Mini 1653: A Game of Pokes - game over

[massive]

Scum COULD kill away from the guaranteed 2-for-1 just to keep suspicion on havingfitz, but then No Lynch tomorrow becomes a real problem for them.

[havingfitz]

v/LA until next Tuesday

Going off the grid for the weekend + Monday.

[havingfitz]

People had been getting pokes as they have needed. I'm just really bad at remembering to post them

Have you poked formerfish...because he's awol.

[havingfitz]

And Wicked in 2 hours. %^&*!

[Aristophanes]

Alright, well, I can't think of much else I can do today, as I will be at work this weekend and away all of next week (will try posting, but no promises).

I am committed to the proposed plan and to an FF lynch.

I do wish some of the others would get in here, but I'm sure they will soon. Pokes would be neat (though Iknal said he is doing them, just not always posting them, so that's cool).

Massive, Thanks for considering the motion put forth.

As the final piece (which I kinda forgot about) you are correct.
If Wicked or I bit the bullet, it would make a lynch tomorrow difficult, but if we nolynch tomorrow, we can bring it to a 2:1 Lylo with hopeful conftowns and win this shit (Obviously Fitz wouldn't hide that night).

[Wickedestjr]

My defense is this: If I'm not the doctor, you have no explanation for no kill on N3 that doesn't involve wacky "scum skipped a kill" speculation.

That's not overly wacky. Firstly, the no kill didn't give town an extra lynch, so it doesn't really harm scum that much. Secondly, if it's sooo crazy for scum to no-kill, then the no-kill makes a really strong case for you being town... hmmmmm.

The argument from my end was and ALWAYS was "I have never hammered a scum buddy." It follows logically since my argument at the very start of D4 was "there's no amount of towncred that replaces a scum buddy."

Yes, but

I

was the one questioning you, and I

never

used the word 'hammer' when I was questioning you, I used the word 'vote' and 'vote' is all that I meant. You're ignoring this. When somebody asks a question, you should answer

their

question, not create a new question that is easier for you to answer. The "there's no amount of towncred...." line is not only relevant to hammer votes, the L-1/L-2/... votes also put a scum buddy's life at risk in exchange for town credit.

You did a very nice job of hunting up a game from, what, 2004?, that showed I could hammer a scum buddy. Shouting "LIES" at a failed memory from 10+ years ago is a little extreme, but since it's the ONLY thing you have, you gotta run with it.

It was actually 2008. Seven years ago, but it didn't take me long to find it. And it's not my fault that you made a claim that wasn't true. You should check your facts before saying you've NEVER done something. If I were making a claim like that, I would check my past games or use the phrase "I think", neither of which you did.

Why wouldn't I? You're obviously working very hard to shoehorn a case onto me that you yourself claimed started due solely to POE.

It started off as POE, there's nothing wrong with that. I made it clear that POE was enough reasoning for me, I have no reason to "work very hard to shoehorn a case" against you. It doesn't matter how the case starts, if I find better reasons then I will use them. And you're crazy if you think I'm not going to have issue with you lying. You never once said "Oops, my bad, I was wrong", you're continuing to defend your blatant lies and make me look like a misrepresenter. That's because you received a mafia role pm which told you that your objective is to avoid getting lynched.

You're trying to make it seem like I'm on a mission to get you lynched, but keep in mind: I clearly said that I would townread you if you were telling the truth about the meta. I was willing to town read you.

You're patently ignoring the rest of the town, despite the fact that even if I AM scum, there's still another scum out there that you've already mentally cleared.

You aren't trying to solve the game any more.

I'm not voting you right now. There's a reason for that. I'm focusing more on you because a.) there is much more evidence that you are scum and b.) up until now, I wasn't sure who your partner would be.

massive, if you are town, you are one of the most unreasonable players I have ever met. I've enjoyed playing with you up until today and am hoping that you are scum.

[Aristophanes]

Thoughts on anything else Wicked?
The proposed Night Actions?
FF as scum?

Basically, something not Massive related?

[Wickedestjr]

I think the scum are massive and Kop.

