Open 6 - Nightless (Ended) - before 388

[Thesp]

Only way you can know Pooky's alignment is if you're scum.
...
He says he knows Pooky's alignment. So he is scum. 3 to go.

Who in their right mind would actually think I'm coming out claiming to have proof of Pooky's townness? This looks like a silly attamept to throw suspicion on me.

I don't know. Do you?

Yes, I think Pooky is town.

FWIW, I don't think Pooky's proposal tells us one way or another whether he is scum. It's just the sort of thing he would do whether town or scum.

Really? It's been my experience that he's more likely to make proposals like this when he's town.

I love, love, love the votes on jl2704.

Nightfall is next. Seriously, if jl2704 is scum, Nightfall almost certainly is, too.

FOS: Relyte

, too.

Thesp makes a statement (he knows Pooky's alignment) that can only possibly be true if he's scum and declines to explain it.

The premise of your statement is incorrect. I stated Pooky is town. I may be wrong in that assertion. I don't think I am. Pooky can be town independent of the state of my knowledge of his alignment.

Right now I'm pegging one of Ripley or Relyte to be scum, but not both. My guess is Relyte.

FOS: Cephrir

.

Well obviously your questions made Thesp and I scummy.

I'm not sure where you get your information from.

Vote: jl2704.

[Patrick]

Only way you can know Pooky's alignment is if you're scum.
...
He says he knows Pooky's alignment. So he is scum. 3 to go.

Who in their right mind would actually think I'm coming out claiming to have proof of Pooky's townness? This looks like a silly attamept to throw suspicion on me.

This misses the point. You were pretty much refusing to say why you thought Pooky is pro town. I mean, I still don't really see why you think so, your only reason seems to be that you think he is more likely to propose something like this as town than scum, which I don't think is true anyway.

[Ripley]

Thesp makes a statement (he knows Pooky's alignment) that can only possibly be true if he's scum and declines to explain it.

The premise of your statement is incorrect. I stated Pooky is town. I may be wrong in that assertion. I don't think I am. Pooky can be town independent of the state of my knowledge of his alignment.

Well, my interpretation of the following sequence must be wrong then because you appear to be stating you

know

Pooky is town:

Somehting distinctly odd about the way Thesp is reacting to the Pooky proposal. Not like him (or any experienced and skillfull player, such as he is) at all to abdicate, or contemplate abdicating, his vote in that way - especially since Thesp has no way of knowing if Pooky is pro-town. Unless Thesp is scum.

Do you think Pooky is town?

I don't know. Do you?

I don't know. Do you?

Yes.

Seems clear enough to me.

It's been my experience that he's more likely to make proposals like this when he's town.

And he is probably just as aware of your joint experience as you are, which would make this game a very attractive opportunity for a proposal, with you being the next most experienced player in the game after him and likely to be influential.

Please can we have a vote count?

[Thesp]

Well, my interpretation of the following sequence must be wrong then because you appear to be stating you

know

Pooky is town:

Somehting distinctly odd about the way Thesp is reacting to the Pooky proposal. Not like him (or any experienced and skillfull player, such as he is) at all to abdicate, or contemplate abdicating, his vote in that way - especially since Thesp has no way of knowing if Pooky is pro-town. Unless Thesp is scum.

Do you think Pooky is town?

I don't know. Do you?

I don't know. Do you?

Yes.

Seems clear enough to me.

I'm confused. I asked him if he thinks Pooky is town. He turned around and asked the same question to me. Since when did

think

and

know

become equivocated?

[Ripley]

OK, I see what you mean now. I was reading it another way. I took "I don't know. Do you?" to mean "I don't know. Do you know?" The "Do you" sounded to me like it referred back to the sentence immediately before it, not back to your original "Do you think...", which Mr Stoofer didn't actually quote in his reply.

[IH]

I'm having mixed feelings about the Jl votes, just because of this statement made by Thesp

Nightfall is next. Seriously, if jl2704 is scum, Nightfall almost certainly is, too.

For some reason I'm seeing,

"If he's scum, then he's getting to suspicious to be kept alive, the scum will vote him to look protown..."

What exactly did you mean by that Thesp?

[Nightfall]

I love, love, love the votes on jl2704.

Nightfall is next. Seriously, if jl2704 is scum, Nightfall almost certainly is, too.

FOS: Relyte

, too.

Say what?!
You just love spreading the blame around dont you

P.S. Ive been considering voting jl2704 but have held off because I wanted a vote count first. Is that so scummy?

[IH]

Nah, I personally don't think so. I was considering an unvote myself, but I definitely want a vote count, as I think he's either at lynch -1 or lynch -2.

I'll double check and post here.

[IH]

Alright, A vote count on JL

JL-5 votes (Stoofer, IH, Pooky, Vitamin, Thesp)

Which puts him at lynch minus two.

Also, Thesp, what's your reasoning of FoSing Relyte?

[Ripley]

I'm having mixed feelings about the Jl votes, just because of this statement made by Thesp

Nightfall is next. Seriously, if jl2704 is scum, Nightfall almost certainly is, too.

For some reason I'm seeing,

"If he's scum, then he's getting to suspicious to be kept alive, the scum will vote him to look protown..."

I'm getting similar ideas to IH. If jl is scum, his case is now looking so hopeless that his scum buddies are likely to be jumping on the wagon nowwhile there's still time, to make themselves look good on the voting records. They probably don't even

want

him to come back and defend himself, quite likely he'd only make things worse, manage to implicate them maybe. It's the people holding off their vote, counselling caution and giving him time to answer who sound the most innocent to me.

