Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!


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Post Post #1200 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:51 am

Post by cicero »

The Fonz wrote:
cicero wrote:
CKD is more experienced than Yvonne by far. Yvonne floated a trial balloon for the town to consider. CKD just went ahead and did what he did. I also see a difference between tieing up a rather conflicted role like the jailkeeper, and tieing up a person who could act as motivator, watcher, or extra doctor if given the right powers. CKD's action was ENORMOUSLY and BLATANTLY anti-town. It's almost impressive in its sheer audacity, if he is scum. This is far different than brainstorming a way for town to maybe have its cake and eat it too. Can you not see the obvious difference?
OK, CKD's more experienced than Yvonne. Adele? Also, it doesn't strike me that Yvonne is exactly a raw newbie. She has six months on the site and six completed games. Also, we're comparing apples to oranges. Night actions and daytalk are fundamentally different things. I cannot think of many bigger scumtells that can occur during the day than a) pushing a scum-favouring plan, b) attributing to others positions they never held (claiming that everyone supported the idea of 'watchers go last' in perpetuity) and c) refusing to claim when it is the consensus that one do so.

Read my quote. Read Fonz's quote. Is Fonz's quote on the subject of my quote? Fonz: I'm not really enjoying being in the defend Yvonne business, when I'm really in the CKD is the play business. There is a 3/8 chance that Yvonne is scum. 37.5%. The idea that I would say she is definitely not scum is stupid stupid stupid. Now, you point out 3 scumtells for Yvonneseer. I see issues with them but she's a big girl she's gonna have to handle them herself. Defending her is not my job. It's more of a biproduct of this conversation. Suffice it to say, I don't see any of those actions the same way you do. But maybe I'm just stupid. more importantly, if you're going to do things by quote pyramid, you should probably address what's in the pyramid.

Once again though, you make a good point. Adele can't use inexperience as an excuse. So Adele is scum too, right?

I don't blithely assume anything. I'm raising the counterpoint based on all the information at my disposal, when others were blithely assumes the opposite and not even considering a plausible pro-town motive. I do that. And I'm not even saying it clears her. Does your suggested scumgroup include Yvonne as well as Adele because only scum would suggest it? Odds suggest it might be raised by people with town intentions.
Where does anyone assume that suggesting something scummy makes someone definitely scum? Whereas you appear to be arguing precisely that CKD's action is entirely incompatible with his being town (since you claim to get a protown feeling from him otherwise).

Your biggest argument for lynching Yvonne is that she suggested something scummy. Why is Yvonne scum for suggesting it and Adele not? I assume your answer is because in toto she's displayed more scumtells to you, but we both agree then that floating that trial balloon could be done by both a town playe or a scum player. You seem to imply, regardless of you express qualifications, that this is very strong evidence for someone being scum. Therefore you must strongly suspect both Adele and Yvonne of being scum

What I'm asking is what is wrong with her case against DrippingGoofball - which centres on DGB trying to suspect her no matter what facts she's using as premises turn out to be false. This is a separate point from whether she suspects me or CKD. CKD and I can both be town, and for various reasons she can infer that.
I never said there was anything wrong in the case on DrippingGoofball itself, did I?

I thought originally you had because of the way you phrased things. What you've done is just ignore her case on DGB out of hand, when she actually made good points. And you've made this weird byzantine argument for it that ties her three separate points together, that I guess we need to revisit again.


What I said was, it's logically inconsistent to make one argument premised off CKD being scum, and then vote someone else.

This is what I've never gotten. What argument exactly is necessarily premised on CKD being scum? Oh this:


CKD and you could OF COURSE be both town. But it's not valid to argue for your innocence off the basis of CKD's guilt, then vote someone other than CKD.

But you've made this giant logical leap off of an innocuous statement:
Yvonneseer wrote:I think cicero is likely town. There's absolutely no reason for him to be scum and prevent a mislynch today by defending me, especially since I was the easiest target and we are in some sort of potential lylo.

You seem to be really bugged by the syntax of a post that's really not different than what Mathcam is saying. It isn't premised on CKD being scum at all. You just hate the words "prevent a mislynch" because you realise that CKD could also be a mislynch, and now you can't see the forest of what she's trying to communicate through those particular trees of language. You are either deliberately or accidentaly obscuring that which is perfectly clear. Yvonne saying: "I know I'm not scum. I think I was an easy mislynch. Cicero, who I know is not my partner, pushed against my mislynch and for a harder lynch. That is a towntell for me." That's all she's saying.
CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for this argument.


