Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[inHimshallibe]

But see, that's what you say

now

. Throwing the numbers out now don't wipe away the footprints left behind.

[AutumnEvenings]

However, I find it highly likely (say, 80%) that the SK will target Guardian (again, unless Guardian is the SK -- a probability which I find to be insignificant). I'd give about a 50% chance of scum targeting Guardian. There is only a 50% chance that there is even another Doctor alive, and probably only a 60% chance that any living Doctor would protect Guardian.

Hey Glork? Stop telling the Serial Killer what to do, ok?

FoS: Glork

for essentially saying "Hey SK, you kill the doc and the mafia'll kill someone else, ok?"

[Glork]

...er, wtf, my math scuks. .5 x .3 = 0.15, so GuardianSK survives only 65% of the time.

[inHimshallibe]

However, I find it highly likely (say, 80%) that the SK will target Guardian (again, unless Guardian is the SK -- a probability which I find to be insignificant). I'd give about a 50% chance of scum targeting Guardian. There is only a 50% chance that there is even another Doctor alive, and probably only a 60% chance that any living Doctor would protect Guardian.

Hey Glork? Stop telling the Serial Killer what to do, ok?

FoS: Glork

for essentially saying "Hey SK, you kill the doc and the mafia'll kill someone else, ok?"

I think you just hit the nail on the head. Don't just FoS... vote, please.

[Guardian]

inHim: I am

not

a member of the mafia. I am a doctor.

Conceiving arguments on Glork with the pretext that I am a member of the mafia is extremely misguided. He may be defending me for bad reasons, he may be scum independent of defending me, but I repeat, basing Glork_is_scum arguments off of me_is_scum makes no sense.

I want to re-read this thread again. As in, I don't want to re-read this thread again, but I think if I'm to come anywhere near finding scum I should.

[Glork]

However, I find it highly likely (say, 80%) that the SK will target Guardian (again, unless Guardian is the SK -- a probability which I find to be insignificant). I'd give about a 50% chance of scum targeting Guardian. There is only a 50% chance that there is even another Doctor alive, and probably only a 60% chance that any living Doctor would protect Guardian.

Hey Glork? Stop telling the Serial Killer what to do, ok?

FoS: Glork

for essentially saying "Hey SK, you kill the doc and the mafia'll kill someone else, ok?"

I'm not *telling* the SK what to do. I am predicting what they will likely do. Like I said, regardless of what Guardian is, the SK would have a vested interest in seeing Guardian die.

[Glork]

But see, that's what you say

now

. Throwing the numbers out now don't wipe away the footprints left behind.

No.. that's the point I tried to make from the beginning. You've just twisted it into something else. Did you forget the part where I said "I find it likely that the SK will be cutting Guardian to pieces"?

That statement indicates that

I think there is a greater-than-50% chance that Guardian will die within the next night or two

.

So to say that I'm only arguing "Guardian likely dies" after laying out the numbers is a flat-out lie.

[AutumnEvenings]

I'm not *telling* the SK what to do. I am predicting what they will likely do. Like I said, regardless of what Guardian is, the SK would have a vested interest in seeing Guardian die.

You're "predicting" a plan out loud on the thread which is bad for the town. I personally would rather

not

facilitate their decision-making. I'd rather they cross-killed the same person all the time. "Predicting" who will kill who (and who will look for a target elsewhere) allows for open communication between mafia and SK.

It's bad play. I haven't given much creadence to the attacks on you (and I don't, for the record, buy a Glork/Guardian link (I thought I had a Guardian/Albert link )) but I'll go back (*sigh*) and look over them more closely. And I do remember that MoS talked about you loads and loads in a weird way. I love you and all, but you could be scum.

Still keeping my vote on XYZ though. He's posting elsewhere on the site and I want his attention here.

[Battle Mage]

i don't think you should be directing the SK towards the Doc. it seems every time the town try to manipulate the scum minorities, it fails.
I still think Guardian is scum. His breadcrumbing proves very little, as a Doc claim is probably the safest claim for scum anyway. I also think Shteven is likely to be town, just from his recent comments.

Hm. The Guardian/Glork folks are going to love this... but I am inclined to believe the claim.

