Micro 1073: Purgatory | Martyr PT

[furtiveglance]

Hey we aim to please. And remember, you could be back in business shortly!

[Aisa]

Yeah, are you sure I didn't AtE so much that you just changed the lemon's alignment for me?

[Aisa]

And I'm well aware I could be back in business shortly, haha. No friends for me this game either, we won't have another heaven phase.

[Aisa]

If Vox is scum I will cry*
*any crying is for illustrative purposes only and there is no welfare concern over here

But most importantly... noo the lemon was scum :'(
Tears being shed right now

[Aisa]

I would really appreciate it if someone pushed Enchant and Bella a bit, thanks

[Aisa]

Like surely there’s enough Aureal / Vanders / Ranger pushing each other in a circle now. It’s still interesting eg to note that Vanders is pushing Aureal and Ranger today, but if Vanders were to case Ranger that is not likely to be very novel

[Aisa]

I think that might actually mean Ranger is town then

I think naah - I don't know what alignment Ranger is, but the Vox-Ranger interaction is not that anti-associative, it looked like an achievable interaction for two mafia to have. There are not very many pairs that have less interaction with each other than Ranger-Vox. I guess Bella and OEnchant post have posted a bit less in general.

I might have at least been onto something with Vander and AV not really interacting though?

There are few slots Vanders seems to not have interacted with much. Can I name any Vanders/Bella interactions off the top of my head? Well, yes, but there isn't much. I think there are also some dead townies with whom there wasn't a ton of interaction (Drew? I guess there was a lot of indirect interaction via Ranger's read on that slot).

I think it's not so much that the Vanders-Vox relationship is special, and more that Vanders has focused on some slots more than others pretty much for the whole game. I suppose this can be a slight scumtell if you want. I think that if Vanders is scum he's been quite good at... pacing how posts and his pushes in a natural-looking way. Some choices or moments I could pick at, but also completely possibly towny. Grumble grumble judgment something ^^

So at five, vote out scum: we win?
Town, we go back to what we just had?

Then...aisa + whoever have to pick?

Seems that way

Uh, no! Sadly, I never get to have a friend.

Thinking that the team was Vanderscamp/Ranger/ArkoDrew was a LUDICROUS solve and it's really just not possible to believe that you actually thought this.

I wonder what you'd think of my Vanders/OEnchant/ArkoDrew solve, lol. I have held reads you people wouldn't believe...

For a while, the only votes on Ranger were Drew and me, two confirmed town from my POV.
Does scum never take the opportunity to hammer Ranger there?

I seem to recall someone gave an answer to this:

This isn't ELO, a quickhammer wouldn't end the game. If you're town, scum aren't all going to want to pile on just cuz since that will trigger judgment day for Aisa to make a last ditch effort to eliminate a mafiaoso. They ought to be worried about piling onto a bad wagon.

If you are mafia, Vander, then this doesn't apply;
If Aureal is mafia, then Aureal is explaining why scum didn't pile on.

Either way, the explanation for why I wasn't voted out by scum is there.

If you are scum, then the scum couldn't pile on.
If Aureal is scum, then the scum could've but deliberately avoided doing so.

Tomorrow (24h from now), I'll review AV interactions/stances and others' view of AV.

Pretty funny that Vanders is getting that Aureal post quoted at him, I'm like relatively sure there's an older Vanders post where he clearly states that scum cannot just quickhammer, lol.

Ranger slightly misinterpreting Vanders or giving him the slightly wrong (imo) degree of benefit of the doubt here does seem +scum, but trying to not get too hung up on small individual scummy things like these

[Aisa]

Ranger's first half of #676 and last part of #677 are pretty good explanations of why Aureal's stuff made no sense.

He was giving a lot of credence to the Arco/Ox interaction as never being scum/scum, but not the Ranger/me interaction, when that interaction should have been far more obvious, and additionally I was the main person (correctly) advocating that Arco/Ox wasn't scum/scum, and he was putting me as the third member of that scum team.

I also think there have been instances of this from other players, e.g. see earlier in this PT when I thought Drew was scum for something similar. And I think I might have noticed a similar problem with a post from someone else, can't remember who at this point.

[Aisa]

It is pretty fascinating to contemplate what Vox moving the heaven vote onto me must have meant, now that we know his alignment for sure.

[Aisa]

EV for town here is 70%. Didn’t realise it was quite so high.

[Aisa]

I'm not scumreading Vanders at the moment, so the wagon on him is pretty alarming

[Aisa]

Enchant just unvoted? My dear, where am I supposed to fit two scum in this playerlist?

[Aisa]

but then aisa caught a scum anyway (GJ, but I wish we could talk!)

Me: not going to fall for what could be a blatant pocketing attempt. I'm not going to let this comment influence my read.

Me, walking around 5 minutes later: ooh... Bella sounded so towny in that post...

[Aisa]

Bella's perspective is the closest to mine right now, not sure what this means though.

And yeah, those last few posts by Vanders are very towny.

