Mini Normal 1775 END!

ToastyToast · Post Post #1650 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 1:40 pm

In post 1648, mhsmith0 wrote:Actually... one other question (I know, I know, it's annoying). Is it standard procedure for a sub to be told the results of his slot's prior night actions? On MU (I play some there too) it's not, so I'd like confirmation of site norms here. If it's not standard operating procedure here, we may have caught our last mafia. If it is standard operating procedure, then never mind.

I've always been told upon replacement.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1651 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 1:42 pm

Figured as much. Worth a shot though.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1652 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 2:58 pm

Voting highlights:

1) Relying ONLY on flips

Spoiler: with flips only

2) From my perspective (with me as town, and presuming that alone's JOAT claim holds up):

Spoiler: with me and alone as town

Current thoughts:

Thoughts:
MHS / alone:
1) Alone is non-CC'd PR in a game which seems pretty likely to have at least three town PR's. He's also gotten a cop result on me of town, which makes me town unless I'm a godfather (which is no longer normal; that switched after game start, so it's not lock, but two mafia PR's strikes me as really weird unless we've got more town PR's who are slow-rolling). So I'm pretty cool assuming both me and alone are town barring something substantive arguing otherwise.

General thoughts:
1) It's REALLY weird that no one still alive was on both the boon and Garmr wagons. I was sort of on the boon wagon (helped drive it up then hopped off post PR claim), so I guess I'm the closest to that model of the last mafia? Good thing I've got that cop clear I guess

Lowell
1) Lowell and Boon being the ONLY two wolf votes on a Sakura wagon that was going NOWHERE is awfully odd if true. Possible explanation being that Lowell was gone towards EOD.
2) Post D1 Lowell wagons have tended to be awfully pure, and never QUITE got to the point where he was in serious danger of a hammer (though he was in danger on D1). That feels like a suspicion point to me.
3) Alone's "lowell stayed home on N3" result isn't clearing, but is a small plus point. I can see the "well the jig is up with Garmr getting JK caught so Garmr does all the kills" logic, so it's a minor point, but it's not totally zero.

Sakura/Riabi
1) VERY little pressure on that slot post Boon lynch. If that's bussing for town credit, it's worked beautifully.
2) Interestingly, that slot post D2 has been well away from the main wagons. Very plausible bus+coast strategy.

GLW/Dierfire
1) This slot has been voting confirmed town a LOT. On Madonna EOD1, on CT EOD2, on Exp EOD3, only vote on a mafia/unknown was Garmr on EOD4.
2) Didn't push the "statistical" case on Garmr so much as essentially sheeped it after I made it (spent quite a lot of time digging into the specifics of the numbers, as opposed to the fundamental issue of "it's about 50%, that's way higher than 25%"). I don't have a problem with him doing any of this (we got Garmr after all), but I don't consider it especially clearing. I got the "let's vote Garmr or Lowell" sense from him, and if he was the third, in a board with a decent number of people suspecting Garmr, it makes reasonable sense as a mafia to try and trade Garmr for Lowell and hope the created town credit holds up (or that town is out of ideas on MYLO).
3) The Texcat NK may point to him in an interesting manner. He'd explicitly town read texcat at 1591; in a board which was suspecting her, that might have been something he didn't really want to deal with going forward. That's a bit WIFOM-y though. Minor point more than anything.

Knight/Toast
1) Was on Lowell EOD1 along with Garmr. Worth digging into to see if it was an awkward voting pair, but it'd be a bit odd for buddies to stay bunched together like that on a wagon that was that far out of style.
2) First on boon D2, but 682 and 683 don't really have the feel of bussing.
3) Pushed back against Garmr lynch.

Overall conclusions:
1) I'm town, I've seen nothing like a CC (or "that role wouldn't be normal/balanced in this game" argument) against alone, so that makes him town.
2) I'm not 100% town reading toast, but right now I feel like he's the least likely mafia of those remaining, barring something notable pointing against knight on the D1 lowell vote, or anything else on toast on re-read.
3) PoE right now is: Dier, Lowell, Riabi, in some order. Not sure which order yet. Need to think on things a lot more.

Anyway, that's where I'm at and where my PoE is at. Alone likes the Riabi wagon. Lowell doesn't like the (currently nonexistent) Lowell wagon. Toast says PoE is alone, Lowell, Riabi. Where is everyone else at?

Lowell · Post Post #1653 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 3:43 pm

I'll catch this when I get to work tomorrow. Skim reveals a lot of ppl trying really hard to convince themselves I could be scum. Don't overthink. Will find answer tomorrow.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1654 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 4:26 pm

Lowell, Dier, Riabi, Toast, can you link your last couple town and mafia sided completed games? I won't get around to meta diving ASAP, but I may over the next few days and would rather not have to add "finding the right games" to my task list. (Lowell's user page http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lowell seems to either be out of date or not easily sorted).

