Mini 1,384: Dirty Dealing (Game over!)

[Soul2277]

Sal, PLs on MyLo days are just as bad as leaving him to LyLo and if we are wrong we never get to LyLo.

For that reason I have to ask, is your vote based on role related information?

[Soul2277]

All posts do far have been made by OS

[killerjester]

Scumbuddies don't make the interaction NS did in #907.

While there does seem to be some pattern to the cards (two spades are lovers, two hearts have post restrictions) I'm not seeing how scum fit into any discernible pattern. NS flip debunked the black theory while GreyICE debunked the king theory. Definitely does not feel like three scum, and it's hard to call it a pattern if two scum just happen to share a trait (Kings if PM is scum, Hearts if one of Piggy/Sally are scum)

Unless the pattern is Clubs/Diamonds being all VTs and scum being the odd-man-out in the respective Hearts and Spades suits.

Can we just have everyone claim? I have enough cards for a one shot doctor if anyone is seriously worried about dying.

[Soul2277]

Kj you're not including the card mechanic in your balance. While it hasn't seemed to help much (and I don't think it's even likely in multiple games for a single four of a kind to ever appear) I'm guessing Sc thought it'd have a bigger effect (and I think normally by now at least some card power should be ready or have been used). If we mass claim then it's fully (as in all cards as well). I'll wait on OS to reply to me before I finish my thoughts.

~Mehdi

[StrangerCoug]

VOTE COUNT

PMysterious (1): Salamence20
Not voting (5): killerjester, PiggyGal15, PMysterious, Soul2277, Voidedmafia

With

6

players alive, it takes

4

players to lynch.

VOTE: PM

You are already voting PMysterious.

[killerjester]

Kj you're not including the card mechanic in your balance.

Scum get cards too.

[Soul2277]

It still helps town more then scum. All those info roles scum could barely care for, unless we have a vig doc is useless to them, which only leaves one hand that's decent to scum (jailkeeper for roleblocking which we might not even have any roles they can role block as well).

~Mehdi

[Soul2277]

KJ how would you feel about a mass claim today?

[Soul2277]

I see you lurking, KJ

[Soul2277]

FAIL

Didn't see you had claimed already.

Kj, who are your suspects?

[PMysterious]

I think this is a mountanious set-up with no PRs other than 1-Shots from the cards (except for lovers and Jester). Well, I think so. In other words, for now, claiming is pointless.

[Soul2277]

A. If it's mountainous no loss to claiming.
B. Any info is good now.
C. We can control kj's protect to be on any prs that claim.
D. Knowing that would mean we actually have a decent chance of being 2 scum. I just don't think we have 0 town prs (and one scum power is known which is card removal since I doubt that's a mechanic that just targets a single player).
E. It's not just a role claim, but a card one as well which syncing things together can be useful too.

~Mehdi

[killerjester]

If there's a pattern, Voided is scum. If there's no pattern, one of Piggy/Sally is scum.

PM looks like a VT from the mountainous speculation and Soul has been playing like a VT. I'm going through my trusty, dusty probability calculator to show why it's wrong to assume the card system makes up for lack of town PR.

PEDIT: Seriously, I leave tabs open when I do shit. I'm tired of people thinking that 'lurking' means anything. A real lurker wouldn't leave their account signed in.

[Soul2277]

If there's a pattern, Voided is scum. If there's no pattern, one of Piggy/Sally is scum.

PM looks like a VT from the mountainous speculation and Soul has been playing like a VT. I'm going through my trusty, dusty probability calculator to show why it's wrong to assume the card system makes up for lack of town PR.

PEDIT: Seriously, I leave tabs open when I do shit. I'm tired of people thinking that 'lurking' means anything. A real lurker wouldn't leave their account signed in.

Just humor me

Do you keep your account logged in? Like do you click on that little box at the beginning?

And we are fine with claiming if everyone else is

talk to you later, I leave you in Mehdi's hands

[Soul2277]

Pm has to be a vt or mafia for the spec to make any sense so that's one claim down. Popcorn claiming works (don't feel like waiting for pm's next rare appearance so kj can you start?). Remember I want claims to be with all cards revealed (which pm needs to do I just don't want to have the mass claim stall for a while).

Pm - vanilla (claim your cards when you appear again)

~Mehdi

[killerjester]

Q of clubs, role name as well.

Then 7 of hearts, 9 of spades, 2 of clubs, respectively. I have all my cards presently.

In addition, I'm a VT and have the 6 of spades.

[Soul2277]

And who do you popcorn to?

~Mehdi

[killerjester]

Do you keep your account logged in? Like do you click on that little box at the beginning?

No, so I presume the system logs me off eventually. But that arbitrary time seems to be significant because I've played entire League games and still be logged in because I kept the tab open.

Popcorning to.. Voided. Just a hunch.

I've given up on trying to calculate the probability because I don't know how to represent dead players cards going back into the deck, but certainly you can imagine 12 + 1 Joker being handed out in role PMs, 13 being handed out at D1, 11 going out D2. At this earliest point to make combinations how likely is it to make a pair to have a 1 shot follower for N2? Somewhere around 3/39 or 7.6%. Doctoring is even less likely since only combinations of 10-5, 9-6 or 8-7 total up to 15 (if you drew ace through 4 on either day, you're shit out of luck). The probability is around 6.1%, though not exact, and clearly jailkeeping on N2 is impossible.

Unless you want to suggest the bastard aspect is severely underpowering the town, I do not think this game would ever have 3 scum.

[Soul2277]

It depends partly on what happens with the rest of the claiming. I just still don't think it's pure vanilla or just roles that are detrimental to the town. Although a theory I had just died.

~Mehdi

[PMysterious]

Sure. I'll claim my cards.

King Of Clubs
7 Of Spades
10 Of Clubs
Ace of Hearts
Ace Of Clubs

These are what I have. If nothing better, I have a pair. Not too devastating really. Its good but not much (as I have no idea what a Follower is). Oh well.

[Voidedmafia]

I am a VT.

As I said, I began with a Jack of Spades, and then I got an Ace of diamonds when SC forgot to give us 2 cards.
D2 I got a 7 of clubs
D3 I got an Ace of spades that I traded with the Ace of diamonds for a 1-shot follower.
Today I got a 4 of diamonds.

I used the follower tonight on GI because I thought he was scum and might've done the kill. Of course, since he was a town lover I was wrong, but I found out that he had protected someone.

PM, The damn wiki is your friend.

[Voidedmafia]

Also, popcorn to Sala.

[Soul2277]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Follower

If we have 0 or 1 prs then it is likely this is a game with 2 mafia which means a follower is like a cop report (it can find out if a player used a kill action). Follower just checks the kind of action a player did so anyone who does no action during a night with a kill is clear (if we only have two mafia alive) and someone who did a kill would naturally be scum.

~Mehdi

[PMysterious]

Thanks. So, the Follower is the opposite of the Tracker. Nice going role designers.

[StrangerCoug]

Bumping over the count.