Fonz wrote: This is the crux of my argument. For Yvonne's argument in your favour to carry any weight whatsoever, CKD must be scum.

so you argument fails because you've accidentally or deliberately inserted a premise which does not in fact exist. You've simply misunderstood.


Your unwillingness to vote Yvonne, 'preventing a mislynch' is only a towntell IF CKD IS SCUM. My position is that it is not a towntell to shun a particular town wagon, if the alternative is another town wagon.

This is wrong. My willingness to vote Yvonne is a towntell, in her argument and from her perspective, because the path of least resistance was to jump on the Yvonne wagon. From anyone else's perspective (well other townies) my actions must also be seen as me being Yvonne's scumbuddy. That presumption (me being Yvonne's scumbuddy) is perfectly sensible to consider. Your argument, I'm sorry, is not.

So this second premise you suggest is necessary - of CKD being scum - is completely unnecessary. Premise one stands up whether he's scum or town.
No it doesn't. I'd like you to explain why favouring one wagon on a town player over another wagon on a town player could reasonably be considered a town tell.

Townies don't know who else is townie. Her argument, as pointed out to you repeatedly, was based on me going against easy pickins. The premises are: 1) Yvonne was an easy lynch. 2) CKD was a harder lynch. 3) Cicero didn't go with the flow. 4)Yvonne (asserts) towniness. Therefore conclusion: Cicero towntell. Then she moves on. CKD's alignment is not a premise in the argument. Basic logic.


If you concede that it cannot, then Yvonne's defence of you and her non-voting of CKD are inconsistent with one another, and one or other (or both) must be invalid.

I have beaten this conclusion silly.

Now, you have next questioned whether CKD was the harder lynch. This is a fair objection (if incorrect). It questions the truth of an actual premise rather than inserting one that does not exist. You can try to redraw history if you like but the fact is that all the blocks were gently tumbling into place for an Yvonne lynch, and I definitely DEFINITELY could have gone a long way towards offering her a length of rope.


In other news,

Vote: YvonneSeer

With CES voting CKD, that reduces the likelihood of a CKD/CES pairing. I don't see CKD as scum with cicero or Adele (Adele's possible scumtell of suggesting CKD lock up Gorgon indefinitiely, and CKD's of locking up Adele, both seem to be more reasonable from a scum perspective if the other is town). I know I'm not scum with CKD. This, from my perspective, leaves an awfully limited number of options for CKD scumgroups, and a majority of plausible CKD scumgroups from my perspective also include Yvonne (I think Yvonne/Adele are likely scumpartners, but Yvonne is more likely to be scum if Adele is not than vice versa, imho). I'm pretty confident this is the better lynch.
This stuff above is worthy of some consideration. But just as Yvonne's self-referential statements must be dismissed. So must yours. Particularly in light of recent obfuscation.

CKD and [Shaft.ed-DGB-Fonz]

Off the top of my head, at the very least a pairing with any two of the above is perfectly likely from my perspective and would make some sense based on recent play. But I'm not done thinking about this aspect of things.

And now I need to go to lunch. I dont want to stall play so this imperfect post will have to do for now.
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Post Post #1201 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:56 am

Post by YvonneSeer »

Fonz, I never made any argument that CKD is scum. You're completely misinterpreting what I'm saying. I'm a townie and cicero did not push for my lynch, when he could have gone along with the majority who wanted me lynched and possibly win the game. He also has not done anything scummy that I can see. Hence, I find him to be likely town.

This is from
my
point of view.
I
find him to be likely town. I didn't ask you or anyone else to think he is town because of the reasons I gave. If you think he's scum, it's unrelated to me since I find him to be town. And why must CKD be automatically scum for cicero to be town? Why can't they both be town? If cicero is looking in all the wrong places for scum, it's hardly my fault, is it?

cicero's Post 1190 explains it all perfectly.

And, Fonz, your argument that I'm scum is mainly because of these few things that I've already explained.

1. Asking CKD to jail Gorgon.
You keep stating that it is a scum-favouring plan but you never thought about the potential benefits from a town perspective. You intentionally choose to put me as scum in this situation, but not as town. Why?

2. Claiming that watchers should go last.
I'm town and I'm a watcher. I just want to use my role as much as I can, by catching the most amount of potential liars if I claim last. Do you or do you not agree that it is the best way to utilise a town watcher?

