Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Adel]

Is this based on another algorithm?

And, you're wrong again.

don't knock my mini-normal algorithm -- it is pretty good.

=======================================

Votecount #5

Oman - 2 (Erg0, Jitsu)

pickemgenius - 2 (TrustGossip, Incognito)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Matt_S)
Erg0 - 2 (Guardian, Oman)
opie - 2 (Adel, Xylthixlm)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (ChaosOmega)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[opie]

I just want to clarify something. Xylthixlm, in Post 118 you meant to vote for Oman?

I'm being confused for Oman now, am I? I'm not sure what to make of this.

*shakes ahead and walks away*

[Adel]

consider it the anthem of your death march.

[Xylthixlm]

I just want to clarify something. Xylthixlm, in Post 118 you meant to vote for Oman?

I'm being confused for Oman now, am I? I'm not sure what to make of this.

*shakes ahead and walks away*

I meant to vote for you. The confusion was in my reading the votecount.

[Jitsu]

I do agree that random wagons are fine for gauging reactions. Now that the Erg0 wagon has been admitted to be random, I can begin to re-evaluate.

Of course, Oman and Guardian had to try to sell the Erg0 wagon as semi-legit to get a good reaction, but when it became reasonably clear that nobody else was jumping on and the case was crap, I was waiting for Oman and/or Guardian to jump off or admit it was a random wagon. It just took a bit longer than I expected.

On a quick reread or the relevant posts from Opie's argument, Oman and Guardian don't sound quite as scummy as I had originally thought, but Guardian's reaction to the pressure on him was interesting. Instead of really addressing the points against him or simply stating he was trying to get reactions (the normal response to being called on pushing a random wagon), he retaliated against Opie and I and, and he did seem just a little evasive with his answers. Was it because Guardian is town and thus was justified to suspect Opie and I for attacking him (and holding back to see our reactions), or was it a scum that was a bit flustered for getting caught on something apparently insignificant? I don't know. At this point, my opinion of Guardian is neutral.

As for Opie, I'm not sure what to think. The random wagon on Erg0 did stick around longer than I would have expected. I admit I got a bit confused myself about what was serious and what was not. I think Opie could have made the same mistake. Could Opie be a scum that got caught overreacting? Yes. I'm not ready to place a vote on Opie yet, but I will be watching what happens with his wagon.

My suspicion of Oman is not what it was before. However, I still don't like Oman's attempted fish related to Erg0's vig ability, even if it was done in conjunction with a joke/random wagon. A townie should not be seeking information on any townie power roles that early just to get info on the setup, joke or no joke.


@Adel: Do you really feel that you have enough information so far on this game for your models to give an accurate answer right now? What kind of percentages are your models giving you?

@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?

[Guardian]

@Incognito: Not really, plus this game I promised myself that I would approach Adel with a clean slate.

Well, I think in our last game I over reacted to your methods a bit. I didn't hear you out. This go round I promise to hear you out.

Why did you make this promise, opie?

ps: I'm really busy right now, and my one other game is near deadline; plus I'm kind of annoyed at mafia in general (because of that game). So, not much to expect from me, sorry.

[opie]

In Mini 515, Adel replaced in. In her first few posts she introduced some innovative approaches to finding scum. I quickly jumped on her for being scum. I was wrong.

In this game I was not sure if she would be employing a similar strategy. If she was, I was making it clear that while I disagree with those methods, I would not automatically assume it too be a scum tell.

Also, she pulled out a "STFU" defense that I was slightly insulted by. But I don't think it would behove myself or the town to carry that into this game, to only evaluate Adel based on her actions in this game.

[Xylthixlm]

In Mini 515, Adel replaced in. In her first few posts she introduced some innovative approaches to finding scum. I quickly jumped on her for being scum. I was wrong.

I like the telepathic method of finding scum, myself.
1. Read the game
2. Think very hard
3. Point out the scum

[Guardian]

unvote, vote:opie

obvscum trying to hard to be seen scumhunting.
This vote is good through to his lynch, which should take about six pages.

Could you explain this, possibly with reference to post #s and/or quotes?

[Adel]

@Adel: Do you really feel that you have enough information so far on this game for your models to give an accurate answer right now? What kind of percentages are your models giving you?

Of games I've replaced into, my model has identified correctly 3 out of 7 scum, with four townies incorrectly identified as scum. I feel like I've adopted my playstyle in a way that allowes me to begin in a game without destroying the accuracy of my model.

There is not enough information yet for me to try my model, but with opie so obviously scum I don't need to. I'll do it tomorrow, after today's accurate lynch of opie.

[opie]

Adel will you consider no other candidates for a lynch today?

[Adel]

Guardian: no post #'s, but I copied the entire posts:

vote: pickmegenius

Why? because I said so!