[Aisa]

I have no idea what’s going on but I’m enjoying just reading along seeing the turns and twists.

[Aisa]

Except I think Vanders is town.

[Aisa]

Page 18:

Ranger hammers with an apparent misunderstanding of the plurality elimination rules? Weirder and weirder.

Both Vander and Oclax are arguing for Ranger to get voted out D3 and it's hard to argue with that, even though Drew seems a little scummier. Ranger is looking very much like a linchpin here with Drew, Aisa, Vander, Oclax, all having significant interactions. Drew/Ranger/Aisa team maybe? Will have to look into it more in-depth later, but a few more pages to go!

Page 20 (*yawns* almost there...):

Vander and Aisa are looking like the most likely heaven candidates. This matches my TRs. So I should feel good about that. It also makes me feel nervous. Is one of them pulling the wool over our eyes? (Please not both, ow.) [...]

There is a 3 hour interval between these posts. I've definitely talked myself in and out of townreads in less time, so this is not necessarily indicative, but... interesting change of reads.

[Aisa]

Alright, I went through Vander's ISO and tried to note every interaction to get a better picture of how he feels. Next up, Aisa (but not until a more reasonable hour).

Arko/Drew:

"mild town" in 24; not scum with OE in 89; likes the Oc/Arko read even more in 146; not obvious what's super towny in 195; null, vaguely towny in tone in 270; doesn't think he's made a dozen posts that are towny in tone like Ranger thinks in 292; more likely town if Ranger is scum in 547

Blood/Aureal:

agrees with Blood that they don't agree with OE's case in 90; quite towny and agrees with everything in 272; has sounded fairly towny in 548

Oclaxian/Enchant:

disagrees with case in 90; questions OE's reading an implication in 91; top scumread in 93; disagrees that meta is unreliable in 106; not feeling an Oc vote in 107; likes the Oc/Arko read even more in 146; "Stop" to Oc's self-vote; posts this page have been very towny in 199; towniest player so far in 240; response to Ranger's case was very towny in 262; willing to vote Oc for heaven but thinks it wouldn't get through unless incorrect in 453; most likely town but non-consensus opinion in 456; townier than Aisa in 548

Aisa:

disagrees that page 3 sounded like playful ribbing in 92; replies to Aisa's reply that she skimmed in 123; answers questions on Oc/Arko interactions in 145; asks why TR is terrifying in 194; asks if Aisa thoroughly read Ranger's Arko read; response on Arko sounds more real in 278; response to questions was fine in 297; agrees with Bella towncase in 543; had been mostly null until Bella towncase in 544; not comfortable with sending Aisa to heaven in 548; feels worse from association with Ranger vote in 549

Ranger:

asks why Arko is by far the towniest in 195; doesn't believe Ranger has TRs on all those Arko posts in 196; elaborates that if those reads were true Ranger would open with them not an associative in 199; more disagreement that Arko read is too strong to be real in 202-206; acknowledges error about associative read and continues to disagree because Arko read and asks about Arko's E-2 backpedal in 258; case on OE is okay but not sold in 262; sardonic question in 263; Ranger is assuming Arko is town and working backwards in 278; response to Ranger's accusation of hypocrisy in 292; scum justifying a read on someone in 293; concerned that Ranger hammered Kowah in 345; more disagreement on hypocrisy/Arko read in 433; should be snap limmed D3; still arguing that Ranger's argument/read isn't true in 444; legacy is to kill Ranger in 445; doesn't like just about anything she's posted in 446; questioning Ranger's wagon analysis in 545; asks why Aisa thinks he hasn't been trying to convince people Ranger is scum in 546; probably just open wolfing with vote in 549; keeps posting things he doesn't like and asks for reasons why Ranger is not evil in 554

Bella:

notes that Aisa's response to questions was fine in 297; more towny than not in 300; agrees with Aisa's towncase of Bella in 543; had been mostly null but Aisa's towncase post is quite strong in 544; townier than Aisa in 548

Kawaii/Kowah:

question reeks of fake hunting in 318; doesn't think it was a relevant thing to discuss in 345; Kowah hammer seems fine in 432

AV:

also interested in answers to AV's questions in 197; has sounded fairly towny in 548


TL;DR:

Arko/Drew:

mild town read pretty consistent throughout even as he argues about Ranger's stronger TR

Blood/Aureal:

no interaction, townread stays consistent

Oclaxian/Enchant:

disagreement initially causes drop to top scumread but lets a feeling stop him from voting then indicates growing townread

Aisa:

questions Aisa with expectation of scumread but response is fine so she remains null until towncasing Bella but still has concerns about association with Ranger

Ranger:

constant barrage of trying to tear down Ranger over the strong TR of Arko and then arguing over several more things

Bella:

no interaction, towny null until Aisa's towncase which strengthens read

Kawaii/Kowah:

little interaction but disagreement/suspicion in what little chance there was to have any

AV:

no real interaction, no read at all until talking about who is towny in comparison to Aisa in 548


I think it's pretty solid overall. Reads make sense, some change as circumstances change, no real about faces other than letting gut feeling stop him from pursuing Oclax. A few players get basically ignored but it seems fairly natural given the state of the thread, though it does feel a little weird that AV is one of them and the most ignored since it feels like he was more active than the others?

