Now that I've got that out of my system.
armlx wrote:LF, I'm not advocating a clean sweep. I was actually going to jump on anyone who said that without a good reason (for example, SpyreX if he hadn't made the "look at how all the wagons on them keep failing" note). But I was making the point that a larger then average proportion of scum probably is in that group. I'd bet 2-3 of the 4 are scum.
Yes. There is more likely than not scums in that mix. The question is finding out who and why. I dont think anyone would want powerlynches on them all (except me, but). It is suspicious that the lynches have failed over and over and thats one thing I'm going to get into later this post.
TSPN wrote:In your opinion, what is the difference in scumminess between spyrex's hammer and you putting KoC at L-1?
TS, if I could I'd reach out and give you a cookie. Even though he was L-2 that doesn't change the fact that every vote on a wagon, ultimately, shares the same amount of responsibility for the lynch. We need to look at every player on a lynch and WHY they were on it and go from there.
Which is what I'm going to do now(This is going to be long):
1.) LlamaFluff (1137):
Internet ate my first post, this will be a more condensed version.
KoC seems the best path to be taking today, and his opening vote on K7 just strengthens that. I reread a lot of what happened yesterday and I think K7 probally is town that as LTG said "is being railroaded". Part of that thought comes from the lack of any defense people are giving him, even people like armlx who seemed have him leaning town voted him. Another is the way he didnt go with a shameless wagon of Corin, which that close to a deadline I would of expected to see. You can throw meta in there but I dont think its really needed.
The Corin wagon on the otherhand was fairly difficult to push, and when it was competing with the K7 wagon things were interesting. armlx is right in his recent post that put FoS on the people who abandoned K7 for Corin (SC and OP). The Corin wagon had much more resistance and hesitancy. The number overlap gives me pause too, out of the five people who put an FoS on Corin and K7 yesterday, four of them (SC, OP, TSN, FS) went with the Corin wagon. Out of those three players, two have posted (SC and FS) of which SC has returned to the K7 wagon and FS is discussing WIFOM.
The spread of the duel FoS people just feels like Corin was lynched when he could, and K7 is left for later.
In answer to CRFs question, my new third pick would be SC. He went back and forth between the K7 and Corin wagon quite a bit yesterday, and now that we had Corin flip town, has jumped right back into the K7 wagon. I still think KoC and manito should be our 1-2 lynch for the day. The cases that CFR and I have made on KoC still stand strong in my eyes, and manito has really done nothing to alleviate my early suspicions of him. He seemed to just stay out of the entire Corin-K7 wagon battle while calling them both town, but doing very little to make other cases appear better or either of the two main wagons appear poor.
In the end though KoC appears to be the better inital wagon so vote KoC
LLama talks a lot about the wagons of the day before. Considering how today is shaping up I went ahead and italicized where he called exactly this.
Overall, this is a vote on a case and doesn't ring any sirens.
Conclusion: Town.
2.) StrangerCoug (1241, 1368, 1553)
Vote Post 1:
Knight of Cydonia wrote:
Quite frankly, m'dear, if you are town, I'd be almost as happy to see you go. You're doing nothing by playing this way other than helping the Mafia.
Knight of Cydonia wrote:
Quote:
Which is why I don't worry as much about what he's saying. His vote is warranted, but I figured I'd point out the part where he's stating that he'd be happy to see me go even as town. That's NOT good, at all. But either way, I can't make much of it since my play has been horrid this game, so I just point it out so that it might be examined later.
I'm really glad you responded like this, forbiddan. Before, I had a 1% suspicion you might have been town. Now, it's somewhere around 0.00001%.
You've rather cleverly misinterpreted my post there. I said that I was pretty damn sure that you were scum, but that if you were town, you're doing us no help. I at no point said *bolded part*, I just stated that it makes no sense for a town player to do this, since it only helps the Mafia, and that if you were town, it wouldn't be a loss. I never said I was lynching you without caring if you were town or scum, which is what you've tried to imply.
I hate these two posts, especially in combination. I don't like how the wording of the first one comes off. Looking at them, yes, it does appear that forbiddanlight attempted to strawman Knight of Cydonia, but his defense doesn't match up well with the vibes I get from the first post.
