Mini 1338: Cyborgian Reenactment Mafia (Game Over!)

[Kdub]

I'll let Oversoul finish commenting on the Elmo thing before I go into what I think it implies for your alignment. However, just to clarify, your argument is basically that Elmo would have been on your side in this game no matter what, simply because he was on your side (correctly) in a previous game?

Let's just lay out where things stand at the moment from my perspective.

We have a flipped cop who has claimed innocent results on Oversoul and AGar. I know that I am town. That means to me, there are exactly three possibilities:
1) Oman and Hez are scum.
2) Oman is scum and one of AGar/Oversoul is a godfather.
3) There were only two mafia to start.

Let's ignore #3 for now because if it is the case, we will still be going tomorrow and can talk about it at that point. Hez did not hammer Oman today when he had a chance, so that's why if #2 is the case, the non-GF scum has to be Oman. This means that from my POV, Oman must be scum (again, unless there were only two scum to start). Now, Oman's flip will be informative. If he flips goon, then OK, I could maybe see a GF in the setup and I'd consider the possibility carefully. If he flips some sort of scum PR like roleblocker or rolecop, then from a balance POV, there almost can't be a godfather, meaning Hez is scum.

Now objectively, if you were in my situation, do you agree with that overview?

[HezLucky]

Sure. I am pretty sure Oman is flipping goon.

You are telling me things I already know, though.

[HezLucky]

your argument is basically that Elmo would have been on your side in this game no matter what, simply because he was on your side (correctly) in a previous game?

My argument is that, based on meta, there is no way Elmo would be dead if I were scum.

Please read.

[Kdub]

I will get around to looking at that game you linked, but I want to make sure I understand your argument first. You claim that if you were scum, you would not have killed Elmo

because

he would have been on your side in this game no matter what, simply because he was on your side (correctly) in a previous game? Is that your argument?

[Oversoul]

There is no fucking way I would nightkill Elmo, or allow him to be nightkilled by my mafia team

Not after that game. He kept me alive in it and was actually nice to me when others were calling for my head every page. I do feel as if I owe him for that. I am certainly not a bastard enough to let him last, what, two days? and then nightkill him after he has decided to replace into a game only to play with me (Awwwwwwww....)

You say that as an honor to Elmo and that he is your friend, which is why I asked you about the trust tell. It would have been nice to have this effort earlier in the game Hez.

Elmo would have been on my side no matter what. Why would I intentionally handicap myself just for some WIFOM? This whole concept of WIFOM is going to come up a lot in the next two posts. I hope you're ready

While this part is mostly true given Elmo's actions throughout the game, there are a few points that refute Elmo would have been unequivocally at your side Hez. First, he chose to target Knox N1 instead of you based on perceived pressure from the town. I don't want to undermine your friendship, but that doesn't seem like someone who would always be there for you, especially if he gets scared of what the town will think.

Next, Elmo calls you town for most of his short life, but right before his death, he lists a bunch of reads in which he places you as "fuck if I know" meaning he *could* be swayed to go either way on your alignment. Just as you were when he replaced into the game.

So. I'll post come actual content later. Short list
Hez - fuck if I know

Oversoul, Peabody - town.

Nissani - obv scum. The ant lynch was complete shot.

Oman - null-town

Kdub - nul

Playing the game honorably trumps friendship and alliances, Hez. I see the logic behind "I wouldn't kill Elmo because he would always be with me" but that clearly wasn't the case in the game when he had reservations about you.

Regardless, Elmo wasn't killed because of his reads. He was killed because he was a PR and going to be confirmed as such if he didn't die that night.

I think the whole Elmo situation was handled poorly by the scum as I would not have wasted a roleblock on him when his power was relatively useless, but I thank them for that.

Hez, my reservations about your alignment are that you took my advice that I gave to you at the end of Paranoia Mafia (be more concise and persistent with your accusations/reads) but you apparently have not displayed any knowledge of that advice in this game. And now you are showing a disproportionate amount of effort by overflowing the game with examples of your scum meta and your town meta especially since you have proclaimed that you follow no specific meta.

Not to mention the awkward buddying I felt from you at the beginning of this game.

Kdub, I find it unlikely to be another PR aside from potentially a Godfather.

You may proceed.

[Kdub]

Well I was also going to quote 803 where Elmo claims a null read on Hez as evidence that he wasn't going to support Hez no matter what. Basically, I don't see that it was necessarily true that Elmo was going to support Hez in this game no matter what. Hez's reasons for claiming this seem to be based on meta plus their friendship outside of this game, which pretty much implies that he thinks Elmo was going to not play to win by having that external influence trump actual game-related information. That seems like a bad assumption to make.

Let's not forget that Elmo pretty much had to die at some point. It didn't necessarily have to be on N3 (I was actually a bit surprised he was since the scum knew there was probably a cop out there), but there would have eventually come a point where Elmo could become confirmed town because he could neighborize someone and prove he didn't perform the scum kill that night.

[AGar]

I'm a VT.

I'd love a Hez claim

Are you paying attention? I was the first to claim.