And. Because Adel has too many votes already...

communicates to his scum buddies that he is apt to chase the later votes on any wagon

Unvote: pick

em

genius

Post 64 made me laugh after reading dictionary definitions. Ugh. But to throw in my two cents, when I read your post Xylthixlm I read it with arbitrary meaning 3b. Why? Because when I use that word, that how I most often use it. Enter "define:arbitrary" into google and the majority of the results are similar.

Guardian driving Ergo's wagon makes me uneasy. You demand everyone give there thoughts on Erg0 and explain why they don't think he is worthy of a vote? I'm not voting for him because I haven't heard a case made against him. He threatened us with a day vig? Really? Right now to me this wagon is random bordering on suspicious.

Vote: Guardian
FOS: Oman and Adel

a wagon that is "random bordering on suspicious" is enough reason for a vote?

First, I do appreciate the fact that you are trying to get some serious discussion. I felt like "arbitrary" was starting to distract the town.

I said that you were driving Erg0's wagon because you are voting for and then asked everyone for their thoughts. To me it had an air of: "Those of you not voting for Erg0, explain yourself" which just doesn't sit right with me. Especially when I don't think Erg0 has done anything to deserve an serious wagon. If its not a serious wagon then its a random wagon, and I don't think its necessary for me to explain why I'm not on a random wagon. I think it's incumbent upon those on a random bandwagon to explain why they are not the other way around. Thus, my vote for you.

Additionally you swithed you vote to Erg0 without any explanation. At first I thought it was random, but I'm starting to get the sense that it wasn't. And lastly, in Post 43, you questioned Erg0's threats of DayVig. The statements you are using to implicate Erg0 are to me statement made tongue in cheek. I didn't give the much credit. It makes me wonder why you do, and why you said nothing of Adel or Oman's Day Vigs.

I guess I just don't understand why Erg0 is being targetted here, which makes me suspicious of those voting for him. I will say that looking back Adel's vote for him has was her first only vote thus far, so perhaps I was a bit hasty with my FOS at her, but something about this just doesn't sit right.

Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon. You got very happy at having the opportunity to "prove" your pro-town credentials, and then you overreached with this post. If you were better at playing scum you would've waited a while longer before attacking the wagon for being baseless, instead to tried to create an early impression in other players that if Erg0 isn't scum, than Guardian or Oman or maybe even I must be.

To clarify, I have accrued two votes and one fos for:

Taking this game seriously

Taking comments in this game seriously

Wanting others to take this game seriously

Asking others to play this game

Is this a significant mis-categorization? Is there something I've missed?

Actually, those are none of the reason that I voted for you. Seriously.

So a significant mis-categorization? Yes.

Here is why I'm voting for you:

First: (a) you swithched you for to Erg0 without explanation [Post 24]; then, (b) when asked to explain, you reply that it's because of Erg0's "hang" comments, also because he's a "secret Aussie" Post 27; and, (c) you wonder why Erg0 is threatening with day vigs, then comment that he is the best place for votes (Post 43). My initial thoughts were just random stage chatter.

But then, you ask everyone to comment on Erg0's wagon [Post 65]. Which suggested to me that the above comments were serious. I didn't feel (and still don't) that what Erg0 did was worthy of a serious vote. And if they aren't all that serious, then I don't think I should have to explain why I am not on a random wagon.

As I said above [Post 75], I can't figure out why you were/are targetting Erg0 in such a way. It seems suspicious to me.

And now as Jitsu pointed out, it seems odd to demand that everyone explain their stance on Erg0[Post 65], when only a few posts later[Post 74, you don't feel he is most deserving of a vote.

This is the post that really nailed it for me. He is just

trying

too hard to make something out of what he knows is just "random stage chatter". That Guardian made an active post drawing out reactions from other players on the topic of the Erg0 wagon is a pro-town move, and I don't believe that opie was not only unable to recognize that but he also based his vote on Guardian upon it. Bullshit. His vote on guardian was based upon Guardian being a convenient target whose posts opie felt like he could manipulate into being the grounds of a strong wagon, probably hoping for a forced claim.

Adel will you consider no other candidates for a lynch today?

I don't need to. You are going to get voted to -1 to lynch, and then you are going to claim vanilla townie, and then someone is going to hammer you, and we'll continue on to day 2 and a pretty probable victory thanks to your errors as scum.

[Jitsu]

Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon.

@Adel: I will consider your case on Opie, now that you've actually presented one. Some questions:

I can follow your logic and see why you think Guardian is pro-town. Obviously you will assert that you are pro-town. So why do you think Oman is pro-town?

What is your estimation of the chance that Opie is scum?

Also, have you ever pretented to use your models when playing as scum to get a town player mislynched? If that scenario hasn't happened yet, would you do so in the future?

[Adel]

Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon.

@Adel: I will consider your case on Opie, now that you've actually presented one. Some questions:

I can follow your logic and see why you think Guardian is pro-town. Obviously you will assert that you are pro-town. So why do you think Oman is pro-town?

