Mini Normal 1775 END!

[Dierfire]

I'm still here, I'm just waiting for Alone to answer.

After that, my last task before voting will be to review texcat.

[heuristically_alone]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

[Garmr]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

[Riabi]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

[mhsmith0]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

+1 on this. Garmr, if you want to send meta that supports this with any kind of consistency, feel free. Otherwise I'm not buying it either.

[heuristically_alone]

That was a short review.

I have some ideas.

@Alone

You said that you are going back and forth on Garmr, and also that you think that the statistical discussion between mhsmith0 and me was helpful to Town. I assume, then, that you rate Lowell as more likely to be Mafia than the ~50% figure that mhsmith0 gave (or that you agree with Garmr that other factors decrease that probability).
Could you explain how confident you are in the Lowell read, and why?

I feel most confident at this point for Lowell being mafia. It's some gut feeling based on what's been going on, but also I found the beginning of the game a little interesting. He didn't help with the lynching on the first 2 days, and one of those was a mafia. There was only one other if I remember correctly who didn't participate against the mafia. From a mafia stand point, I feel it is smart to want to distance yourself at the beginning and not take part of any lynching in case it goes a little sour.

[Lowell]

I'm on my phone, can't do this until Wed. In the meantime, go ahead and ignore heur. I'll tangle when I'm not fatfingering keypad. Heur, you get a two day headstart... Make it count, chief.

[texcat]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

[Lowell]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

I mean if it were me I'd be trying hard to choose between the two to make sure I get it right, then worry about that question AFTERWARDS if it comes to that. Weird question, bro.

[Riabi]

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

Yes it is, and I'm still comfortable with it there.
As for Garmr and Lowell, sure, they could both be scum. I can't think of any direct evidence for it off the top of my head, but, I also don't see any reason to exclude the possibility.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

I mean if it were me I'd be trying hard to choose between the two to make sure I get it right, then worry about that question AFTERWARDS if it comes to that. Weird question, bro.

Weird comment, bro. First off, the question was directed at me, why jump in to answer it so quickly? Secondly, we're in Day 4, with one scum dead, if we don't start looking at possible connections NOW, when should we? I'm not saying we have to 100% have it all worked out before we should vote or anything, but, there's certainly a lot of benefit in trying to figure out who might be bussing who, or who might be helping one another.

[Dierfire]

All right, I've been pretty deficient in content here lately. This is changing soon! Within 24 hours I plan to review texcat, after which time I will be ready to go ahead with a vote. I am close to committing by POE to the idea that Garmr and Lowell cannot both be Town (although not necessarily to the idea that they cannot both be Mafia).

[Garmr]

All right, I've been pretty deficient in content here lately. This is changing soon! Within 24 hours I plan to review texcat, after which time I will be ready to go ahead with a vote. I am close to committing by POE to the idea that Garmr and Lowell cannot both be Town (although not necessarily to the idea that they cannot both be Mafia).

Want to place your vote on lowell then?

[heuristically_alone]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

I mean if it were me I'd be trying hard to choose between the two to make sure I get it right, then worry about that question AFTERWARDS if it comes to that. Weird question, bro.

Why in the world would we want to wait to ask questions? Questions and response and information is the number one ingredient for town winning the game.

[ToastyToast]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

Sort of confused. How is this percentage in comparison to other players?

If someone wants to make a solid case for Garmr as town I'll listen, but all of this is good enough for me. I'll dig into Exp vs Garmr more later on, but between this stuff and the mechanical 50-50 odds of Garmr being the N1 shooter, I think this is the right lynch for today.

Ok so we know ChilledTea already had a scum read on Garmr. But this isn't really an analysis of boon/Garmr interactions?

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

yeah, this is bad.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

This wasn't directed to me but obviously its possible. I didn't see if you had any posts on the Garmr-Lowell connection, did you see anything suspicous?

I actually do think it is probably a good time to see how people are tied together. I think it would be incredibly odd for an mhs-garmr scum team to exist at this point. No reason for them to go after one another at this point if they were.

I feel most confident at this point for Lowell being mafia. It's some gut feeling based on what's been going on, but also I found the beginning of the game a little interesting. He didn't help with the lynching on the first 2 days, and one of those was a mafia. There was only one other if I remember correctly who didn't participate against the mafia. From a mafia stand point, I feel it is smart to want to distance yourself at the beginning and not take part of any lynching in case it goes a little sour.

