Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Elmo]

Just felt like it.
I should be clear, I do not actually advocate massclaim now, I just want to hear if anyone has an opinion.

[Huntress]

Vote Count

Qwints 2 - (Apothecary, MacavityLock)
MacavityLock 2 - (LLamaFluff, Corvuus)
LLamaFluff 2 - (Elmo, Qwints)

Not voting 1 - (Jazzmyn)

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

Deadline is

Wednesday 4th March 8pm GMT.

Still looking for a replacement for Apothecary.

[Jazzmyn]

I am realizing that between

Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.

Always good to have more information from the obv-towns

and qwintz's claim of protecting Jazz last night, qwintz and LF would make for really good scumbuddies.

I have long thought that there is a connection between qwints and Llama, but I don't know if it's town/town, town/scum, or scum/scum. Both Atlas and Llama struck me as town on Day 1; Ythill went after Atlas, Atlas more than held his own in that skirmish, and Llama went after Ythill in defence of Atlas. I would have pegged Ythill as scum at that time, (in fact, I did, and had a lengthy analysis of him written when Day 2 started, only to find that he was a NKed townie so my read on him was wrong as it turns out). Also, I pointed out a long time ago that the only time SC voted or FoSed Atlas/qwints was a random vote early on Day 1 (before you did, MacavityLock, even though you mentioned it later as if you had just discovered it for the first time). I have also previously said that I didn't like the way Llama seemed to be buddying up to me so much on Day 2 (see my iso post 28) and that still bothers me.

As I said before, I can see a SC/Llama/qwints scum team as plausible, but I can also see several other combinations, including a SC/ML/qwints team (see my iso post 28 in which I said that I could see any of the following combinations: SC/ML/Llama, SC/ML/qwints , SC/ML/Apoth, SC/Llama/qwints, SC/Llama/Apoth, SC/qwints/Apoth).

I'm still having trouble buying the current doc claim for the reasons set out in my iso posts 23 and 28.

LF, what makes you think that there are two killing factions? - Is it just SC talking about there being two scum?

Thats the biggest reason, there is one other big reason, but that one really is convoluted and I want to see if I can clear away the dust before I make it known.

Llama, have you cleared away the dust on this sufficiently to elaborate?

---
Reading yet again, one of the biggest problems I am having is with Llamafluff's drunken post which seems to fly in the face of what he had posted prior to that

viz a viz

qwints. Bearing in mind the old saying that "a drunk man's words are a sober man's thoughts," I'm having a hard time reconciling Llama's earlier steadfast defence of qwints' doc claim (and steadfast defence of qwints' predecessor, Atlas) with this one post, which sounds like Llama didn't believe qwints' claim after all. Or maybe I just don't understand Llama's explanation of the drunken post. Llama, will you please clarify whether you do or do not believe qwints' doc claim and what this drunken post was all about?

---
And then there is this:

Vote Count
Qwints 2 - (Apothecary, MacavityLock)
MacavityLock 2 - (LLamaFluff, Corvuus)
LLamaFluff 2 - (Elmo, Qwints)

Just

look

at that. Apothecary and MacavityLock on the same wagon. Who would have ever thunk that? Llama and Corvuus together on another wagon, while Llama simultaneously suspects Corvuus and Corvuus simultaneously suspects Llama. Elmo and Qwints on the Llama wagon while Qwints and Llama seem to have a connection of one sort or another all game.

Sheesh, no wonder I’m confused.

Regards,
Jazz

[Elmo]

Hilariously, the most natural interpretation of his second sentence ("I thought that a doctor claim was a stupid one that would get a really quick lynch") in the drunk post is that he disapproves of qwints' fakeclaim choice.

"Am I on the same wagon as a scumbag?" is an interesting question to ask, actually.

[LlamaFluff]

LF, what makes you think that there are two killing factions? - Is it just SC talking about there being two scum?

Thats the biggest reason, there is one other big reason, but that one really is convoluted and I want to see if I can clear away the dust before I make it known.

Llama, have you cleared away the dust on this sufficiently to elaborate?

I still havent come to any stellar conclusions. The biggest thing that is bugging me is that all of the doctor protects make a lot of sense for actually of having worked. When this is mixed with how SC did seem to suggest a two scum pairing I have been trying to see with my last string of mod questions what the chance of having a scum pair + scumpair/SK really are. The SC goon flip makes me think that two pairs arent going to happen unless its a red/darkred game.

Something tells me I wont be able to figure it out untill the endgame though.

