Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Adel]

The Fonz and Simenon may recall this playstyle from Basically Communist Mafia. Simenon may also remember the way I posted in Open 19. The Fonz probably remembers how I posted in Treestump mafia. Jitsu and Oman probably remember the way I posted during day 1 in Undergroud Mafia.

Just because I have never acted sane during a day 1 in a game we were in together doesn't mean that I don't have a record of acting sane during day 1s.

[curiouskarmadog]

what is your point?

[shaft.ed]

The Fonz and Simenon may recall this playstyle from Basically Communist Mafia. Simenon may also remember the way I posted in Open 19. The Fonz probably remembers how I posted in Treestump mafia. Jitsu and Oman probably remember the way I posted during day 1 in Undergroud Mafia.

Just because I have never acted sane during a day 1 in a game we were in together doesn't mean that I don't have a record of acting sane during day 1s.

Good points. It's just that I've played with you in about 3 or 4 day 1's now and this is very different to me. Though I'm not sure why Erg0 taking you at face value is critical.

[curiouskarmadog]

well, i doubt that anyone is going to take anyone in this game at face value...we all have metas on each other (on the most part).

[Adel]

Though I'm not sure why Erg0 taking you at face value is critical.

*hint:*

3. I doubt that tracks or traps will work well, unless they are really really subtle.

[Simenon]

The Fonz and Simenon may recall this playstyle from Basically Communist Mafia.

Nope.
I remember a DGB-esque replacement rant followed by good posting in endgame.

[Oman]

Jitsu and Oman probably remember the way I posted during day 1 in Undergroud Mafia.

Nope in replaced in late.

Happy steakday (so I use Marfur, sue me) CKD.

[shaft.ed]

Though I'm not sure why Erg0 taking you at face value is critical.

*hint:*

3. I doubt that tracks or traps will work well, unless they are really really subtle.

Well that's kind of why I asked. Seems you had your bases covered. Was a bit odd to single out Erg0.

[Erg0]

It's because of a comment that I made somewhere that I never take anything she does at face value.

[mith]

Vote Count 6

Oman[4] (Erg0, vollkan, shaft.ed, Shanba)
cicero[2] (Adel, Oman)
Erg0[2] (cicero, Simenon)
vollkan[1] (Jitsu)
shaft.ed[1] (The Fonz)
Simenon[1] (BillyTwilight)


Not Voting[1] (curiouskarmadog)

[curiouskarmadog]

Happy steakday (so I use Marfur, sue me) CKD.

thank you.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz and Simenon may recall this playstyle from Basically Communist Mafia.

The only thing i remember was you getting me lynched for opposing a massclaim that was actually against the interests of the town.

. The Fonz probably remembers how I posted in Treestump mafia.

Like scum?

[cicero]

I'm back from my vacation now but am catching up on stuff at work and at home. I'm engaged but cant make a big post responding to questions quite yet. I'm a little surprised at how discussion slowed down. I'd like to know what Shanba is up to. I dont see a lot from him yet. My vote on Erg0 still makes me happy for now. He doesnt feel like curious town. Neither does Shanba. His "I don't like cicero's defense, vote Oman" made no sense at all.

Billy Twilight and others can comment on why my defense seems "strained". Near as I can tell, I'm quicker to call somethign a town tell, but people seem to think that means more to me than it does. I have no problem suspecting Simenon if he does scummy things and I already think some things he's done are scummy. Others townie. Mostly he's just being provocative which is good in the early game.

Simenon, going by memory you asked me something about whether every time I vote do I think the person "is scum" in response to me saying "why am I scum". The answer is what you might expect. I vote for people that I think have done something scumMY and preferably for the scumMIEST though I do votehop like a fiend to put pressure on a particular person i want more info and reaction from. Unlike some other players in this game I'm not very "tricksy". I dont do a lot of disingenious things to gauge reactions and generally (though certainly not always) disapprove when others do it because I think gambitting is far less effective than others seem to think it is.

