In post 12039, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Almost – the Mod revelation(to me) that his Alliance ability did in fact empower the Mafia factional Nightkill spelled the end of my suspicion of him today. There is no reason for scum A50 to not link up with partners after Day 1 to make sure (or as sure as they could get) that no pesky Docs or BP prevented their Nightkills. And especially after the loss of Skybird. Yet we’ve had a significant period of lack of unaccounted for Nightkills. So not voting there today.
This I will buy.
RR – Given as solo Mafia his Nightkill last Night would not have fail on any Non-Commuting targets I don’t see the lack of kill outside Farside as making any sense for RR. He could have easily shot Mastin under those circumstances and no-one would have blinked an eye given Mastin’s confirmed status. Sorry Mastin but your whole “No Killing keeps the suspicion on Fuzzy” theory is great and all but it requires RR to have made a move that GUARENTEES he loses the game as solo scum with grapes being lynched today. I don’t see that as happening.
This however doesn't hold.
There's not one but TWO reasons RR holds fire.
Say RR shoots me.
Say Fuzzy does in fact shoot farside.
Well then.
Almost50 gets confirmation that GRAPES DID NOT TARGET ANYONE. Which confirms grapes as town.
We also get two kills, proving that Fuzzy has a second kill.
You say grapes gets lynched today. But if grapes was CONFIRMED TOWN because of a scum kill last night and Almost50 tracking grapes to nobody...no he fucking doesn't? Which is more likely: town derps at lolninja paranoia, or accepts grapes as town?
Yeah, this is pretty fucking self-explanatory.
"Okay, but what if Fuzzy shot Almost50?"
Well in that scenario, grapes does get lynched, sure, yeah.
And then we lynch either Fuzzy or RR.
And then the following day, we lynch whichever we didn't the day before, in mylo/lylo.
Sure I'd be dead, but it didn't matter.
If Fuzzy had shot Almost50, then Reasonably Rational would have lost the game.
If Fuzzy had shot RR, then...well, yeah, RR would have lost the game.
The only scenario in which RR doesn't lose the game by sheer POE is Fuzzy shooting farside, as so happened.
And therefore, RR assumes Fuzzy is going to shoot farside. No other scenario for scum!RR is worth considering. Fuzzy shoots them, they lose; they can't control that. Fuzzy shoots Almost50, grapes gets lynched today and then we've got two days to lynch two suspects: Fuzzy and RR. RR loses that scenario no matter what (they can't convince the town that Shiro is scum), so it's not something they can control or otherwise influence.
NOW. If Fuzzy shoots farside, as he did? Well, then.
RR shooting me? Confirms grapes as town and semiconfirms Fuzzy as town. Game, set, match. We have three lynches for two suspects, Almost50 and RR. RR loses.
RR holds fire? grapes is left with suspicion. Fuzzy is indeed left with suspicion. We have three lynches...for five suspects, because of Shiro paranoia.
So not only did RR need the farside kill--they also had to plan around it. They needed to assume that farside would die, because if anyone else died it didn't matter what plan they enacted. What power they would use. Whether they killed or no-killed. With a non-farside vig, Reasonably Rational as scum loses the game. A farside kill was therefore their ONLY path to victory. And a no-kill was the ONLY way to ensure exactly that.
Why don’t you explain why he doesn’t make sense from a Dayplay perspective?
Well for a start.
Fuzzy's self-voting, and that's not an act. That's not bravado done to try and dissuade you from lynching him.
Also, Fuzzy is all over the place. He is crazy unfocused. He lacks clear directive. He isn't posting with any idea of what he's doing. He's going everywhere.
Furthermore, while Fuzzy is a reasonably smart guy, there's a certain amount of moonlogic in his posts which goes beyond his ability to fake. The things he is spewing on about aren't things he would think of as scum, but as an unfocused town make perfect sense.
Not good enough?
Okay, try this on for size: Fuzzy's slot has one of the best voting records in terms of actually voting for scum players. I shit you not, go check the votecounts yourself. Seraphim was an early voter of scum. Fuzzy was a consistent voter of DGB. Fuzzy was a consistent voter on Shadow_step, even as we were mislynching Creature. Fuzzy also partook in the TWIE lynch. In short, the only scum slots that Fuzzy's slot hasn't voted were SirCakez (and Fuzzy had JUST replaced in when day one ended, so he didn't have a chance to anyway) and Skybird.
Furthermore, Fuzzy's slot has consistently been voted BY scum. If you read my posts as thoroughly as you claimed to, you would have seen how many times and how consistently Shadow_step tried to lynch Fuzzy. He was trying to lynch Fuzzy every day phase. Day 2, Day 3, Day 4, you name it. So either Shadow_step consistently bussed Fuzzy, or Fuzzy is town.
Fuzzy quite literally has voted more scum than any other player, and been voted by scum more than any player.
That seems to speak loudly enough for me.