PS @Lowell: you clearly COULD be the last wolf, but I'm not especially sold on any of the three in my PoE right now. So at least as far as I'm concerned, there's plenty of room for you to argue the point.

FA_Q2 · Post Post #1655 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 4:36 pm

In post 1648, mhsmith0 wrote:Actually... one other question (I know, I know, it's annoying). Is it standard procedure for a sub to be told the results of his slot's prior night actions? On MU (I play some there too) it's not, so I'd like confirmation of site norms here. If it's not standard operating procedure here, we may have caught our last mafia. If it is standard operating procedure, then never mind.

I will confirm that it is standard here to receive the prior night actions of the slot that you have replaced in.

heuristically_alone · Post Post #1656 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 6:04 pm

Thanks for the research mhsmith. Helps a lot. I had read Dierfire as town before, but I can see that possibilty of scum as well. Might be a minor detail, but I think whoever had read texcat as town is a good bet as the mafia that killed texcat last night.

Lowell · Post Post #1657 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 3:24 am

In post 1654, mhsmith0 wrote:Lowell, Dier, Riabi, Toast, can you link your last couple town and mafia sided completed games? I won't get around to meta diving ASAP, but I may over the next few days and would rather not have to add "finding the right games" to my task list. (Lowell's user page http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lowell seems to either be out of date or not easily sorted).

PS @Lowell: you clearly COULD be the last wolf, but I'm not especially sold on any of the three in my PoE right now. So at least as far as I'm concerned, there's plenty of room for you to argue the point.

There's no point to argue. Me being scum makes no sense whatsoever. Move on.

My page probably is out of date. For that matter, I didn't know I had a page. Basically I took about five years off and just restarted a few months ago. I've finished a few games since I've been back, but godspeed looking through all that crap.

Dierfire · Post Post #1658 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 7:21 am

@Alone

Are you certain that you've accurately reported all actions and results? You should check.

---
In any case I agree that mhsmith0 should be Town here.

Dierfire · Post Post #1659 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 7:31 am

@mhsmith0

You asked me for previous games.

TOWN

Newbie 1698 is the most recent Town game and is a nice short one. I died N1.
Mini 1774 is a bit odd with roles and mechanics. It was not a fantastic game for me.
Mini 1779 had a known SK but otherwise was a pretty good game for me.

MAFIA

Mini 1773 is a nice short one--I was shot N1 by a JOAT.
Newbie 1674 is one that I entered late, for which I apologize, but I haven't drawn Mafia in a game that I played from the start for quite some time!
Mini 1709 is an old one, and I also entered late.

heuristically_alone · Post Post #1660 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 8:49 am

N1 Investigated mhsmith
N2 No action
N3 Watched Lowell (took no action)
N4 Commuted and left for the night

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1661 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 10:17 am

*eagerly awaiting wherever this may end up going*

Lowell · Post Post #1662 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 3:31 am

bored

Lowell · Post Post #1663 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 3:38 am

Offhand thoughts:

heuristically_alone: buying the claim, town
Riabi: looks scummy, but meh still think predecessor's argument w/ boon was real, town
mhsmith0: buying h_a's claim, town despite obvscumminess
texcat: totally forgettable player, tried to string me up instead of garmr, scummy
Dierfire: I don't remember what's happening here
ToastyToast: early townreads, town

VOTE: dier

If not, then tex. Either one is fine.

Lowell · Post Post #1664 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 3:41 am

dierscum > texscum mostly based on iso. dier talks about associations too much for my liking. in my experience this is a way for scum to muddy the waters and avoid taking strong, clear stances on (individual) players.

come tangle with me, dier... we'll see who survives....

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1665 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 3:45 am

Tex is dead. Are you paying attention at all Lowell?
Ps what's my obvscumminess?

Lowell · Post Post #1666 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 3:47 am

oh, no, I guess not. Just went by the "alive" list on page 1. blame the mod, not me.

I dont' care to describe your obvscumminess. I believe the claim and therefore your innocence, so it's pointless. but put it this way, had you not been cleared you'd have TERMINAL LOWELLITIS (tm)!

Lowell · Post Post #1667 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 3:48 am

in any event, tex being dead makes this easier. dier is the answer.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1668 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 5:15 am

In post 1666, Lowell wrote:oh, no, I guess not. Just went by the "alive" list on page 1. blame the mod, not me.

Given that it's been a topic of discussion today, I'm gonna have to go with

derpclear denied

(that may be my new favorite mafia phrase btw

)

PS You may enjoy http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7885399. Well, presuming alone's claim holds up, I guess there's about a 25% chance you won't...

But more seriously, how familiar are you with the rest of the field? Who here has a bad night game?

ToastyToast · Post Post #1669 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 6:02 am

In post 1631, mhsmith0 wrote:@all: If I understand correctly, h_a is claiming some form of JOAT. Is it "normal" to have both a town-aligned JOAT and a town-aligned JK in this size game?