Still pretty confident that exactly one of havingfitz/massive is scum. Their power roles, together, make the town too strong. On the flip side, I think there's no way this town doesn't have a protective role. I have explained why massive is the scum of the two. Hopefully, I have convinced the other townies out there.

I have explained why I townread Aristo. That town read is the only one I'm still really comfortable with. This day has given me two more reasons to believe that;
-He was trying to use role pm wording to find scum.
-He's really focusing on power role actions after we lynch one of Kop/FF. It genuinely feels like he's trying to find a solution for town.

Below are quotes that I think speak for a massive/Kop team.

1. This interaction doesn't feel like scum buddies;

Spoiler: massive and Formerfish

Massive. You need to pull your head out of your ass here. Kelbris said that with a VT claim a cop would know not to investigate him. Oka said that if they were a cop, Kelbris would be high on their list of targets for an investigation. Oka is telling Kelbris why their theory on claimed VTs helping town is incorrect. This is not an example of someone trying to direct PRs, this is an example of someone explaining what they would hypothetically do in a given situation.

Look, if you don't like finding out why I'm voting for someone, then don't ask, OK? I realize that this is somewhat misdirected at you, but honestly I could give a rat's left nut if you agree with what I found scummy about Oka, and having both you and Saul step up to defend him is patently ridiculous. What could possibly be so townie about Oka that the both of you feel this strong of an urge -- strong enough to evidently vote ME -- to protect him?

Oka is saying, if he were the cop, that the claimed VT would be tops on his list of people to investigate. Not a popular wagon. Not a person he's trying to figure out the alignment of. Not anyone who's actually done scummy things, of which there are plenty to choose from. SPECIFICALLY the claimed VT, SPECIFICALLY because he claimed VT out of the gate. Obviously Oka is NOT a cop due to his wording, so who exactly is this phrase for? It's definitely NOT for Kelbris in an attempt to explain to him why his early play is bad for the town (otherwise someone else would have mentioned it by now, since everyone already weighed in on this a week ago). So what is it? A scare tactic? Legitimate good townie play?

No. So you must believe that Oka is just a bad enough player to actually investigate a claimed VT on N1. He even SAYS it would be wasted, but that he'd still do it. (Note that I am just now even seeing how in 199 Oka knows that investigating Kelbris N1 would be wasted, and doesn't even consider the result that a cop might get a guilty on Kelbris, despite that being the ENTIRE POINT of that sentence.)

So is that the Oka that you're defending?

Slandaar, I see you posting, and it's not lost on me, I'll follow up in another post, no sense in it getting lost in this.

The tone is overly frustrated and the response is too in-depth.

2. This post seems relevant now;

Massive: town, after reading his posts I can see nothing that makes me suspect that he is scum.
havingfitz: null, at this point in the game I have seen nothing to sway me either way

Massive read is odd. Kelbris doesn't apply the same logic to Fitz (and other null players or vice versa - Massive read should be null)

Kelbris town reads massive for the exact same reasoning that he used to null read havingfitz.

3. Strong Kop tell;

Do we really believe the hider claim? I mean doc, cop, hider, and vigilante a bit too overpowering? Me personally, believe that is too town sided personally.

I'm not fully sure anymore, tbh. I am going to have to think about this.

Kop expresses doubt in the hider claim because hider/doc/cop/vig is too strong. However, this argument is equally valid against the doctor claim, yet Kop doesn't express doubt in the doctor claim.

4. Last second effort to distance pre-lynch;

Let's see if I can get something started. VOTE: vote kop since massive and aristo have already indicated interest in going after him. and 2 days is nothing, wicked got monkey lynched in less time. though like i said, there really shouldn't be a deadline without a player in kop's slot, unless he's the one we pick to lynch. There's no question his slot has been scummy across 2 different players.

5. As I said before, Formerfish wouldn't have blatantly voiced his frustration with the vikingfan hammer if they were scum buddies. He is sensible enough to stay quiet in this situation.

[Wickedestjr]

Here is what I propose.

Vote: Kop

Lynch Kop.

If and when Kop flips scum, havingfitz can hide behind massive tonight. If and when havingfitz dies during the night, massive is confirmed scum the next day. If havingfitz survives, he is confirmed and is lynched instead.