If Thesp were scum with jl, then his "Nightfall is next - if jl is scum Nightfall almost certainly is too" is a smart move. Because when jl does turn out scum, the seeds of Nightfall's guilt have already been planted in everyone's minds and Thesp has probably established the leading lynch candidate for the next day. If you're going to lose a scum buddy Day 1, you might as well try to extract some value from it.

All this of course depends on jl being scum. If he's innocent I'm sure there will be scum voting him, though probably earlier on the voting list than if he's scum, where I think the scum votes will be the later ones.

[Mr Stoofer]

I think in general that scum are more likely to indulge in "If X is/isn't scum, then..." type reasoning, since they know the answer, so are not so worried about looking like fools if they are wrong.

Admittedly, I have some thoughts on that front but I want to find out for certain about jl2704 before having to hypothesise...

[Mr Stoofer]

Edit post 135 BWOP: Replace "indulge in" with "post" for clarity.

[Cephrir]

FOS: Cephrir

.

Why?

[IH]

thesp: 3 (nightfall, patrick)

[Patrick]

Yeah I get 2 votes.

[Ripley]

IH mentioned Bogre earlier as an example to me of a player who would not defend himself and yet turned up innocent. IH, I don't think that example applies here. That was a player where an initially low level of suspicion built up over time, and who would make a brief post when pressed even if it was like getting blood out of a stone. Here we have a player against whom a very high level of suspicion has arisen rapidly, and it's starting now to look like he may not be coming back. He hasn't posted anywhere since his last post in this game. I think this is the only active game he's in.

Since it's been the weekend and the site was down for a while I would be willing to give him another day to turn up and defend himself and answer the questions that have been asked him, but that's enough. I just don't see us getting a better lynch candidate than this Day 1.

[Patrick]

I think you sound very sure considering the guy has only made 2 posts. I don't think it's inconceivable that a newb townie could have made the posts he did. I'm not saying we ignore it, but I'm not going to timelimit him, and if it seems like he's not showing up I want him replaced.

[Ripley]

I think you sound very sure considering the guy has only made 2 posts. I don't think it's inconceivable that a newb townie could have made the posts he did. I'm not saying we ignore it, but I'm not going to timelimit him, and if it seems like he's not showing up I want him replaced.

Really? If we don't hear another word from jl you'd prefer to replace than lynch? I've been accused elsewhere of trying to move things along too fast but I do think people are shown extraordinary leniency sometimes. If jl doesn't return and we follow that path it would be, what, a couple more days to see if he shows up, then ask for a prod, another couple of days while he doesn't answer it, then a couple more to find a replacement and give the replacement time to catch up.... I know there's an argument for the cautious approach but for me this kind of thing is a real downside to Mafia, and I'm not convinced it leads to better decisions than moving quickly.

The newbie game I was in, we were told it didn't matter how long the day dragged on, that was the best way to catch scum, and it went on and on and on and on and eventually we lynched a townie. Meanwhile the other games I was following were deadlined and managed to lynch scum in a third of the time our Day 1 took us. And those were newbie games, where the number of potential days is far fewer than a 12-player Nightless. (I'm also probably being influenced by a book called Blink I'm reading currently which is full of examples of where too much information and analysis actually leads to

worse

choices. But anyway).

[Patrick]

I fully believe long days help the town. Yes, some days can go on too long and cause annoyance and apathy in some players, especially if they are just waiting on one person indefinitely. However, I think there is usually stuff that can be usefully discussed.

If we don't hear another word from jl, I would rather replace. I'm not ready to hang him based on what he's posted. I also don't think you could call disappearing from the site (which may happen in his case) a scumtell so much as just a loss of interest. If he was actively posting in another games and not this one, that's a different matter all together.

[Thesp]

I cannot foresse a scenario where jl2704 (or any given replacement) is so convincing to townieness that they would be allowed to the end of the game. I think the odds are good that jl2704 is scum. Let's please kill him. Thanks.

[IH]

Long day= Good when Town can bring up different points.

Long day=Bad when the same points become circular, and nothing gets answered, until someone is lynched for lurking.

[spectrumvoid]

Corrected Vote Count

thesp: 2 (nightfall, patrick)
ripley: 1 (cephrir)
vitaminR: 1 (BMQ)
IH: 1 (jl2704)
jl2704: (mr stoofer, IH, vitaminR, pooky, thesp)

7 to lynch.

jl2704: You need to unvote before casting a new vote. I counted this time, but no gurantees for the next.

Prodding Pooky, BMQ, vitaminR, jl2704.

[Mr Stoofer]

I cannot foresse a scenario where jl2704 (or any given replacement) is so convincing to townieness that they would be allowed to the end of the game. I think the odds are good that jl2704 is scum. Let's please kill him. Thanks.

QFT. Anyone who doesn't vote jl2704 is just holding up the game.

[Patrick]

I'll respectfully disagree. Judge it how you want.

[jl2704]

I'm sitting here eating my roast beef sandwich wondering the best way to defend myself.
Am I really scum? Am I really a townie?
The only way to prove any of this concretely is with my lynching.
What does this really accomplish?
You're lynching another player chances are being a townie, 75% of the time.
That's a huge chance to be taking based on my comment, "Let's get the game going and hit the lynch bandwagon."
Think about this from my point of view.
I really don't know anyone on the boards. I've just started to play this game rather seriously since April. I wanted to kick start things just by going on the bandwagon.

Am I being punished for jumping on the initial vote on Thesp because I'm scum or because you're so paranoid to over analyze everything and turn a new player into your next mob justice?

Frankly, lynch me if you want. It doesn't concern me that I'm being sacrificed for the greater good.

BUT.

Think about all the people who changed votes so quickly. Without even clear cut reasoning, a simple "oh that's obvious enough for me, you get thrown in the gutter" comment was made by one individual and I get voted off the island.

*throws hands in the air in frustration*