Reading yet again, one of the biggest problems I am having is with Llamafluff's drunken post which seems to fly in the face of what he had posted prior to that

viz a viz

qwints. Bearing in mind the old saying that "a drunk man's words are a sober man's thoughts," I'm having a hard time reconciling Llama's earlier steadfast defence of qwints' doc claim (and steadfast defence of qwints' predecessor, Atlas) with this one post, which sounds like Llama didn't believe qwints' claim after all. Or maybe I just don't understand Llama's explanation of the drunken post. Llama, will you please clarify whether you do or do not believe qwints' doc claim and what this drunken post was all about?

The doc claim is actually why I have some problems. Doc-watcher is basically a combo that mafia would need to sacrafice someone for without a roleblocker. There was a roleblocker, but a 2 mafia + other anti game would basically be over REALLY fast if the RB went early followed by a massclaim. Especially with a tracker helping to catch scum. If its just a trio, I believe the claim, but given that there are things that seem to suggest the contrary, I just get confused again which might be why I was so uncertain in that post.

If you want it more in black and white, I would say im around 80% sure qwints is town at this point, mostly still given my inital read on Atlas. Then again how well it was taken errs on the side of people knowing its true given either past protection successes that anti-town knows of or just something. I keep running in circles over the whole situation but end up on town qwints usually.

[Elmo]

I should point out that other third party roles like lyncher / survivor are possible, not just SK. I really cannot see any persuasive reason for acting differently to a single mafia group, though; the odds of a second scum killing group (SK, mafia) not killing in two nights is low.

[MacavityLock]

Also, I pointed out a long time ago that the only time SC voted or FoSed Atlas/qwints was a random vote early on Day 1 (before you did, MacavityLock, even though you mentioned it later as if you had just discovered it for the first time).

You're refering to my iso 71? No, I was aware of it. I was just bringing this point up again as part of SC -> Atlas interactions that suggest that qwintz might be scum.

As I said before, I can see a SC/Llama/qwints scum team as plausible, but I can also see several other combinations, including a SC/ML/qwints team (see my iso post 28 in which I said that I could see any of the following combinations: SC/ML/Llama, SC/ML/qwints , SC/ML/Apoth, SC/Llama/qwints, SC/Llama/Apoth, SC/qwints/Apoth).

This is kind of lazy, to be honest. You took the 4 people at the top of your list and are taking all possible combinations. I'm not sure how this analysis is helpful in any way. That is, it's equivalent to saying "My top 4 are qwintz, LF, Apoth, and ML." This analysis is much more helpful if you can narrow this list down. For example, I personally doubt that qwintz and Apoth are buddies.

Hilariously, the most natural interpretation of his second sentence ("I thought that a doctor claim was a stupid one that would get a really quick lynch") in the drunk post is that he disapproves of qwints' fakeclaim choice.

I interpreted it as a simpler "I am suprised that people believed qwintz." Given LF's continued town-read on qwintz, we can probably amend the above to "pleasantly surprised." This just speaks more to the qwintz-LF connection.

----

"Am I on the same wagon as a scumbag?" is an interesting question to ask, actually.

Which is why I'm very interested to hear what Apoth's replacement says.

----

I really cannot see any persuasive reason for acting differently to a single mafia group, though; the odds of a second scum killing group (SK, mafia) not killing in two nights is low.

Minor confusion on what you mean here. Are you saying that there's not much of a reason for the town to act differently to how we would act given a single mafia group? If so, I agree.

----

Doc-watcher is basically a combo that mafia would need to sacrafice someone for without a roleblocker. There was a roleblocker, but a 2 mafia + other anti game would basically be over REALLY fast if the RB went early followed by a massclaim. Especially with a tracker helping to catch scum.

Interesting point, and does make me that much less likely to believe the doc claim. However, I'm wondering if reading too much into this is playing outguess-the-mod.

I should be clear, I do not actually advocate massclaim now, I just want to hear if anyone has an opinion.

Against, for the moment.

[qwints]

I'm just posting to note that I was gone for the last three days - the hotel I was at didn't have free internet. I'll re-read as soon as I get the chance and post.

[Corvuus]

sorry, got distracted with other games and things.

For my reasoning on massclaiming, it is simple.

What do we gain versus what do we lose?

If it outs town roles then it is 'lose' but at this point, I simply think all the town power roles are already out there.
We've already got a doc, a watcher and a tracker. It isn't that likely that there is another power role and if there 'is' then that is a useful point of discussion simply because a 4th power role existing doesn't really fit the setup and (if they breadcrumbed or something) could give us cause to rexamine qwints again. If there really are no more town power roles, then everyone is simply going to claim 'townie'.