Sorry - more will have to wait until probably tomorrow.

[shaft.ed]

OK so the consensus seems to be that Adel hasn't played this conservative before. I don't know what that means, but it obviously has my attention.

I also agree Shanba, Jitsu, Billy and Erg0 are not contributing enough.

[curiouskarmadog]

My contact with Adel (2-3 games)...she always plays different and I always tend to think she is scummy. Dont know why. I have played in two games with cierco and if I recall, he does vote hop quite frequently...

also still waiting,

vote shanba

[vollkan]

What this game really needs is for somebody to do something stupid. That usually gets things rolling.

Interesting. You apparently have a clear idea about what "needs" to be done, but you yourself aren't actually prepared to do it? Any reason why?

Was this a joke?

It was puffed-up inquisition-style.

I wasn't expecting that.

Nobody was.

Don't be silly. Decent scum will act antitown whenever they think they can get away with it, and protown when they can't. Thus accepting the 'it was a mistake' line allows more antitown things to be done.

With the "it was a mistake", that needs to be considered and, usually, will be worth treating with skepticism. Decent scum shouldn't try and rely on "it was a mistake", unless doing so will afford significant advantage and have little risk (ie. a newbie scum might get away with an 'accidental' hammer)

1. there are no idiots or assholes playing in this game
2. I am not distracted due to being in too many games
3. I doubt that tracks or traps will work well, unless they are really really subtle.
4. I would like Erg0 to take me at face value, if possible

And the missing:
5. Playing conservative is probably the biggest mindfuck I could possibly cause.

OK so the consensus seems to be that Adel hasn't played this conservative before. I don't know what that means, but it obviously has my attention.

The reasons she's given are sensible, but since they come from her they might be false. I'm not reading anything into it at this stage (partly because I like conservative play )

[Jitsu]

My apologies to everyone. I wasn't intending to be gone so long, but work intervened and I had little choice.

I'll post my thoughts on what has happened so far.

There are are a few interesting things about the Cicero wagon. When the wagon was starting to build, it occurred to me pretty quickly that Simenon was just trolling for a reaction. (Guardian and Oman did this to an extent in Mafia in Vollville on Day 1.) Cicero's response in 40 arouses my curiosity, particularly in how he declared Simenon's act a weak town tell (and not just "I don't find it scummy"). I can think of a number of interesting interpretations of this. Maybe it's a subtle scum attempt at buddying up a bit to help derail the wagon. Maybe it's a calculated gambit to see if Simenon and/or Oman will press too hard and overcommit on their case against him. Maybe it's just a simple attempt to feel Simenon out. The wording here does sound a bit funny -- it's enough to raise my eyebrow and wonder about his intentions though, but I'm not going to jump on him for this alone.

Simenon is clearly still pushing buttons in 43, and Adel and Oman quickly follow suit, maybe because they smell a little blood in the water?

Apparently it worked, because in 47 Cicero seems to retaliate in a relatively serious tone, as opposed to the subtle jabs in the previous posts. Cicero generally looks frustrated here, almost as if the bringing up of the town tell hit a nerve. Given that only 6 minutes elapsed between Oman's shit-stirring post 44 and Cicero's rebuttal in 47, I kind of doubt that Cicero had a lot of time to plan something elaborate in that interval, though. While his answer could have been previously rehearsed, that would have taken a decent amount of foresight. I'm guessing that Cicero's reaction here is more likely to be genuine, either "You numbnuts have the wrong man!" or "Damnit, those meddling townies are turning up the pressure on me with a completly lucky crapwagon!"

And the vote in 47 is odd. Why single out Adel, when everyone else is stirring up the crap? Cicero's earlier rebuttals seem to be saying the wagon against him is baseless, so why does he keep reacting to it? I like Oman's response in 49, but I disagree with Oman's dislike of Cicero proclaiming himself as town. I see this as a legitimate tactic -- I think it could help reduce slips if you always refer to yourself as town, regardless of your alignment. Personally, I see it as a null tell, because that's my style too (OK, maybe I'm a little biased on that one).

