In post 1327, mastin2 wrote:Really. The case against me boils down to:
"You're scum!" Why?
"You are. That's why!" Except, I'm not, and this is why I'm not. *long list of reasons*
"I don't have to answer that, because you're scum!" Really, now? Then what about the innocent on me?
"Godfather!" To counter a one-shot role?!?
"Axxle's your scumbuddy!" So why are you voting me, when your whole case relies on Axxle being scum?
"Because you're confirmed scum!"
Why
am I confirmed scum?
"Because your claim is bullshit!"
What
in my claim is bullshit?
"It's bullshit." Again, why?
"Because you're scum, that's why!"
This is not at all an inaccurate description of the case against me.
I still stand by this. The case on me was entirely subjective and illogical. I hammered in point after point after point, to be ignored by everyone.
Okay, so fitz did try to counter a few of my points, but his efforts weren't very convincing.
The case on me being town was as objective as can be, and despite UN's claims to the contrary, I am
not
that
airtight a scum player. I can't fakeclaim worth a damn.
And the cases I had started weren't even addressed. Fitz just pushed them away for there not having been a started Kimor case, but nobody looked at what I DID have. It was looking at my own dang case which was helping me reconvince myself in my scumreads. As I said, had the game not been over when I returned from the weekend, my reads woulda been solidified, at least when it came to UN and probably fitz. (Kimor going after Axxle was actually one of the smartest moves the scumteam could have done, 'cause had it not been for derp-BBM-voting, the scum couldn't hammer me. And it made a
lot
more sense to go after Axxle than me.)
One weekend can make all the difference between victory and defeat. I was gaining my conviction back over the weekend. I was reconvincing myself that I hadn't gone wrong in calling out the scumteam that I had, that it WAS correct. And had I done so, I would have re-opened my case (I still have that tab open where I was working on it), and hammered in my offense. (My defense was about as rock-solid as I could get.) I would have hammered in all the interactions, all the things Slandaar and Trollie were saying, all things pointing to AP's hide-behind-UN. I would have pointed out their staying on me rather than switching to Axxle more than I already had. (Though that said, UN not switching was smart, since it was one of the main things making me hesitate on calling Axxle town. Ultimately, I would have; see also, how I was reconvincing myself I wasn't wrong and how Axxle had no scum motive for his claim.) How they were desperate to force the lynch through on me.
I have nobody to blame but myself that it took me that long, that by the time I had re-gathered myself, it was too late, though ultimately, with BBM refusing to play the game, and Cooldog not even remotely listening to what I was saying, it almost certainly wouldn't have made a difference.
A strong offense does no good if the offense is altogether ignored. I'd already made the more concise points for why they were scum, and those weren't enough; I had already made the concise points for why I wasn't scum, and that wasn't enough, so the strong offense wouldn't have done much, considering how little the strong defense did.
This game
is
proof of why my belief in NK-analysis is justified, though. When I was a newb, the scum couldn't get away with killing the people largest suspicious of them. Now, as this game proves, they most certainly can. I was right in almost every single point I was making on d3.
All-in-all, I don't really think I coulda done much better than I did. The FP mislynch, while my fault, helped steer me in the right direction. AP's play during the second half of d2 along with Kimor's play at the same time got me where I needed to be, getting RM out of my scumlist, getting AP out of my scumlist, and putting in their place the (correct!) Kimor-UN scumteam. With fitz in both. (And Axxle, since Axxle played a lot like I'd expect scum to, and he had plenty of interactions with the other three. It wasn't 'til d3 that I had any reason to think him town.)
So really, it was AP who I owed the most to. He turned me from thinking him and RM to be scum, into where I needed to go. It's just that it wasn't enough, because I didn't drive it hard enough. Guess that's my largest mistake this game: I never went hard enough. I pushed, and I pushed hard, but I didn't push as much as I needed to push. All the scum were off the d1 lynch; I felt it, and I needed to push that. All the scum were ON the d2 lynch; I knew it, and that lynch was
horrendously
scumdriven, but I didn't push it hard enough. The push on d3 was horribly scumdriven, yet I didn't hammer that home hard enough. I can't really say, though, that if I were to play this game again, I'd do so differently.
In
this
game, me not having conviction was a weakness for the latter half. However, the
first
half of the game is proof of why having conviction isn't always a good idea, since my absolute belief in FP got an all-town mislynch d1, and my absolute belief in AP-RM could have easily cost the town the game. Hence, why I don't think I'd do this game much differently than I did.
Guess this just means that I need to change my approach. Be willing to change early-on and solidify myself later-on, rather than solidifying myself early-on only to doubt myself later-on. So maybe that's what I'd have done differently. It's a good learning exercise, though, and I've got a few MD posts to make about this game.
AP wrote:My crumbs were very clear. Its actually unreal that Axxles was the only one pushing them.
Like I said above--I was getting more and more convinced that you did hide behind UN, but like it or not, it
was
possible you hid elsewhere. Your posting over the course of d2 was, after all, quite...shall we say...not solidified. Near the end, it was beginning to get solid, but that's one of the reasons why the RM mislynch was bad: because it cut off discussion, preventing you from having further solidified them. It was
possible
you hid behind Axxle, but I was beginning to rule that out. It was
possible
you hid behind Trollie, but I didn't think you did. It was
possible
you hid behind Kimor, and this was the most likely alternative to the
probability
that you hid behind UN. I was getting more and more convinced of said probability, but like it or not, it was just that--a very strong probability, not a certainty.
That said, you're right. I shoulda pushed it harder, myself. And because I was becoming more and more certain of it, I should have made that explicit, and it's my fault for having failed to do so.