We don't out anything (thus don't 'lose' anything) but we may gain something just depending on what happens. Or it could be a complete waste of time. I just don't see how it could go badly for town at this point.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jazz: My 'suspicion' of Llama is just over his 'drunken' post that seem like another person. I don't know why he has me as scum with ML or why he said he is naive if somehow I am not scum with ML. So I would like a 'non-drunken' response to that. I also don't get Llama's recent post about SC's goon flip when SC was RB, etc. and the setup speculation... bleh.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It doesn't seem like we are going to get any further extension for Apoth replacement so we need more to talk about.

ML: If you had to pick one player that you felt was definitely town, who would it be?

C

[MacavityLock]

We've already got a doc, a watcher and a tracker. It isn't that likely that there is another power role and if there 'is' then that is a useful point of discussion simply because a 4th power role existing doesn't really fit the setup and (if they breadcrumbed or something) could give us cause to rexamine qwints again. If there really are no more town power roles, then everyone is simply going to claim 'townie'.

We've got an

unproven

doc. I currently think he's scum. If we have another power role, I don't want it outed yet.

ML: If you had to pick one player that you felt was definitely town, who would it be?

Not a huge fan of this question, honestly. First of all, if you've been paying attention, you'd know the answer. Secondly, I'm not sure how this particular discussion is useful other than to help scum decide who's towniest.

Actually, right now is one of those times where I'd be very disappointed if we didn't get an extension. Apoth is my second suspect, and if we don't have time to question his replacement, there is a problem.

[Huntress]

Illumina replaces Apothecary

[Illumina]

I'm currently up to page 20. I should be caught up by wednesday or thursday, but I'll request a deadline extension if I get behind.

[Illumina]

Okay, I'm up to 30 now. It's painful to read about you guys lynching Cephrir, when I'm wondering why quints is still alive. Maybe the next twelve pages will explain why...

(Also, I predicted SC was scum way early.)

[Elmo]

Aopth was town. Excellent.

Hi.

Atlas was pretty townish though :\

[Illumina]

Atlas seemed kinda town to me, too, but on re-read his 157 seems like a forced attempt to start a wagon on mitey at a time when he wasn't doing anything suspect. He did a similar thing with zeppo in his 181, but that kind of depends how suspicious you found zep's apparent fishing.

Most of what I find scummy is from quints, though. I think he's definitely scum, and is probably partners with LF. The most damning part is on page 27: In his 656, quints says that we've learned everything we possibly can from Rx, and advocates for quickly lynching him to end the day. Two posts later, Ythill calls him out for wanting to end the day so quickly when it looks like Rx is going to be lynched anyway. quints' defense in 659 is kinda weak, and also includes a little distancing attempt from LF. On 665, quints advocates for leaving SC alive seeing that he's doomed to die at some point anyway.

Here's the good part: Once OGML condemns SC and pushes for his lynch, though, quints flipflops in his 667, not wanting to be caught in the lurch defending scum once the card flips. Interestingly, LF also quickly changes his tune in his 669, despite having supported a Rx lynch not long before. This is an odd and abrupt change for a town LF. If he's scum, it makes much more sense to buss and take credit for a mafia kill (in light of SC being in danger from OGML) than being responsible for a town death, if SC's in danger. After this, note how active quints is in doing unofficial votecounts and pushing for SC.

This scum pairing also makes a lot of sense in light of Ythill getting killed N1: he noted their quick switches in his 671, and suspected quints the most before he died.

D2 also has some sketchy stuff from quints: he jumps on a budding Cephrir wagon in 729 with no reasoning, with a sketchy assist in 850 from LF. Once Ceph flips town and D3 rolls around, quints argument in 862 is that analyzing his reasoning on Ceph would be unproductive, and that hindsight is always 20/20. In the same post, he tries to redirect attention away from himself by initiating a new wagon on Rx.

Next comes the silly doc claim. Note how quints tries to redirect focus back onto Rx in 878, and amusingly LF does some distancing here in his 879. In 887, Corvuus asks quints why he avidly supported a Rx lynch knowing scum SC was on it, a pertinent question. His response in 892 is pretty unconvincing:

On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon.

It was quints who earlier said that SC was doomed to die at some point anyway, so we might as well leave him alive. Given this, SC bussing a scum Rx makes absolutely no sense in this scenario, as Corvuus accurately points out in the next post. For me, this failed defense seals the deal.

After that, quints distances from LF in his 957, and LF tries to redirect attention by bringing up the possibility of multiple factions in 992. Right on cue, quints tries to advance this line of discussion in the next post.