[Wickedestjr]

No quickhammer on FF tells me he is the right choice.

This is a very weak argument considering if Formerfish is town, then one of the scum is voting for him right now - a quick hammer is impossible.

[Wickedestjr]

Two things I would like to point out regarding my last big post.

I. The case against massive is very strong. He's found something wrong with almost every aspect of it, but that's because he's scum trying to defend himself - his defense is awful.

And points #2 and #3, in particular, show some strong bias from the kelbris/Kop slot in favor of massive.

II. I know you guys will be skeptical about my point #4, but bear with me please. I found a game of vikingfan's where he was scum. It was a very long time ago, but not many games ago for vikingfan and I think it's worth considering: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=3269. In this game, vikingfan voted for townies the entire game until right before he got lynched on day 3 - he voted for his scum buddy. Looks awfully similar to this game. He was scum, got lynched on day 3, every vote was for a known townie until the final vote for Kop. I seriously don't think this is a coincidence.

[Wickedestjr]

I will also be V/LA this weekend. PLEASE vote for Kop and if you do vote for Formerfish, please don't lynch him before I get back (Monday afternoon/evening).

[Iknal]

Day 5
Deadline is 23/06/2015 1930 UTC +10
(expired on 2015-06-23 19:30:00)

Vote Count 5.5
Formerfish(2): Kop, aristophanes
Kop(1): Wickedestjr
Not Voting(3): massive, Formerfish, havingfitz

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

And the only Night actions that can hit a hider hiding are the night actions on the person he's behind.

No, the winner would not be declared.

A hider can't be roleblocked.

[Kop]

Here is what I propose.

Vote: Kop

Lynch Kop.

If and when Kop flips scum, havingfitz can hide behind massive tonight. If and when havingfitz dies during the night, massive is confirmed scum the next day. If havingfitz survives, he is confirmed and is lynched instead.

You won't find scum though.

Why don't we just stick to the original plan and lynch ff and fitz hide behind me.

[Aristophanes]

Here is what I propose.

Vote: Kop

Lynch Kop.

If and when Kop flips scum, havingfitz can hide behind massive tonight. If and when havingfitz dies during the night, massive is confirmed scum the next day. If havingfitz survives, he is confirmed and is lynched instead.

You won't find scum though.

Why don't we just stick to the original plan and lynch ff and fitz hide behind me.

That's not the greatest of defences.

What makes you believe we will find scum in FF?

[Kop]

I've given no reason to be suspected. I find a scum member trying to pin something on me. If I was scum I wouldn't need to bus him.

I'm just a plain old VT and fitz if he is hider would confirm that by hiding behind me.

[Kop]

Here is what I propose.

Vote: Kop

Lynch Kop.

If and when Kop flips scum, havingfitz can hide behind massive tonight. If and when havingfitz dies during the night, massive is confirmed scum the next day. If havingfitz survives, he is confirmed and is lynched instead.

You won't find scum though.

Why don't we just stick to the original plan and lynch ff and fitz hide behind me.

That's not the greatest of defences.

What makes you believe we will find scum in FF?

And you are sounding like you are doubting ff is scum considering your voting for him

[massive]

Wickedest

: why does the interaction by vikingfan on Kop make Kop scum, but the interaction by Kop on vikingfan (see my ISO for post numbers, am on phone) have no effect on your read of Kop?

[Kop]

I suggest look at my iso towards the viking lynch. At that time of game there was zero need for me to bus him if we were on the same team.

[Kop]

I suggest look at my iso towards the viking lynch. At that time of game there was zero need for me to bus him if we were on the same team.

[Formerfish]

Mod Replace me please

Sorry guys, I just don't have my heart in this right now.

[Kop]

Goddammit. Either mafia has a roleblocker of Viking is immune.

So you shot viking which means you were either roleblocked, or viking is immune to deaths? One shot BP town/Scum aligned?

