Mafia 107 - Christmas Time Mafia (Game over)

[DocPotter]

I've said it a few times now, and it's purely target selection.
I might be wrong, but if I am that's one hell of a targeting job for an SK. Kinda runs counter to what little I know about the role.

(That and Richards protect/RB combination, along with a CMAR jailing could explain a vig/SK R2R missing 3 nights out of 4. Remember CMAR claimed to know something in his 'Bah!' post)

CKD, you're the most experienced player left I believe. Do you have reasons for thinking different?

CKD, I was in Mafia 104, which was won by an SK and directly led to a couple of threads in the Mafia discussion forum. First 5 SK kills were town, including PR's. Though if I'm honest, Scum were pretty bloody good in that game) Don't think there were any other games with SK's, except one possible that's still running.

CKD, remember I had this spot earlier in the game and replaced for reasons to do with other games. But I don't see CSL giving up the role.

As for R2R, I'm happy to see what happens over night

[Tarballs]

3rd Vote Count of Day 5

1 - ready2rock

(RichardGHP)

1 - CCARaven4

(ready2rock)

1 - DocPotter

(Konowa)

4 - Not voting

(curiouskarmadog, CCARaven4, DocPotter, sorasgoof)


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for this day is March 9th, 2010.

[curiouskarmadog]

well, right now, we have someone claiming to be the vig/popper. If you think that the slicer is the vig, why do you think they havent come forward? At this point in the game, it will only be advantageous (for town) to have all killing roles come forward. There is ABSOLUTELY no town reason for a slicer/vig to not come forward at this time. If R2R claimed to be a doc right now...I would hope that if there was another doc, they would counter.....same thing with a cop. Your theory doesnt hold here Doc...that being said....

AGAIN, I dont want this lost...if you are a vig/slicer you need to counter R2R's claim right now. If you know R2R is lying (not the vig), only you can catch him to help us.

[Konowa]

@DocPotter: You are just reaching for a reason to keep r2r as a possible lynch now.

I'll give you one though. Nico's D1 voting pattern kinda looks a little like scum bussing. RVS vote for scum for example. (Though I didn't see that until after I came back into the game.)

I think this is more bad reasoning. You are using hindsight justification using information not known till later on in the game to try and create a reason for N2.

[sorasgoof]

How many potential mislynches do we have? If we mislynch today, that'll probably leave us with five total players tomorrow, with the SK and four townies. If we mislynch tomorrow, we'll probably have three players left the following day, the SK and three townies.

The reason I bring this up is to highlight the point that if we guess wrong today, it really isn't detrimental. Also, any lynch at this point, along with the night kill, would be hugely informational.

[Konowa]

Your math is correct soras, you just worded it a little wrong.

How many potential mislynches do we have? If we mislynch today, that'll probably leave us with five total players tomorrow, with the SK and four townies. If we mislynch tomorrow, we'll probably have three players left the following day, the SK and

three

two

townies.

Fixed.

The above scenario is working under the assumption that there is only the SK left. While this is the most likely of situations (6:1) vs (5:1:1), if we do have a mafia left, a mislynch today, a mafia kill on town, and a SK kill on town, would leave us at (2:1:1) and put town in a no-win situation.

That being said we should work under the assumption that we only have one mislynch.

[Konowa]

@soras: Thoughts on recent discussion?

[curiouskarmadog]

if it is all the same, I would rather just win the game today.

[curiouskarmadog]

vote Raven

[sorasgoof]

@soras: Thoughts on recent discussion?

Each player has done scummy things, myself included, and we really don't have much to go on. I didn't know hunting for an SK was that much different than hunting for mafia, but apparently it is. I'm not getting (m)any reads from anyone.

I'd be happy with the lynch of basically anyone, other than R2R, Richard, and myself, three people that I believe to not be the SK (well, I KNOW I'm not). Like I said, any death at this point would provide useful information, if nothing other than, "Oh, well I guess it can't be him."

Would it be in our best interests if everyone claimed? I've given up hope on a cop, and I'm pretty sure there isn't a doctor left. I'm most interested in knowing what the two neighbors' roles are, if they have any other role than just neighbor.

[sorasgoof]

@Everyone

I might not be able to get back on until tomorrow sometime. Sorry. Hopefully you guys find something new while I'm gone.