I also found LF's drunkpost (978) interesting, for the same reason Elmo did: the most logical way to read it is LF being surprised his buddy's claim actually worked.

So basically, I think we've got a quints/LF team, or quints is our last scum if its only two mafia.

Vote: quints

, putting him at L-1.

[Illumina]

Btw, I'm caught up now. >>

I'd like to go in favor of a deadline extension, too, so we can take the time we need. This could be a lylo situation if we have 3 mafia, if I'm not mistaken.

[Elmo]

Curious what you think of Macavity.

[MacavityLock]

So basically, I think we've got a quints/LF team, or quints is our last scum if its only two mafia.

Vote: quints

, putting him at L-1.

Sadly, no. You're only confirming Apoth's L-2 vote on qwintz.

Curious what you think of Macavity.

Me too :}

[qwints]

I find it rather bizarre that my vote on SC makes me seem like obv_scum. Without my action, a SC lynch is significantly less likely. YThill was dead set against lynching SC, which is why he thought I was scum. I knew SC was scum and I helped lynch him without outing myself as doc. My earlier claims about not wanting to lynch the claimed doc were designed so that scum would not think I was the doc.

LF's speculation that I have blocked two kills is curious. That seems quite unlikely, and it could mean that LF knows something we don't.

I don't like illumina characterizing my doc claim as silly, I was clearly the most likely to be lynched and had a majority that had me as their chief suspect.

Given the situation, I want a mass claim. There are almost certainly no other power roles, and the efforts to lynch me need to be shown for what they are. A doc should have counterclaimed by this point.

I want LF to go first.

[Jazzmyn]

Btw, I'm caught up now. >>

I'd like to go in favor of a deadline extension, too, so we can take the time we need. This could be a lylo situation if we have 3 mafia, if I'm not mistaken.

It is good of you to sub in at this late stage, Illumina, so thank you.

Curious what you think of Macavity.

Good question, that, but I am also curious what s/he (no gender indicated in the profile) thinks of everyone else, too.

Regards,
Jazz

[Corvuus]

Hi Illumina,

Thanks for replacing in so late.

I don't know if mod will grant it (again) but I favor a deadline extension.

----------------------------------------

As for Qwints' doc claim:

There are parts I don't like but the part that has me leaning on Qwints doc claim being real is from Atlas-town reads and from Ythill-Atlas comment on SC's doc claim. SC fake claims doc. Ythill says "no fool doctor counterclaim him", and Atlas agrees with Ythill in a phrasing that makes me think it is possible (or it could be scum glad that a real doc won't cc his buddy... hm) that Atlas (assuming town and doc) would choose not to counterclaim. Atlas then leaves SC alone (and there is interaction between Atlas-Ythill) and I can't tell what Atlas is doing or thinking about SC and then he gets replaced by Qwints.

The whole problem I've had (or at least I tried to beat Qwints on the head with for a response) is that Qwints replaces in, gets his role (assume doc for now) and then he immediately posts #2 and #4 (from his posts in isolation) that show that if he is doc, he isn't going to cc right then but 'knows' SC is scum, and that from his 'quick reread' he is comfortable with going after Apoth as a scum being bussed by SC. Post#6 would have helped Qwints out (due to the word inoculate against doc claim) but he stated that he never breadcrumbed or anything. ... hmm.
----------------------------

.... ok, Qwints: I don't like your most recent post #81. Maybe it is just your grammar or confusion in wording, but almost every sentence you said is wrong or weird. To highlight a few.

- SC's lynch is not to your credit, if anyone it is to OGML. If you had not switched your vote over, SC still could/would have been lynched.

- It isn't your vote for SC that made you look obv scum. It was the quickness of the vote flop to what you just said a scant 2 minutes before.

- "I don't like Illumina characterizing my doc claim as silly....". This reads really scummy since it sounds like you aren't doc but were being lynched so you claimed doc. Wouldn't it be, "i am doc role so I have to claim when put to L-1" or something like that?

- Given the above, and now asking for a massclaim and wording "a doctor should have counterclaimed by now". Seriously, if you are doc, then THERE SHOULD BE NO OTHER DOC. Unless you somehow suspect that scum are going to counterclaim you? How does massclaiming "help" you or your position? I'm against massclaiming now simply because it seems like you aren't a doc, want to massclaim to rolehunt, etc. etc.

Unvote, vote Qwints

. Thats L-1 with deadline coming. I'm not entirely happy with ML but I find your latest post (on top of me re-reading your earlier ones) as just not being right.

