Mafia 137 - Neruzian Era Mafia SERIAL KILLER WIN!


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Post Post #1600 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:52 am

Post by GreyICE »

In post 1599, chkflip wrote:
Claim: Hider


N1 - Muffin
N2 - warriormode
N3 - Didn't use it, I think I forgot. Don't recall. I think this was the speedlynch day that caught me off guard?
N4 - CSL
N5 - GreyICE

IIRC a hider dies if they hide behind scum, right? So that should mean that CSL and GI are conftown.

Please identify where you breadcrumbed your hide targets.

Also, check your role PM, and then tell us whether you die if you hide behind scum.
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Post Post #1601 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:59 am

Post by chkflip »

lol sorry to say but I don't breadcrumb, I've never been able to do that without being painfully obvious.

Double checked; it's under the [Night] section. I die if I hide behind scum.
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Post Post #1602 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:05 am

Post by GreyICE »

Starting Analysis.

18.
Toon Fighter (Mafia Goon): lynched D1

-
21.
Phoebus
lewarcher82 (Mafia Goon) died N1

4.
hiplop (Townie): died N1

=============
10.
Maxous (Townie) lynched D2

-
1.
Empking (Town Watcher) died N2

17.
Hiraki (Townie) died N2

19.
SomeRandomGuy
NanookTheWolf (Townie) died N2

=============
11.
malpascp (Town Tracker) lynched D3

-
15.
warriormode (Townie) died N3

20.
zMuffinMan (Town Vigilante) died N3

=============
13.
Pine
David Xanatos (Townie) lynched D4

-
9.
Torqez
Hezlucky (Town Bodyguard) died N4

14.
pappums rat
Amrun (Mafia Jailkeeper) died N4

=============
6.
vezokpiraka (Mafia Goon) lynched D5

-
16.
Tomie Uzumaki sorgster (Townie) died N5



PEdit: Chkflip gets himself lynched, news at 11.

Anyway, once we lynch obvscum we need to focus on getting things straight.
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Post Post #1603 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:17 am

Post by GreyICE »

Role analysis:

Investigative:

Town Tracker
Town Watcher

Killing:

Town Vigilante

Protective:

Town Bodyguard

Obvious facts:

There is an even night killer. The following kills are unaccounted for:

1 of EmpKing/Hiraki

Amrun


These occurred on night 2 and night 4. Therefore, as painfully stupid as it is, due to the mass claim not uncovering any explanation, Neruz has included an even night serial killer (most likely alternating night SK/commuter). Or the scum team has an even night vigilante.

Both of these are total bullshit, but what can you do?

Anyway, here's the following assumptions:

1) scumteam is fairly low power, although large. With an even night serial killer AND a vigilante, jailkeeping someone is kinda a crapshoot. You might lock down a power role, but what if the SK was going to shoot it anyway? Huh?
2) Town has like... no power. A watcher and a tracker? A vig? A bodyguard? Cool story bro, but I could see a tracker, vig and bodyguard in a 13 player mini. Vote stealer is not the god of power roles (or even very good). This makes me want to trust the hider claim but it's so scummy it's radioactive (more on that later).
3) What the FUCK is up with the even night kills?

Hmmm.
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Post Post #1604 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:32 am

Post by GreyICE »

Okay, basic mafia theory.

A hider is a role used early game to confirm town and late game to confirm scum. In both cases it's utterly worthless if the person using it doesn't breadcrumb it. It's hella easy to do too. ChkFlip is not a moron, and not a new player. All he has to do is say 'I think CSL is town' in his last post of the day, and if he dies, well, look. CSL is scum. This is basic, easy, and hella easy to do.

And yet... we find no evidence of this. The worst sin came last night. Think about it. I'm confirmed fucking town.
If I die, he dies.
AND THERE IS AN OBVIOUS EXTRA KILL MEANING TWO ANTI-TOWN KILLS.

Odds are better than 50% I died last night. And yet he hid behind me. An action that kills him if I die.

Nevermind mafia theory. That's just bad play. Bad, bad play.

I mean it's truly inexplicable. He never mentions WarriorMode as confirmed town D2. He does mention Muffin is 'very town' at one point.

He claims not to have been around N3. That lasted from 9/13 (3:49 AM) to 9/16 (5 AM).

During this time, he made the following posts:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p3427794
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3427927
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p3428880
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p3431096
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p3431108
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3432427
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p3432691
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p3432860
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p3433932
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3433937
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p3433939
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p3433950
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p3434154
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p3434243
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p3434320
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p3434365

If he's town, WarriorMode was vigged as a confirmed innocent thanks to his actions.

