Mini Game 4

[jesternl]

I've been looking IS, but I can't see anything yet. You will have me thinking about the posts for the rest of the day now though

[/quote]

[Luna]

(mith, being lazy)

Well, as I said, I am a cop. And I now know I am a sane Cop. (Unless I am random, in which case I will kill quercitron )

Not that I expect you all to take this as a sure thing, but here was my reasoning for last night:

My post from yesterday was a bluff, obviously. My real suspects were IS and Wyvern, I was just hoping the Mafia would do something like the opposite of what I posted, to confirm my suspicions. We now know Lucresia is innocent. So, two of myself, IS, jesternl, and Wyvern are lying scum.

Anyway, after the jeep thing, I was initially going to check IS, because I was positive he was Mafia. After all, he was wrong about jeep and myself, and can't see the logic of the no lynch (I don't blame him, if he's Mafia. He wants to lynch Townies). In fact, I'd thought I'd sent that in as my choice. However, I wasn't sure, so I sent something along the lines of "if I haven't already checked someone, check jesternl". At this point, I had thought about it a bit more and reasoned as follows:

If I am naive, jesternl will come up innocent, and if I am sane jesternl could come up innocent if he is. I will then assume that either I am sane, and IS and Wyvern are scum, or that I am naive, and any of the three could still be scum. Since I think IS is scum anyway, he would be a safe vote, in my mind.

If, however, jesternl is scum and I am sane, I will have shown I am sane and will know one of the scum. Then Lucresia can protect me, and I will nab the other scum.

So, I found jesternl to be guilty.

Now then, there are four possibilities for you people to decide on:

1. I am telling the truth, and am sane. Then we lynch jesternl, I find the other Mafia, easy win for the Town.

2. I am telling the truth, but am random. I find this highly unlikely, since I correctly found 2 innocents, but even if I am random, there is still an even chance of jesternl being scum.

3. I am lying, jesternl is innocent. Then you would want to lynch me, and hope you can figure out who the other Mafia is.

4. I am lying, but jesternl is Mafia. I only mention this so IS doesn't go "oh, look, scum mith is leaving stuff out, he must be scum." While it would be very clever on my part, it would be too risky; there are still two living cops, and it's possible at least one is useful and could nab whichever of us doesn't get lynched.

Anyway, throwing out 2 for unlikeliness (even though this actually hurts my case a bit), and assuming 1 and 3 are equally likely (4 is less likely in my mind, but it doesn't matter what probability you give it, since we're both Mafia in it), jesternl and myself are equally likely to be Mafia.

So, lynch one of us.

I propose we let Lucresia choose between us; while we would still need one more vote from either IS or Wyvern, I would hope that whichever is innocent would follow the known innocent's lead.

I know that I am telling the truth. So, either you believe me, and the Town wins, or you don't, and the Mafia wins. If you want evidence of my innocence, note that I have not bandwagoned either of the innocents lynched, and in fact thought the reasons for voting them were idiotic. I have been trying to win this game for the Town; there were other things I could have done if I was scum (such as voting for jeep last round for easy win).

So, it's up to you, Lucresia. Vote for myself or jesternl. If we lynch jester, I ask that you protect me tonight, for the win. If not, and I actually was scum, you should probably protect jester. It won't matter, of course, I'm not scum.

Don't you just love these sort of choices?

IS, what are you talking about? I'm not going through all your old posts, since you are probably scum anyway. If you aren't scum, and know Wyvern or jesternl is Mafia, why have you been trying to get jeep and myself lynched?

[Luna]

Completely forgot to vote...

Vote: jesternl

[Internet Stranger]

Fine, I will spell it out for you.

I had no clue as to who was mafia. It was an instinctive guess to see what comes out. Beating the bush if you will. Didnt fully expect him to be lynched in that matter. He also didnt switch and refused to so much look at Mith, so it looked odd to me. I learned a lot from that round. I think it was a success in the end, although risky.

But... looking back... what role did I claim?

Are you sure?

Look again.

I never said I was a cop did I? I never in any moment did I claim investigations, I dont think I even said the word cop anywhere. It was assumed by all of you that I as a cop. I thought it was great, brought a whole new perpective into what people were saying.

So yea, im sure you guessed by now. Im the other Doctor. I was the other doctor all along.

So my 100% Stone Cold lock is obviously Lucresia.

Vote: Lucresia
Confirm: Lucresia

(Im dead sure on this, im not switching my vote)

Thinking about it, I would have been shocked if the baddies were Lucresia (100% sure) and Wyvern. It would have been totally unexpected. But the mafia is not Wyvern, Mith cleared it up for me now. Its

JesterNL

.

Its so clear now. Look at the Jeep bandwagon. Who jumped on it like a raging madman while everyone else was being reluctant? Thats right, JesterNL. Who jumped on next? Yep, Lucresia. We have a pair of winners!