Corvuus

[qwints]

Corvuus, what the fuck!?!

How does massclaiming "help" you or your position?

This may be the most stupid question I've ever seen asked.
1) I am doc
2) The odds of there being >1 doc are negligible
3) Mass claim will either confirm me town or id a false counter-claimer as scum.

Mass claiming will demonstrate that there is no other doc. I'm not role fishing because there are no roles to fish. Deadline is coming and I want to prove my innocence. Voting for me is absolutely idiotic if you don't have an alternative doc in mind or believe that there is no doc.

Furthermore, what are you smoking that leads you from this statement

"the part that has me leaning on Qwints doc claim being real"

to voting me.

There is no possible way you should be voting a town power role that you find even somewhat credible at this point. EVEN IF you're think I could be scum, you can always wait to tomorrow. Scum take a significant risk of my confirming myself by a successful protect if they leave me alive.

Corvuus just rocketed to the top of my scum list.

P.S.
I apologize for the abrasiveness of this e-mail, but I really think that lynching me today seriously harms the town's chances.

[Illumina]

I'm convinced I've found our last scum, but I'll weigh in on everyone else.

Corvuus seems like the most obvious town to me.
Elmo seems townish.
Macavity and Jazzmyn are neutral to me, because I don't have a very good read on them compared to everyone else.

Sorry qwints, I've been spelling your name wrong all this time.

Qwints' latest defense looks pretty weak to me, like he's trying to deflect attention onto me for doubting his silly claim. Normally I'd worry that he could, maybe, be the doctor, but here's the part I just can't get around: If you knew SC was an impostor, why would you ever support a Rx lynch at that point? Your reason for it (as Corvuus and I have pointed out) doesn't add up. SC bussing a scum Rx at that point doesn't make any sense from a scum perspective.

Also: why do you want LF to go first, qwints? Trying to distance yourself from him?

[Corvuus]

well, it seems like you don't wish to read or see WHY I said that I don't like your latest post and such. I'm ok with anything you say or do (regarding abrasiveness) and my vote stays.

At the very least, your wording sucks. You say "a massclaim....blah blah. a doctor would have claimed by now". So you are telling me that your phrasing and wording is based on scum trying to counterclaim you (why?) and then you defeating their counterclaim because your doc claim is so much better and your wording is in preparation for a scum counterclaiming you as doc? (why?)

My original view of massclaiming was that it was pointless or 'couldn't' hurt. On a re-read, I think there may be another role out there, and that you are lying. If you are so confident that you are a town power role claim, then why the 'i got SC lynched, I did this, I did that, etc. to try to verify yourself beyond your doc claim and with obvious lies/misrepresentation. And a massclaim has a chance of 'not' verifying you at all simply because everyone can just 'claim townie' and that is 'null' not proof of you.

You either exist, or you don't. Your previous post is crap and your follow up is even more so and I just have to ask, did you re-read (or read at all) when you crafted your response because it is full of fail.

If you really wish to attack my response or view as being "opportunistic", I will just say this. I read Illumina's post, thought about it, started re-reading you (Qwints) again and Atlas after the SC fake-doc claim, I was going through it and listing things down and then I came upon your crap latest post. So I started off my post and my re-read thinking you were town/doc but at the end, my reasoning for believing Atlas wasn't as strong as I would want it to be since Atlas-scum could have responded that way to Ythill and subsequent key points chronologically seem out of place and the feeling behind it is just 'bleh'.

Heck, your latest post's P.S. of "I really think that lynching me today seriously harms the town's chances" is grammatically a scum-tell. Lynching a doc is *always* bad for town. How does us lynching you tomorrow make things better or harms town's chances less?

It doesn't.

Then why the "but I really think that lynching me today seriously harms the town's chances". Well, duh, because you aren't doc but you are scum.

You had me convinced before Qwints but this latest parts is simply not possible or likely for you as doc to say and phrase. So go ahead and try to rephrase or re-clarify but as it stands, all your grammar and wording is currently just admissions of guilt.

Corvuus

[qwints]

[quote="Corvuus"
At the very least, your wording sucks. You say "a massclaim....blah blah. a doctor would have claimed by now". So you are telling me that your phrasing and wording is based on scum trying to counterclaim you (why?) and then you defeating their counterclaim because your doc claim is so much better and your wording is in preparation for a scum counterclaiming you as doc? (why?)
[/quote]

If scum counterclaim, then they die tomorrow. So a counterclaim means that we either
1) Trade a doc for scum
or
2) Prove I am doc.