Mafia 104 - Revenge of the Crimson King - Game!

[xRECKONERx]

MOD. PRODS AND OR REPLACEMENTS. PLEASE

vote: Dana

[SpyreX]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 5

danakillsu

- 4 - zoraster, Socrates, Raivann, xRECKONERx - (L-1)

Raivann

- 1 - Tarhalindur - (L-4)

Tarhalindur

- 1 - danakillsu - (L-4)

Players not voting: Pads, Wickedestjr

Prods will be going out on: Pads, Wickedestjr

[xRECKONERx]

Deadline is in two days.

[Wickedestjr]

Recieved prod for not posting in the last 25 hours.

I don't understand how I went from dana's vote to not scum according to post 1439. dana, can you please explain? Also, please don't ignore the questions in my analysis of you.

1: So do you think that if town votes no lynch, they lose? 2: If not, could it be best to leave it to the SK?

Possibly. If there are 4 scum left in Jupiter which there could be, then a no lynch could lose us the game. We would be putting the game in the SK's hands, and I'm not a fan of that idea.


Also, can somebody please explain why zoraster is suddenly town. If it is because of his vanilla town claim after supposedly being lynched, then what happened to this:

sure. Vanilla Townie. I assume you're scum?

I don't believe you, but Fuck, if true. (Last time we played the "Your lynched, whats your role?" game, he was a scumbag and just lied for the hell of it)

If zoraster is town, Then the SK MUST hit a scumbag tonight (might I suggest Dana?) and Tar MUST be town and MUST jailkeep correctly.

?

Honestly, I like the zoraster lynch more than the dana lynch, and I don't understand the sudden switch.

[Wickedestjr]

dana, are you the SK?

[xRECKONERx]

Unvote

.

I was just thinking... the whole "that was the hammer" thing could have been a set-up. Then again, I would've had to play right into it to ask zoraster for his claim. I just don't want dana at L-1 right now when there's a little more discussion to be had.

[danakillsu]

dana, are you the SK?

No. Is this a random question? Yes.
@xRECK
You've been switching your vote like MAD! The votes that you have cast have been opportunistic, but you never actually want to finish anyone off, which is really strange. I'm not adamant about you being scum, but you are just acting very suspicious.

Also, please don't ignore the questions in my analysis of you.

Sorry, can't find these. Could you just ask them again?

dana, can you please explain?

Well, you didn't completely drop off of my scumlist, as shown in the post you are referring to, but it's more what xRECK did than what you did.

[xRECKONERx]

Yes. I was seeing if anyone would hammer you. After Wicked didn't, it puzzled me.

[danakillsu]

I was at L-1, am at L-2, so I claim VT.

[Socrates]

This is getting tedious.

If we end the day in a no lynch, I shall be extremely cross.

[xRECKONERx]

YOU'VE ALREADY CLAIMED DANA.

[Socrates]

People need to ask themselves what the scum's primary objective is right now.

How does the SK plan to win?
How does a mafia that doesn't include Tar plan to win?
How does a mafia that DOES include Tar plan to win?

The answer to the first question: He doesn't. Its that simple. A serial killer that is neither Reck nor Tar is simply unable to win the game with the current situation.

Thats why Raivann is so obviously the Serial killer. Go back and look at his play through out this game. He never scum hunted very hard, and then, after the mass claim, he attacked Tar and then pretty much stopped playing the game. Why? Because as long as Tar is alive, Raivann can't even hope to play for a draw, with TWO people that are essentially NK immune.

Frankly, if I was in his position I would have flaked a long time ago and I find the fact that he even continues to post at all to be fairly admirable. I would also be extremely pissed at the MOD for putting me in an essentially unwinnable game. (This very sudtly makes me doubt Tar, by the way, just because I wonder if the MOD would actually screw over the SK that way before the game even began.)

So thats the first question. How about the second?

Well, they would be doing everything in their power to try and kill either Tar or the SK, especially if they thought that they were one and the same. A little thought about the implications of what end game scenario's with a living Tar and/or SK would look like should make that obvious. Thinking about this, I went back, and if you would notice, Pads and Dana have both pushed Tar suspicions today, while in Wickedest's iso 76 Wickedest objects to Reck saying Tar shouldn't be lynched today, while Zoraster primarily spent his time trying to discredit Tar by discussing Devestator's role Pm.