3. Refusing to claim.
See (2).
[i]The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised.[/i]
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Post Post #1202 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:24 am

Post by shaft.ed »

OK I'm not at all seeing this "Yvonne was an easy lynch and cicero came to her rescue" line of reasoning. I just skimmed early D3 and Yvonne wasn't anywhere near being lynched. She at one time had 3 votes on here which were all pressure votes to get her to claim. Interestingly enough the third vote was from cicero himself. There was very little if any case being built against her outside of the lack of willingness to claim. Would someone please explain to me where this idea originated and why it's being perpetuated?
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Post Post #1203 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:14 am

Post by cicero »

Shaft.ed, I will respond to that after work. I wanted to pop in one more time to do this crazy little number:

Unvote. Vote Drippinggoofball
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Post Post #1204 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:55 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Yvonne, you stated you were concerned about catching myself and DGB in a lie, why not the Fonz?
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Post Post #1205 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:50 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Thought of the moment. Yvonne is not likely scum. The only part of the case against her I find compelling is the hesitance to claim. The reason that this is scummy is because if she made the kill she has to make something up. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted. If she were the killer logical fake claim was that she targeted Adele.

Fonz's recent vote against the CKD wagon for Yvonne really doesn't seem like a neccassary place to bus a scum buddy so I don't think they are a pair.

Thus I think Yvonne is town.
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Post Post #1206 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:08 pm

Post by The Fonz »

Cicero- you might get the impression that I think Adele is scum too from that argument. You might also get it from the several occasions where I have
said
that I think it likely Adele and Yvonne are scumbuddies. Indeed, you may note that I first raised the 'jailing gorgon' argument in relation to Adele and not Yvonne.

You have a point that you'd rather be in the 'CKD is the play' business. Well, I'm firmly in the 'CKD is not the play' camp.

Basically, cicero, I fundamentally disagree that CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for her argument in your defence. I don't see how her defence of you for defending her has any validity if CKD is town.
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Post Post #1207 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:23 pm

Post by cicero »

The Fonz wrote:Basically, cicero, I fundamentally disagree that CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for her argument in your defence. I don't see how her defence of you for defending her has any validity if CKD is town.
From what I can tell Fonz, after what I comprehensively demonstrated, it is impossible to continue to hold that opinion honestly. This isn't an opinion issue. It's a flowchart issue.

If you want me to not add +1 to my fonzie scumdar you're going to have to demonstrate for me the error of my ways.

Others can look at my posts and Fonz's posts and make up their own minds on the issue.
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Post Post #1208 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:32 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?
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Post Post #1209 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:44 pm

Post by The Fonz »

cicero wrote:
The Fonz wrote:Basically, cicero, I fundamentally disagree that CKD being scum is not a necessary premise for her argument in your defence. I don't see how her defence of you for defending her has any validity if CKD is town.
From what I can tell Fonz, after what I comprehensively demonstrated, it is impossible to continue to hold that opinion honestly. This isn't an opinion issue. It's a flowchart issue.

If you want me to not add +1 to my fonzie scumdar you're going to have to demonstrate for me the error of my ways.

Others can look at my posts and Fonz's posts and make up their own minds on the issue.
In order to honestly disagree with that opinion, you'd have to believe that it is a towntell to shun one town wagon in favour of another.

From my POV, it's fairly clear that not attacking a town Yvonne in order to attack a town CKD would be basically a wash in terms of evidence about your alignment.
YvonneSeer wrote:Fonz, I never made any argument that CKD is scum. You're completely misinterpreting what I'm saying.
No, I'm really not. In fact, I'm making a point out of the fact that you're not arguing that CKD is scum. The misrep is on your point.
I'm a townie and cicero did not push for my lynch, when he could have gone along with the majority who wanted me lynched and possibly win the game. He also has not done anything scummy that I can see. Hence, I find him to be likely town.
There was never a 'majority' in favour of your lynch. To pretend otherwise is dishonest. There was a majority willing to use their votes if necessary to make you claim, sure. The CKD wagon (if he is town) has always seemed like an equally obvious one for scum to 'just go along with' and win the game.
This is from
my
point of view.
I
find him to be likely town. I didn't ask you or anyone else to think he is town because of the reasons I gave. If you think he's scum, it's unrelated to me since I find him to be town. And why must CKD be automatically scum for cicero to be town? Why can't they both be town? If cicero is looking in all the wrong places for scum, it's hardly my fault, is it?
This is an outright misrepresentation. I never said CKD must automatically be scum for cicero to be town. What I
said
was, in order for your specific argument in favour of cicero's townieness to carry any weight (even from your own perspective), CKD has to be scum. Because ignoring one 'townie' lynch which presents the opportunity to have 'gone along... and possibly win the game' in favour of another townie lynch TO WHICH THE EXACT SAME CONDITION APPLIES is not a towntell.
1. Asking CKD to jail Gorgon.
You keep stating that it is a scum-favouring plan but you never thought about the potential benefits from a town perspective. You intentionally choose to put me as scum in this situation, but not as town. Why?
I see the potential benefits to mafia of that plan outweighing the potential benefits to town (which, incidentally, I'm still not that clear on). I expect town players to push plans which benefit town, and scum players to push plans which benefit scum, more often than not.
2. Claiming that watchers should go last.
I'm town and I'm a watcher. I just want to use my role as much as I can, by catching the most amount of potential liars if I claim last. Do you or do you not agree that it is the best way to utilise a town watcher?
It would be the best way to use a watcher we know to be town, sure. But you ain't that, honey. You seem to insist on putting yourself in a situation where there is no possibility of you ever coming under any scrutiny.

