New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[MrZepher]

Ugh I guess that's true.
I forget what brought me to think that...

This game is hurting my brain...

[nhammen]

These were written over a loooong period of time. At some times I was writing it as though considering them to be scum first while planning to look back later for absurdities, and at others I was analysing as I went. Didn't reread Day 5, as I figure that information is all fresh.

General Pine data (since he is in 3 of the pairings, these apply to all 3):
First note, if Pine is scum, then he bussed both Amor and DK (after they both came under suspicion). And bussed DK HARD with a counterclaim. This has an implication: he has no qualms about bussing buddies. So if he had a buddy that came under suspicion, we should expect to see Pine bussing or distancing if he is scum.
Pine iso #61 Pine asks to be lynched to reduce WIFOM. Is this in itself WIFOM? Seems odd.
Pine iso #78 Pine says that he never caught KoC as cop. Why point it out, unless he wants people to know, I could neeevver have been the one to do this kill wink wink.
Pine iso #100 Without the last line, this would be a good defence. With the last line, he is playing to his meta.

An oddity: Zeph iso #48 Could there be something there? Didn't know which pairing to put this under.

Zepher's claimstravaganza:
Zeph iso #96 VT claim
Zeph iso #100 JOAT claim
Zeph iso #101 3 actions: 2 of which were no actions
Zeph iso #111 only 2 actions. It was another gambit.

Pine/Uite:
Early Pine is everywhere, and early Uite is nowhere. Not easy to read for connections.
Uite iso #4 Uite considered Pine to be town early on day 1. Does not indicate ,uch at this point.
Uite iso #5 Uite had the first real DK vote, when silver was the prime wagon and Amor was the secondary. So scum Uite bussed DK when there are no votes on DK, and there is a good target for scum to go after, and someone else that could be good for bussing. Could be distancing from a buddy that looks like he would go down D2, but unlikely. Seems scum would either be pushing a counterwagon or bussing at this point.
Pine iso #27, #29, and [urlhttp://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p ... 5#p3050845]#36[/url] Pine has arguments for both Mastin/silver and sub/silver 1 for 1s, which sounds like something scum would do to try to get townies lynched. However, the arguments concerning Mastin seem to come from a town perspective. Additionally, when both Mastin and sub turned up town, Pine did NOT push on these 1 for 1s like scum would have.

Pine iso #62

Pine claims to have targeted Uite on Night 1. Would scum Pine claim to have blocked a buddy on N1? Distancing?
Pine iso #84 and #85 Then he tries to push a lynch on Uite. At a time when there are no votes on Uite other than Pine. This is in fact the first vote on Uite in this entire game, even though Uite has not been even close to active. It is a nice time to distance. But I don't see much coming the other way at this point. In fact, I don't see anything from Uite yet, other than an early attack against DK.
Pine iso #96 Pine jumps eagerly onto Zepher's Mastin as SK theory. A little too eagerly. Scum love to have an excuse to go SK hunting. Note that Pine takes this and runs with it like crazy.
Pine iso #108 Pine says "OK, I'm done distancing now."
Pine iso #118 Hey, Uite's all smart and stuff, and I have nothing against him wink wink. Note that from here, neither Pine nor Uite mention each other for TWO WEEKS even after discounting the days that were Night.
Pine iso #187 A small note that Uite is still town.
Uite iso #30 Hi guys! I know that the last time I mentioned Pine was almost a month ago, but now I think he is scum because everyone else thinks so! I'm also gonna set up a chain lynch so I can get a townie lynched after bussing, ok y'all.
After this, Pine has to believe that Uite is town from either alignment, so not much can be said here. Note that they have very rarely mentioned each other. There are a few instances when their mentions make no sense as scum, but for the most part it is consistent.

