offer. I have done it before in another game to call scum's bluff and that Mod said it was OK (cicero can verify)

What is your thoughts on the Adele/DGB/Shafted grouping..noticed you didn’t find anything wrong with that.

Also Adele, why arent you scum hunting today...arent you interesting in who my scum partners are? Why are you maximizing today to the best of your ability? Just want to throw your fake claim out there and hope for the best?

[shaft.ed]

Also Adele, why arent you scum hunting today...arent you interesting in who my scum partners are?

QFT

[The Fonz]

Cicero: As far as I can tell he has not been available to perform a kill on any given night. On N1 he targeted me. On N2 he knew of Adele's jailing before it was public. Since notice of Adele's watching failures are not given to her until minutes before the Day breaks it is highly unlikely she would have been able to inform Cicero. Thus the only way Cicero knew about Adele being jailed was either because he targeted her or CKD is scum with him. On N3 he seems to have targeted The Fonz and I have a PM containing the dice roll by which he made this decision (I can post it in thread if anyone wants to check its legitimacy). Thus unless Cicero is scum with The Fonz and he got lucky on rolling his dice in his PM to me he was not available to perform the kill last night either. Conclusion Cicero is very unlikely to have performed a NK, this is despite his ability being quite useful for performing a NK and creating an alibi if scum by either "networking" with fellow scum or "attempting to network" with the NK target.

In the scenario where all of me, you and CKD are town, sure. If either you or CKD is scum, from my perspective, cicero is free to kill on a particular night. I don't believe networking a buddy on night one is optimal play, however.

CES: No Night actions so no way to confirm what he's "doing" at night.

Risky choice for NK as he cannot excuse his way out of a watching.

Was available to make the kill on N1 and N2 but was jailed by CKD if Adele is scum. I personally believe the choice of a ZONEACE kill N1 leans in favor of CES based on TSQ's attempts to paint ZA as scummy.

Not being funny here, but who can? The only possibilities i can see are the watchers and cicero, and even then, if they're the only ones seen at the scene of a mafia kill, they're obvscum. (In the case of a watcher/watcher confrontation, at least one is scum).

DGB: No confirmable night actions. Claimed to have targeted Gorgon N1, CES N2 and noone N3. Was likely to be jailed N3 so possible scum wouldn't have attempted to use her for the NK. Useful abilities for scum so valuable to keep alive. ZA kill N1 would be potntially suboptimal play for DGB scumgroup.

Potentially, though it also depends on who else is scum.

Adele/Cicero/CES: N1 Adele or CES would have to make the kill. Cicero would be the logical choice for the NK of this group as Adele and CES would both have no business targeting anyone N1, but I can confirm cicero targeted me.

Again, there is basically no-one, regardless of role, that can be seen visiting a mafia NK and live.

N2 CES would be required to have killed Mathcam in order for cicero to know that Adele was jailed. Seems odd that he would actually network with a scum buddy and not simply use it as an alibi while performing a NK.

This is a decent point. If you're not going to be doing the kill, it's probably optimal to have a town player as your alibi.

N3 cicero again has a confirmed alibi, and CES was jailed so Adele would have to make the kill and be prepared to manufacture a claim. Going last in claim chain would have helped, but quite easy for her to have claimed a watch on Fonz as cicero could supply this information. In this case claim on Yvonne would have been partially improvised. Summary don't find this grouping likely.

THe caveat here is that it's entirely possible Adelescum had 'saw cicero targetting Fonz' lined up as a safeclaim, but when finding herself last had the opportunity to frame CKD. This group does kinda make sense in an odd way- imagine the scenario where scum cicero demonstrates that town fonz is not scum with Adele, in order to make Adele seem less likely to be lying. I don't actually think it's likely, though. I've gotten a pretty town read off cic today.

Adele/cicero/DGB: N1 Adele or DGB have to make the kill. Again I don't know why 1) cicero wouldn't make the kill in this instance and 2) why the tracker would be targeted when they have a tracker immune player available in DGB.

Again, I don't see why you wouldn't have someone who CAN get himself an alibi do so, and someone who couldn't be alibied in any case do the kill.