[DocPotter]

Kon, hence my entire reason for suggesting a no-lynch, because a mis-lynch with a mafia left can put us in a town loosing endgame.

What makes you think that Raven is the SK?

[curiouskarmadog]

Dont like his play in that past or current play.

His quick reaction change to R2R claim (from "I find that hard to believe" to "it seems legit")

and out of everyone in the lynch pool (myself, raven, doc, Kon)...I find him the scummiest.

[CCARaven4]

@ckd: I found it hard to believe at first because I didn't think he would want to target somebody who was almost lynched before the Mr. Crowley incident, but after he explained everything about who he killed and why and that he got blocked at certain points, it seemed legit.

I'm going to go back to my vote from earlier, I'm not really liking Kon's play the last two or three RL days.

vote: Konowa

[curiouskarmadog]

what dont you like about it?

[RichardGHP]

Unvote; Vote: CCARaven4

.

At this point I'm willing to lynch a VT claim moreso than a vig claim. r2r could be lying, but IMO we should keep him alive and test him tonight. Assuming that this isn't MyLo, I don't think No-Lynch will help much.

[CCARaven4]

what dont you like about it?

He didn't post for quite some time, which alleviated some of the suspicion from him, and while this isn't always a scum tell, I think it is this time.

[CCARaven4]

Unvote; Vote: CCARaven4

.

At this point I'm willing to lynch a VT claim moreso than a vig claim. r2r could be lying, but IMO we should keep him alive and test him tonight. Assuming that this isn't MyLo, I don't think No-Lynch will help much.

Yesterday, when pman was still alive, I would have actually supported my own lynch because it would have outed him as scum. Now that he has already been outed, and you said earlier that you are 90% sure I am town, what changed your mind, other than the VT claim vs. a vig claim. What about the people who haven't claimed?

[RichardGHP]

I said 90% for a reason. Out of those left, I think r2r is most likely an anti-town, but being that he's a provable, I don't think we should lynch him. You are next on my list. Upon second review I believe that it was in the realms of possibility for pman to bus so strangely, making you seem town.

Add to that, when I ISO'd you, you had only posted 25 times throughout the ENTIRE GAME, which had lasted for well over a month at that point. While I believe lurking to be a nulltell, doing it at this stage is almost the height of scumminess.

@Everyone: Would you be willing to massclaim at this point? IF not why?

[Konowa]

@Doc - You suggesting no-lynch earlier bothered me, but I could not pinpoint why. Now that I have thought it over some, it makes sense why you as SK would suggest no lynch. You yourself have already admitted that we are more likely in a 6:1 situation. No lynch at this point only benefits SK because it gives them a free kill.

@Raven - What you are saying is making no sense. In your 1688, you reason with that you do not like my play the last two or three real life days. Then when ckd asks you about it, you say that "while lurking is not always a scumtell, you think it is this time". Please explain to me how, with this being Wednesday, me posting on Monday and Tuesday [the past two real life days] equates into me lurking.

I still think Doc is the SK, but Raven's horrible reasoning and deflection [asking about people who have not claimed] makes me want to vote him. With only the SK likely to be left, I will hammer after ckd and Doc weigh in on claiming. That being said, I am fine with claiming.

[sorasgoof]

r2r could be lying, but IMO we should keep him alive and test him tonight.

Isn't this an odd night? We won't be able to test R2R tonight. It'll have to wait until night 6, if we make it that far.

Anyway, Raven is at L-1. Like I said, any lynch at this point will provide information, so I don't mind hammering, but I'm going to wait for more discussion. If you guys think all of the possible discussion has been had already, tell me and I'll vote.

What I'm really eager to see is the SK's night kill. I think that's our best possible option as a source of information right now.

Also, are the neighbors going to say whether or not they have another role? That could be very useful, too.

[sorasgoof]

EBWOP: Sorta ninja'd on a few points by Konowa. >__>

[curiouskarmadog]

ummm...not sure why everyone is talking about the future..and the SK's night kill..

if Raven is the SK, we shouldnt have a "tomorrow"...

(bothered)

[sorasgoof]

ummm...not sure why everyone is talking about the future..and the SK's night kill..

if Raven is the SK, we shouldnt have a "tomorrow"...

(bothered)

Yeah. Key word: if

If he isn't, do you not think the night kill will be informative?

[RichardGHP]

Oh, my bad, forgot that tonight is Night 5. >.<