So again, im the doctor. Lucresia is not. I would still like to see Wyvern's investigations though.

[jesternl]

Now I can do two things...explain in detail that mith is lying, but that will be restating his own arguments, and I assume you are all bright enough to do that for yourselves.
I'm not sure what IS is trying to pull here.. He's saying that he never claimed a role but that we all thought he was a cop. Well look again.. I thought so for a second because I didn't get his second post until after I typed mine. Wyvern says that uit seems you're just making blind accusations, and a moment later you yourself claim you don't need little things like evidence.
Right after that, before you or mith or anyone comes out with a role I tell you I am the cop, and based on my findings I vote Jeep.
My investigation of the night gave me IS as innocent, so it's clear now I am the insane cop, getting the opposite result. But you IS, you just make it up as you go along. You make your earlier posts seem way more important than they are, you say that Lucresia is undoubtebly mafia without giving any proof but your saying so. She didn't consider another possibility because you suggested it and therefor she is maf? get real please.
You wonder why I jumped on Jeeps bandwagon? I am a cop for crying out loud! I "jumped" on the bandwagon, thinking you confirmed what I found before. Right after I found that you are only heating up the air I said that I couldn't be sure, but that I stayed with my vote because switching is worse. So explain to me please how that is jumping on bandwagons like a raging madman?

To me the situation is clear:
Mith is mafia and uses the only option there is, knowing the two possibilities seem equally likely for all others. He claims to be the cop, and I am the bad guy, while in fact it's the other way around, the infamous Lepton gambit in miniature.
IS is his mafia buddie, coming up with a see I ha"d you pegged the whole time" story, based on somebody *not* changing their vote.
Wyvern and Lucresia, being the less experienced, less vocal first time players (No offense) stuck with the truth. Lucresia is the other doc, consistent BTW with my result (I had her as guilty, like jeep) and Wyvern is the other cop.

vote: IS

And I am more than willing to change my vote to mith .

[Internet Stranger]

Thanks JesterNL, you removed what little doubt I had left of Mith possibly being mafia.

Lucresia is the other doc, consistent BTW with my result (I had her as guilty, like jeep)

Thats your death knell JesterNL. I know 100% no doubt that Lucresia is mafia. (and Jeep is 100% innocent of course). So fancy logic says youre lying scum.

In fact, im so sure of it now that JesterNL is also a 100% Stone Cold lock too now.

Mafia: Lucresia, JesterNL

Doc: IS

Cops: Mith, Wyvern

We can go with Lucresia or JesterNL, Mith and Wyvern can decide. Besides, Wyvern's true investigations will reveal the truth.

[edit] Re-read Mith's post. Mith, did you declare Lucresia innocent from investigations or from thinking she was the only doctor?[edit]

[Luna]

Well, I'm confused. I was just taking jeep's word for the whole IS=cop thing, I never actually checked.

We're in an interesting situation here.

If IS is telling the truth, Lucresia is Mafia. If not, IS is Mafia. The other has to be innocent.

If I am telling the truth, jesternl is Mafia. If not, I am Mafia. Since we already know IS or Lucresia is Mafia, we can't both be.

Now, I know I am innocent. So, I know jesternl is Mafia.
If IS is innocent, he is sure Lucresia is Mafia.
If jesternl were innocent, which he's not, he would be sure I am Mafia

Note: case against jesternl: if he were innocent, he would be voting for me

If Lucresia is Mafia, she will vote for IS.

In this very interesting situation, no matter which two are innocent, we may well never agree to lynch someone, even with Wyvern's vote (Wyvern must in fact be innocent).

Anyway. Wyvern, would you please post all the investigation results you have received, so we can see if they are useful? IS/Lucresia (whichever is innocent), would you consider voting for jesternl instead of each other? He's obviously Mafia, or he would be voting for me. I don't know whether IS is innocent (and jester hopes for the quick win), or Mafia (and jester hopes to look innocent tomorrow). Either way, I have proven that if jester is Mafia, I am not, and thus we win if we lynch him and I am not lying.

I am sticking with my vote, but if IS and Lucresia both refuse to join me, I may have to switch, as we can not afford a no lynch today.

[Luna]

Heh, posted at the same time. Nice IS, just now noticed what jester said. If Lucresia is Mafia, like you say, jester must be as well. So you are sure he is Mafia, I am sure he is Mafia, let's lynch him and I can check you or Lucresia to see who is the last scum.

This still takes Wyvern agreeing, of course, since IS and I could be together. You'll just have to look at the evidence, Wyvern.

[Internet Stranger]

I will gladly switch.

Unvote: Lucresia
Vote: JesterNL

[Luna]

Oh, and IS, yeah, I thought she was innocent since I thought you claimed cop. I only checked SE and Antrax and jester.