N2 DGB would have to be the killer. Choice of Mathcam makes the watcher an unlikely problem. Can also reasonably expect no Doc protect on Cam. DGB is a good choice for the kill as Adele would have to manufacture targets while cicero has his alibi production.

True, although you have the DGB-likely-jailing issue.

Notice that cicero in this pairing would have to have generally targeted Adele for networking to know that CKD jailed her. Seems a bit odd for scum to do. N3, cicero again has a confirmed alibi in The Fonz. DGB is a likely jailer target so Adele would have to make the kill. As above she would have knowledge of The Fonz if needed for her claim. Switching to Yvonne would likely be impromptu.

True. Like you said earlier, I wouldn't, as scum in cicero's position, target buddies on days I wasn't killing. Save them for the days you are.

Adele/CES/DGB: N1 noone in this scum group would have any business targeting anybody. However, no night actions are confirmable so everyone would be available for the kill. Seems as though CES would be my likely choice for as Adele would likely be kept around by the town for utility and DGB could be useful for scum down the road.

Any of these make as much sense as any other, to be honest.

N2 Adele is jailed so either CES or DGB have to make the kill. DGB claims a targeting of CES, seems a little weird for scum buddies to target one another to make an "alibi," it's not as if CES knew of anyone targeting him. So CES or DGB could have made the kill. N3 CES is jailed, and DGB would have to be worried about jailing. Adele then would have to make the kill and thus would have to completely fabricate watching results. This seems incredibly NOT worth the risk. However, I do think it's valid that she could deduce I had targeted Yvonne since she was not motivated and that The Fonz would target her in order to pass on Doc powers.

Er... no. She has no way of knowing whether I or Yvonne has been motivated, until I claimed. However, once I claimed it was a fair deduction.

The assumption in the above that I'm most worried about is that the scum were worried that DGB would be jailed. If they didn't care all too much about getting a kill logged than DGB would still be a viable choice to perform the NK even though she may end up jailed. It's not as if the town passing on powers would be of any detriment to Adelescum. In fact receiving Doc powers would allow her to fabricate targets easier than her current restriction to watcher night choices.

Yes and no. Prior to last night, getting stopped was a genuine worry. LAst night, however, scum doesn't lose that much by having DGB jailed- since she was a reasonable NK target as well as a reasonable NKer.

Anyway, none of the scum pairings above look stellar. Cicero has alibi's on all nights although it'd be very logical for him to perform a kill while creating a false alibi with a scumbuddy (unless his scumbuddies are likely watcher targets). I'd posit Adele/CES/DGB as most likely. And I realize that I'm a far better candidate than the others discussed above.

Conclusion, I think this analysis detracts from the idea that Adele is scum.

This is a fair conclusion, but only from shaft.ed's own point of view, if he is town.

Due to potential conflicts with roleblocking etc, I do not inform any player that they have been motivated until all night choices have been submitted - then the motivation confirmation is provided, and 24 hours allowed for the submission of the motivated choice. Motivation does not allow an additional kill to be submitted, and submitting a kill prevents powers being used at all on a given night.

This certainly changes things. So Adele scum wouldn't have known if she was getting motivated or if Yvonne was. And we already know she doesn't find out about The Fonz targeting until Dawn. I guess she would have been expecting an incoming round of motivation. Don't know how that bodes for Adelescum wanting to target Yvonne.

The conclusion from this is that if Adelescum wished to perform the kill herself, she would have to have two fake watchings prepared just in case. If she's scum with cicero, then she has 'saw cicero targetting fonz' as one, but I'm not sure I can see any other claim that is safe. She'd basically be committing to claiming to have caught Yvonne's killer redhanded from the get-go. In that case, CKD is pretty much the only option for a framing i think? She'd have to rely on CKD being sufficiently cowed by the criticism yesterday to avoid the power roles. That's not a horrible assumption for adelescum there, i don't think, but it does really limit her options.