Pine/Zepher:
Pine iso #27, #29, and [urlhttp://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p ... 5#p3050845]#36[/url] Pine has arguments for both Mastin/silver and sub/silver 1 for 1s, which sounds like something scum would do to try to get townies lynched. However, the arguments concerning Mastin seem to come from a town perspective. Additionally, when both Mastin and sub turned up town, Pine did NOT push on these 1 for 1s like scum would have.
Zeph iso #27 Zepher never really mentioned Pine on Day 1. In fact a CTRL-F of Zepher's iso shows that the only D1 references to Pine are some vote counts and one post mentioning how Amor had already commented on Pine appearing scummy. That's it. For all of D1. And then the first mention of Pine is saying hey this counterclaim could be taken either way.
Zeph iso #30 Has Pine claimed already? Seriously, when you just commented on the claim? Either this is really dumb town, or scum playing dumb. Not sure if a scumbuddy would do this.
Zeph iso #32 "DK claimed Surye and Pine to be scum with him and Amor. Amor was obviously going to be on that list, and since Surye has since then flipped town, I wouldn't doubt Pine being town either."
Zeph iso #34 Zepher points out where Pine could be scum, when nobody is going after Pine. Distancing?
Pine iso #91 Pine's first mention of Zepher ALL GAME LONG occurs on Day 3. Would Pine point out that a scummate had had no real pressure all game?
Zeph iso #40 Zepher brings up the infamous Mastin is third party theory. This has scum hallmarks all over it.
Pine iso #96 Pine jumps eagerly onto Zepher's Mastin as SK theory. Was this planned out to put suspicion on to mastin? Or did they both just happen to honestly believe this? Note: scum love to have an excuse to go SK hunting. Also note: Pine takes this and runs with it like crazy.
Zeph iso #42 Zepher still "pursuing" Pine, even though nobody is joining him. Also note the mention of mastin.
Pine iso #109 An excuse to chainsaw for a buddy?
Zeph iso #54 Still pursuing Pine. Weakly. Looks a lot like distancing at this point.
Pine iso #129 This is a weird discussion for scumbuddies to be having... Wouldn't a scumbuddy just ignore this? Could be very weak distancing. Whatever it is, it is a very very soft accusation. Extremely soft.
Zeph iso #69 Soft defence of Pine when he finally comes under pressure? What happened to him being your top suspect? You know, when nobody else was attacking him. Suddenly others go after him, and you are like no, he was just being dumb. This looks bad.
Pine iso #158, #160, and #161 Attacking Zepher, when nobody else is. That part of it looks like distancing. But the way it was done... seems kind of a weird way to attack a buddy. Also, kinda late game for distancing. Seems odd from this perspective. From here, he continues to bus Zepher, when it really isn't necessary. Most of the other play from these two looks like it could come from buddies, but the way this push was made is odd.
Pine iso #193 Votes for Zepher after Zepher's JOAT claim. Honestly doesn't like a bad claim? Or bussing a buddy? (or both? lol)
Pine iso #200 Pine tells Toon to vig Zepher if NS flips town, which Pine would know NS would flip as in this situation. What? Wait. If Pine and Zepher are scum together, they could have RBed Toon again, and then claimed to have blocked Zepher! I see. Clever.

Pine/silver:
Pine iso #20 Meta case on silver early in the game. This is actually a good way to distance, because its hard to give too many details on a null argument, but it still appears genuine, so as to fool everyone else.
Pine iso #21, #22, and #23 More attacks on silver. That could be many things at this point. Silver took the attacks from Pine calmly.

Pine iso #27, #29, and #36

Pine has arguments for both Mastin/silver and sub/silver 1 for 1s, which is NOT something scum would do with a buddy. This is the opposite of intelligent scum tactics. It practically confirms two townies if the buddy gets lynched and if the town players were to flip town, then you are inclined to lynch the other end of the one for one. Just this right here blows Pine/silver right out of the water.
silver iso #48 Isn't mentioning someone as one of a few slight suspicions considered a buddy tell? But in light of the above, its a bit of a stretch.
silver iso #59 Oh, and pine is a suspect too.
silver iso #64 Amor: "overall read: town... what's the case on him again?"
Pine iso #77 silver is still scum, but now I'm removing the 1 for 1 I thought of earlier. Now, if mastin dies, I have an excuse not to lynch silver.
Pine iso #78 Pine is concerned with the silver town implies Pine scum statement from mastin. Note, town has reason to be concerned, and scum has reason to be concerned if silver is town, but if both are town, there is no reason to be concerned. Still more holes in the Pine/silver theory.
Pine iso #81 This could be Pine being paranoid that his entire team has been caught... but that's a stretch
silver iso #71 Aaaand silver self destructs. For silver to be scum, this has to be a WIFOM gambit. I can see this possibility.
Pine iso #85, #89, and #91 Pine repeatedly (very repeatedly) says Silver's self destructive attitude can't be scum. Well, it's either honest, or they are gambiting HARD. Note that sub has already flipped. At this point, if Pine wanted to bus, he could follow up on those supposed one for ones, but instead he keeps up his townread.
Pine iso #96 Pine jumps eagerly onto Zepher's Mastin as SK theory. A little too eagerly. Scum love to have an excuse to go SK hunting. Note that Pine takes this and runs with it like crazy.
Pine iso #111 Note that if they are gambiting, it gives a good excuse to chainsaw for a buddy.
Pine iso #114 This could be asking a scumbuddy to stop self-destructing...
Pine iso #125 Some kind of argument here. Could be some form of coaching without looking like it, but whatever it is, Pine is trying to improve silver's play.
silver iso #93 and #95 silver votes for Pine when Pine comes under attack, and then drops the vote when it looks like others will drop it too. This looks pretty bad, from this viewpoint.
silver iso #105 Very awkward argument. Again, Pine is arguing without attacking, but this time silver attacks lightly.
silver iso #112 An argument that culminates in a faulty vote on Pine. For this to be scum v scum, this would need to be staged. Not a chance.