Knight of Cydonia wrote:
Yeah, look, fl, we all know you're scum, or the most retarded townie ever, so stop trying to throw crap out there to try and get a townie lynch day 1.5.
This is confirmation bias.
Knight of Cydonia wrote:
Also, just one for the rest of the town to consider - look who leapt to FL's defence as soon as heat came down: Llama and CF Riot. That makes three. Could be perfectly innocent, but if FL flips scum, as I'm sure he would, we might be onto something.
More confirmation bias with guilt by association added to the mix.
Vote: Knight of Cydonia
I'm not getting anything scummy from Manito's posts in isolation, but LlamaFluff's case on him here still makes sense to me.
Now, this vote on KoC seems ok. Definitely not a strong case, but at least it is something.
Well, darn it, vote: Knight of Cydonia until he convinces me to move it! There! You happy!?
TheSweatpantsNinja wrote:
I'm confused as to the lack of an SC wagon.
I'm confused as to why you waited to contribute until after the mod started looking for someone to replace you, and even then, you're not adding anything new. Minor FoS: TheSweatpantsNinja.
Blah. Voting for pressure. Not much to say here. The FoS on TSPN is cute in rereading.
Now, the other SC vote:
Pfft. I asked for an updated PbPA on killa seven from Knight of Cydonia. I don't remember seeing it. Deadline's looming, and I don't see a Firestarter lynch in this half of the day.
Unvote: Firestarter
Vote: Knight of Cydonia
THIS IS LYNCH MINUS ONE.
Now, this one. Woo.
Switching your vote because he hasn't done a PbPA on K7? Blah, but maybe.
The other bit.
At this point, KoC had one whole more vote than Firestarter...which was made by Firestarter. The next post (30 minutes later) was this vote shifting it to L-1. Keep in mind one of the votes that tied it up was Arm who made it more than clear he would vote FS.
Wanna know why lynches keep stalling? Hello!
Verdict: Scummy. When FS comes up scum, mos' def scum.
3.) Killa Seven (1306)
vote KOC
For the record I want to make K7 a policy lynch so this shit doesn't happen more. I hope you're happy Arm in taking that side of our argument way back when.
Verdict: ? but I sure wouldn't shed a tear if he was dead either way.
4.) Orangepenguin (1406)
There was a quote pyramid leading up to this being him voting due to pressure from LF.
Fine. Vote: Knight of Cydonia.
Tomorrow, when it's not midnight, and I am more awake, I'll provide reasons.
Did we ever get the reasons from OP?
Verdict: Scummy unless I find / see the reasons.
5.) Armlx (1550)
Vote KoC
Lets get this game moving somewhere.
Truth. The game had been stagnating and this vote marked the shift. I, personally, dont see anything wrong with this.
Consensus: Armlx be town yo'
6.):roll: erstarter (1552)
Yup.... KoC likes his flavour of the day alright.... switching to "lynchables" when he can...
Im not gonna get a CFR lynch today, but Im happy to help lynch his buddy.
UNVOTE..
VOTE: Knight of Cydonia.
@ Manito...
1-10, how scummy do you think Koc has been, given your last statement....
And..
Are you saying that armlx has been just as scummy as Koc?
If so.. whats your case?
Note: This was the vote that took FS out of the lead.
KoC is scummy for voting for lynchables? Really?
Also, not really saying KoC is scummy but that he's got the potential to be CFR's scumbuddy... huh.
7.) SpyreX, Slayer of Tiamat, Duke of Awesome.
STOP
Hammertime!
Unvote, Vote: KoC
How could such a scummy hammer be let live? OHH MY GOD YOU GUYS SRSLY.
Ohh wait, thats me. KoC was scummy and I still dont feel bad.
Verdict: Townin' it up ins.
So, final analysis:
SC's multi-jumps on and off the wagon are suspect. His final reasons for voting are suspect and build a connection to FS.
Did OP ever explain his vote satisfactory? I also have seen OP connections to FS and SC.
FS is scum. When he flips both the above (who are already suspect) become even more so.
K7 is worthless and I wish he was dead long ago when I first brought it up - but the above are better lynches.
