Mini 1634 - English Premier League Mafia (Game over)

[theelkspeaks]

Mostly VLA until Monday.

No lynch is good because someone dies and our chance of lynching scum goes up.

[BROseidon]

I think whether scum kill Guyett, me, or Whiskers gives us more information to go off of.

[BROseidon]

VOTE: NL

[Whiskers]

At MyLo, Guyett, we generally No Lynch. Mislynch and Lose, but No Lynch, and narrow down suspects by one.

Of course, you also whittle down town members by one.

So, before you go out, could you give me a rundown, once, really quick, about why you so vehemently ate Ollie's crap? :/

Anyway, I'm counting on Bro or me, so everybody plan accordingly.

[Whiskers]

It's time to start speculating on scumteams, too. Associative Tells should happen.

[massive]

RA: Tunnels Whiskers D1-2 so probably no; protects Elk from absentee lynch in 514; protects Guyett during his quiet time (but does so by redirecting onto Elk) so likely no on Elk. Doesn't have much interaction with BRO and has almost none with me despite me calling him scum almost the whole game. Most likely buddy: Guyett

(also should not that RA promises to be the lynching vote on Ollie but it never comes up because of the modkill -- need to go back and look in context to see if RA v. Ollie looks like scum v. scum)

-------

Whiskers: Forgot about RA defending Guyett's drunk posting (but saw it in Whiskers ISO). Builds a case against Guyett following the D2 wagon in 301, so probably not Guyett.

... Whiskers, you are HARD scumreading Ollie in your ISO from 33 (where you vote for Ollie) to 60 (61 is your first post after the modkill). Why did you unvote Ollie in 53? ... actually as I'm continuing your ISO, Ollie is still alive despite you specifically mentioning modkill in your 61 so now I guess I need to look at it in context, and you have moved onto Elk. The lynch on Ollie was still a possibility (he gets to L-2 again before modkill) but not with you on the wagon; after the fact, you seem to go back to an Ollie scumread (613) and abandon Elk completely (voting Guyett in that post) ... so can you explain the thought process there?

Whiskers and Elk, unlikely then, again, because Whiskers-scum wouldn't bus Elk-scum to save Ollie. Moves to hard townread RA in 960 (500 posts after the quoted post), but it goes away by 1133. Tries to link Guyett back to Ollie here in endgame, so probably not Guyett. Not much with BRO. Most likely, then, by elimination: BRO

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BRO: Hard townreads Whiskers in 386. Also busses Elk during the Ollie vote (548), so probably not Elk. Voting / pushing Guyett as scum during his post restriction, so probably not Guyett. So it's either RA or Whiskers -- he has very little interaction with either though.

No way in fucking hell that Ollie wagon dissolved without scum influence.

I agree with this. Who's the scum that bounced off?

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This is fun, gonna post this up and then do Guyett and Elk. It's giving me a chance to go back and find little niggling questions again.

[massive]

Elk: First solid spell in the game is to form a half-baked case on Guyett, which I don't think you do as scumbuddies. Handslaps BRO in 586 but doesn't follow it up. Nothing really with Whiskers aside from Whiskers mad deathwish for him. Nothing with RA. Most likely: RA I guess? Yeesh.

-------

Guyett: First to jump off the Whiskers wagon D2 and advocate for others to unvote, too. Mentions a few times D2 that the town should lynch Whiskers despite not revoting. Never votes Elk during the alt-wagon to Ollie, despite telling everyone Ollie was town. Oh now he does in 506. Votes for BRO and RA in endgame. Most likely: Whiskers I guess.

Someone do mine.

[Guyett]

Can we just lynch RA pls

[Mario Balotelli]

Votecount 5.2:

Red Arrow (1)-

Guyett

No Lynch (2)-

theelkspeaks, BROseidon

Not voting (3):

Red Arrow, massive, Whiskers,

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is in 10 days, at 8pm GMT on Tuesday 17th February 2015

Red Arrow has requested replacement due to personal issues. Still searching.

[BROseidon]

I think we NL and see who the NK hits.

[massive]

Still waiting for answers to questions to Whiskers and BRO. Deadline is light years away.

[Mario Balotelli]

goodmorning replaces Red Arrow

Deadline has been extended until 7pm GMT on Thursday 19th February 2015

[goodmorning]

Things I've read: Ollie's ISO, this page

Current impressions:
Whiskers probTown. Also confTown or no?
BRO mildly suspect
Guy Scum? Heavy buddying from Ollie could be trying to deceive Town-Guy or to make them look an unlikely team. (435 makes the latter curiously plausible)

I'll need to look into the reasons massive and elk don't really appear in Ollie's ISO, though in elk's case at least I think I can guess.

[goodmorning]

read ~12 pages, no longer have townreads on anyone

wtf

[goodmorning]

also whiskers is totally scum for 297

[theelkspeaks]

My gut says scum kills scripten to send us on false trails. NK could have fallen on townie lurker of which there are at least one, for lack of info, but instead hits scripten. I don't think he was any more of a threat than anyone else, and he definately wasn't a universal town read. So why kill him over a strong town lead?

