Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mr Stoofer]

You guys obviously don't like replacements, do you? No sooner have Battle Mage and CrashTextDummie some into the game, but they have been kicked out! That's right, CTD was killed by the Mafia last night. Here is is card:

Seems like the Mafia may be losing their touch - they've failed to hit a power-role for the first time.

It is now Day 5. With 6 alive it will take 4 votes to lynch!

[Mgm]

Not all that surprising since we're fresh out of protown power roles.
Since CTD happened to be the only person who supported an MBL lynch and since MBL still hasn't justified doing himself what he finds suspicious in others I can't do anything but...

Vote: MBL

[Glork]

Meh. I was so disgusted with myself that I didn't even look at the thread overnight. A little surprised to see CTD bite the dust. I

think

that MBL is my top suspect, but at this point, I really have no idea what the hell I'm doing.

[Patrick]

Oh man. Lylo. Time to revaluate stuff. Don't be too trigger with votes please guys.

[Patrick]

I'm uncomfortable with Mgm's first post of the day. Still thinking about why CTD might have been killed and thinking about plausible scum pairings.

[Mgm]

Why uncomfortable? I wanted him dead yesterday and the night kill did nothing to change my mind, so I continue where I left off.

[Mgm]

I'm uncomfortable with Mgm's first post of the day. Still thinking about why CTD might have been killed and thinking about plausible scum pairings.

I'm considering a MBL, Patrick pairing at the moment... I wonder what pairings you have in mind.

[Patrick]

I was uncomfortable about your first post because I don't see how the CTD nightkill incriminates MBL especially. A bunch of people were suspicious of him yesterday. If Battle Mage had turned up scum, I would have been very suspicious of MBL who I thought looked like he was manufacturing reasons to slide onto the Battle Mage wagon. With Battle Mage turning up town, I'm less sure. He was still shifty on the Battle Mage wagon, but I'm trying to think of who could be scum with MBL. It's unlikely I can do that without some rereading. I still think Glork and Thesp are probably town.

[Mgm]

Actually, to me it looked like he was trying to do anything but hop on the BM wagon. I find your reasoning odd. Not lynching an innocent is a good thing. What I find suspicious about it, is that CDB was the only one who was willing to vote for a MBL lynch yesterday. Granted, Glork may be considering it now, but the fact CDB can't vote for MBL turns things in his favor because it makes lynching him significantly more difficult. That's what I find suspicious about the NK, but really that just adds to the suspicions I already have. I would've voted him if there'd been no death last night too.

[Patrick]

Actually, to me it looked like he was trying to do anything but hop on the BM wagon. I find your reasoning odd. Not lynching an innocent is a good thing.

You need to read what happened late yesterday then. MBL went from liking Battle Mage's analysis, to pointing out some flaws in it, to thinking he was probably scum in a short space of time. Had Battle Mage been scum, I would imagine MBL was trying to play both sides of the coin as Glork suggested, before trying to bus Battle Mage. Of course, we know now that Battle Mage was town anyway.

As for CTD being suspicious of MBL yesterday, I would say pretty much everyone alive now was suspicious of MBL yesterday.

[Glork]

I think that CES and Thesp need to come out of the shadows and actually *do* something today.

Really, I think that we all should take some time in the next week or so and have each and every one of us read the

entire thread

. In my experience, endgames are seriously won or lost because of people's willingness to go back and reassess their opinions over the course of the game. Even as I tell CES and Thesp to do more, I have a feeling that Thesp is going to go "well damn, back to my vote on CES from yesterday," and he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion. This concerns me. CES is really in the same boat, as yesterday he basically said "I think Glork is town, so I'm going to follow him around, okay?" I should have told him off then, but he seemed perfectly willing to go after my two top guys: Nightfall/BM and MBL.

So...

FoS: CES, Thesp

for their behavior throughout much of yesterday.

Minor FoS: MGM

for being hasty with his vote.

FoS: MBL

for seeming to play both sides of just about everybody yesterday. He projected mixed feelings on me and BM definitely, and I can't remember how his CES thoughts progressed, but I remember being somewhat displeased with that. MBL's behavior yesterday is something which I'm going to have to go back and re-examine.
I would like MBL to actually try to commit to something today. His vote seems to have been sitting around idly -- either nowhere, or on a player who probably wasn't going to be lynched. I remember using something similar to find him as scum when I followed Moses in Egypt after I died, and this does feel vaguely reminiscent.

Really, Patrick is the only player I consider even close to being town right now. The rest of you have all done something that has upset me.

Off the top of my head, my most likely pairings would be CES/MGM, MBL/CES, or MBL/Thesp. These will likely change as I re-read, though, so take this as a purely tentative thought process.