[jesternl]

Well Wyvern, it is up to you I guess.. look at the evidence and arguments. Notice I was the first to come out, and that mafiascum IS and mith only come out later, with especially IS telling us a really fabricated story (IMHO)

[Wyvern]

What I don't get is this - how come you guys are saying that jesternl clenched his fate or whatever because he had jeep and lucresia down as guilty? Couldn't he be the insane cop?

Well, I might as well be honest with you; I have no idea who's who anymore. I have been over the evidence and the rantings and ravings, but there are so many contradictions it's sickening.

I will

vote: IS

for the time being to see what lucresia does. What she does will clear some things up for me.

[quercitron]

VOTE COUNT:

jesternl: 2 (mith, IS)
IS: 2 (jesternl, Wyvern)

Not voting: Lucresia.


I will require

CONFIRM VOTES

. Just use the word confirm in front of vote, and you'll be fine.

As of now, no votes are confirmed. A player will be lynched IFF they have three or more confirmed votes.

q

[Lucresia]

Hmm, well now I really am rather confused. Well I know I am a doctor so that easily tells me one mafia member (IS) but...who is the other? I was thinking that it is probably Jesternl. Since I know however that it is IS without a doubt I will vote for him, but Wyvern, could you post some of your investigations? For right now I will

Vote:IS

FOS:Jesternl

[Lucresia]

Hmm snuck in there and posted before me..hehe. Well then I know for sure I can confirm this vote. I still would like to see Wyvern's investigations. I am curious if she has found anything herself on Jesternl.

Confirm Vote:IS

[Internet Stranger]

OMFGC! Wyvern! What are you doing?!? I was afraid you would screw it up and let the mafia win, but I still have faith in you.

First off, if you are confused, what are you doing throwing votes around? Especially game deciding votes like that?

Are you not a cop? Didnt you not check up on people at night? Doesnt that tell you what kind of cop you are? What were your investigations? Who did you check?

Confirm Vote: JesterNL

The mafia are Lucresia and JesterNL, im dead sure on this. I showed you the proof, Mith showed you proof. You can validate the comments yourself. Wyvern, you are the key! Dont be confused, sack up and look at the evidence!

[Lucresia]

What evidence about me? I am a bit confused about that considering there is nothing against me. This just shows that IS is pure mafia scum. Wyvern look back at the posts. Decide for yourself. But if you have any info on anyone I definatly would like to see it.

[Internet Stranger]

Wyvern has all the answers, but cant figure out the block puzzle. She is probably sitting there trying to fit the triangle in the circle slot.

Mith, can we open up Mafia University someday?

[Wyvern]

Lucresia, I wanted to see if you would stick up for jesternl as you have done throughout the game. And how does that make IS mafia scum? The way I see it, that just makes you look shadier.

Also, as IS AND mith both formerly suspected each other, I find it very unlikely that they would both be mafia. Oh, and yes, IS, I am a cop and yes, I have been investigating. However, I'm fairly sure I'm the paranoid cop since I checked out SK, mith, and IS and found them all to be guilty.

Sorry, jesternl, but I'm convinced you and lucresia are mafia. I've gone through the possible patterns of mafia couples, and it seems to me that you are the only pair that has not suspected/voted against the other. Although this doesn't necessarily mean you guys are mafia, it surely tips the scale in mith and IS's favor.

That being said, goodbye jesternl.

Vote and confirm: jesternl

.

[Lucresia]

ok..wait a sec here..how does

KNOWING

that IS is wrong and watching him deny it make me look shady? I havn't seen any proof though about Jesternl. That is why I kept asking you what info you got since you are a cop. I don't want to lynch anyone that might really be a citizen like the whole Jeep thing again. if you notice I have him on my finger of suspicion because I do have a feeling he is mafia. I wanted to know your info though. Now a question from the newb...what is a paranoid cop?

[Wyvern]

A paranoid cop gets results that say everyone appears guilty.

[Luna]

(this is mith, don't know who this will say is posting)

Confirm: jesternl

, Mafia scum.

Doctor, whichever you are, don't forget to protect me!

[quercitron]

With three votes for jesternl, the Town reaches a majority. As they lead him to the lynching tree and attempt to place his head in the noose, he suddenly executes a series of fancy martial arts moves and pulls a special badge out of his pocket.

"Don't lynch me, I'm Jackie Chan!" he cries.

This is when the members of the Town look at quercitron and remind him that this is not Improbable Role Mafia.

Uh...right. So the Town lynches jesternl, and he has a nice stiletto in his pocket, as well as a shotgun (how this would not be obvious to observers, you figure out.) Obvious Mafia scum.

jesternl, Mafia scumbag, has been lynched. It is NIGHT. Send choices.

[quercitron]

Day.

Wyvern (Cop) is dead.

Two to lynch!

[Internet Stranger]

vote: lucresia
confirm: lucresia

I tried to heal mith, I thought they would try to confuse Wyvern on the last round. This game is over. Town wins.