Zepher/silver:
Zeph iso #8 Zepher says silver is ridiculous town, but maybe I'm wrong...
Zeph iso #15 Zepher says silver is being pushed by scum, but it's still hard to understand what silver is saying.
Zeph iso #16 "Also with the Silver wiggling room thing, that was my roundabout way of saying I'm not really sure on my read.
I want to think Silver is town, yes, but there are doubts. Hence why there's room for that to change."
Zeph iso #18 OK, the silver and sub wagons are definitely dumb! (after both players have been confirmed by a role)
silver iso #64 Amor: "overall read: town... what's the case on him again?"
Zeph iso #27 Zepher says that this counterclaim could be taken either way. Wanting to see if people are cool with piling on a town PR?
Zeph iso #32 "I still want to think that Silver is town. I'd have to see play outside of the whole sub vs. silver thing."
silver iso #71 Aaaand silver self destructs. For silver to be scum, this has to be a WIFOM gambit. I can see this possibility.
Zeph iso #34 "it's VERY difficult for scum to manufacture emotion laced post like Silver's. This is in no way a confirmation for me that he's town" This is more solid of an attitude than earlier, but he still insists on leaving an out.
Zeph iso #40 Zepher brings up the infamous Mastin is third party theory. This has scum hallmarks all over it.
Zeph iso #54 Zepher still "not tempted to lynch Silver." Whatever that means.
silver iso #98 silver's first real mention of Zepher occus on DAY 4! F-ing day 4! Only 1 previous mention and that was essentially "I'm glad Zepher will be playing better." That's it. Try isoing and CTRL-F. It's nuts.
silver iso #107 silver puts Zepher right at the middle of his list.
silver iso #122 silver points out the flaws in Zepher's claim. Could be that he thought he would need to bus because of the inconsistent claim.
silver iso #124 "Crap I've gotta bus!"

Conclusion:
Pine/Zepher looks likely, since they were both ignoring each other D1, and then started weak attacks on each other. Until Pine came under pressure and Zeph started soft defending him.
Zepher/silver looks likely, since Zepher waffled on silver for a while, and silver ignored Zepher until DAY 4. Not sure which of these two is higher.
Pine/Uite is possible, but not quite as likely as the two pairs above.
Pine/silver has no chance in hell. Plain and simple. Other than silver iso #93 and #95, all of the evidence for this pairing is a stretch.

Gotta go, it is 9PM. Bye.

[silverbullet999]

Deadline is in (expired on 2011-07-12 00:00:00)

Uite and nham no need to vote yet... but your feelings and questions on things would be really nice.

[nhammen]

Well, I believe that Pine/silver is practically impossible. So that leaves 3 possibilities: Pine/Uite, Pine/Zepher, and Zepher/silver. Thus, if Pine flips scum, then silver is conf town, and if Zepher flips scum, then Uite is conf town. I will not support a lynch on anybody other than Pine or Zepher, because the possibilities I have shown mean that these two are strictly more likely to be scum than others. Note, if it is Pine/Zepher, this logic guarantees a scum lynch. Thus, the choice between Zepher and Pine depends on two things: whether I believe Pine/Uite or Zepher/silver is more likely, and whether I believe that Pine or Zepher would have a Power Role that can be damaging in scum hands. Again, if it is Pine/Zepher, then all other players were telling the truth about being VT. Thus any scum PRs in this case are ineffective. So, if it is Pine/Uite, could Pine's scum PR (probably RB) have any effect on anything, and if it is Zepher/silver, could Zepher have a scum PR that negates Pine's RB? I find these possibilities of scum PRs unlikely (Pine's RB could only have any effect as scum if a town player lied about their role, and Zepher would have to have some sort of unstoppable kill, which is possible, but it is pure speculation). Thus, the problem reduces to a determination of the likelihood of the two pairs mentioned above: Pine/Uite or Zepher/silver. Which depends not only on the likelihood of the pairings, but the scumminess of the players involved. As a pairing, Zepher/silver looks more likely to be scum, but individually, Pine looks more likely to be scum. I do not want to vote yet, because I want to hear what other players think of my ideas before I make any decision.