Fuck he NEVER mentions his confirmed innocents ever.

My rage pit is bubbling over right now. At either how FUCKING SHODDY this piece of shit fakeclaim was, or, if he's town, the desire to chop off his cock and shove it so far down his throat he pisses out his ass.
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Post Post #1605 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:39 am

Post by GreyICE »

Oh I'm not even bothering.

Vote: ChkFlip


If you're town I don't want you alive.

Now, lets go on to the rest. I'm looking for scum and SK.
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Post Post #1606 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:49 am

Post by GreyICE »

Mastin has been twigging my scumdar for days. There is something desperately, desperately off about him. His need to play games, his horrid waffling, the way he moves back and forth, like a tree. He needs to die, and he needs to die but bad.

CSL is town if chkflip is town (also my fucking god that's not the case). I don't really see him as the SK in any case.

Hmm, lets look at the SK kills. We have Amrun, and Emp or Hiraki (SRG is such an obvious vig shot I don't even know what).

I've... I literally have nothing. My only thought is these are Mastin kills, since they're so fucking awful only Mastin would do this as non-town.

Why shoot Amrun if you have a town read on her? It's stupid. She was doing nothing.

Why shoot Amrun if you have a scum read on her? Push her lynch day 5, commute or do whatever it is you do on odd nights, and enjoy.

There's... it has to be mastin. Anyone else would not WIFOM themselves so badly, and just shoot townie players. It's mastin who is going to figure 'oh scum is getting too strong, lets shoot Amrun.'
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Post Post #1607 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:43 am

Post by chkflip »

"He never mentions his confirmed innocents."

Why would I do that in any situation except for right now? That makes absolutely no sense to me.

And saying I'm "better than this" is an egregious exaggeration. I appreciate it, but really I'm not that great at this game.

Furthermore, if you think Mastin is the SK, why are you voting someone you think is town? How does what you're doing make any more sense than me not breadcrumbing to your desire?

Saying "I think [HideTarget] is town" every fucking day before hammer? Are you serious? Do you realize how obvious that would become? And do you realize that, if scum (either mafia or the SK) had picked up on that, we'd be closer to LYLO right now?

Come on, dude. I understand my play has been anti-town. It always is. I don't know why. But I've played to the best of my abilities and have gone out of my way to try to 'innocent hunt' as it were. Sorry that wasn't enough for you.

But to lynch me over one of the lying VT's just because I've been anti-town? Seriously?
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Post Post #1608 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:28 am

Post by mastin2 »

Yup. Chk, you just claimed SK. Not mafia--your play doesn't fit with being mafia; it doesn't add up, interactions (from memory) don't seem right, and I kinda find it hard to believe mafia would create a claim that desperate to avoid being killed by the SK.

As an SK, however, it makes perfect sense to me. As such, I'm not switching my vote--we're trying to lynch the last mafia today. Which is zdenek.

Spoiler: Response To GreyICE
GreyICE wrote:I've... I literally have nothing. My only thought is these are Mastin kills, since they're so fucking awful only Mastin would do this as non-town.
I'll have to do an ISO of myself to see what I've said on all the kills. This is all I could find in my Quicktopic.
Empking (Town Watcher) has died! <--Obv-vig. No scum player'd shoot Empking.
Hiraki (Townie) has died! <--Town enough, so has a fair chance of being the scum kill. It is, however, possibly a safe-SK kill.
NanookTheWolf (Townie) has died! <--Looks like a mercy-SK kill.
N1 wrote:hiplop (Townie) has died!
lewarcher82 (Mafia Goon) has died!
I personally wouldn't kill hiplop as scum--he was confirmed town to me, but as shown by the Maxous and Mal mislynches, confirmed town to ME is not confirmed town to the TOWN. :P I obviously wouldn't have been able to shoot lew if I were the last scum, and as an SK, at this point in the game, I'd have no way of knowing there was a vig in the game, and therefore would shoot like one: AKA, I'd target one of my scum suspects N1. I believe the list was {Tomie, Edmund, GreyICE, ?, ?} (I don't remember who the other two were off the top of my head).

So, can't be the SK due to this, though I suppose you could go for the theoretical I-was-scum-who-shot-someone-that-was-confirmed-town-to-ME.