Unvote Guardian

It's hard to say whether the scums will play the WIFOM game or not as far as nightkilling Guardian goes. But consider this: If Guardian is not the SK, then the SK will have significant incentive to kill Guardian regardless of whether Guardian is scum or the Doctor. If Guardian is the SK (which I must say, I find rather unlikely -- I think he'd have taken a lower profile in this game if so), then the Mafia may in fact leave him around for a while. If he's the Doc, he could find himself the target of both kills so that Doc protection won't save him; or, if only one group targets him, the presence of a second Doc could save him.



Basically... I don't think Guardian is the play. I find it very likely that in the next night or two, the SK will be cutting Guardian to pieces. And as long as we've got the SK playing vigilante for us, it's strategic to look eslewhere for our lynch.

Vote: Shteven

primarily as a placeholder.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah...AE has a point, Glork. I kind of understand what you were trying to say, but you could have just said "let's not lynch guardian; if he's telling the truth, he'll probably be dead soon, and if he's not dead soon we'll look again later" and left it at that. The way you said it, it really does sound like it could be a subtle attempt to direct the SK to kill guardian so your scumgroup can go kill someone else. Reminds me a lot of myself when I was scum trying to do that in Hopsital Mafia, in fact.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Boy is this wagon lonely.

[Battle Mage]

dw, im here for you TCS. :p

[HackerHuck]

However, I find it highly likely (say, 80%) that the SK will target Guardian (again, unless Guardian is the SK -- a probability which I find to be insignificant). I'd give about a 50% chance of scum targeting Guardian. There is only a 50% chance that there is even another Doctor alive, and probably only a 60% chance that any living Doctor would protect Guardian.

Hey Glork? Stop telling the Serial Killer what to do, ok?

FoS: Glork

for essentially saying "Hey SK, you kill the doc and the mafia'll kill someone else, ok?"

Interesting, I thought that Glork was saying "Hey SK, how about we both kill the doc so that he's guaranteed to die."

Actually, I don't think Glork would make a slip like that, but it certainly doesn't give me a townie feel.

Vote: xyz

I like Autumn's reasonings and it would be nice to place a little pressure on him.

Guardian, I'm looking for a decent reason why you now think YB is town again.

[BillyTwilight]

If he's the Doc, he could find himself the target of both kills so that Doc protection won't save him; or, if only one group targets him, the presence of a second Doc could save him.

Whoa, I need a point of clarification here. I thought a Doc protection typically granted NK immunity regardless of how many times that player was targeted by a killing group in a night phase. Maybe it's just my relative newbiness, never seen this definition of a doc protection before.

I'm willing to give Guardian a pass for the day on that claim. I agree with Glork that if he's a doc he's probably doomed at some point in the next few night phases anyway, so why waste a lynch? If he manages to survive till we get close to endgame we can deal with him then.

FoS: inHim

for wanting to kill a claimed doc with no further discussion and his crusade against Glork. First Glork's protecting Guardian-his-scumbuddy then he's angling to get Guardian-not-his-scumbuddy lynched? Your reaching to force a Glork lynch.

[HackerHuck]

Now I see why Guardian protected Billy.

[Guardian]

If he's the Doc, he could find himself the target of both kills so that Doc protection won't save him; or, if only one group targets him, the presence of a second Doc could save him.

Whoa, I need a point of clarification here. I thought a Doc protection typically granted NK immunity regardless of how many times that player was targeted by a killing group in a night phase. Maybe it's just my relative newbiness, never seen this definition of a doc protection before.

The doc role PM, shown in post 0, says it works this way.

[Guardian]

Guardian, I'm looking for a decent reason why you now think YB is town again.

I have reconsidered, and am not quite sure he is town. He could be an SK:

YB for possible SK?? the MoS kill makes a lot of sense then, and the SV kill makes more sense.

However, I think he is non-mafia, due to interactions with MoS:

Yeah, MoS had me fooled by protecting me. All that crap about "easy day one lynch that happens but is bad". I was like, yay, someone sees that I am town. It makes me think YB and Albert are both town though, since MoS was perfectly willing to put focus on both of them.

I think MoS trying to get the wagon to deadline lynch YB on day one is pretty indicative of YB being non-scum. It did not feel like busing.