[Mgm]

I'm not seeing an MBL/Thesp connection. What is the main reason behind that idea?

[Patrick]

I can't particularly see anyone who is connected to Thesp at the moment.

[Glork]

I think that Thesp and MBL, for the most part, have failed to question or comment on each other... which, to me, seems a little bit odd. I could be mistaken, and that's why I don't want to say anything firmly until I re-read the game. However, that was one of my gut thoughts, so I put it down.

[MrBuddyLee]

Battle Mage, if you happen to read this, self-hammering is the worst thing town can possibly do short of claiming scum. Your choice was dreadful.

Unless you can make an unambiguous case for who's scum when you turn up town, you HAVE to use that extra time and votes to draw more connections between the people who remain. We had an opportunity to force people to take a stand and see who was willing to possibly hop off the BM wagon, and you cut it short. For example, no one truly knows whether I would have hammered you or not. "I hate L-1" is so incredibly illogical a reason for killing any town let alone yourself that I don't think I want you in any of my games in the future if you're going to play like that.

The rest of you... *throws hands in air* I swore at the monitor when I saw BM come up town. Not because he got lynched but because of the near-complete lack of info that lynch gave us because most of you wouldn't play ball. The only person I could see as clearly scummy overnight was Ether, based on the way she pushed Nightfall relentlessly for days, and now she's dead, leaving us with a bunch of mealy-mouthed half-commital nothing to work with.

If this game's going to end with another mislynch, I won't be the fall guy if I can help it. Mgm, you look a little eager there considering what the correct play is today, and I already see Glork laying some groundwork to come after me because I've been "uncertain". If any one of you thinks about voting me, I want to hear who you think my scumpartner is and why before you place the vote. I plan to attack with my case for who the scumpair is, along with attacking the scenarios of the people who slide onto my wagon.

vote: no lynch.

I don't think I'll be the nightkill choice of scum considering my current favorability rating, but I want to read the thread until I can come up with a complete end-to-end theory of who the scumpair is and why they took each action they did. Please don't finish off the nolynch until we've all given our recommendations for tomorrow. I

will

reiterate that Ether was an unexpected nightkill, and the only explanation I can think of is that scum's looked at the voting patterns and knows who they want left around.

AndrewS: 8 (Thesp ChannelDelibird spectrumvoid Mgm CES Fritzler IH Glork)

Thesp: 6 (ChannelDelibird Cogito Ergo Sum Adele Mgm Glork Zindaras)

ChannelDelibird: 6 (Thesp Fritzler MrBuddyLee Glork Patrick CES)

Battle Mage: 5 (CES Glork Thesp Patrick Battle Mage)

Mgm was the only player not on the scum lynch, was on only one of the two town lynches but has been pushing me wrongly for 2 1/2 days now.
CES was late to the scum lynch, on both of the town lynches, and has pushed my lynch wrongly for a day.
Thesp was on both town lynches, leans towards a wrong lynch of me, but was on scum for three days.
Glork was on both town lynches, pushed my lynch wrongly yesterday, and claims to have followed Fritz-cop onto CDB.
Patrick was on one of two town lynches, late to the CDB lynch, and failed to hammer Thesp.
MBL was on neither town lynch (though I was considering hammering BM), and followed Glork-cop onto the CDB wagon.

If you guys lynch me, the game will be over. Don't be dumb--get to talking.

[Glork]

Er. I don't claim to have followed Fritz-Cop.

Fritz followed me all day yesterday.

He asked me who the play was, then followed me onto Ether, then when I moved from Ether to CDB, he followed me there. The only reason I show up later in the end-of-day-VC is because I unvoted to allow some breathing space (I think for CDB's claim).

If anything, I would have been following Thesp's lead once I found out that Fritz had basically declared him not-Goon. But I had been slowly arriving at CDBscum over the course of my three huge analysis-posts, if you'd bother to go back and look.

[MrBuddyLee]

Then apparently both of us need to read the thread more carefully--it appears I was wrong.

FoS: MBL for seeming to play both sides of just about everybody yesterday. I would like MBL to actually try to commit to something today. His vote seems to have been sitting around idly -- either nowhere, or on a player who probably wasn't going to be lynched.

I was on CES, Zindy and you all day yesterday, and only at the end was I uncommitted because if I voted it'd have hammered BM prematurely and because I was assessing Mgm as possible scum. You should read my thoughts leading up to each lynch/modkill carefully because I have yet to be certain of anything in this game other than that you were a cop with a guilty on CDB. Remember, I'm the stereotypically cautious player and you're the reckless one.