Interesting. I also find it interesting that idget doesn't even mention the possibility of a doctor (the most common way someone is saved). I'm not bulletproof so that's not it so either random is lying and is actually scum or roleblocker or doc of some type. And if a doctor saved me (regular, oneshot, or otherwise), don't out yourself please, you'll be marked for death by scum right away and I'd rather keep our PRs in the dark. In any case, assuming idget is telling the truth about being a one-shot vig, his shot is used up now so he's useless. But if he's scum, then the lack of a second kill makes sense. Thoughts?

So Random voted for Viking, and Viking voted Random, so Random has shot the guy that both were voting for each other, so let's put another assumption out here, from thinking more about it, it might be far fetched, but I'd like others thoughts on this too, not just from Random or Viking.

Viking sees that Random has voted for him and with random roleclaiming one shot vig, viking may think with his vote being on him, he was the one he was going to shoot, so lets assume viking is scum, to which one of his partners is the roleblocker or viking could be the roleblocker, anyway to which they use to block his shot in case that random shoots him because that's where his vote is, so whilst he is saved, it would put doubt amongst the town that he is telling the truth about his shot.

Anyone else feel like the scum team could be rando/kop/?

Think about it, rando pretends to be a vig, and then has kop come out the gate saying why they think rando was blocked and that he is really town.

So Random voted for Viking, and Viking voted Random, so Random has shot the guy that both were voting for each other, so let's put another assumption out here, from thinking more about it, it might be far fetched, but I'd like others thoughts on this too, not just from Random or Viking.

Viking sees that Random has voted for him and with random roleclaiming one shot vig, viking may think with his vote being on him, he was the one he was going to shoot, so lets assume viking is scum, to which one of his partners is the roleblocker or viking could be the roleblocker, anyway to which they use to block his shot in case that random shoots him because that's where his vote is, so whilst he is saved, it would put doubt amongst the town that he is telling the truth about his shot.

Okay, this is too much wine.
Why would we assume all of this and what does it tell us?
If we are assuming all of this, why no vote on Viking?

Didn't think of that -_-
I still have mt shot if I was rbed.

Is that a thing?
I feel like that's not a thing.

Why would you assume your shot is still valid if RB'd?

I was asking other people's thoughts on it. I don't want to push another lynch forward and end up with another mislynch. But the more and more I think about it the only way i can cure my thoughts I am going to have to push for a lynch.

VOTE: viking

you do realize under the old plan you were supposed to be the kill, not me, from rando. It's the plan that was mentioned all day yesterday. It's far more likely to use your logic, that scum had one of two goals. Either frame you for the murder, if you're innocent, (Hey, Kop was supposed to be dead? why didn't he die? must be that either him or rando is scum!) or that you are scum and wanted to save yourself from getting killed.

Who was actually targeted has pretty much nothing to do with it as who was targeted came out of left field and basically no one could foresee it. And this all assumes rando is telling the truth. If he's scum, then this has a far easier solution. Is there a reason why you're not willing to consider this solution, Kop?

So Random voted for Viking, and Viking voted Random, so Random has shot the guy that both were voting for each other, so let's put another assumption out here, from thinking more about it, it might be far fetched, but I'd like others thoughts on this too, not just from Random or Viking.

Viking sees that Random has voted for him and with random roleclaiming one shot vig, viking may think with his vote being on him, he was the one he was going to shoot, so lets assume viking is scum, to which one of his partners is the roleblocker or viking could be the roleblocker, anyway to which they use to block his shot in case that random shoots him because that's where his vote is, so whilst he is saved, it would put doubt amongst the town that he is telling the truth about his shot.

Okay, this is too much wine.
Why would we assume all of this and what does it tell us?
If we are assuming all of this, why no vote on Viking?

Didn't think of that -_-
I still have mt shot if I was rbed.

Is that a thing?
I feel like that's not a thing.

Why would you assume your shot is still valid if RB'd?

I was asking other people's thoughts on it. I don't want to push another lynch forward and end up with another mislynch. But the more and more I think about it the only way i can cure my thoughts I am going to have to push for a lynch.

