Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over


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Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:57 am

Post by Kison »

Adel wrote:
Kison wrote:
Adel wrote: I was totally playing to draw a NK from him, trying to fake him out into thinking that I was a power-role. I think Kison-scum would keep me alive to end-game.
Would Kison-scum do that? I don't believe this is the optimal endgame for Kison-scum, and here's why:

1) Ectomancer practically wrote me off earlier in the game.

please explain this. I do not understand what you mean by "practically wrote me off".
I'm over exaggerating, but this is what I'm referring to:
Ectomancer wrote:Spank my bottom and call me a bad boy, but I think Kison is my advisor today. I trust him.
My point is that this on top of his distrust for Korts would set the stage for an easy mislynch of Korts if I was scum and left both of them alive. You know how I play as scum. The closer I get to endgame, the more I run through the possibilities. One could argue I'm playing a game of WIFOM to mislead whichever of you is town into thinking I'm not scum, but that raises the question of why I wouldn't have just gone with the cakewalk route to victory(Korts+Ectomancer) instead. Both avenues offer the same possible outcomes. This avenue holds far greater risks.
Adel wrote:
2) Korts had been Ectomancer's top pick for a long time, and would be an easier player to push into voting Korts, especially...
why would Korts kill ThAdmiral before Ecto?
Why not? After tubby tied, the order didn't really matter - they couldn't have been scum together unless there was a four man scum team. This means the only question about ThAdmiral's investigation's validity depended not on his alignment, but the possibility of Ectomancer being a godfather.
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Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:12 am

Post by Adel »