With Cicero's 51, there is a bit more inconsistency. If Cicero thinks Simenon is a possible townie (weak town tell), why is he suggesting Oman vote for him? Isn't the point here that Simenon could have done what he did as either town or scum? The rest of this post is decidedly wishy-washy and ineffective. (I did notice that this was covered later on.)

Cicero's 56 and 57 though are better posts. These seem to be constructive and more focused -- and that's only 10 minutes after his less than stellar 51. After Adel's good point in 60, Cicero's 61 seems a bit off the mark. We should see flippant people as town because they have more of a luxury to do so? Sorry, but this seems like a one-sided analysis to me. I think you have to consider all the situational factors behind someone's actions to understand them. In a vacuum by itself, I don't think flippancy means much.

Up until this point, I've found Simenon's tactics fairly legit, but I'm wondering why he reversed himself in 62 about the wagon never really being a joke, just after he said it started out as one? Then in the next paragraph, he talks about how he said it stopped being a joke. So which is it? If the Cicero wagon was simply a means of advancing the game and getting a read on Cicero, it should have been easy to keep a consistent story ("I was only half-serious at first, trolling for a reaction, but then I saw something in Cicero's responses..."). I don't know if this is significant or not, but I'll remember it. This post seems a bit evasive.

Shaft.ed's 64 is odd. First he takes a parting shot at Oman for shifting the wagon to Cicero. Um, right, Oman did have three votes on him and Cicero only two at the end of page one, but you're really upset at Oman trying to "derail" a page 1 joke wagon by voting for Cicero? (This comes up later in 92 and other posts.) Also, Shaft.ed seems to jump into the "flippant" argument. Oddly, he seems to treat the "flippant" agrument at least semi-seriously, even though he disagrees with the town tell on Simenon. If Cicero thinks Simenon is town because he is flippant, and Shaft.ed disagrees it's a town tell, why the hell is being flippant relevant at all? I see the smiley after the last bit, but it still sounds like he's being half-serious here.

I agree with Vollkan's 76. Being silly by itself, especially early on Day 1, is a null tell until it can be put into context later.

In Cicero's 83, we finally get a sensible explanation for his town tell (that's really was I was expecting to hear all along). I don't think his attack on Adel's statement quite hits the mark though. Maybe a weak town tell and a null tell are not really that different, but saying something is a tell gives us information on your thought process ("I generally use this as a way to find scum") versus Adel's less committal statement that she simply found one scenario more likely than the other. Interesting possible connection mentioned by Cicero between Adel and Simenon, but I think it also raises the specter of a Cicero/Simenon pair also (as Adel points out later). Isn't Cicero here kind of defending his own WIFOM while denouncing Adel's?

Simenon's 93 is a bit snarky and evasive, but even thought he has a good question in there, but I'm puzzled why in 95 he gave up on the Cicero wagon before some of the other players weigh in -- and what is the reason for switching to Erg0 (as opposed to unvoting or choosing someone else). (After reading a bit more, I see Adel said basically said the same thing in 100.)

Shanba's 96 lacks a lot of reason. He's voting for Oman because he doesn't like how Shanba is defending himself? Huh?? Shaft.ed calls him out on this in the next post, and Oman mentions it again in 105. Both good points. I also like The Fonz's 106-7. Vollkan's reply is correct, but I happen to strongly agree with The Fonz as a matter of policy -- decent townies should not act anti-town. That's what my playstyle is all about.

Regarding Shaft.ed's 117, I did get two town wins in two tries, but part of it was luck of the draw. In all fairness, I think I did do my part as a vanilla townie in both games, but I also played with an impressive cast of townies in both games, which certainly helped.