VOTE: viking

you do realize under the old plan you were supposed to be the kill, not me, from rando. It's the plan that was mentioned all day yesterday. It's far more likely to use your logic, that scum had one of two goals. Either frame you for the murder, if you're innocent, (Hey, Kop was supposed to be dead? why didn't he die? must be that either him or rando is scum!) or that you are scum and wanted to save yourself from getting killed.

Who was actually targeted has pretty much nothing to do with it as who was targeted came out of left field and basically no one could foresee it. And this all assumes rando is telling the truth. If he's scum, then this has a far easier solution. Is there a reason why you're not willing to consider this solution, Kop?

Yeah I know what the old plan was, but welcome to the new one.

And I can see the logic behind what you said about 'hey I was supposed to be dead', that would have been there plan had Random not come out, and STATE who he shot. So let's put the further logic to your plan, now the tables have turned, it should be you who is dead, not me, as Random has already said he shot you, so why should I die, if he mentioned he shot you? How would that frame me?

Now there is one thing that is stinking about your post, and I will state this before I go on, lynch me if that will cure everybodies thoughts, and that will give everybody the answer to your part "that you are scum and wanted to save yourself from getting killed" that I am a VT, and I suggest they lynch you next. Back to the post, this is striking me, a lot more than it has been, this is scum defending corners, he has got the shot roleblocked and he is going to be at the forefront of defending it all, trying to look pro town and trying to put FOS onto someone.

So Random voted for Viking, and Viking voted Random, so Random has shot the guy that both were voting for each other, so let's put another assumption out here, from thinking more about it, it might be far fetched, but I'd like others thoughts on this too, not just from Random or Viking.

Viking sees that Random has voted for him and with random roleclaiming one shot vig, viking may think with his vote being on him, he was the one he was going to shoot, so lets assume viking is scum, to which one of his partners is the roleblocker or viking could be the roleblocker, anyway to which they use to block his shot in case that random shoots him because that's where his vote is, so whilst he is saved, it would put doubt amongst the town that he is telling the truth about his shot.

Okay, this is too much wine.
Why would we assume all of this and what does it tell us?
If we are assuming all of this, why no vote on Viking?

Didn't think of that -_-
I still have mt shot if I was rbed.

Is that a thing?
I feel like that's not a thing.

Why would you assume your shot is still valid if RB'd?

I was asking other people's thoughts on it. I don't want to push another lynch forward and end up with another mislynch. But the more and more I think about it the only way i can cure my thoughts I am going to have to push for a lynch.

VOTE: viking

you do realize under the old plan you were supposed to be the kill, not me, from rando. It's the plan that was mentioned all day yesterday. It's far more likely to use your logic, that scum had one of two goals. Either frame you for the murder, if you're innocent, (Hey, Kop was supposed to be dead? why didn't he die? must be that either him or rando is scum!) or that you are scum and wanted to save yourself from getting killed.

Who was actually targeted has pretty much nothing to do with it as who was targeted came out of left field and basically no one could foresee it. And this all assumes rando is telling the truth. If he's scum, then this has a far easier solution. Is there a reason why you're not willing to consider this solution, Kop?

Yeah I know what the old plan was, but welcome to the new one.

And I can see the logic behind what you said about 'hey I was supposed to be dead', that would have been there plan had Random not come out, and STATE who he shot. So let's put the further logic to your plan, now the tables have turned, it should be you who is dead, not me, as Random has already said he shot you, so why should I die, if he mentioned he shot you? How would that frame me?

Now there is one thing that is stinking about your post, and I will state this before I go on, lynch me if that will cure everybodies thoughts, and that will give everybody the answer to your part "that you are scum and wanted to save yourself from getting killed" that I am a VT, and I suggest they lynch you next. Back to the post, this is striking me, a lot more than it has been, this is scum defending corners, he has got the shot roleblocked and he is going to be at the forefront of defending it all, trying to look pro town and trying to put FOS onto someone.

I don't think you understand where I'm coming from. Let me explain it again. The reason I am talking about the way things were supposed to be is that scum was operating under the assumption that is what was going to happen. Town was operating under that assumption. Therefore, you have to ask, what would have been the outcome under your idea of a mafia roleblocker? Either rando would be perceived as being guilty for lack of a kill or you would be because rando was going to shoot you and you wanted to stay alive. The reason why it doesn't matter in my case is simply this: nobody could have foreseen rando picking me. let me put it this way: would you be voting wicked if rando claimed he had shot wicked? havingfitz? aristo? I doubt it.