[Glork]

Fair enough. I work all weekend, and on Monday/Tuesday (I think). I'll need a day off to devote to reading the thread, but I'm going to get some kind of re-read done as soon as possible, even if it means "skipping" the first 20-something pages by re-assessing my earlier analysis-posts.

[Thesp]

Really, I think that we all should take some time in the next week or so and have each and every one of us read the

entire thread

. In my experience, endgames are seriously won or lost because of people's willingness to go back and reassess their opinions over the course of the game. Even as I tell CES and Thesp to do more, I have a feeling that Thesp is going to go "well damn, back to my vote on CES from yesterday," and he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion. This concerns me.

I will try to re-read, but I'm not certain when I have the time. I remember replacing into Kingmaker, and the 80-page behemoth was daunting to get through.

I feel somewhat patronized by your assessment of me on CES. I am really flabbergasted that little serious attention has been paid to him, as he's led terrible, terrible wagons with little contribution (even when pressed), seems only defensive, never contributed justification for his vote yesterday (but was more than happy to help the lynch along), and has had all-around suspect play. Yet people seem to stick up for him/ignore him like there's no tomorrow. He is by far the best play for the day, as I sit right now. I will try to go back and re-look, but I think he warrants serious attention.

Mod: Please do not impose a deadline today, or for the rest of the game. We'll finish it, I promise, but I think we may need some time on this one.

Prods are welcome if we slack off, I know it may happen with me. Thanks!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

never contributed justification for his vote yesterday (but was more than happy to help the lynch along)

I pointed out several holes in his analysis, including an outright

falsehood

, all of which suggested he had decided to go after me as an evil scumbag. If that isn't justification, I don't know what is, scum.

Glrok, please tell me why following you is a bad play. Do you feel I should not trust my read on you or that I shouldn't trust your reads? Maybe it's not "proper" or whatever, but I'm trying to help win this game, maybe?

And how sure are you about Patrick, Glrok? Because if he's town, then MBL has to be Thesp's Goon.

I'm also going to take a moment and argue against a no-lynch at this point. We've already lost one useful contributor, CTD, and I don't think we need to lose another.

[Glork]

Actually, CES, I'm leaning slightly towards you/MGM at this moment.

And you saying that you're going to follow me is bad because in the event that I'm wrong in my gameplay (which I was), then there's too little to hold you accountable for... except for the fact that you decided to take a backseat to actively scumhunting.

The fact of the matter is, CES, that my confidence in my ability is at an all time low right now. After LO2 and this game and a couple of other recent/ongoing games, I'm just very frustrated with myself and with mafia in general. I keep second-guessing myself to an unreasonable degree and when I finally settle on *something*, it always seems to be the *WRONG* thing.

Just because you're not trying to pin BM's mislynch on me does not mean that you're not likely to be scum. Your backseat attitude has been noted, and we both know that you're a perfectly capable scumhunter. Call me patronizing, but a very strong part of me feels that you would know better than to sit around and just follow someone else's lead in a situation like yesterday, no matter who that person was.

[Glork]

Also, what reasons do you have against a possible MBL/MGM pairing at this point in time?

[Glork]

Also, I agree with Thesp's request for the mod. This may be a grueling and tedious day, but I think that we are all active and well aware of the situation. And I don't know about the rest of you, but I sure as hell won't let *ANYBODY* sit around and let this game stall to the point where activity drops to deadline-necessary levels.

[Mgm]

If we're considering no lynch we should do it right now and not give the scum any more ideas about who the optimal target is. Otherwise, they're going to kill off the least suspected person of the group and then we'd be no better off than we are today.

Does anyone else feel like no lynching to optimize our chances?
I think it could be a sensible thing right now, but if I feel there's too much info out there, I won't support the idea anymore.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Actually, CES, I'm leaning slightly towards you/MGM at this moment.

Assume for the purposes of that question that the scum group is Thesp + Patrick/MBL. You're helping me find the final goon.

Just because you're not trying to pin BM's mislynch on me does not mean that you're not likely to be scum.

Of course I'm not. I've already established that you're town.

Your backseat attitude has been noted, and we both know that you're a perfectly capable scumhunter. Call me patronizing, but a very strong part of me feels that you would know better than to sit around and just follow someone else's lead in a situation like yesterday, no matter who that person was.

Let's get one thing out of the way first: I was personally suspicious of BM/Nightfall. I do not deny any responsibility for that mislynch at all. Secondly, I have caught you scum even if noone's currently willing to go along with me. Thirdly, I've yet to have a correct read on MBL in any game and I always disagree with the majority of what he says and Patrick nearly always looks town. I am trying to help win the game and that means I'm going to use every information at my disposal, including your opinion on these two gentlemen.

Also, what reasons do you have against a possible MBL/MGM pairing at this point in time?

Mgm is town.