Empking (Town Watcher) has died!
Hiraki (Townie) has died!
NanookTheWolf (Townie) has died!
Even on day two, there was no way for me-as-scum or me-as-SK to know there were three NK's. I did speculate Day Two that scum kill was blocked, hiplop was an SK kill, and lew the vig kill, but this was the first actual proof of there being three killers. Hiraki was a town-read of mine; I would not have shot him as scum (he was primed as a GI-lead mislynch, if memory serves), nor would I have shot a townread as an SK. Meaning for me to be scum/SK, I'd have to shoot Empking (SK--no way would I shoot the guy I was intending to [mis]lynch the next day as scum!) or Nanook. Nanook would be a Mercy Kill regardless of SK or Scum, and would be a safe kill for either.

tl;dr, if I had a shooting power, I could only be scum if it were Nanook, though if I were the SK, it could be Nanook or Empking.

warriormode (Townie) has died!
zMuffinMan (Town Vigilante) has died!
Muffin's obviously a scum kill. I suppose this does fit with me-as-scum shooting Muffin, since Muffin was near the top of my town-reads. Warrior's either the SK or Vig kill. By now, the SK could kill whoever they want to, but they probably were aware by now that they couldn't get away with a vig claim, making this far more likely to be a vig shot than an SK-shot. Though Mastin-as-SK might have done it, anyway, since warrior was in my neutral list, perfect place to shoot.

hezlucky (Town Bodyguard) has died!
Amrun (Mafia Jailkeeper) has died!
I read this to mean that Hez died protecting someone and that he took Amrun down with him, not even thinking about the SK at the time. But it's probably more likely that Hez protected someone successfully, keeping them from death, and that this person was the scum NK. If Hez was simply shot instead of protecting someone as I assumed, well, then once more, it theoretically fits with me, since Hez was my strongest living townread at the time. Amrun obviously would be the SK-NK. Again, it does fit with mastin-as-SK shooting a neutral-leaning-scum-read, since the SK wanted scum dead just as much as town by that point.

sorgster (Townie) has died!
I can't see how sorgster could be a mastin-as-SK-kill. I can't rationalize it in any way. I'd still be aiming for scum, yet sorgster was one of only two people I knew wasn't. (The other being GreyICE.) If it were a Mastin-kill, it'd have to be Mastin-As-Scum, since I said it myself: Scum should be shooting for the SK, and the ONLY person cleared of being the SK was GreyICE, so even sorgster would be a suspect. Though that does beg the question as to why I wouldn't shoot CSL or chk (especially the latter), since they've both had far more questionable behavior than sorgster (especially the latter). I-as-scum obviously couldn't shoot either zdenek or edmund, since I-as-scum would be framing them as the last scum, preferably entering 3P lylo with one-or-both of them.
Is that a fair analysis of myself? (I think I did that as objectively as I could.) I think it paints a pretty clear I-Am-Not-SK picture. And in my mind, it's possible-but-a-stretch to see I-Am-Last-Scum by the NKs. 'Course, when you throw in the analysis of the scum ISOs (working on it, okay?), it becomes pretty clear I'm not.

As for this...
GreyICE wrote:his horrid waffling, the way he moves back and forth, like a tree.
I know you've complained about me being the opposite--stubbornly holding on. Was that earlier in this game, or way back in TWBBS? Would you prefer I go back to grounded-solidly? :P (I find it's actually more fun this way, and more pro-town overall.)

CSL is town if chkflip is town (also my fucking god that's not the case). I don't really see him as the SK in any case.
Yeah, pretty sure CSL's town. He doesn't look like an SK, and his overall play doesn't really look like scum.

Why shoot Amrun if you have a scum read on her? Push her lynch day 5, commute or do whatever it is you do on odd nights, and enjoy.

There's... it has to be mastin. Anyone else would not WIFOM themselves so badly, and just shoot townie players. It's mastin who is going to figure 'oh scum is getting too strong, lets shoot Amrun.'
Actually, I think any player as an SK would shoot Amrun, for that very reason--scum were too strong. Still had three alive, approaching lylo danger levels. SKs can sometimes be endgamed by scum, so they want to get down to no more than one scum alive. If two town players had died that night, it'd have been 3/8 scum alive and 4/8 town alive--meaning, we'd have to lynch scum that day or the SK'd get endgamed. The SK had to shoot someone they thought was scum, no matter who. 'Course, you're right; it does fit as me. I've pretty clearly demonstrated above how I'd think as the SK. But as mentioned, it doesn't fit.
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Post Post #1609 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:38 am

Post by chkflip »

How the fuck did I just claim SK?

This is seriously how bad at mafia I am. I have no idea what you guys are talking about.