In particular, you refused to claim, at a point where THE PERSON MOST LIKELY TO BE CAUGHT IN A LIE WAS YOU.

Also, your claim that everyone was basically in favour of watchers claiming last in general is looking like an outright lie to me at this point.
shaft.ed wrote:. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted.
Except that your 'CKD, why did you jail Adele' post makes it pretty obvious that you targetted Adele (because cicero's recruitment failing could have been explained by either of him and adele being jailed, but you immediately accused CKD of jailing Adele).
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Post Post #1210 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:46 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

shaft.ed wrote:I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?
Both of them are voting me.
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Post Post #1211 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:49 pm

Post by cicero »

shaft.ed wrote:I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?
Yeah. I just came on to do it, actually.

I just don't see why you see things that way. First she had three votes. One of them was mine. Calling them pressure votes doesn't make them not votes. that's a wagon I definitely could have run with as scum.

Dripping Goofball had made a lengthy case against her and said she planned to repeat it. Yvonne had been ruminated on as scum repeatedly throughout the game by myself and others. Yvonne had done several things that were seen as scummy by strong players who are good at running cases including the whole "lets jail gorgon indefinitely" and then the hesitance to claim. She's also an easier target because she posts less which is inherently scum-seeming. Her posts on this site since she got her are about 267.

In the other direction was Curiouskarmadog, who was one of the heroes of the day before. His choice to bag Sylar saved our asses. You'll note that even Adele, the jailed party described her jailing as disappointing but didnt immediately pursue it. (She did however jump on the wagon once I turned it into the easy wagon to join, you'll notice. Which to me is a scumtell). Posts since he got here? Over 3000. A guy like that is gonna be much better on defense you can count on it.

So you guys can assume that they were neutral targets but I can tell you that when I decided to push against CKD I knew...*knew*... that it would be a nasty clawfilled battle that I might just lose. CKD is very smart and quite aggressive and quite possibly town. He likes to OMGUS people that accuse him and that has absolutely nothing to do with his alignment. He did it to me in Mafia69 as town. It's just him. In fact, it might be a town tell.

So if I was scum and wanted to go with the flow wagon, I would have picked Yvonne in a heartbeat.
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Post Post #1212 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Post by cicero »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?
Both of them are voting me.
The girl made some good points on you, DGB. How do you justify standing behind a case that had been proven demonstrably false following the deaths of Gorgon and Mathcam.
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Post Post #1213 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:51 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

The Fonz wrote:I expect town players to push plans which benefit town, and scum players to push plans which benefit scum, more often than not.
Actually I find the reverse to be true. Scum are generally much more careful about putting forth a plan. I've seen numerous instances of townies "throwing ideas out there" and getting jumped on because of it.
The Fonz wrote:Except that your 'CKD, why did you jail Adele' post makes it pretty obvious that you targetted Adele (because cicero's recruitment failing could have been explained by either of him and adele being jailed, but you immediately accused CKD of jailing Adele).
I've already stated I had no confirmation that Adele was blocked. I made this statement after cirero said he couldn't talk to Adele. I didn't think cicero could have been jailed because I was able to chat freely with him at night. Therefore my knowledge of Adele's jailing was purely from my interactions with cicero and had no bearing of my targeting Adele.
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Post Post #1214 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:52 pm

Post by cicero »

