open 914: the coalition (this is completed)

[Tsawwassen]

I still think Moros can be scum but I think this page makes me think it isn't.

Want to elaborate on this?

Maybe you can convince me!

[Moros]

It's like pretty annoying to be declared mafia purely on a preflip assoc with experience.

this is the third time that you've used language that frames my points in an inaccurate way that allows you to be dismissive of them, which is i think enough reason for me to want to vote you on its own. you may consider the vote to be purely for that reason instead if you find that one to be less annoying.

Preflip associations are fundamentally bad approach to mafia. But I can't resolve 3 MD threads of discussion convincing you of that.
I also don't want to like, go deep on antiassociatives with experience's slot because it can get wifomy. It's better to just try to express my alignment individually and nudge you in some sort of way to table the full team tinfoils.

But also annoyed is an emotion you made me feel

this is still tangential at best. my read on you is not based on preflips.

[Moros]

is my manner of speaking or manner of thinking difficult to parse in general? it seems like people keep missing the point of things that i say and if that is universal then i should be more hesitant to ascribe ill intentions to it.

[Moros]

the reads build on each other but i believe the structure is sound if you construct it on a foundation of scum experience. i think it's true though that building the house before checking if the foundation is there or not is unwise.

You used scum!exp as the basis to assert scum!May. Yet you used town!exp as the basis to assert implosion can't be partner with him because he TMI'd his read.

There are two polarizing hypothesis there.

i didn't do either of those things. i said if experience is scum, then may fits as a possible partner. and i said if implosion is scum, experience is more likely town than scum. no conclusions can be made as a result of these statements because we don't know if the ifs are true. but i think that pulling together these if-thens helps me get closer to an overall understanding.

[Moros]

i then explained what i thought about experience's alignment because that is relevant to both of the prior statements.

[Tsawwassen]

:shrug:

Ok... Your logic was impeccable

It's not really strong enough to sway me on implosion though

[Moros]

it wasn't meant to sway i was just sharing things that i was thinking about.

[Tsawwassen]

Keep'em coming!!

[implosion]

Why does 1414 use the word frankly? Is it to rebut a presumption you would lie about your opinion of experience or to condescend to people who disagree with you

honestly, because it is how i feel but i am also self-aware that it's the convenient stance for me to have at this moment. like, i'm very self-aware that some of my stances (i.e. that tired person was a good lim late yesterday when i had been thinking they were town a bit earlier) have tracked what is convenient for me to think. Probably the reason for this in practice is just that i'm really persuadable in this game because i haven't really felt that good about any of my stances except black since like, umlaut era. also i was kind of contrite because i felt like i should have posted earlier yesterday but got distracted

I still think Moros can be scum but I think this page makes me think it isn't.

Want to elaborate on this?

Maybe you can convince me!

what exactly can i convince you of? my position that moros might be but is probably not scum? because that doesn't sound like something i particularly care about anyone believing or not believing at this juncture

[implosion]

So I think experience is town. Or at least I think experience's play is like, somewhat unlikely to be actively indicative of scum. i wouldn't think that they were town in the absence of Umlaut's posting. I might think they were scummy even but I think a big part of me still just doesn't really think worst or tsawwassen are all that townish which i guess fmpov is like saying that the coalition wasn't a bad coalition because it at least forces me to re-evaluate on them. I don't really know how people at large feel about worst right now but I talked a lot about them yesterday and like, idk why exactly they'd be faking this wack ass lack of any sustained thought process or opinion in this game as scum but it just does not read as town to me. i do think tsawwassen is town largely because i think duck is scummier so no real need to litigate there.

experience's play is a nothingburger.

i don't think experience is town because he was able to find reads easily and quickly when he needed to form a coalition but has lost that now. i think when he needed to push a coalition with his partner, he did that, but now he doesn't know what to do.

I'd maybe need to actually meta them to be confident on this but experience's play reads to me like someone who is just not used to playing this kind of mafia where there is no hard info. Like, experience as scum does not have a particular reason to not form reads right now. Even if experience was scum and genuinely did not know what to do, they would have a scumbuddy that could coach them. They would know that as scum in their position they're supposed to give stances. There's no way that experience is like, deciding to give 0 stances because they think it's optimal play as scum or something like that, they're doing it, i can only guess because they're not exactly explaining themself, because they feel out of their depth (as either alignment) or they are genuinely having trouble picking up reads in the absence of hard info (as town) or something like that.

[implosion]

i also do think moros is right that i'd kill tsawwassen over darby here as scum. like tsawwassen has shown 0 interest in changing their mind on me since like mid coalition phase whenever they started souring on me.

Anyway. Moros's arc on me is like, kind of very impressive if it is scum. It's not that it would be bad play, it would be really good scum play to like, hard defend me and then if/when I get limmed they get an easy pivot to may and if/when may gets limmed (assuming may is town) then they still don't necessarily look bad. The associative stuff is like, not necessarily the kind of argument i'd expect scum to make in the situation? not for any particularly strong reason.