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

Aureal used wall post! It was super effective!

[Aisa]

I messed up my spoiler tag, lol. Anyway, am wondering if Aureal could be mafia, and I'm quite torn. There are

so many words

in her ISO. But some of the words I can see coming from scum, they seem... kinda carefully measured. Again... the good thing is that I get to not worry about it yet. I'll let the townies try and sort it out ^^

[Aisa]

In case I haven't made it clear... strong scum performance from whoever is still in the game.

[Aisa]

Maybe Bella can tentatively be town. I promise it’s not because she praised me for getting AV!

Vote me and we win when Aisa sends Aureal.
Vote Aureal and we win on the spot. You risk nothing, If i am mafia and Aureal is town, Aisa just sends me next instantly and town still win.
If we both town THEN we lose. Well Aureal is not town though.


So yeah vote and wrap game out already, i am bored.

^ feels more like town enchant than any other post@ aureal

This is the exact same thought I had

Looking at just page 30, I do lean towards the most likely two combos of the four being,
{Vanderscamp, Enchant}
or
{Aureal, Bellaphant}

Enchant vs Aureal makes it unlikely both are scum given one scum elimination wins the town the game. It's

possible

(gambiting on neither being eliminated), but unlikely.

Since {Vanderscamp, Aureal} is never a team (same as above only much stronger), by PoE, the only team with Aureal would be Bellaphant, and 738 supports this as possible.

Inversely, while Enchant did vote Vanderscamp, the unvote and discussion on page 30 fit as a scumbuddy laying the groundwork to leave anti-buddy interactions which don't endanger either party.

Enchant/Areal are seriously pushing each other.
Vanderscamp/Areal are seriously pushing each other.

Enchant/Vanderscamp appear to be doing the opposite.

However, again; just page 30. I need a deep dive of the other 30 pages to get a better read.

I have a couple of issues with this post: trying to position yourself as the 'loudest' when we basically have the same amount of posts feels disengous and narrativey in the way that some of aureal post do. Also, it just lacks nuance generally: a lot of the 1v1s in the game have felt really picky, like 'technically' or whatever the arko thing was, or whether it's valid to have an early read, or now whether it's valid for aureal to brainstorm a thought process or not. As well as being off putting from the thread, they've all also seemed fairly confusing, which makes me wonder if it's theatre? The only 'genuine' thing seemed to be ox self voting, which is an emotion repsinse but doesn't mean town. Like, normally I can read an argument and work out where the two people are missing each other, but especially this aureal/vander one in kinda failing? I think that bussing in this game is more utility than normal, too.

Bella, what do you think Enchant's motivation here is?

You're the one most familiar with Enchant, your input would be appreciated here!

Part of me feels enchant is unreadable here on purpose. I've said to them twice I'm usually ok at reading them and been ignored/not engaged with, so they obviously don't want to talk about it? They also seem to scum read me/you/vander?? It doesn't feel very progress minded.

Enchant wants to win, generally. It's where the town!enchant mech spech comes from. It's also weirdly hard to vote then out, because people aren't confident reading them: they got vigged by their own traitor in our last game! I'm not seeing that here.

Wait, Vox lied about Ranger supporting Vander in the heaven vote and nobody pointed it out until now??? WTF

Watch, Aisa is going to be the only one who noticed it and that's why she zapped him.

Ugh. I read through avs iso last night trying to find interactions but he felt fairly distant from everyone? I asked him a few questions because I didn't feel engaged with but a lot of his early game was circular/insular

This also feels towny

[Aisa]

Also I like “Enchant wants to win” as a way to read him, I’m gonna try that next time he’s in a game with me. It’s a very simple concept but somehow my favourite framing so far.

[Aisa]

If I’m right about Bella and Vanders that leaves {Ranger, Enchant, Aureal} as a PoE. Which seems possible.

[Aisa]

The fact scum have to take a specific line today should help, so I should think about it a bit.

Scum have to survive two eliminations. There are several ways I can think of that you could try to set this up:
- try to split the playerlist into a 2v2 / 3v2, but have the two scum on opposite sides, bussing each other. Get a mislim on one side, hope I yeet a townie on the other side.
- let the townies eat each other (viable eg if you are Bella!scum)
- try to set up someone as an “obvious” elimination, then find a reason to pivot to a different townie, hope I yet the “obvious” elimination.

In practice idk if anyone is doing any of this stuff. We’ll see

if my Vanders and Bella reads are accurate that’s the game mostly solved anyway, the danger mostly lies in me being incorrect on them

[Aisa]

If Bella is scum here she is:
- maybe giving Enchant and Aureal a little push
- but also optimising quite hard for looking towny

Something like Bella + Enchant in particular seems quite unlikely, Ench is in quite a fraught position and what she’s doing would be quite counterproductive