Also:

I don't think Yogurt has the panache to post this as scum:

I actually belive MoS is the only one on the bandwagon that is Pro-town for the most part, since his case one me contains more info from himself and less info from Billy's Pbpa, but maybe that just what he wants.

MBL pointed this out, and I agree -- I don't see YB posting this as MoS's scum buddy.


Re-read coming up... sometime. Maybe tonight.

[BillyTwilight]

If he's the Doc, he could find himself the target of both kills so that Doc protection won't save him; or, if only one group targets him, the presence of a second Doc could save him.

Whoa, I need a point of clarification here. I thought a Doc protection typically granted NK immunity regardless of how many times that player was targeted by a killing group in a night phase. Maybe it's just my relative newbiness, never seen this definition of a doc protection before.

The doc role PM, shown in post 0, says it works this way.

Oops. *embarrassed*

[Guardian]

More than 2/3 done with the re-read. I have a few opinions/suspicions. I want to hear more from some people first, and I'm not going to single them out as such.

XYZ's role indeed needs to contribute, it has lurked all game.

[Jack]

I find it rather absurd that you're taking one player's opinion and using it as law to meta me. For the record, the player who said that about me was Zindaras.


Jack, let me ask you this: Do you honestly believe that any single player can "reek of pro-town"

every time

that they are pro-town, and that they

never

"reek of pro-town" when they are scum?

I'm just pushing you.

I'm thinking I should revert to guardian. The case against him is stronger, and if guardian is scum, then it's a black mark which we can use to get Glork next. He was my favorite target for the majority of day one, which I mentioned several times. I wish I had been more determined to see him lynched. Hindsight is 20/20, they say.

The case for Guardian:

He was consistently trying to hop wagons to find one that stuck. Starting on page 9 he placed the third vote on BM. Trying to build a wagon that started to get traction? He also did some considerable jumping afterwards. In total, he's voted for Glork, MBL, BM, N9V, BM, Shteven, TCS, Albert, Shteven, BM, Shteven, Yogurt, BM, inHimshallibe. Repeated wavering, and eager to jump around. The first one was a joke, but afterwards they all appeared serious, or at least as serious as he has been.

MoS's "save" of guardian has already been mentioned. This one falls to whether or not you think MoS would be that straightforward; if not, it's sadly WIFOM. I put some stock into this. Securing a mislynch for any day is worth the risk, in my mind. Perhaps not as much day 1, though, as lynches are likely to fail already; but all it takes is ~2 non-mafia lynches early on and the game is solidly in the mafia's camp. Night kills can still interfere, if you get lucky as we have.

I'll pick up the case on glork for day 3, I think. That is, if Guardian turns out to be scum. I've become undecided on Glork for now; I think his alignment will probably match Guardian's.

Unvote. Vote: Guardian

vote:shteven]

I find this post very scummy for lynch -2 on a bad wagon. I believe guardians claim.

[Jack]

That should be

Vote;shteven

and 'quite scummy'.

[Sarcastro]

I don't really buy Guardian's claim, but it's apparent that he's not going to get lynched today, and there's a decent chance he'll get nightkilled even if he is scum.

I'm a bit torn between YB and Shteven right now. I was pretty sure YB was scum yesterday, but I've found my suspicion waning. I'm not really sure I buy the whole "YB can't be scum because MoS was voting YB and YB called MoS pro-town" thing, though that might just be because I think the two people advocating it are scummy.

Shteven, on the other hand, I've been more suspicious of today. I really don't like that post that Jack just quoted, in which Shteven awkwardly puts Guardian at lynch-2.

To answer you, AE, I think MBL looks a bit scummy and I'm not really sure about InHim, though I'd be inclined to say pro-town. I'm really in need of at least a partial re-read, to be honest - I'm just not very excited about the prospect of diving back into that sea of sheer boredom that is this game's first day.

At least for now,

Unvote, Vote: Shteven

[inHimshallibe]

The amount of times something about Guardian or Glork has gotten started, and then squelched and something on Shteven has sprung up is staggering. At

least

one of the two are scum.

I'm not going to be voting Shteven for a while.

[Battle Mage]

i really don't see the case on Shteven. If i had to pick out 1 person who i felt was probably town at this stage, i expect it would be him.

[Mastermind of Sin]

OMG I died...I had you all fooled...or at least enough of you