Hmmm, so in Shaft.ed's 124, we find that the allegation that Oman pushing the wagon was a joke. This seems in contrast to the serious sounding explanation he gave in 92. How does 131 fit into this? Was this an honest joke or an attempt to cast suspicion that failed? I'm not sure.

As for CKD's 137, here is your mountain. I do apologize for being away longer than I expected, but I'll be able to post more regularly now, I think. And it does take time to write my mountains.

As for Adel's playstyle, I agree with Vollkan. Adel being totally honest and not acting scummy would tend to mess with my head. My problem with Adel is that I get paralyzed by analyzing to try to figure out what she is really thinking. By her own admission, what she says is often very different from what she is thinking. This makes her incredibly hard to read (and lynch), as she tends to be a few steps away from where she appears. I have tried to combat this by being patient and look for larger trends with her instead of reacting to every little thing she says. But in this game, so far, she definitely seems to have dialed down the level of obfuscation.

Now that I've written this mountain, I need to go over and try to analyze my analysis.

But in any case, it seems clear I should change my vote. While I sort out where I am on the others, I want to hear more from Shanba and his reasons for post 96.

Unvote: Vollkan, Vote: Shanba

[Oman]

Jesus, I'm awesome at mafia.

Unvote: Vollkan, Vote: Shanba

TL;DR version.

[Jitsu]

Jesus, I'm awesome at mafia.

Unvote: Vollkan, Vote: Shanba

TL;DR version.

I'm sorry, I don't understand your abbreviations.

[Simenon]

Jesus, I'm awesome at mafia.

Unvote: Vollkan, Vote: Shanba

TL;DR version.

I'm sorry, I don't understand your abbreviations.

"Too long; Didn't Read."

In other words, Oman didn't read your post, but assumed your subsequent vote must be correct.

I'll get to your post in a bit, Jitsu.

[BillyTwilight]

TL;DR = "too long; didn't read"

[Jitsu]

"Too long; Didn't Read."

In other words, Oman didn't read your post, but assumed your subsequent vote must be correct.

I'll get to your post in a bit, Jitsu.

Got it, thanks. Maybe I would be a good idea to add those terms should be in the wiki in the abbreviations/acronyms section?

[The Fonz]

OK so the consensus seems to be that Adel hasn't played this conservative before. I don't know what that means, but it obviously has my attention.

I also agree Shanba, Jitsu, Billy and Erg0 are not contributing enough.

Holy crap, can we please lynch him already?

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed's 64 is odd. First he takes a parting shot at Oman for shifting the wagon to Cicero. Um, right, Oman did have three votes on him and Cicero only two at the end of page one, but you're really upset at Oman trying to "derail" a page 1 joke wagon by voting for Cicero? (This comes up later in 92 and other posts.)

The comment towards Oman about the bandwagon was primarily to gauge his reaction to it. If he had reacted overly defensive or incredibly longwinded about it I would have been worried. His reply was pretty much what I expected.

Also, Shaft.ed seems to jump into the "flippant" argument. Oddly, he seems to treat the "flippant" agrument at least semi-seriously, even though he disagrees with the town tell on Simenon. If Cicero thinks Simenon is town because he is flippant, and Shaft.ed disagrees it's a town tell, why the hell is being flippant relevant at all? I see the smiley after the last bit, but it still sounds like he's being half-serious here.

My point was that I view behavior relative to ones baseline more important than behavior in general. I'm not familiar with Simenon so I didn't know what to expect from him. This is also why I've been posting about Adel quite a bit because she is behaving so far off what I am accustomed to from her.

[shaft.ed]

OK so the consensus seems to be that Adel hasn't played this conservative before. I don't know what that means, but it obviously has my attention.

I also agree Shanba, Jitsu, Billy and Erg0 are not contributing enough.

Holy crap, can we please lynch him already?

So it doesn't bother you when a player's style changes 180 degrees from their norm?