That's nice but mhs not voted on every vote. Funny enough, Maestro (the one you replaced) also did not vote on the boons lynch.

Also, scum can easily jump on a wagon with momentum on a scumbuddy if they think it'll help get them towncred. I'd find that more likely then staying off in most situations actually.

[Lowell]

All right, I've been pretty deficient in content here lately. This is changing soon! Within 24 hours I plan to review texcat, after which time I will be ready to go ahead with a vote. I am close to committing by POE to the idea that Garmr and Lowell cannot both be Town (although not necessarily to the idea that they cannot both be Mafia).

Want to place your vote on lowell then?

Or garmr, perhaps?

[texcat]

Or Lowell, perhaps!

[Dierfire]

I reviewed texcat and again found a number of favorable associative points with Boonskiies (hammer intent in 988 is legitimate because if she were waiting for Boonskiies to claim to withdraw then she would not doubt the claim in 1018 or place the vote on the wagon as it was losing momentum in 1081). I'm content to leave her in the Town pile.

So, what's going on here? If Lowell is Mafia, is his partner also voting for Garmr (mhsmith0)? That seems an unlikely tactic, because if Garmr flips Town then Lowell would continue to be in danger. Is his partner avoiding the major wagons (Riabi, ToastyToast)? Those also seem like unlikely partners for Boonskiies and Lowell (Sakura was very aggressive with Boonskiies, ToastyToast was chosen by Boonskiies as the target of his false N1 action and doubted his claim). Is his partner on his wagon (texcat is an unlikely partner, Garmr is an irrelevant partner, Alone alone gives me pause)?
If Garmr is Mafia then things are much simpler. His partner would be Lowell (not worrisome) or Alone (seems more likely to be partners with Garmr than with Lowell due to the comment about the statistical discussion being helpful to Town but voting for Lowell).
There's also the question of the probability calculation; unless someone can make a powerfully compelling case for Garmr as Town (or for Lowell as Mafia), I think that Garmr is a superior choice for the lynch.

I think that this is good enough to proceed.
In summary: texcat, Riabi, mhsmith0, and ToastyToast have favorable associations with Boonskiies, and to various degrees seem unlikely partners for Lowell as well. Alone seems more likely to be partners with Garmr than with Lowell. If Lowell and Garmr are both Mafia then we're probably set anyway.

VOTE: Garmr

[Garmr]

So no one actually has a case to lynch me OK.

[Garmr]

Instead of a case on why iam town how about a real case about why I am scum not this bs about percentages

[heuristically_alone]

@dierfire

Really at this point I don't care whether we vote Garmr or Lowell. At the time of that statistical analysis, I believe my vote was on Garmr, but then I switched to Lowell because he started to seem more scummy and more people seemed in favor of voting him off. Either way, I plan on voting them off today and tomorrow.

[FA_Q2]

VoteCount 4.3

With 8 players alive, it takes

5

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (3):

texcat, heuristically_alone, Garmr

(L-2)

mhsmith0 (1):

Riabi

texcat (0):

Garmr (3):

Lowell, mhsmith0, Dierfire

(L-2)

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-03 17:00:00)

NOTES:
Prodding mhsmith0

[mhsmith0]

@dierfire

Really at this point I don't care whether we vote Garmr or Lowell. At the time of that statistical analysis, I believe my vote was on Garmr, but then I switched to Lowell because he started to seem more scummy and more people seemed in favor of voting him off. Either way, I plan on voting them off today and tomorrow.

I'd say I lean harder on garmr being wolf than Lowell, so would prefer lynching in that order.

[mhsmith0]

So no one actually has a case to lynch me OK.

That's pretty reductionist. Argue against the points made, or argue why Lowell or someone else is a better lynch.

[Garmr]

So no one actually has a case to lynch me OK.

That's pretty reductionist. Argue against the points made, or argue why Lowell or someone else is a better lynch.

I bloody already argued against you fucking idiot back when they were made.

Can you actually list points instead of quoting redundant posts

[Garmr]

Like seriously the only post quoted were an omgus reaction from chilled.