[silverbullet999]

I basically have been saying what you just said -_-.

I'm a little saddened you really think that me going switching to zepher was really some sort of bus and that you didn't find two are three posts in a row all voting for ns suspicious (simply the quick growth of the ns wagon) at all suspicious.

Simply put, Pine has been playing the idiot card since early on, blocking people he shouldn't have blocked. He's done this consistently. I'd suggest you go with individually or see if my individual scumminess and zepher's are greater than pine's. You also shouldn't ignore the possibility that it's once again another bus, Ala Pine and Zeph are both scum bussing eachother. This is not a scenario I'd like to test though (ala go with what I know for fact, ala Pine).

[MrZepher]

I wish I had valuable input but I don't.

I've really said all I feel I can adequately say on my own;
If ya'll have questions I'd be more than happy to answer them.

[quadz08]

Votes Just Wanna Get Cast

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

silverbullet999 (0) –
nhammen (0) –
Pine (2) – silverbullet999, MrZepher
MrZepher (1) – Pine
Uite (0) -

Not Voting (2) – Nhammen, Uite,

Deadline is in (expired on 2011-07-12 00:00:00)

Please post, everyone. This game is very stagnant right now.

[Uite]

For me, there's really only two possibilities, and one of those seems more and more likely.

[silverbullet999]

For me, there's really only two possibilities, and one of those seems more and more likely.

Detail tends to win more favor... we are (supposedly) at lylo and your pulling this, why?

[Pine]

Just got off V/LA. In the car coming home now, only skimmed, but have to respond to Silver's last..."supposedly" in LyLo? For us NOT to be in LyLo AND me as the last scum, as you would suggest, there must have been a horribly-underpowered scum team of three, both of whom I promptly and effectively bussed into oblivion, despite my well-known despisement of bussing, and then making AND ADMITTING to unpopular and risky blocking decisions.

No. We're in LyLo, because four starting scum are all that makes sense. Your flailing and desperation become more and more obvious as we go.

[silverbullet999]

The size of the scum team should never be certain pine... unless you are part of said team...

Do expand though what the motivation is or objective of me adding supposedly is as a scum.

[Pine]

Seriously?

To insert the idea that we might be able to afford a mislynch. Hell, if we could afford a mislynch, I'd self-hammer in order to prove you and Zepher as the final scum, and produce a Town win.

But we can't afford a mislynch.

Three scum is entirely too small when stacked against the Town power of a Roleblocker, Vig, 1-Shot BP, and THREE Masons. Five would not only be overpowered against our starting number, but if there were three remaining they'd already have won. No, it's 2v3, and the fact that you're pushing doubt into that when the

safest

ONLY safe course is to assume we're in LyLo is a ludicrous scumslip.

If you people aren't prepared to lynch Zepher, I'm more than willing to settle for his buddy.

Unvote
Vote: Silver

[Uite]

Sure, I'll join you.

VOTE: silverbullet999

[silverbullet999]

Seriously?

To insert the idea that we might be able to afford a mislynch. Hell, if we could afford a mislynch, I'd self-hammer in order to prove you and Zepher as the final scum, and produce a Town win.

But we can't afford a mislynch.

Three scum is entirely too small when stacked against the Town power of a Roleblocker, Vig, 1-Shot BP, and THREE Masons. Five would not only be overpowered against our starting number, but if there were three remaining they'd already have won. No, it's 2v3, and the fact that you're pushing doubt into that when the

safest

ONLY safe course is to assume we're in LyLo is a ludicrous scumslip.

If you people aren't prepared to lynch Zepher, I'm more than willing to settle for his buddy.