So ya.

Hows about the third?

Well, they would have a lot of freedom, so that is a question that is harder to untangle. Probably something closer to typical mafia strategy, but I wouldn't expect much bussing today, as a mislynch and a found SK is pretty much a win for them (I've been kinda hesitant to push the RaivannSK issue for this very reason).

So I would expect little bussing and lots of hunting for the Serial killer.

So ya. Right now I think Tar is town, Dana is scum, Raivann is the SK, and 2 of {Wickedest, Pads, Zoraster} are scum, and I am kinda in a rut to choose between those three.

[Socrates]

upon further review of Wickedest's play today, I really think he is town. Hes been by far the most active player after Reck/me/Tar and he did have a town read on Tar today and his attack on pads (even though I don't think the reasoning is too great) seemed genuine to me.

[xRECKONERx]

Let's end this.

Vote: danakillsu

I swear to god, Pads, if you just come in and hammer...

[Pads]

Nothing quite like a double mod abandoned game to make me not give a crap anymore. I also thought we had a hammer a few days back, but no one cares about/believes that, so let's just get into it.


@Wicked

(Yes, I realize the kills might have been randomized once a kill wasn't sent in, but the choice of targets indicates that they were not randomly chosen).

The kills didn't look random to me. Also, didn't you say Slicey wasn't SK because he hadn't been around?

I did, and here I'm acknowledging that some game setups/mods won't let a serial killer not kill.

The maximum possible size of Jupiter Mafia right now is four people. If there were more then it would be impossible for anybody else to win.

Incorrect. The maximum number of Jupiter Mafia, assuming the single mafia/SK theory, is three. Four scum automatically win in a eight player game, as per normal mafia rules. Normally I'd say this isn't a big deal, but since you're been peddling multiscum for a good portion of the game I'm inclined to think differently of it.

I think at the moment, hunting down the rest of Jupiter Mafia should be our main priority during the day at least until circumstances change.

Has there been some moment in which hunting scum was incorrectly selected as our priority?

Next, either Pads reads are inconsistent, or they change a lot, because in post 1 he says he likes xRx and is content with Cyberbob, but then in post 7 he votes Cyberbob, and in post 9 he says xRx may be a buddy. What happened?

Reading people, changing your mind, and reacting to new stimuli is what townies do. Scum don't do that, because they've already got a 'plan', so their 'changes of mind' tend to be more slow and well documented, so that no one questions their motives. When scum change their 'suspect', it's more of a decision to do so, rather than being convinced by something in the game.

And if you don't believe me, just look at Reckoner. He's the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie, and he's a damned tornado of voting. As I recall he was even happy to lynch you at the start of the day, and now he's calling you town. Zomg what happened!?!? Nothing happened. He changed his mind as he's seen new info, just like he's supposed to.

Pads seems to try to just shake it off. He also seems to feel the need to show he isn't worried about it. He does the same thing later here:

Pads is Jupiter Mafia BTW.

Hurray, that was easy!

Lazy scum hunting gets a lazy reply, plain and simple. When Kise did actually make a case on me later, I responded with a normal defense. I noticed you made no mention of that.

Another thing:

Empking, despite the contentless Swimmer vote, is likely not Exalt or MonkeyMan's scum buddy. If Exalt had the nards to defend self-destructing scumbuddy MonkeyMan, then there's no reason to think he'd feel forced to bus Empking for his (Empking's) play.

You say this, yet you were attacking me for my interactions with Exalt earlier. That seems odd to me.

What the heck are you talking about? Your interactions with Exalt consisted of him taking your machine gun questions seriously when no one else did. The fact that he also supported MonkeyMan is a strong indication that he supported any other scum buddy(ies) of his, which in turn is a strong indication that his support of you was because you were his buddy.

Zoraster - His vote is a 180 flip from yesterday, but he hasn't actually called muh scummy. Looks like testing the wagon to me, always good for town points in my book.

This is scummy considering Pads uses this against zoraster later in the game.

