Micro 850: Follow the Leader (Game Over)

[Auro]

PenguinPower's play suggests the game is more likely than not un-compromised, so I'm pretty sure we're on the right track.

If he flips town tomorrow's gonna be interesting

[YellowSnow]

What does uncompromised mean?

[volxen]

Athena, thoughts? Should we just quickhammer TTTT? The only reason not to quickhammer him IMO is if we see value in having him say who he thinks the town leader is.

[Auro]

Doesn't matter at the moment.

[YellowSnow]

COA is unlikely to show up.

[Auro]

The only reason not to quickhammer him IMO is if we see value in having him say who he thinks the town leader is.

Volxen, if he DOES get it right, it's either A) him having figured it out or B) Gamestate compromise from long ago.
Do you see us shifting a lynch in either case?

[Auro]

Hammer, hammer!

[CultOfAthena]

VOTE: TTTT

If this doesn't win the game, lynch YS tomorrow.

[volxen]

Here is what i am convinced of:

1) Yellowsnow is 100% locktown. I can explain why, because frankly I feel there is no longer any need to keep the identity of the town leader a "secret". In fact if TTTT is actually town somehow, then playing as if scum doesn't know who the town leader is when they really do know only benefits them.

2) TTTT is probably scum, but I am not 100% convinced of this.

3) If Auro or COA is scum, they 100% know who the town leader is, and have known since day 2 or even earlier. If one of them is scum, they hard-bussed Penguin and had Penguin continue to play on day 2 as if he didn't know who the town leader was.

Like I said I can spell everything out if need be.

[volxen]

Auro, you are convinced that if TTTT isn't scum, then the last remaining scum knows who the town leader is, yes? So do you have any objections to me "revealing" who the town leader is? Because I would need to do so to explain why I have Yellowsnow as locktown.

[Auro]

YS isn't locktown, I'll show you why your evidence is false - I think since the only possible case where the game continues implies scum knows the TL's identity *unless* YS made a wrong guess and stuck with it, which ended up making you believe he's locktown but not really.

[Auro]

No; I want YellowSnow to reveal TL.

[volxen]

No; I want YellowSnow to reveal TL.

So you think it's possible that Yellowsnow is not only scum, but

still

doesn't know who the town leader is? Why would asking Yellowsnow who the town leader is be any more revealing than asking TTTT? You said earlier that it would essentially be pointless to ask TTTT this question, so I'm not seeing why it would be worthwhile to ask it of Yellowsnow.

Even without me spelling it out, you should see why there is a

very

strong case for why Yellowsnow is locktown.

[CultOfAthena]

I had a post about how I'm literally never ever scum here, but I don't think it's even worth posting. I'm fairly confident the game is over.

If by some miracle it isn't, all I know is that both Auro and volxen are locktown without a single doubt in my mind, so it's just process of elimination that YS is scum. I do not currently believe that YS is scum and I didn't in my first post in the game, but my townreads on Auro and volxen are stronger. That's it.

[Auro]

@Volx: Lol no, there's a very specific possibility you're omitting which I think CoA sees too.
YellowSnow should be the one claiming.

[Auro]

YellowSnow, claim the Town Leader in your next post.

Thanks.

[volxen]

@Volx: Lol no, there's a very specific possibility you're omitting which I think CoA sees too.
YellowSnow should be the one claiming.

Even taking into account Yellowsnow's day one play? In any case, are you telling me you are convinced the last remaining scum is either TTTT or Yellowsnow? Do you have both COA and I as locktown? If so, then there is no need for Yellowsnow to reveal the Town leader.

And would Yellowsnow correctly identifying the town leader at such a late state in the game (3-player lylo) change him from a possible scum suspect to locktown anyways?

[Auro]

I have you as locktown.
I have CoA as lock-(Knows TL).

YellowSnow correctly identifying implies game ends, but otherwise it means CoA *could* be scum if not. It should imply I could be scum too, from her perspective.

[Auro]

I want him to claim for a very specific reason related to the possibility you may not have seen, which I think can explain his D1 play.

[volxen]

I don't see how both you and COA are mutually coming to the conclusion that Yellowsnow is more likely to be scum than one another. The combination of 1) Yellowsnow being scum and 2)

STILL

not knowing who the town leader is also seems ridiculously far-fetched.

Hint:

If scum has paying very close attention to this game, especially to day one, they could deduce who the town leader is, and that would have guided their play on day two.

[Auro]

Don't post more till YS claims!

[volxen]

Yellowsnow's day one play makes much more sense from a town!POV than from a scum!POV.

[volxen]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78419

That's a link to Newbie 1913, which Yellowsnow and I played together very recently. Take a look at it if you have time; his day one play here is more likely to come from town!him than scum!him. Scum!him would not have the confidence to quickhammer on day one of this game after what happened to him on day one of Newbie 1913.

[Auro]

Coaching.

[volxen]

Auro, let's say that I am nightkilled, and 3-player lylo is you, Athena, and Yellowsnow. Yellowsnow correctly identifies the town leader. Would that in and of itself actually make you more inclined to lynch Athena? Because I am getting the impression that you believe that scum!Yellowsnow is far more likely than scum!Athena. You seem to be hoping for the specific scenario where he incorrectly identifies the town leader and therefore becomes confirmed scum, but it seems like you would lynch him over COA regardless of whether he correctly identifies the town leader or not. That's why I don't see why you suddenly want to follow TGP's plan with respect to Yellowsnow specifically.