Well, it's 3:00 am, but I can't go to sleep because I keep telling myself what a <
Preemptory Deletion of Cursing
> idiot I am.
So I figured explaining
exactly
how stupid I feel is appropriate. I'll go down what I think to be a fairly easy-to-follow thought process.
Klebian
1.) I reread Klebian's posts multiple times. Every time I did so, I was convinced he was a Gorilla by his actions, words, thought process, etc.
2.) Thok had investigated Klebian to be a Gorilla.
3.) I sincerely doubted Stoofer would give a Space Monkey investigative immunity in this game.
4.) Therefore, I would conclude that Klebian was a Gorilla.
Fritzler
5.) This, in turn, continually led me to the conclusion that Fritzler must also be a Gorilla (for his lack of hammer with ample time).
6.) Necessarily, this meant the scumgroup was in {Glork, Dahen, VitaminR}.
Glork
7.) Glork's claim was the most convenient thing under the sun. "Captain" was obvious, "Role-Blocker" was obvious, and "targeting Klebian" on N4 was obvious.
8.) Glork's behavior during the game in relation to Klebian was entirely inconsistent with his "information".
9.) Glork's asking people "are you space monkey or gorilla" raised my haunches as soon as I saw it, and on every subsequent reread. I still think it was a trap question.
10.) Glork "understanding the mechanic" so quickly was highly unusual. He says "lots of people got it", but that's patently false. Nightson (who claimed to get it) was scum, Glork (who claimed to get it) was scum, and Thok (who claimed to get it) had 3-4 investigations, which would make it entirely obvious for him. Anybody like me, who continually reads their role PM over and over, and keeps seeing the fact "you are SCUM" is going to have a hard time accepting that they are
town
.
11.) Glork's attack on Masterchief soured my taste every time I went through it. Very reminiscent of Committee - go after the weak players because they are bound to screw up.
12.) Glork's stances towards Nightson the entire game were entirely too lenient - he continually said he expected scum to "lurk and not contribute", but somehow Nightson kept ending up in Glork's blind spot.
13.) Glork had numerous interactions with Nightson on Day One (which both Ibaesha and myself noticed immediately).
Nightson/VitaminR
14.) Nightson was completely useless the entire game. The only notable thing about him whatsoever were his ties to Glork.
15.) VitaminR replaced into the game being as wishy-washy towards Glork as humanly possible. I noted this immediately, in that if he were scum, that would be exactly what type of play I would expect.
16.) VitaminR's catch-phrase of the game was "you haven't presented a logical argument against me", which is something I can sympathize with, but that doesn't in any way make him
less
likely to be scum or somehow
make
him town.
Dahen
17.) I believed Dahen's bread-crumbs were legitimate, which in turn led me to one of three conclusions.
-> A.) Dahen was a Gorilla
-> B.) Dahen was a Space Monkey Traitor
-> C.) The Space Monkeys were given the Gorilla role PM
18.) A Space Monkey Traitor seemed horribly incongruous with this game in particular to the point where I doubted it, but still had to keep it in the back of my mind as a possibility.
19.) After the "flavor" discussion, I was convinced that the Space Monkeys must have been given the Gorilla Town PM (since by that time it became clear that everybody could claim "flavor", or at the very least, would be able to piggy-back on previously claimed flavor). I unfortunately also figured that this meant they had been given the PM at the
beginning
of the game, since I did not think Stoofer was the type of Mod who would interfere with games once they have already run.*
Where Things Started Going Wrong
20.) The thought that Space Monkeys were given the Gorilla Town PM from the start of the game made me double-think my views on Dahen
and
Klebian, since it would now seem plausible for Klebian to possibly make the posts he did as a Space Monkey trying his damnedest to look like a Gorilla.
21.) This in turn brought Fritzler back into the equation.
22.) After compiling voting patterns, I noted that {Klebian, Fritzler} were together on every lynchee, except for when one of them was not voting. Normally I would consider this a point
against
a possible connection, but I know that Fritzler is unorthodox enough of a player that it seemed entirely within the realm of possibility for him to vote with his partner every lynch.
23.) Fritzler's lack of hammer on Klebian on D7, then, became all the more significant.
24.) The biggest completely in-game factor was by far the lack of nightkill on N4.** I had figured that Masterchief was indeed a Back-Up Cop for Thok, so there was currently no explanation on the table for why there would not have been a kill.
25.) The only possible explanations I could really think of were:
-> A.) Successful Doctor Protection
-> B.) Successful Role-Blocking
-> C.) Unnightkillable Role
-> D.) Space Monkeys recruited a Traitor (i.e. Dahen)
-> E.) Something I was not considering (which it turned out to be)
26.) A purposeful "No Kill" was
completely
out of the question. No self-respecting scum-group would
ever
send in a No-Kill when there is a claimed Cop alive - it would always be better to at least take a shot at the Cop, and even if it is blocked, the town will see the exact same result: a lack of a kill.