I don't think Ecto was as convinced of your alignment as that quote would indicate.

~~~

hey Korts, Kison is in danger of talking me into changing my mind. You probably want to type something in this game.
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Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:55 am

Post by Korts »

Don't worry, I will. I just drunk too much and I'm tired as well. Give me the weekend to reread.
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Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:45 pm

Post by Adel »

lol, Kison just got the "Best Manipulator" scummy and I got "Best performance as Mafia (Individual)" and we are in a 3-person endgame together.


how is your read going Korts?
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Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:25 pm

Post by Korts »

Badly :( Didn't really get anything done...
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Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:27 pm

Post by Korts »

congrats btw for the scummies.
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Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Mon Feb 23, 2009 1:08 pm

Post by Korts »

I'm posting what I have so far, so you have something to respond to.

Why did Adel bus both scumpartners if she was scum? The wagon on tubby was started by Adel, and the wagon on darkdude was taken to the finish line by her. This is my main concern.

This post, for instance:
Adel wrote:tubby: do you mind answering some questions about the case against darkdude?

1. What do you think the legitimate reasons (i.e. non-bullshit reasons) to be voting for darkdude are?
2. Do you think that all three people voting for darkdude are scum?
3. If you think at least one of the people voting for darkdude are not scum, why do you think that a townie is voting for darkdude?
She's forcing one scum to elaborate on the case against the other. I have a hard time wrapping my head around the thought that the third scum would do this.

Then there's this post:
Adel wrote:thanks for asking that question Rage. it forced me to take a second look at everything, and I don't think that darkdude is the right lynch for today.

unvote, vote:tubby



for:
  • 1. lurking through the game without getting replaced
    2. being a possible alt
    3. following my vote onto IH
    4. only voting for a townie on day 1
I don't see the purpose in jumping off a scumbuddy's wagon just to start another one on the other scumbuddy. Granted, the tubby-wagon didn't seem to gain momentum any time soon, but the game had been stalling for quite a while then. This whole tubby/darkdude thing fits into the profile of supporting competing wagons. If Adel is scum and purposefully did this kind of double bussing I'm nomming her for a scummy.

That's it for now; it's 1:07 AM here and I'm getting up at six so I'll continue this later.
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Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:48 am

Post by Korts »

tubby, directed at Adel wrote:2)do you think you should full claim since Bow kinda soft claimed?
I don't think tubby would ask his scumpartner to fullclaim regardless of whether they "kinda" softclaimed or not. Considering this in conjunction with the fact that Adel pushed tubby until he was at L-1, I'm more and more convinced that Adel isn't scum. The parallel wagons theory seems much more plausible in retrospect.

I'm more or less satisfied with my read on Adel. I'm starting on Kison tomorrow.
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Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Wed Feb 25, 2009 2:10 pm

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Imagine all the people
living life in peace
yoo-hoo-hooo


Vote Count


(not voting: Kison, Korts, Adel)
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Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Wed Feb 25, 2009 5:07 pm

Post by Adel »

Korts wrote:
Then there's this post:
Adel wrote:thanks for asking that question Rage. it forced me to take a second look at everything, and I don't think that darkdude is the right lynch for today.

unvote, vote:tubby



for:
  • 1. lurking through the game without getting replaced
    2. being a possible alt
    3. following my vote onto IH
    4. only voting for a townie on day 1
I don't see the purpose in jumping off a scumbuddy's wagon just to start another one on the other scumbuddy. Granted, the tubby-wagon didn't seem to gain momentum any time soon, but the game had been stalling for quite a while then. This whole tubby/darkdude thing fits into the profile of supporting competing wagons. If Adel is scum and purposefully did this kind of double bussing I'm nomming her for a scummy.

That's it for now; it's 1:07 AM here and I'm getting up at six so I'll continue this later.
IH = Kison. That is one of my remaining problems with thinking that Kison is scum.. both darkdude and tubby followed my vote onto IH.
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Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Thu Feb 26, 2009 4:38 pm

Post by Kison »

I'm not sure what Korts is doing, but I thought he was about to lay the smack down on me. Still waiting for that.

Ultimately, I think I will be voting for Korts. I've been over this a bunch of times in my head:

- I believe this endgame makes most sense for Korts to have put in place. WIFOM's a possibility, I know, but these things need to be considered because it went through someone's head. Adel knew I had her on the back burner, as I'd pressed her harder than any player. Not to mention, I had placed Korts among the least suspicious up until now. Ectomancer also had given an indication that he found Adel's double bussing to be an indication that Adelscum was unlikely. Why, then, would Adel kill Ectomancer?

- Hard backtracking of Adel after his 'conviction' that she was the lynch for the day continues to be unsettling. What I don't understand(which I possibly have missed) is why Korts put Adel as his most preferred lynch (now) if he was satisfied by her reasoning for the tubby<->IP wagon hop.

- In this post, tubby put Adel in the 'town' category. I believe 'middle of the road' is a more likely placement for newbish(note: not complete newb) scum to place their scumbuddy. Yes, I realize I was also one he placed as 'middle of the road,' but I don't care because I am half talking to myself.

- At one point(Can't seem to find it) I recall tubby promising to post a case on Korts that never formed. Possibly weak bussing.

---

I'm going to withhold voting until both of you chime in, but especially Korts because he is not only the person I am threatening to vote, but also because he was about to post a read on me. We still have a little bit more than a week.
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Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Thu Feb 26, 2009 9:52 pm

Post by Adel »

@Korts, why does this endgame (you + me + kison) make sense for being something that kison-scum engineered?
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Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:26 pm

Post by Korts »

@Adel, because it makes less sense for being something that Adelscum engineered.

I'm sorry, I still haven't gotten round to looking at Kison. Semester's hard on me. I'll do it on the weekend.