Oh and incidentally - the CKD wagon became an easy wagon later. It didnt stay the hard wagon. I shifted it. So no one else gets townie points from jumping on my skinny little back.
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Post Post #1215 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:53 pm

Post by cicero »

Shaft.ed, I'll be able to talk to you if I'm in jail. I mentioned that already.
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Post Post #1216 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:54 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

Cic I realize that now, but I didn't at the time of my earlier post asking why Adele was jailed.
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Post Post #1217 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:55 pm

Post by cicero »

Fonz - her argument was predicated on CKD being a harder road to hoe. Not on CKD being scum. You can say she was mistaken or not the case but it still doesnt make CKD being scum a necessary premise. You're just wrong on this one.
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Post Post #1218 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:58 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

cicero wrote:
DrippingGoofball wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?
Both of them are voting me.
The girl made some good points on you, DGB. How do you justify standing behind a case that had been proven demonstrably false following the deaths of Gorgon and Mathcam.
The death of mathcam erodes only the smaller part of the case I made yesterday. I reckon.

BUT - The way she sorta pushed Gorgon at the beginning of the day, then sorta tried to save his ass (jail him everyday), then sorta didn't show up for the lynch, then didn't vote for Gorgon at all - VERY SCUMMY. Makes me think she was Mafia, afraid that Gorgon might turn up town. None of that has been "demonstrated" to be false. Besides, that's my interpretation of what I saw. She might put a different spin on it. And I don't like that she had to be pushed to claim today. It's a scumtell in my book. It's quite rare for a townie to hesitate, unless they are doctors. But this is smalltown... so stalling the claim is *probably* an even bigger scumtell.
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Post Post #1219 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:01 pm

Post by cicero »

Re you in 1216: cool. gotcha

Re this below, your 1205 this is a very good observation.

shaft.ed wrote:Thought of the moment. Yvonne is not likely scum. The only part of the case against her I find compelling is the hesitance to claim. The reason that this is scummy is because if she made the kill she has to make something up. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted. If she were the killer logical fake claim was that she targeted Adele.

Fonz's recent vote against the CKD wagon for Yvonne really doesn't seem like a neccassary place to bus a scum buddy so I don't think they are a pair.

Thus I think Yvonne is town.
Please note though that this doesn't make Yvonne town. It just makes her not the shooter. And yes, wipes out that scumtell and therefore weakens the case against her. But she could still be scum doing what she should be doing as a townie.
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Post Post #1220 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:04 pm

Post by cicero »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
cicero wrote:
DrippingGoofball wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?
Both of them are voting me.
The girl made some good points on you, DGB. How do you justify standing behind a case that had been proven demonstrably false following the deaths of Gorgon and Mathcam.
The death of mathcam erodes only the smaller part of the case I made yesterday. I reckon.

BUT - The way she sorta pushed Gorgon at the beginning of the day, then sorta tried to save his ass (jail him everyday), then sorta didn't show up for the lynch, then didn't vote for Gorgon at all - VERY SCUMMY. Makes me think she was Mafia, afraid that Gorgon might turn up town. None of that has been "demonstrated" to be false. Besides, that's my interpretation of what I saw. She might put a different spin on it. And I don't like that she had to be pushed to claim today. It's a scumtell in my book. It's quite rare for a townie to hesitate, unless they are doctors. But this is smalltown... so stalling the claim is *probably* an even bigger scumtell.
Gotcha. Yvonne claims you're dreamin' it up. You two should have a conversation.

Who else is scummy up in here now, after all you've seen there's been a lot of stuff said. Me obviously for taking Yvonne's part. Anyone or anything else?
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Post Post #1221 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:04 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

DGB your case was based largely on Mathcam ties.

Also meta Yvonne. She rarely votes, it's not really a useful tell in regards to her play re the Gorgon lynch.

Finally look at what she did with her early claim. If she was lying did she take a non-risky way out? Would it make sense for her to fabricate targeting The Fonz in her position with me, you and the Fonz left to claim?
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Post Post #1222 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:05 pm

Post by cicero »

I think Shaft.ed has demonstrably absolved Yvonne of being last night's shooter.

We're running out of shooters. I love it :D
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Post Post #1223 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:07 pm

Post by cicero »

CES: Can you take me through why No Lynch is better with 7 than 8 in LyLo again please.
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Post Post #1224 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:08 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

shaft.ed wrote:Would it make sense for her to fabricate targeting The Fonz in her position with me, you and the Fonz left to claim?
I don't get that part. I need TSQ to explain it to me.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet

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