It can be considered "normal" in terms of game set up but it does seem a little OP. @h_a: did you say what powers you had already/if you've used any?
As for using the cop thing first night, idk. I've never seen the order in which someone uses one shots as important.

In post 1636, mhsmith0 wrote:@Toast: can you give us an update of your chart? And which of those three slots (leader/sheep/lurker) would you put yourself in, and why?

In post 1644, heuristically_alone wrote:Can you both give me your town reads as of the end of the day yesterday, including that of texcat?

Both list and reads. I was scum reading mhs and texcat. Now I think mhs is town too and think scum is between riabi and alone. Not ruling out lowell because he's a hard to read troll (and I can see him making a flop texcat NK). I also worry how a 2 v 1 would go with lowell at the end. I was null on Garmr yesterday and probably would have put my vote on mhsmith.

The Leader:

Almost50, Expedience,

Garmr

, Riabi
The Sheep:

chilledtea

,

mhsmith0

,

texcat

The Lurker:

Boonskies

,

dierfire

, Lowell, Alone

As you can see, if this were a predicted scum team, mhs would be the last member. But this would not make much sense given yesterday. Plus I think mhs has been proactive town today, using the town read people have on him to push the game forward (scum can do this too but it reads town in this case). Given the amount of replacements in this game, having 2 lurkers is definitely a possibility. I don't change someone's slot on the list based on replacement but I probably should.

In post 1645, mhsmith0 wrote:@all: if we believe alone's claim, then we had a JK, AND a JOAT, AND a universal backup. Is that normal/balanced? I'll admit not really being familiar with how this tends to work, but that seems a bit unbalanced off the cuff, especially given that mafia's day chat depended on one specific role staying alive. Throw in Garmr hammering right after alone voted... I dunno.

No, too much power. I'm VT btw.

I'll find some of my games in a bit. But the info in my signature area is correct lol. I've been on this website for almost 6 years and have STILL only been mafia twice.

Lowell · Post Post #1670 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 6:20 am

@smith- I'm not really familiar with anyone. I've only been back on the site for a couple of months, and all y'alls newbies to me.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1671 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 6:28 am

FWIW, right now I get the sense dier is going to in some manner counter-claim alone. I am 100% not voting ANYONE until that situation gets cleared up.

Frankly, a game where mafia has a PR (apparently it's generally "normal" for it to be night talk only barring a PR like we have, unless I'm misunderstanding site norms somehow) and town only has a JK and a backup seems strangely mafia-sided compared to site norms (based on my admittedly half-assed research). Whether what seems like a pretty mediocre JOAT (cop/tracker/commuter) makes up for it or not, or instead overpowers the town, that I don't know.

Other info: I am not counter-claiming alone at this time. I am making no claim at all with respect to my role at this time.

PS FWIW, I firmly believe that my sig (courtesy of the anti head of the KC hydra, from the only non-turbo game I've ever actually been on the winning side of) does not apply in this game. Hopefully we win and I can get a sig less embarrassing than this one.

PPS My sig points to my games. My off-site games shouldn't be hard to find given the info there (the wiki won't let me link directly off site for whatever reason).

heuristically_alone · Post Post #1672 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 6:32 am

In post 1669, ToastyToast wrote:@h_a: did you say what powers you had already/if you've used any?

In post 1660, heuristically_alone wrote:N1 Investigated mhsmith
N2 No action
N3 Watched Lowell (took no action)
N4 Commuted and left for the night

heuristically_alone · Post Post #1673 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 6:35 am

In post 1654, mhsmith0 wrote:Lowell, Dier, Riabi, Toast, can you link your last couple town and mafia sided completed games?

Mafia would have more motivation to answer this call, while a town would be like whatever I'm town and that's too much work so it won't matter, even though it seems towny to oblige to this request. So far, Dier is the only to respond.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1674 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2016 6:44 am

In post 1673, heuristically_alone wrote:Mafia would have more motivation to answer this call, while a town would be like whatever I'm town and that's too much work so it won't matter, even though it seems towny to oblige to this request. So far, Dier is the only to respond.

not really. I mean I've basically implied that I was likely going to start meta diving people (and the fact that I DID meta dive boon suggests that I'll likely follow through), and that it'd be considerate to let me avoid some of the work involved in simply finding the games. Off the top of my head, I don't find it especially AI whether someone is considerate or not about this sort of request; why do you think it's mafia-indicative to oblige? I mean, I kind of think it'd be a dumb mafia strategy to stonewall on this since I'm clearly going to try to find the relevant games anyway, but then again, two of the three NK's we've seen this game seemed dumb to me, and the third wasn't a good kill so much as it was a super-obvious kill (Garmr bitching about the N1 kill decision suggests that one also might have been dumb, but that's WIFOM-y so I'm fine with ignoring that piece of evidence at this time).

PS Have you ever fake claimed as mafia before? Trust me, I'm going to look. Might as well answer it now so I don't have to waste my time looking.