I hid behind GreyICE because, although he was the only other power role, it seemed a safe place as his vote-stealing hasn't once (under the guise that vezok is telling the truth) stolen scum's vote. So I ran under the assumption that scum would keep him around to steal another townie's vote. How is that logic so terrible that I've all of a sudden "claimed SK"?
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Post Post #1610 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:39 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 1590, chkflip wrote:Okay, well lets play with the fact that it's a gambit. Both sides lost their protectors.

Why was there only one NK last night instead of two?

I'd claim but it's not my turn.
^Why would a weak cop want to claim first? They could potentially trap scum with a counter-claim.
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Post Post #1611 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:40 am

Post by chkflip »

So I could claim my targets and clear them.

How could I catch scum with a counter-claim? Who fucking claims hider as scum?
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Post Post #1612 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:41 am

Post by mastin2 »

Not to mention, desperate flailing, trying to get GreyICE onto me, overall scummy play, overdefensiveness...


Ah, screw that. No way is chk town; he's scum of SOME sort.
Unvote, VOTE: chkflip.
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Post Post #1613 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:42 am

Post by GreyICE »

EmpKing was obvtown, as usual when he's town.

If the vig shot him, I will be pissed as fuck.
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Post Post #1614 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:43 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 1611, chkflip wrote:So I could claim my targets and clear them.

How could I catch scum with a counter-claim? Who fucking claims hider as scum?
The fact that you're saying this proves that you're not a hider, since hiders instinctively know exactly what's wrong with this picture. Heck, anyone who's seen a hider, or heck, anyone who's played as a cop, knows exactly what the issue here is.

And anyone who's faked a cop claim of some sort knows exactly why this is one.
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Post Post #1615 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:43 am

Post by chkflip »

What the fuck ever. I'm tired of this retardation.

VOTE: CHKFLIP
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Post Post #1616 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:45 am

Post by chkflip »

For the record, I've never gotten a cop or hider role PM before this one.
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Post Post #1617 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:46 am

Post by GreyICE »

In post 1611, chkflip wrote:So I could claim my targets and clear them.

How could I catch scum with a counter-claim? Who fucking claims hider as scum?

:neutral:

It's a fucking awesome fakeclaim as scum.

You're like a cop except you have a great excuse for investigating obvtown and the SK doesn't shoot you.

Also, why WOULDN'T you breadcrumb your innocents as loudly as possible? The scumteam seeing them and figuring you're a cop and shooting you is AWESOME as a Hider.

In point of fact the only good point in favor of you being town is that Hider is such a decent fakeclaim for scum in your situation that the fact you've played like SHIT so far suggests you'd do a SHIT fakeclaim.

Of course then I look at your play and I realize it is a SHIT fakeclaim.
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Post Post #1618 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:47 am

Post by GreyICE »

Also why not use 5 seconds of brainpower.

Step 1: I breadcrumb my innocents loudly
Step 2: Vig doesn't shoot them
Step 3: Scum think I'm cop shoot me/roleblock me

Shots and roleblock both miss, vigs don't shoot town, profit.
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Post Post #1619 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:48 am

Post by chkflip »

Obviously I've never been in this situation before, but okay.

I'm totally shit.

Someone fucking hammer me so I can stop reading this shit. Please.
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Post Post #1620 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:50 am

Post by GreyICE »

He wants to be lynched.

Someone oblige the man.
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Post Post #1621 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:51 am

Post by chkflip »

You're goddamn right I don't want to hear you guys fucking slam me for playing like shit.

YOU'RE HORRI-BAD PLAY MAKES YOU SCUM.

That's the whole fucking case. Seriously? This late in the game and your case is about my piss poor logic?

Fuck that.

UNVOTE: CHKFLIP

Work for it.
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Post Post #1622 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:53 am

Post by GreyICE »

Yes, chkflip.

I am saying that playing NOTHING like a Hider, NOTHING like a player with confirmed innocents, NOTHING like a player who cannot be killed by scum when he's shot makes your claim fake.

Would I believe a mason claim from someone who tried to start a wagon on his claimed mason buddy? No. For the EXACT SAME FUCKING REASON.
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Joined: November 5, 2010

Post Post #1623 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:55 am

Post by chkflip »

Obviously you've never played a game with me where I mad terrible decisions as a PR.

This is exactly the reason I prefer Vanilla Town roles. All the time.
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.
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Stand Up Guy
Posts: 8778
Joined: November 5, 2010

Post Post #1624 (ISO) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:56 am

Post by chkflip »

For future reference, oh God of Hiders, please tell me what I
should've
done so I know how to properly play the role.

Or just stop your bitching because it isn't getting us anywhere.
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.

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