Of course. In hindsight, his action looks scummier than it did at the time. Do you really look at stuff that happened on Day 1 in the same light that you look at it now? If you do, it's because you're scum.

And the Tar vote is terrible. You and your scumteam know you can't kill Tar at night (I've already explained why I think Tar is almost certainly town), so you're trying to lynch him for whatever reason you can fabricate (No chance that a townie Doctor/Roleblocker would be 'highly interested' in protecting himself, eh?).

I think someone else mentioned it today, but Tar is also not the Serial Killer unless something immensely funky is going on, due to what looks like a blocked kill on Night 3 at the same time someone was brutally murdered.

Yet, later Pads brings up several reasons to suspect Tar as SK only a few posts later.

You continue to equate 'changing your mind' with 'scumminess'. I must then assume that you equate 'never changing your mind' with 'towniness'. And that's so ridiculous I don't even think I need to refute it.

Your attack on me is just about the textbook definiton of an OMGUS, fabricated case. And you are Exalt's buddy (Hey, look, something I haven't changed my mind about all game.)

The seemingly sudden willingness of several other people to lynch Wicked at the beginning of the day struck me as odd and gave me pause, but 'sudden willingness to wagon someone' seems to be be par for the course today, and I no longer think anything of it.



As unpopular of a sentiment as this might be (atleast with scumTar), I think Socrates' behavior today is highly indicative of him being town.

If we are at:

4 townies
1 SK
3 scum

...which I believe we are, the scum aren't out of the woods with a mislynch today. They need to survive the SK shot. And 'defending' (and I use the term loosely here) Raivann is not an action designed to endear one to the masses, which is what makes me think he's town speaking his mind. I really don't see him saying that unless he's town, or Raivann's buddy.

And, loathe as I am to admit it, I think he may be right about SK Raivann. Granted, that would be the move for Raivann's scumbuddy, too. But I still like my townSocrates read.

sure. Vanilla Townie. I assume you're scum?

er reckoner asked me that, I thought Socrates did. Ah well. I'm sorry I played this game so poorly, guys. The fault is mine more than anyone else's. Just didn't devote the time necessary.

Hey that looks like a lynched town. Except that...

It was not lynch, and I remain not scum and not SK. I'm more than happy to go with a dan lynch over a me lynch.

Zoraster knew it was not the lynch. And the current wagon on Dana seems to half be because the former wagon's target chose any wagon other than his own.

At L-1, he claimed vanilla townie, apologized for his play, and ... did no scum hunting? No scum list, nothing?


I'm good for a Wicked wagon, obviously, but for whatever reason (possibly my absence) Wicked seems to be soaring high in the polls. Let me know when you guys are ready to lynch Exalt's obvbuddy.

As for Dana and Zoraster, based on Wicked's behavior during the two wagons, I'm inclined to believe exactly one of them is his buddy. He asked for people to remove votes from Zoraster, but once the Dana wagon got going, he says he's more in favor of a Zoraster lynch than a Dana lynch.

Lets' see if he really is.

vote: Zoraster

[SpyreX]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 5

danakillsu

- 4 - zoraster, Socrates, Raivann, xRECKONERx - (L-1)

Raivann

- 1 - Tarhalindur - (L-4)

Tarhalindur

- 1 - danakillsu - (L-4)

zoraster

- 1 - Pads - (L-4)

Players not voting: Wickedestjr

[xRECKONERx]

Deadline is tomorrow. SOMEONE HAMMER.

[Socrates]

Well, Pads and Dana are scum buddies. Pads' attitude toward Wickedest makes me think the third buddy is Zoraster.

[Wickedestjr]

It looks like this is the lynch for today even if I'm not the one that hammers:

Vote: dana

.

[Wickedestjr]

Also, I will have limited access the next few days.

[SpyreX]

Danakillsu,

Vanilla Town

, has been lynched

Night Deadline: 72 hours from this post.

[xRECKONERx]

Are you freaking joking.

[xRECKONERx]

Sooo we can night talk. Game isn't over. Which means it wasn't lylo. Thoughts?

[SpyreX]

Please refrain from night talk. I am unable to close the thread.

[xRECKONERx]

Ah okay. Sorry mod.