27.) I knew that nobody in the game was a Doctor. Fritzler had already said Traitor, Dahen crumbed Traitor, VitaminR/Nightson claimed Traitor, and Klebian had claimed Traitor.
28.) An Unnightkillable role seemed entirely un-Stoofer-like, especially in a set-up as messed up as this.
29.) This left that either there was a successful role-blocking (i.e. Glork is Gorilla) or successful recruit (i.e. Dahen Space Monkey).
Set-Up Thoughts
30.) I then started to think about types of Set-Ups I would think Stoofer would use. It seemed as if it was going to have to be one of two things.
-> A.) 1 Cop, 1 Back-Up Cop, 11 Gorillas, 4 Space Monkeys {with role PMs}
-> B.) 1 Cop, 1 Back-Up Cop, 1 Role-Blocker, 10 Gorillas, 4 Space Monkeys {with a Godfather, and role PMs}
31.) I then considered the Set-Up in Face-To-Face Mafia, which is:
-> X.) 3 Power Roles, 9 Townies, 3 Scum {with Godfather}
32.) I decided Set-Up A was entirely unlikely given his set-up for Face-to-Face. FTF has 3 scum (with a GF) against 3 power roles. For Scenario A, Space Monkeys would have 4 scum (with no GF) against only
2
power roles,
and
the significant advantage of having the town thinking ass-backwards because of the flavor and their roles. Scenario B, with 3 power roles against 4 scum seemed
very
consistent: there would be one additional scum than in FTF because there were two additional townspeople, as well as a Cop head-start.
Endgame
33.) So, I was pretty much wrestling the entire time over what I thought made the most sense set-up and mechanics wise (lack of N4 kill, Godfathers, Traitors, game twist, Space Monkeys having role PMs) and what I kept believing to be true (that Glork + VitaminR were scum). In essence, Glork's play continually led me to think he was scum, but what I would have to accept about the set-up if that were true seemed preposterous in terms of balance.
So... why did I vote Klebian? I'm not entirely sure. It was a combination of the above ("where things started going wrong") and the simple fact that I
really
like believing that Glork is the same alignment as me. This is probably one of my bigger weaknesses in mafia - I like to
believe
that people I like are he same alignment as me, even if there are things suggesting otherwise. I decided that I could "test" to see if he were scum... and if he didn't hammer Klebian, I could work from there with more information.
I had already pretty much decided that VitaminR was going to be who I was going to lynch, since I really do think the "common denominator" hypothesis was the way to go. My vote on Klebian wasn't really because I thought he was a Space Monkey, but more because I kept having that glimmer of hope that Glork
just might
be a Gorilla and that I was just viewing his gameplay too critically. (Of course, even if Glork hadn't hammered, that would still make it possible for {Glork, Klebian} to be scum together, but that is neither here nor there).
... and then Glork voted Klebian, and I promptly stormed from the room swearing at myself for being such a fool.
The dream I've had about five times now (which seems to mirror the game pretty accurately is this):
Jelly's Nightmare wrote:Jelly is standing in front of a chalkboard in a College Class with hundreds of students watching, holding a piece of chalk.
The board says:
Chalkboard wrote:1 + 1 = ?
I laugh at how stupidly easy this problem is, and wonder why the Professor could
possibly
give me such an absurd problem. Just as I am about to write "2" as my answer, I double-think. That can't
possibly
be right. It's so obvious. There is nothing else on the board... there are no descriptors for the numbers, so this problem is kept purely on a mathematical plain. There is no answer here but 2.
And by that time, I find that I have already written "3", and when I turn to the Professor, he stares at me and then points towards the door, while the class laughs behind their hands.
So yeah.
Screwing this up seriously feels like saying 1 + 1 = 3. I could go on a rant about the town (overreliance on investigations, overreliance on role flavor, Masterchief not paying attention and being lynched, StD getting himself modkilled, etc. and so on) but I feel more like this loss is on my shoulders.
* Further Note: Especially for this, it seemed rather obvious to me that the Gorillas were almost necessarily going to try to confirm themselves via flavor in role PMs at some point in the game - I decided never to pursue that route in the game since I think it is quite cheap, and I wouldn't want to win a game on the basis that scum did not know how to claim flavor correctly. This problem
should
have been alleviated before the game began by the simple method of giving the Gorillas
different role PM's
so that they could not attempt to compare them. I can understand the need to have given the Space Monkeys the Gorilla Role PM under the circumstances, but that doesn't mean I'm particularly pleased about it.
** Further Note: The "malfunction" on N4 actually is really pushing on my 'bastard-moddery' senses. From what I gather, Stoofer did
not
alert the Space Monkeys before the game began that they would not be able to make a kill on N4 (which is a
very
important piece of information). The fact that this was probably the factor which
won
the game for scum, then, is quite ironic.