CKD if you are going to throw accusations of me being scum around please back them up. My play N1 was very much not in the scums best interest if I'm paired with Adele. My options would have been 1) target the Nk'd tracker, a bit obvious but won't cause any issues and won't make my partner have to falsify results, 2) target the Doc who would likely pass his power on to my partner which is a much much better situation than having to fabricate investigation results, or 3) create a double watcher who will force my partner into fabricating watching results each night.

This is a reasonably decent point. Motivating me seems to be an obviously superior play for a shaft.ed/Adele scumteam than motivating Yvonne.

Since shaft.ed is the one providing most of the analysis, I'll look over potential Shaft.ed/Adele pairings in the near future.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and:

I understand, but unless his scumbuddies are bus'ing him, which is quite reasonable given that he was fingered in the NK, then there are too many people willing to lynch him.

Unless scum are doing something that is entirely reasonable for them to do in this situation, he's likely town?

[curiouskarmadog]

fonz, interested in your thoughts in my scum pairings as well.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Frankly, I'm not really seeing much useful discussion here: just useless setup-theoretic blathering with little to no relevance to the actual situation at hand.

It's about time we decided, methinks. And I'm plenty confident.

Time to lynch us some scum.

Vote: curiouskarmadog

[curiouskarmadog]

with DGB waiting in the wings...this will be over shortly

[The Fonz]

Your scum pairings are fairly obvious.

DGB for sure, then one of CES and shaft.ed. If I had to gamble the game on one other player being town right now, it'd be cicero. If he's scum, he's played possibly the weirdest scumgame I've ever seen.

[shaft.ed]

Oh, and:

I understand, but unless his scumbuddies are bus'ing him, which is quite reasonable given that he was fingered in the NK, then there are too many people willing to lynch him.

Unless scum are doing something that is entirely reasonable for them to do in this situation, he's likely town?

Shhh I thought I was onto something.

[curiouskarmadog]

Also, once the game is over and if one fucking person says the town loss is my fault I will go ape shit..(cicero sort of implied that pages ago)...just telling you up front.

[shaft.ed]

Frankly, I'm not really seeing much useful discussion here: just useless setup-theoretic blathering with little to no relevance to the actual situation at hand.

It's about time we decided, methinks. And I'm plenty confident.

Time to lynch us some scum.

Vote: curiouskarmadog

I'm honestly at a point where I think CKD and Adele are just as likely to be scum. I've got a bit of work to do, but I'd rather not lynch today. I haven't slept for about 40 hours now with 4 hours the night before that. Not thinking incredibly clearly at the moment.

[shaft.ed]

Also, once the game is over and if one fucking person says the town loss is my fault I will go ape shit..(cicero sort of implied that pages ago)...just telling you up front.

No if town loses this is clearly on Mathcam, useless bastard.

[curiouskarmadog]

shafted, as I think you are scum..you might want to wait..DGB is posting on site..I am sure that vote will be coming.

[shaft.ed]

shafted, as I think you are scum..you might want to wait..DGB is posting on site..I am sure that vote will be coming.

Well I'd be more than happy to sit here and not hammer. If I hadn't been posting in my other game at the time, I would have been cleared along with Fonz yesterday.

[curiouskarmadog]

we'll see

[DrippingGoofball]

I have to agree with CES. Must think a few minutes here.

[DrippingGoofball]

Also, once the game is over and if one fucking person says the town loss is my fault I will go ape shit..(cicero sort of implied that pages ago)...just telling you up front.

I have to admit this sounds like a cornered scum hissy fit.

[curiouskarmadog]

well DGB just vote me then...and see.

[DrippingGoofball]

You're at lynch minus 2, right? This is a fun experiment in timing.

[shaft.ed]

it is isn't it

[The Fonz]

DGB looks for all the world like she's waiting for the signal to co-ordinate a quicklynch.

vote: Adele

I'm calling Adele, DGB and shaft.ed.

[curiouskarmadog]

look, shafted is waiting..if he is your scum buddy like I am thinking..you two got me..just put an end to it, because the rest of the town doesnt really give a crap or there would be more analysis going on. I have put too much energy in this game as it is.

[shaft.ed]

Notice how I'm not voting for you

[curiouskarmadog]

I see shafted..but I am not at -1 yet am I?...