He could have been mislynch bait, but instead they NKd him. Something I need to think about.

What??

Why on earth

would scum kill a townie lurker? To be nice to the townies? First of all, that would be entirely bad scumplay.

Scripten was really, really town. I don't know who else thought he was, or if he was unanimous or not-- but he clearly was, even prior to the flip. He was a "threat" because he was clever about his post and reads, in other words, he was a good scum hunter. Let's go back and take a look at his suspicions and dig around in there a little bit, because maybe he

was

a threat to a scum somewhere.

Who was a strong town read? first thing that comes to mind, is to frame that "strong town read", but I'm not sure there

were

any. Scripten was pretty far up there, IMO.
And yeah, he could have been mislynch bait, or a townie lurker could have. You're acting too dumb to scum, but I'm not sure I'm buying it. How many scum games do you have under your belt, mister?

I'm quite liking BBT's 239, although,

@220 - @death - Your assumption of why I voted you is concerning. It shows self-awareness, which is usually a trait coming from a scummy mindset. Is this something you spoke about overnight?

I disagree that this is really a scumtell. I think it's pretty important for all players to keep in mind how they're being perceived. A good town player (though, perhaps not all playstyles of good town player) will use manipulation just as much as a good scum player would.

this is 297, the posts gm says makes Whiskers scum. I'm not sure I see anything in this post that makes him scum, unless it's the straight-up claim that "NKA is only done by scum," which I do disagree with. Figuring out why scum killed who they did /can/ be a useful town strategy, though often tinged with WIFOM.

[goodmorning]

Um.
1. What the hell post are you reading? Whiskers didn't say anything about who does NKA.
2. There are a few things I don't like:
A. The analysis itself is really simplistic - according to Whiskers Scum only kill people they perceive as threats, would never kill a lurker, why does it matter whether he was a universal townread, etc. Why is that a problem? Scum strategy is far more sophisticated than that, which I'd expect Whiskers to know as a player who's been around the block before.
B. What does that oversimplification mean? Well, there's a motive behind everything we say. I see Whiskers trying to manipulate people's thoughts about the kill, I ask why. I think: Whiskers was trying to suggest a push on Scripten's scumreads without bringing the subject up himself. Perhaps so as to look less complicit when 4burner flipped Town? (Whiskers and Kaboose were Scripten's other 2 scumreads.)
C. Whiskers specifically refers to Scripten as "a good scumhunter." Scripten's highest scumread had already flipped Town at this point, and his second scumread was Whiskers (though the hammer made him think Whiskers could be Town or 3p). His third was 4burner. Admittedly I have the bias of hindsight here, but 4burner was literally the towniest motherfucker in this game. The scumread Scripten brought in to replace Whiskers on the list was "prolly one of them lurkers, iunno" which also doesn't make a point for good scumhunting. 2/3 were Town. Did Whiskers feel threatened? Or was that "he's a good scumhunter" statement just another misdirect?

In summary: bad theory, bad motivations, paranoia.

P.S. it really worries me that BRO didn't say anything about it, given that BRO is good at Scum strategy.

[goodmorning]

TBQH I'm really torn here, because on one hand Whiskers and BRO are making more and more sense as scumbuddies, but otoh Ollie's constant trolling of the buddying concept (not only 435 but also noticed in 391) makes it look like a double-bluff. Triple-bluff? idek.

Also, Guy claimed he could post-restrict someone once, did he post-restrict himself or?

both Whiskers' and BRO's reactions to the SS claim make me slightly uncomfortable.

P.S. Resistance to Ollie lynch came from Toffee & Guy hmmmmmm.

P.P.S. Read back a page and roleclaims happened? Pausing to go read those.

[goodmorning]

BRO is Man U? BRO is a fucking Gladiator?

BRO is definitely Scum.

[goodmorning]

On claim alone elk is probTown, Scum vote lender would almost certainly not happen.

[goodmorning]

Come to think of it Whiskers-BRO team would make Flavour Cop (and flavour) make sense. There also isn't a "flavour is irrelevant" rule though that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

[Guyett]

VOTE: Bro

[theelkspeaks]

Um.
1. What the hell post are you reading? Whiskers didn't say anything about who does NKA.

The rest of your post was good and makes sense, but to answer this point, I was thinking that you were calling the post in question scummy using the tell that only scum do NKA (and Whiskers was NKA-ing in that post), which is a tell I've seen mentioned in MD before, even if not a very good one (IMO). I wasn't sure why else that post of his was scummy.

[BROseidon]

I really don't like Guyett's vote jumping this day phase.

[goodmorning]

VOTE: Bro

Or, you know, we could no-lynch.

Um.
1. What the hell post are you reading? Whiskers didn't say anything about who does NKA.

The rest of your post was good and makes sense, but to answer this point, I was thinking that you were calling the post in question scummy using the tell that only scum do NKA (and Whiskers was NKA-ing in that post), which is a tell I've seen mentioned in MD before, even if not a very good one (IMO). I wasn't sure why else that post of his was scummy.

ahhhhhh I see.

I really don't like Guyett's vote jumping this day phase.

...why?