Minvitational Game 1

[Samadhi]

I have a great simulator, very accurate and versatile. But very slow. It's called pen and paper.

[Samadhi]

I'll post more later. I want to run my simulator and I also want to consider the situation.

[mith]

post to fix post count

[Antrax]

Well, this is looking bleak. I've ran my simulation, 10000 games, under the following terms:
"New" game with 9 players (1 cop, 1 doc, 3 mafia, 4 townies). Unlike our game, the cop didn't have two previous investigative results. The reason for that was that I wanted to assume worst case scenarion (ie our cop checked on DP and Sofis).
As long as the doc is alive, the town only lynches if the cop found a mafia at night. Once the mafia get the doc, the town begins to lynch whoever isn't the cop (ie, no "revealed townie" support). The reason the simulation doesn't support revealed townies is that I assumed that's who the mafia would shoot, making it moot. However, it WOULD have a small effect on our game.

With these conditions in mind, the win percentage for the mafia if the cop comes out and the town plays nolynch is 82.75%. Hardly promising. I'll debug the program later tonight, the figures seem off to me, but I knew this game was stacked in favour of the mafia.
Antrax

[mith]

...

[mith]

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[mith]

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[Quailman]

The more I think about it, the more I agree with Jalyn's gut feeling about the cop. Only if we're going to lynch a confirmed innocent or let a bad guy get away should he come out. Or possibly if he knew 2 Mafia's then let us know now, but that scenario is less than 1% probablility.

Of course, the only other information available to me is the drivel that seems to have spilled into this thread from the gulf coast of Florida and also from the middle east. Other than making me highly suspicious of the two of them, it's useless.

[Antrax]

Uh, seeing as the purpose of my "drivel" was to make you realise I think IS is mafia, and now you're suspicious of him, I fail to see how it's "pointless".
And another interesting question: why go on Jalyn's Bowels when you have a tested computer simulation with the exact figures?
Antrax

[Werebear]

Hm, sorry about the miscount on my part. it was too early in the morning. Thanks for correcting the numbers.

Antrax and IS - you two seem like you're behaving normally, Antrax on the verge of tearing someone's throat out on the slightest half-idea... and IS keeping his offensive yap shut until someone pokes him, then spewing out a torrent of sewage. Seems pretty standard to me, though I am more suspicious of IS than Antrax, probably because he offends my delicate sensibilities. *Grin*

Now, Samahdi, Quailman, and mole, on the other hand... all quiet, making off topic comments, seeming to avoid conflict. I can't really vote for them, as might be the plan, but I'd like to at least hear what they have to say, other than statistics. Oh, and I think the cop coming out now is a pretty bad idea with 9 people left, unless they have at least one mafia targeted.

FoS - Mole

, who thinks a visible cop is nifty.

Werebear

[Antrax]

...I feel ignored. If the cop comes out now, and he has no mafia for us, we're a little under 82.75% likely to lose. There's no gut feeling part to this. It's tested, as much as a psychological game CAN be tested.
Antrax

[Werebear]

You know, Antrax, reading back over the thread, especially pages 1 and 2, you're really vocal and annoying, and you also started the finger pointing to s00th, remember s00th? The townie we lynched? Something mafia is more than delighted to stir up. I suppose this means I'll be a target for your wrath, but it's something to think about. One note, at least you're following your normal pattern of behavior, as far as I can tell... of course, you behave that way town or mafia. *grin*

And, I forgot last message, Mith? You suck. Leave me alone. Go harass IS or Antrax or Mole.

Werebear

[Antrax]

I started the finger pointing to sooth? eh? And now I'll be after you? Which dimension are you living in?

of course, you behave that way town or mafia

Well duh. Anyone who can't do that doesn't belong in this game.
Antrax

[quercitron]

And they're off...

Antrax: 1 (IS)
IS: 1 (Antrax)

[mole]

Antrax: Okay, you've almost convinced me. But I think the power of the unrevealed townies is greater than you think. Even if we just have one or two (other than the cop) next round, we've narrowed the pool of potential scum down to four or five people, and that should make it a lot easier than picking them from a pool of seven.

And it's all well and good to give us the worst-case scenario and tell us we're going to lose if we go ahead with this, but how does it compare with our chances if the cop doesn't come forward now? If we botch this lynching, we put ourselves at the mercy of the mafia - what happens if two people claim to be cops? Or the cop is shot? The next round could be the last - I think it's far too dangerous not to do something

now

.

More to come when I get home - I'd like to get some numbers of my own, for a start...

[Werebear]

um, mole? we're all waiting breathlessly...

Werebear

[mith]

*~turns blue~*

[Antrax]

I re-ran the simulation, to see wether the cop should come out if he has a mafia pinned down. The mafia wins 64.02% of the time if that's the case. Better than our current odds, IMO.
Antrax

[mole]

I submit that

any

information will improve our chances.