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Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:44 pm

Post by Adel »

vote: Korts[/b ]
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Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:09 pm

Post by Adel »

I was this close " " to voting for you. I know what phases your other games are in and I've tracked your activity level on this site. This is an example of where playing in multiple games is hurting your chances of winning this game. You've lurked and stalled all through this game. My heart will have frozen against you if you take another week. Evidence now, please.
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Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:48 am

Post by Korts »

I don't agree with the lurking and stalling. I've kept up a constant flow of posting with relevant information/opinions, even if I explicitly stated on multiple occasions that my schedule prevents me from immediate thorough research; and I'm fairly sure that every time I made a promise to make a case or dig for specific comments/posts I did just that, even if it took me a couple days.

My Kison read is starting now; I intend to have something soon (either today in ca. two hours before I have to catch a train or tomorrow).
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Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Sat Feb 28, 2009 1:15 am

Post by Korts »

Unfortunately Kison replaced in Night 2/Day 3, so he has only directly interacted with one of the two known scum.

His focus was on tubby from pretty much the beginning of the day, with a secondary line of questioning at Rage. The pressure on tubby before Day 3 had been almost non-existent, with only Adel calling him out, if I recall correctly, multiple times on the low contribution.
Kison wrote:I can't speak for others, but your defense of darkdude was what stood out most for me as I read the game.



Vote: Darkdude
(instead of Rage; corrected in next post)
This slip might be indicative of something; however I can't really figure out whether it's relevant at all. I can't really imagine scum confusing a scumpartner with an intended mislynch, but then again the only similarity between Rage and darkdude is the fact that they are both mentioned in the sentence before the vote. So nulltell or very vague towntell.

Kison points out that Adel unvotes tubby and votes IP ca. a hundred posts later, as an indication of Adel being connected to tubby; he tries casting suspicion in these two posts:
Kison wrote:
insanepenguin02 wrote:
Adel wrote:
vote: insanepenguin02
the way you vote without reasoning is quite interesting. Setting up traps, continuing wagons, I don't know the reason behind this one, as I'm sure nobody else does either.
This is typical. See this and this.
afatchic wrote:Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum
(A) Adel -> The second game I linked to above has Adel running her scumbuddy up to the verge of being lynched. When he (Surye) suddenly comes close to being lynched, she quickly jumps off and begins campaigning against someone else. (A) is the assumption that Tubby216 is scum, which would make :
Adel wrote:
unvote

for unstated reasons.
a very familiar scene.

I would also go with Rage, because nothing about Tubby216 flipping scum really distinguishes my suspicion of him, but rather puts more on the table.

(B) Rage -> Tubby216 flipping town would land me back here.
Kison wrote:She voted Tubby216 in post 687 and unvoted in post 705
The fact that Kison starts drawing the connection between tubby and Adel
after
I'd drawn attention to the possible pairing (I stated my theory in post 834, and Kison started making similar accusations in 836) implies slight opportunism at a chance to link a scumpartner to a townie--although the time zone difference may be the single reason for this. Going back through Kison's posts, on that day that both the mentioned posts were made (Jan 11, 2009) Kison's first post after my 834 is an hour later (my post: 9:17 PM GMT+1; Kison's post: 10:07 PM GMT+1) and the last one before that is seventeen hours before so there is nothing to imply that he'd been reading the forum before I had made that point--which doesn't mean that his accusation wasn't caused by my similar action. He also pushes the tubby-Adel theory with much more conviction after the tubby lynch than the day before.

--------------

This is tubby's final suspicion list:
tubby216 wrote:umm not sure i guess if i had to say

ip and thAdmiral

i think most pro town are adel and ecto

korts, rage and kison are pretty much middle of the road could go either way
Naturally his scumpartner isn't in the IP/ThAdmiral group of "suspected" scum; I would think tubby would put his remaining scupartner in the middle of the road more likely than as most pro-town after he'd consistently called darkdude a "confused townie" right up to darkdude's lynch. This, to me, implicates Kison slightly.

To be completely honest, there is very little to imply Kison as the last scum; his behaviour has been consistently pro-town and his interactions with tubby easily interpreted both ways. On the other hand, Adel's actions make me seriously doubt that she could be scum, therefore my choice is clear.

vote: Kison
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Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:30 am

Post by Kison »

Well, that was underwhelming.

Vote: Korts


From what I gather, the best you threw at me is that I reinforced your reason for attacking Adel. The problem is that I had a
unique
reason for disliking that move: the previous game I had played with Adel which I referenced as a clear example of why that vote hop looked familiar to what I'd seen her do as scum.

I stand by everything I said in my last post. If Adel doesn't come in here, hammer, and dance a the mafia jig of victory, I'll see about saying more. I'll be demoralized otherwise.
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Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:26 am

Post by Korts »

Meh, it's up to Adel either way now.
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Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:47 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Vote Count


Kison (1) :
Korts

Korts (1) :
Kison


(Not voting - Adel)
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Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by Adel »

vote: Kison



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Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:34 pm

Post by Korts »

well I'm town, and judging from the long wait you are too.

Yaytown?
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Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:00 pm

Post by Kison »

*sigh*

Like I said, I wouldn't have orchestrated this endgame.
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Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:27 pm

Post by afatchic »

Kison wrote:*sigh*

Like I said, I wouldn't have orchestrated this endgame.
good game. what happened on the non-night kills?
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Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:42 pm

Post by Kison »

No clue. I'm not scum. :-(

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