What is your estimation of the chance that Opie is scum?

Also, have you ever pretented to use your models when playing as scum to get a town player mislynched? If that scenario hasn't happened yet, would you do so in the future?

1. I'd expect Oman to behave otherwise if he were scum.
2. better than 50%
3. No. I haven't been scum in a long time.
4. Yes I might, once my models have a reputation for being accurate. I mostly plan on using them to inform me even if I don't share the results with the town. In Illustrated mafia I used my model, and didn't tell anyone. When I use them in this game, I don't know if I'll tell anyone. It is starting to seem like the best way to use the algorithm is to do it in secret, and then look for more traditional evidence that would support the case.

[Jitsu]

1. I'd expect Oman to behave otherwise if he were scum.

Do you mean that he wouldn't have cited such an obviously weak case for a vote on Erg0 and instead would have come up something more believable?

[Adel]

I guess my reason are more intuitive than anything, but Oman's posts so far just make sense to me. If you are town and you are trying to get things going, that is one way to play that I find perfectly acceptable.

[Erg0]

One thing to bear in mind, for those who aren't aware, is that Oman and I have played together alot. And I mean

a lot

. I don't think that there's been a time since the middle of last year that we haven't been in at least one game together.

As such, you should read his posts towards me (and mine towards him) with that in mind - for instance, when he asked me whether I really had a dayvig I expect that he knew that I wouldn't confirm or deny it. I believe that it was just a setup for him to try and add some credibility to his own faked dayvig.

I find him pretty neutral right now, leaning towards town. This is, naturally, subject to change at any time.

[TrustGossip]

I guess my reason are more intuitive than anything, but Oman's posts so far just make sense to me. If you are town and you are trying to get things going, that is one way to play that I find perfectly acceptable.

Are you sure you're being completely bereft of any of your own psychological associations with Oman and are instead using only your model?

Or do you sympathize with a compatriot that uses unconventional tactics to coerce reactions and ideally scum slipups?

[Adel]

I'm not using any non-standard tools at this point in the game.

What is unconventional about Oman's play? It seems pretty standard to me.

[Matt_S]

@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?

Random votes that don't bring a person close to being lynched. In my eyes the bandwagoners get more negative attention than the person being bandwagoned. Or nice, logical arguments against someone. Bandwagoning is sometimes good, and random voting is alright, but I dislike a combination of the two.

Please link or quote where I said this. No, seriously. What you infer from my posts is not my fault.

Notice how I said infer. You wanted to bandwagon someone to make discussion, so I inferred that you wanted more people to vote Erg0 to get stuff going. I'm presenting my opinion, which is discussion.

I am hereby connecting Erg0 with Matt_S.

Unless I believe in the argument against a person, I defend them. You got people talking, which is exactly what you wanted, but that doesn't mean I believe in your methods.

[Adel]

@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?

Random votes that don't bring a person close to being lynched. In my eyes the bandwagoners get more negative attention than the person being bandwagoned. Or nice, logical arguments against someone. Bandwagoning is sometimes good, and random voting is alright, but I dislike a combination of the two.

And what would you base you preferred nice & logical arguments on in an absence of any behavior to analyze?

Why do you think getting negative attention is a bad thing for a player to do, even if more substancial attention is the result?

Is random bandwagoning really scummy enough to be worth a vote?

Who is more likely to randomly bandwagon a player, tow or scum?

[Erg0]

Adel, I quite like your observations in post 136 but I'm not sure that I agree with your conclusions. I modded him in a newbie game and he was a fairly serious guy there, although he seems to be trying to get involved a little more in the early stages of this game. I'll keep my eye on him, but I'm not looking to vote him yet.

[Adel]

Let me guess, in the game you modded he was a vanilla townie?

[Matt_S]

And what would you base you preferred nice & logical arguments on in an absence of any behavior to analyze?

Why do you think getting negative attention is a bad thing for a player to do, even if more substancial attention is the result?

Is random bandwagoning really scummy enough to be worth a vote?

Who is more likely to randomly bandwagon a player, tow or scum?

1. If I didn't see anything to argue about yet, I'd just random vote. If I don't see anything scummy yet then I don't push anything.
2. Getting negative attention doesn't seem good to me. Of course I don't have much experience with this, so I can't really say. I can't think of a situation where I would want to risk getting lynched to do a random bandwagon.
3. My vote is for Guardian, who asked us to explain why we weren't voting Erg0 instead of the other way around. That's the part that got my vote, not just the bandwagoning.
4. Can't say since I haven't played any mafia games as intelligent as the ones on this site before. If I had to guess, which I'd rather not since it seems people know otherwise, I'd say mafia since their goal is to end the day quickly, which is aided by bandwagoning.

[Erg0]

I think so, yes. I think I may see your point, but I don't think I want to explore it any further at this time.