More to the point, I don't like how you are tunneling onto one possible hypothesis for this without even considering the much more likely scenario of rando lying. Your certainty that we have a mafia roleblocker seems to indicate at inside knowledge only scum would have. I prefer to remain open to all options. And you need to remember, we are investigating the assumptions on what people were operating under last night to indicate some idea of the reasons behind their actions.

lol the only reason I'm at L-2 is because 3 people are voting me and one only because of pressure, I've seen no actual indication from any other player that they're interested in voting me so I think you're barking up the wrong tree.

That said, it also seems like random isn't getting any traction either so it may be time for us to start branching off to other prospects, much as I don't like rando's play. And to answer the question, I'm not sure if he's scummy or not to be honest. I just know his play is definitely not helping town, especially with his outright refusal to answer questions. Plus, he posts a case on me, declares it to be part 1, I rebut it, and he comes back again and posts a couple of one-liners and never posts part 2, much less rebut what I wrote.

Any thought on finding scum among the vote counts? It's page 39 and we've yet to see much investigation on those. Currently, fitz (though forced to be the hammer), wicked, and FA are the ones on both lynches so that is a place to start.

So you're saying either:

(a) Randomidget is lying about his shot and is scum, or
(b) scum have a roleblocker that blocked Randomidget

Doesn't (b) point to scum-Kop?

So you're saying either:

(a) Randomidget is lying about his shot and is scum, or
(b) scum have a roleblocker that blocked Randomidget

Doesn't (b) point to scum-Kop?

Is that what your going to push for? So I'm assuming at this point you don't speak in scenarios or possibilities? We use night actjons , lynches to gain information and the information at hand was what I was gathering, and by playing these games for a while, gaining knowledge of roles and mechanics, me stating what could have possibly happened doesn't mean I am scum.

And whilst I am thinking about it, there is a distinct possibility behind that statement of yours , this could be a method to pin something onto me and to try pin some sort of wagon onto me, once I am mislynched then POI can go back to lynching random and you gain two lynches nearer end game. Does that scenario make you scum? Possibly.

I picked up on a few things that didn't sit right with me, and I pushed it, whilst others were still trying to drive a wagon onto Random, and tried to deflect a wagon onto me when it looked like Viking was getting lynched. There was no real need at the time for me to bus.

Actually, you know what, scratch post 1094 - I do

not

need to reread right now.

I have had decently strong town reads on Kop, random, and Aristo for a while now. That leaves FA_Q2, Formerfish, havingfitz, and massive. I was starting to reconsider Formerfish, but then I noticed this post;

Massive, what were you looking at when you voted? The last page has a vote count that shows viking at l-1 as well.

This post seems to convey some mild frustration with massive for accidentally hammering. If Formerfish was scum, and partners with viking, then he probably would not be so obvious in his frustration over the viking lynch. This makes a lot more sense coming from Formerfishtown that preferred a Kop lynch and genuinely believed that viking was town.

havingfitz is also town for asking if random shot last night. If he was scum then he would have probably figured out that random no longer had his shot - either he would have read random's posts more carefully or his partner would have informed him.

Sure, both of these points could be defended by WIFOM, but I really don't think that Formerfish/havingfitz are being tricky right now.

That means the scum are FA and massive.

Vote: FA_Q2

What has changed Wicked, since this post? Now that you are trying to drive a wagon onto me, I've gone from decently strong town reads, to now possibly flipping scum.

[massive]

Mod: Request for extension on deadline for (a) Wickedest's VLA and (b) if you're really replacing Formerfish

[Aristophanes]

Mod: Request for extension on deadline for (a) Wickedest's VLA and (b) if you're really replacing Formerfish

Seconded.

Unless you and Fitz want to vote FF with us, solving the replacement issue, v/la issue and hopefully the game!

[massive]

I want to vote Formerfish but I want to hear from Wickedest first.