[implosion]

oh I voted implosion because I think his scum wincon is to embrace absurdity and hope this fairly volatile town implodes around him

duck's stance evolution now just feels to me like scum who is now acknowledging that ultimately they might have to step in and be the wincon

like if it were duck + may then duck really can't afford to just hard push me today because that would wind up looking really bad later. but duck would definitely have been able to do what they did to me yesterday when there was more room in the coalition. even if it's duck + moros or black, then this also makes sense as scum play because this sort of aloofness has a lot of utility in that duck can suss out tomorrow if they're supposed to go for the win that day or if they're supposed to pivot into a bus

basically the tenor of duck's play has just a massive amount of utility for scum in his position

[implosion]

A component of this is also that worst is absolutely a competent enough scum player to go that angle and to long-term fake being so uncommitted to stances. i think a lot of players would have trouble with that maybe (if experience *is* scum then i guess this is what's happening lmao) and it is like, possible for worst to have this trajectory as town maybe, i'm sure it's possible but it seems very clear to me that this

is

what worsts play would look like here if worst is scum or at the very least it is a very very good candidate for what it would look like

[implosion]

@Tsawwassen: you say you think it's me + experience. How do you feel about the arguments that that specifically is not the scumteam? I've mentioned earlier in thread that I think they're fairly compelling, in particular that it's dramatically unlikely that I specifically would play my read toward my scumbuddy in this setup the way that I played my read toward Umlaut early on.

Is your read of me + experience based on (1) thinking both of us are scummy individually, (2) perceived associations between us, or (3) PoE off townreading everyone else? Obviously it can be more than one but i'd like to know which and in what proportion if multiple.

If you are wrong on us being the scumteam, which of us do you think you'd more likely be wrong on/what would your next worldview be?

[implosion]

Lastly, turning my attention toward May. This is lastly because I would, I think, still be townreading may if not for the setup we're in. So it's a lot harder to analyze content. But now that I am being dragged through this by the setup and being forced to see the actions of someone on coalition as scummy, there is stuff I can see there.


Her play is all like, technically competent, whether she's town or scum. Her reads have evolved, yada yada. Honestly her content on page 57 like, I can make arguments as to why it's scum indicative but i can't really make them in good faith because I do think that they're posts she makes as town sometimes. Like 1406 is a good rhetorical tactic as scum because it's taking a perceived flaw with the argument and hammering at it while avoiding having to talk about like, substantive reasons why may might be town or scum. But also it's believable that May got annoyed at that post and made this response. Her diatribe against my 1414 is maybe something that I do genuinely think she does less often as town than as scum, the scum utility is obvious in that she wants to convince people I'm scum and also maybe that she wants to look invested in the read so that she doesn't look like she's scum looking at the future or w/e. But as town I sort of doubt she'd feel so strongly about that post. I think there's a good chance she'd at least have second thoughts of like, if that post reads as openly me trying to suss out where i'm supposed to place my vote as scum, that why would i as scum be so blatant about that. Maybe i'm biased because i do think i wouldn't be so blatant about it if i were scum. But it's like, as a line of posts, i think a very solid reading of 1415-1421 is that May is scum who sees me as the right place for her to park and that she doesn't really see any value in making her read of me nuanced anymore.

VOTE: May

[experience]

experience, it seems like you had more reads and opinions when you first joined than you do now.

i see.
i'm leaning towards you/black being town which is making me doubt my initial trs.
as in i'm no longer sure of ducky/may/implo being all town.

[experience]

more so for implo/may

[Black]

experience, it seems like you had more reads and opinions when you first joined than you do now.

i see.
i'm leaning towards you/black being town which is making me doubt my initial trs.
as in i'm no longer sure of ducky/may/implo being all town.

Why do you think we are town

[the worst]

UNVOTE:

Wasn't expecting this to get to e-1 so fast

is this a bad thing? why are you even unvoting here

[the worst]

is my manner of speaking or manner of thinking difficult to parse in general? it seems like people keep missing the point of things that i say and if that is universal then i should be more hesitant to ascribe ill intentions to it.

I find you clear and have found you clear all game but I think your voice is becoming clearer (or I'm getting better at hearing it)

I kinda wonder if part of you not being heard is that thing where scum miss a certain zeitgeist kinda thing but I haven't decided if it's AI or if this thread is just a bit awkward

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

Areum Yang - Dream of Big Fish, 2024 - Acrylic, oil, oil pastel, graphite, and paper collage on canvas

vote count 2.1 !

May (2):

Moros, implosion,

implosion (2):

Tsawwassen, May,

not voting (3):

the worst, experience, Black

with 7 alive, it took 4 to choose someone to choose. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-05-28 13:54:29).

moderateur notes

• u.u

[Black]

UNVOTE:

Wasn't expecting this to get to e-1 so fast

is this a bad thing? why are you even unvoting here

I just don't want to fade anyone yet. We have 8 days

[May]

I see value in using lots of deadline but I feel like there's a lot of videotape to rewind to get to a scumread on you or Moros relative to implosion

[May]

implosion holding onto an umlaut townread off of 4 posts all the way to this phase is like when Pip meets a girl when he is 11 in great expectations and falls in love with her and then doesn't see her again for 15 years until he is 26 and sees her again and is still in love with her despite presumably seeing numerous other women as a hormonal teenager

[Moros]

is Pip aligned with the town or with the mafia?