Secret Society Mafia - Game Over

[Ghostlin]

2. BBMolla : When you are in a neighborhood with someone you have the possibility to obtain information that the rest of the town cannot. Among BBmolla, David Xanatos and Alabaska none of them could be werewolves, however and that's a bit of metagaming, a scum was likely to be there. Considering both of the other have been lynched or died, it leaves us with a very suspect BBmolla.

Horrible crap logic. Not to say BBMolla --isn't-- Mafia, and we've all kind of eagerly been prodded this way, some of us with less an honorable intentions but I just realized what bugs me about the scenario.

Let's say I was a Cop. Not a Seer, but a Cop. (I'm not, this is hypothesis.) Players A, B and C all turn up innocent. I then announce to the thread, in a drunken overstated idea of my superiority, that I know A, B and C cannot, with almost a 100% certainty, be mafia.

This only leaves three threads for Town to follow:
1) One or more of the players, but not all of them are werewolves.
2) None of the players are werewolves.
3) All of the players are werewolves.

Now, if A and B both flip Town, it only leaves us with 1 and 2 being the possibilities. In no way should we suspect 1 is true, and it would, in fact, not necessarily be logical and something scum might exploit to get another lynch.

[PeregrineV]

@Magua- Family holiday V/LA Nov23-Nov28. May be full, may be semi, but want to announce it just in case its full.

[Bogre]

Bogre, you just called Stefan scum for 'at best irresponsible use of his vote.' Then in your next post, you admit you broke a tie between two L-2 players without really paying any in-depth attention to either?

My vote wasn't irresponsible; it needed to be used at deadline. I didn't use it as well as I could because I glossed over DF being tied and I didn't take the time to research and tiebreak. I didn't just throw it randomly on lynches for the sake of lynches. StefanB has CHRONICALLY used his vote to further lynches and admitted he had no reason to do so.

[Global Warming]

So I'm still holding off on voting, waiting for con to get into the QT so we can have more WORDS WORDS WORDS WORDS.

Yos: A question about your "counterwagon to DF" comment on the DX wagon. Ignoring the fact this is a falsehood, I'd like to know about your thoughts on

why it was so hard to get a lynch through if this was the case

. It got drawn to deadline when scum would've had an easy time just jumping if they hadn't already. This implies multiple scum on the wagon before the deadline halt.

And a further question: what's your opinion, knowing that DX wagon showed up first and that DF was more of a "counterwagon," about the circumstance of the end of the game day?

[StefanB]

Bogre: Okay, where did I admite that I had no reasons for my votes. I am suprised that every lynch got trough in the game, that's right.
Stopp a moment about me votting only for lynches, when?
Do I want the people lynched, that I vote for yes.
Do I know if they are lynched? No.
I am so difficult to understand, or don't you even try?
I am normally iresponsible with my vote day 1, not afterwards.
Show me where me votes were only there to further lynches on day 2-5 (any of them)
Show me where I had no reason for my votes.
Read my posts, please Bogre.
Think about your points before you post.

[The Fonz]

Bogre, you just called Stefan scum for 'at best irresponsible use of his vote.' Then in your next post, you admit you broke a tie between two L-2 players without really paying any in-depth attention to either?

My vote wasn't irresponsible; it needed to be used at deadline. I didn't use it as well as I could because I glossed over DF being tied and I didn't take the time to research and tiebreak. I didn't just throw it randomly on lynches for the sake of lynches. StefanB has CHRONICALLY used his vote to further lynches and admitted he had no reason to do so.

It certainly IS irresponsible, when you have multiple options at deadline, to not make any attempt to check out the cases against them, and simply jump one 'for the sake of getting a lynch'. If Dry-Fit flips scum, there's no way that's not a scum connection. Obviously if he flips town, then it's simply reckless and less important.

Whispersilk needs to either catch up in the next day or two, admit she can't and replace out, or be policy lynched.

[Magua]

Vote Count 5.3

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

sorgster (5): Ghostlin, Bogre, PeregrineV, ToastyToast, Wraith
Dry-fit (4): Empking's Alt, The Fonz, Yosarian2, BBmolla
Otolia (2): sorgster, Dry-fit
Wraith (1): StefanB

Not voting (3): whispersilk, Otolia, Global Warming

V/LA: Ghostlin (11/24-11/27), PeregrineV (11/23-11/28), StefanB (12/3-12/8)

Deadline is November 28th, at 9:00pm EST.
Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2011-11-28 22:00:00)

[The Fonz]

This sorgster wagon just feels wrong. I'd be amazed if there isn't scum in Bogre/PV/Wraith, and probably more than one.