My numbers are still being processed (all I have is excel at the moment, bah), so all I have is the basic data for the lynchings - and anyone can make those, really - just take (# of mafia)/(# of players - 1[cop] - # of townies the cop has cleared)

If the cop doesn't come forward, we have a

33.4%

chance of catching a mafia at random.
It the cop does come forward, but doesn't have any information, we have a

37.5%

chance (agree with Antrax here - the worst case scenario is completely useless)
If our cop has an innocent he won't vote for, we're up to

42.9%

And if he has two innocents we're at

50.0%

Those are just for random lynchings - we can do much better with evidence from the thread. If the cop's clever enough, he won't need to reveal the people he knows are innocent - they will be far more valuable in later rounds.

[Antrax]

mole, you're looking ahead 1 ply. If you look to the end of the game, you'll find out that our odds of winning this overall are pretty slim. Then again, the game was stacked in favour of the mafia since day 1, so I dunno which is the best course of action. My simulation is limited in the sense it doesn't has support for cleared people, nor does it exhibit the fact we don't really lynch at random, and finally it ignores the "other mafiosi bandwagonning" factor which can help a mafia evade a lynch. Not perfect, but the outcome looks bleak. The fact if the cop has two innocents figured we haev 50% of lynching a mafia doesn't mean we'll win even if we do hit the mafia.
Antrax

[Jalyn]

I went throught the probabilities of the cop dying each night. This list assumes the mafia making their kill each night. The odds for the cop dying each night are based on the odds of the doc dying the night before.

Reveals No Reveal
Lynch Townie 0% 20%
Lynch Mafia 0% 17%
No Lynch 0% 17%
1 death
Lynch Tw, Ttw 20% 33% (Game Over)
Lynch Tw, Maf 20% 25%
Lynch Maf, Tw 17% 25%
Lynch Maf, Maf 17% 20%
No Lynch, Maf 17% 20%
No Lynch, No Lynch 17% 20%

Lynch Tw, Maf, Maf 25% 33%
Lynch Maf, Tw, Tw 25% 50% (Game Over)
Lynch Maf, Tw, Maf 25% 33%
Lynch Maf, Maf, Maf 20% 25% (Game Over - Town Wins)
Lynch Tw, Maf, Tw 25% 50% (Game Over)
No, No, Maf 20% 25%
No, Maf, Maf 20% 25%
No, No, No 20% 25%

Lynch 1 Tw, 2 Maf, Tw 33% 100% (Game Over)
Lynch 1 Tw, 2 Maf, Maf33% 50% (Game Over - Town Wins)
No, No, No, Maf 25% 33% (Game Over)
No, No, Maf, Maf 25% 33%
No, No, No, No 25% 33% (Game Over)

No, No, Maf, Maf, No 33% 50% (Game Over)
No, No, Maf, Maf, Maf 33% 50% (Game Over - Town Wins)

If we lynch a townie today, we'll be in a lynch or lose situation for the rest of the game.
I would think that the odds of the cop having investigated two of the three deceased is the least likeliest of the possibilities, making the bleak picture Antrax portrayed the first time unlikely.

We get the most breathing room if we switch to not lynching unless we're sure of a mafia. (IE, have a cop telling us what to do.) But that means that we are just sitting back and letting the mafia take potshots at our cop - and if they find him/her before they let us know any results, we'll be in a really ugly situation.

I'm going to try to go through the possibilities, but I've been staring at this post window for half an hour, gotten a headache and actually have work to do, so that'll be later.

[Quailman]

This is getting us nowhere.

FOS: anyone who thinks the cop should come out

In the meantime,

vote: Antrax

I don't have investigative abilities (for the verbally challenged: I am not a Cop). But my browser has special powers, and if someone is Mafia Scum, it gives me a message right beneath their name. Alos, we've got to get this started someday.

[Antrax]

**** FINGER OF SUSPICION: Quailman ****

Let's see. First of all, you just say flat out the cop shouldn't come out, ignoring all the mathematical work. That's smart. Who wants facts when we can all just say what we think without any basis? Secondly, this is the second time you vote for me after someone else already has. In the first time your "attack" vs. me was so bad you were forced to retreat your vote, so now you just don't say anything and vote so I can't defend myself? that's smart.

IS, I'm still waiting for you to reply to my attack, btw. You go on and on in chat about how wrong I am, but you refuse to do it here?
Antrax

[jeep]

*sigh* All this theory is interesting, but will probably lose newbies who read this. I think the numbers discussion should be taken to another thread.

Honestly, no ones numbers count except mine, because they are the only ones I'll truly trust. If we play this M:TG style we have the greatest chance of winning, even with only one doc.

Everyone who is pro-town should

VOTE: IS

because the cop (that's me) found him as mafia. Doc should protect me greater than 99% of the time. I think we can afford the slight loss in equity we get if the doc protects me 100% of the time. I have one townie and one mafia investigated so far.

If we vote no lynch on the days I find no mafia, I get a probability of the town winning of >50%.

Also, I think that several people have eliminated themselves from the mafias list of potential cops, making their odds of hitting me better.

This will be a boring game if the doc continues to live. Here's to hoping it's a boring game.

-JEEP

[Jalyn]

OK then,

Vote: IS