Unvote
Vote: Silver

So a post with me being pissed at uite for not giving details when we are getting close to deadline and stating that we are more than likely at lylo, with a slight possibility that we aren't because nothing is certain (unless you are mod) is really me... telling uite or nham to be reckless and a scumslip? The most ironic thing here is that you are now even switching your own words.

We're in LyLo, because four starting scum are all that makes sense.

ONLY safe course is to

assume

we're in LyLo

Your slipping up m8 and misrepping badly.

P-EDIT
Well now I'm certain n-ham is town and the teams is pine and uite for several reasons.

Uite completely ignores giving any and all explanation to his vote as well as completely ignoring me asking for an explanation about his post. Uite literally goes from this

Pine is scum. It's completely open and shut at this point. As for the buddy, nhammen is definitely the most likely candidate.

(Early Day Bussing)

To this

Sure, I'll join you.

VOTE: silverbullet999

This is literally the biggest scum slip one can possibly make. His attitude has made a complete 180 during the course of this day with no explanation. He was never tempted to vote Pine and Pine went right away to clear Uite. Townies should be completely open in these last days. You have done that, I have done that, Pine has feigned that, Zeph has done that, Uite is the only one who has barely posted reasons for his actions, or really posted much at all. This should be completely clear nham.

This is all up to you now nham.

A few more key things.

Pine didn't realize initially that if he were a townie and if there were two mafia (when neither you nor Uite hammered) that the scum team would have to be me and zeph. He admits this himself and it should be the first thing any actual townie realizes.

Again Uite lacks any explanation for his actions.

Another thing to remember as well is that Pine will be lynched if a lynch vote isn't actually cast and as long as the votes on him don't move. This may have given uite the incentive to try to join Pine in a final stand.

[Pine]

I would like to point out that the above post does not contain the panic and frantic requests to unvote that a Townie about to lose would contain. Instead, it is composed of desperate last-minute flailings and attempts to besmirch BOTH of the people now voting for him.

Caught scum is caught.

Please make sure to take down Zepherscum on D6 if I am NKed.

That is all.

[Pine]

Wait, never mind! With only one scum left, I can roleblock Zepher again and prevent the nightkill!

Town super-win!

[silverbullet999]

^More slips of a scum roleblocker forgetting he's supposed to be a town roleblocker^

I would like to point out that the above post does not contain the panic and frantic requests to unvote that a Townie about to lose would contain.

Why would I at all be panicking and requesting the scum team to unvote me? Again you are forgetting I'm a townie. One of two things will occur right now when nham logs in assuming 2 scum.
A. Nham quickhammers me and wins for scum which would be you and him. I've had a pretty good feeling on nham so I feel that this won't happen, and I've been getting a worse and worse feeling about Uite as this day progressed.
B. Nham posts and doesn't hammer where upon which we debate some more or answer questions and what not and Nham is fully cleared as definite town.
C. Nham posts and quickhammers you, he couldn't be scum doing that else he'd have done it a long time ago and thus this game is more or less in the bag for us townies since Uite has revealed himself to be scum.

There's this last one that's highly unlikely and I don't think will occur but
D. Zeph quickhammers me and this was all an elaborate bus on both your parts and again a scum win occurs.

My bet is B happens.

[Pine]

Slips? What are you, high?

With you gone, there is one Mafia member left, and we know exactly who it is. I roleblock him, and he's unable to perform the NK. Town wins by a wider-than-anticipated margin of 3 survivors.

[silverbullet999]

Pine if you were at all a townie roleblocker you would have realized that you could block zeph as soon as you started typing oh if I die take down zepher. You know in actuality that if you get my lynch the game ends and your scum team wins so you didn't think carefully enough about the actual possibilities of the day after until after you posted said scenario.

also Uite literally vanishes once more. If nham ends up being scum and Uite is actually a townie... I'm going to kick your ass so fucking much Uite.

[nhammen]

VOTE: silverbullet999

[silverbullet999]

sigh i hate everyone.

I'm assuming uite was the idiot

[silverbullet999]

this is also why I say to lynch me before lylo, cause noone ever fucking listens.

[Pine]

Why would we lynch you before LyLo? It's so easy to fluster you into making scum slips.

Even when you're Town.

[silverbullet999]

Don't talk to me... I'm in a bad mood and I fucking hate uite right now

[Uite]

Meh, you deserved it. You seriously fucked it up the last day.