Oh, and @Ghostlin: I pretty much agree with you on Wraith right now. He'd be my best bet for a remaining wolf: He seemed to kinda be hiding behind me on the Sorgster/Dry-Fit wagons, which we now know were both alternatives to Wolfwagons. That seems to be a fairly common scum strat of late: basically, find the town player who's leading the alternative wagon, agree with him without adding much yourself, and defend him when attacked. Then you can protect your buddy and the 'Leader' of the counterwagon gets all the heat - and if/when he flips town, you can go 'Hey I was right!' It's pretty much exactly how I played Yos in Mafia with the hydras, except for the fact that I made more points of my own. I'd rather lynch DF or Peregrine, but he's up there.

[StefanB]

The Fonz: I know that is the exact oposite that I taught yesterday, but there is probably only 1 wolf remaining, if we are sure wouldn't it be good to eliminate him?
Pro: One kill only.
And two people who are in a antiwolfSS can leave them and are free to join other ones. I feel that is actually a good thing.
From all the votes regarding Sorgster Peregrine feels the most honest. He had his theory yesterday (about the fake hammer) and sticked to it, and then is VLA before he could read counterarguments.
Funny about Bogre, yesterday I would have called him town, but now...
And for all of you calling me irresponsible votting:
In the last 3 days I switched my vote twice. First after I realised somethink that I thought was make someone very likly scum and second after a guiltyclaim.
I would probably be on any lynch either way yesterday, if there would have been a massive switch to Dry-Fit yesterday and he got to L-1, then I would have hammered, because of the very short deadline.

And thanks to the mod for letting me continue to play, when there is a big VLA comming up. (As seen in the VC)

[ToastyToast]

Apparently I haven't posted in two days.
For those who are basing their votes on "1 wolf remaining", is there any particular reason you think there is another werewolf?

[The Fonz]

The big con there, though, is the loss of crosskill potential. Mafia appear to be going out of their way to try to eliminate the wolves.

I don't see why we'd want people to leave 'antiwolf' societies either. Can you explain what the benefit of that is, in your mind?

At the end of the day, a wolf lynch (if we have 4 man scumteams, which I think is most likely) would put us at 9-4 if the mafia manage to kill tonight. (If, as has been mooted, we have cyclical kills, then I would expect much higher numbers of starting scum - perhaps a 13-6-6 configuration). Mafia would need to get three mislynch-kill cycles, assuming no misviggings (a misvig would cost us a lynch, so any town shooting roles out there, for the love of God hold fire unless you're sure). Killing off the Wolves wouldn't be devastating (I once saw a large normal where town lynched five times, hit four scum, but they were all the same team so the town lost at the end of day five) but Mafia are our priority.

If there are somehow five-man scumteams (which is possible, if there's plenty of town power still out there) then it wouldn't get rid of a scumkill.

Basically, the way I'm looking at it is we need to lynch the single most likely scum, with mafia being slightly preferable but a wolf lynch being perfectly OK. So I want to lynch the individually scummiest people: atm DF or Peregrine.

[The Fonz]

Apparently I haven't posted in two days.
For those who are basing their votes on "1 wolf remaining", is there any particular reason you think there is another werewolf?

Toasty, I'd say five-man scumgroups are more likely than three-man. 19-3-3 is just HUGELY townsided.

[whispersilk]

I agree that we should try to aim for scum today if possible. I don't think sorg is wolf or scum. I'm going to look at DF in ISO.

[sorgster]

proddoge here now. I remember playing in a 35 person game with 1 sk and 4 scum(1 team) I think there are 2 sets of scumteams of 3 in this one. It would make more sense.

[Empking's Alt]

Apparently I haven't posted in two days.
For those who are basing their votes on "1 wolf remaining", is there any particular reason you think there is another werewolf?

Toasty, I'd say five-man scumgroups are more likely than three-man. 19-3-3 is just HUGELY townsided.

Are you sure? That's roughly one quarter scum.

[The Fonz]

Apparently I haven't posted in two days.
For those who are basing their votes on "1 wolf remaining", is there any particular reason you think there is another werewolf?

Toasty, I'd say five-man scumgroups are more likely than three-man. 19-3-3 is just HUGELY townsided.

Are you sure? That's roughly one quarter scum.

Crucially, just

less

than a quarter. Balanced games are usually between a quarter and a third scum, with multifaction games almost always being closer to a third than a quarter- a multifaction game always needs more scum than a single faction one. You'd expect six scum in a single-faction 25p game (town having six mislynches before lylo is pretty high): it's going to be more than that for a game with mafia AND wolves (it would take four days of mislynches, no crosskills and no blocked kills for town to even lose majority, and town can still win from a minority position). Although looking at it, the last three large normals I played had two groups of 3 in 24 plus a lyncher, 2 groups of 4 in 24, and a single group of six in 25. (Man, those cannot all have been balanced). Thinking about it, the one with groups of 3 WAS hugely townsided, although it had a ton of town power in addition to favorable numbers. I guess I take back the 3 vs 5 thing, but I think 4 is still far more likely.

[StefanB]

I see one benefit of having people leave anti-wolfSS, they are free to be recruited in other SS, which become stronger, when there are more people in it (BBMolla stated this day 3)
6 scum in 25 players would be okay, if they are one scumgroup.
4-4 is more logically imho.
5-5 would be to much scum.

But since it is in wolf interest now to kill mafia, leaving him alive could really be usful.

Unvote

Vote: Dry-fit

Fell better of that waggon, than on the sorgster or Otaliawagon. (Otalia because who is on it)

[Yosarian2]

Yos: A question about your "counterwagon to DF" comment on the DX wagon. Ignoring the fact this is a falsehood, I'd like to know about your thoughts on

why it was so hard to get a lynch through if this was the case

. It got drawn to deadline when scum would've had an easy time just jumping if they hadn't already. This implies multiple scum on the wagon before the deadline halt.

And a further question: what's your opinion, knowing that DX wagon showed up first and that DF was more of a "counterwagon," about the circumstance of the end of the game day?

(going to have very limited access over the long Thanksgiving weekend, but managed to find a minute to get on and post now)

That second sentance was really weird, GW. What do you mean "ignoring the fact that this is a falsehood." Are you saying that you know for a "fact" that Dry-fit is not mafia? How do you get that?

"counterwagon" doesn't necessarily mean that a bad wagon that was started in RESPONSE to a good wagon, you know. It just means that I think the mafia was supporting that wagon, and I think it's possible that they did so in order to protect Dry-Fit, who they probably knew was going to be in trouble since before the day started. But I also think that most of the mafia group was in the group that was voting for David:

David Xanatos (9): StefanB, Empking's Alt, BBmolla, Ghostlin, Global Warming, Dry-fit, sorgster, Bogre, Wraith

Too many people voted for David for really flimsy reasons.

As for your last sentence; your whole "why was it so hard to get a lynch through" thing doesn't really make sense. At this point, we can probably assume there's somewhere between 3 and 5 mafia members. That's not a big enough voting block to just push a wagon through on their own when it's 9 votes to lynch, and especially when influential and experienced people are opposing it as a bad wagon (me and Fonz both were at the time). Why are you surprised that it was hard for them to get the lynch through?

[Empking's Alt]

"counterwagon" doesn't necessarily mean that a bad wagon that was started in RESPONSE to a good wagon, you know.

Yes it necessarily means that a bad wagon that was started to counter a good wagon. The clue is in the name.

[Yosarian2]

"counterwagon" doesn't necessarily mean that a bad wagon that was started in RESPONSE to a good wagon, you know.

Yes it necessarily means that a bad wagon that was started to counter a good wagon. The clue is in the name.

You can have pre-emptive counter wagon, one started to try and protect a scumbuddy you expect to get wagoned on that day.

[Magua]

Vote Count 5.4

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

sorgster (5): Ghostlin, Bogre, PeregrineV, ToastyToast, Wraith
Dry-fit (5): Empking's Alt, The Fonz, Yosarian2, BBmolla, StefanB
Otolia (2): sorgster, Dry-fit

Not voting (3): whispersilk, Otolia, Global Warming

V/LA: Ghostlin (11/24-11/27), Yosarian2 (11/25-11/27), PeregrineV (11/23-11/28), StefanB (12/3-12/8)

Deadline is November 28th, at 9:00pm EST.
Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2011-11-28 22:00:00)

[whispersilk]

My problem with both the leading wagons is this:

There are at least 3 scum around, possibly 4, and possibly one more wolf (taking game balance into account). That's between 3-6 anti town players, with even the possibility of a third party force as well. Unless there is some major bussing going on, both the leading wagons could have 2-3 scum on each. I don't know that I believe scum would be bussing so hard at this point, when there is still obviously a good chance of securing another mislynch. The fact that strong players like Yosarian2, Wraith, Ghostlin and StefanB are still in the game, and none of them have really fallen under any real suspicion is just weird. It's like the same two players are being pushed as possible lynch choices, and no one else is being looked at. I don't think lynching sorg is a good idea (because of his actions when he thought he had been lynched), and after looking at DF in ISO, I don't think he comes off any more or less scummy than some other players like The Fonz or Peregrine. Otolia came under a lot of suspicion earlier in the game, and had a couple of cases against him, but he's pretty much dropped off the radar now.

[Empking's Alt]

Ot is the third in votes. Only three under Sorg.

[whispersilk]

Yeah, and no one is interested in voting for him except the two leading wagons.

[sorgster]

3 days until deadline.

Sadly oto will live another day

Unvote
Vote DryFit