Sadly, based on my "set up Hez" theory this makes you more likely to be town. (barring no cop CC)

Step up your game we are at LyLo.

Just figured I'd leave this here.

VOTE: HezLucky

[HezLucky]

I will get around to looking at that game you linked, but I want to make sure I understand your argument first. You claim that if you were scum, you would not have killed Elmo because he would have been on your side in this game no matter what, simply because he was on your side (correctly) in a previous game? Is that your argument?

Once again, no.

My argumetn is that, because Elmo was the only person on my side in an incredibly emotionally charged previous game, I almost feel as if I owe him, and for that reason I would have nothing to do with any scumgroup that wanted to kill him, especially in a game that is fresh off the one I posted.


Furthermore, any sort of "you think Elmo would play against his win condition blah blah blah" arguments are absurd because

Elmo has proven, based on a previous game, that he can actually read town-Hez

, something both of you are completely lacking.

Does anyone want to comment on Agar's current vote on me, and not confirmed Oman-scum?

Seriously, he is making this incredibly obvious and you guys are blind.

Thing #2 will come today. But the above is a good point to comment on as well.

[Oversoul]

I could see Godfather in Goon Godfather JoAT, but realistically no other iteration.

[Oversoul]

I generally don't like the lack of comments from both Agar and Oman, but they have been doing this all game anyway. Although I reread your post yesterday, could quickly explain again why Oman is confirmed scum from Agar's point of view?

[Kdub]

My argumetn is that, because Elmo was the only person on my side in an incredibly emotionally charged previous game, I almost feel as if I owe him, and for that reason I would have nothing to do with any scumgroup that wanted to kill him, especially in a game that is fresh off the one I posted.

Then I'm even more confused by your argument. How does this make you less likely to be scum? You aren't the sole decision-maker in your scumteam. Would you have replaced out immediately once Elmo replaced into a town slot? Would you have replaced out if your buddies wanted to kill Elmo? Would you have demanded that your team kill someone else under threat of (something)?

Furthermore, any sort of "you think Elmo would play against his win condition blah blah blah" arguments are absurd because

Elmo has proven, based on a previous game, that he can actually read town-Hez

, something both of you are completely lacking.

But isn't this a good reason why you

would

have wanted to kill Elmo if you are scum this game? If he read you correctly in a previous game, and you are not town in this game...

Does anyone want to comment on Agar's current vote on me, and not confirmed Oman-scum?

From his POV (assuming town), Oman almost has to be scum. Hez had a chance to hammer him and didn't, so Hez-scum/Oman-town is out. The only other way Oman could be town is if either there is one scum remaining, or if the scum are myself and Oversoul (GF). So yes, I do think it's a bit strange that he is not voting Oman, unless he is absolutely convinced that the scum are Hez/Oman, in which case it shouldn't matter that much to him.

[HezLucky]

I generally don't like the lack of comments from both Agar and Oman, but they have been doing this all game anyway. Although I reread your post yesterday, could quickly explain again why Oman is confirmed scum from Agar's point of view?

I'll give you a better one: Oman was put at L-1 and I haven't voted and neither has Agar. Oman is confirmed scum from this alone unless Agar thinks the scumteam is Oversoul/kdub, which he clearly doesn't, yet he refuses to acknowledge even this point.

(Common theme being that Agar is thinking absolutely nothing through - but this is all game shit. He just pushes the mislynch-of-the-day)

Then I'm even more confused by your argument. How does this make you less likely to be scum? You aren't the sole decision-maker in your scumteam. Would you have replaced out immediately once Elmo replaced into a town slot? Would you have replaced out if your buddies wanted to kill Elmo? Would you have demanded that your team kill someone else under threat of (something)?

Have you ever even been scum? I tend to have a lot of pull when I'm scum. It's not hard to not kill someone.

But isn't this a good reason why you would have wanted to kill Elmo if you are scum this game? If he read you correctly in a previous game, and you are not town in this game...

Elmo listed that he had a town read several times on me this game. Then he got confused out of peer pressure. This is exactly what happened in Paranoia Mafia. Go read some of it.



Are we ready for THING NUMBER TWO?

(btw I will be V/LA for about 24 hours in about uh... 8 hours ... so I will do Thing Number Two before, let you comment, but you'll have to wait just a little bit for Thing Number Three. YOU'LL LIKE THEM THEY ARE LOGIC BASED =D)

[Oversoul]

Ready for thing 2

[Kdub]

Yeah, go for it.

[AGar]

This town...

[HezLucky]

THING OF NOTE NUMBER TWO

And I really can't believe you guys haven't done this yet.

Look at Agar's ISO.

Agar has voted for the following people in the game:

Oman

, Oversoul, Arugula, Oversoul, Common Man, Elmo, Oversoul, Oversoul, Mykonian, No Lynch, Hez, Hez

What do you notice? Not a single one of those players is scum, except for Oman. AND THE OMAN VOTE WAS A RANDOM VOTE STAGE VOTE. He pretty much immediately unvoted to vote Oversoul.

Agar has not been right a single time thus far.

Agar has done nothing but CONFIDENTALLY place votes on town all game. But that's not the kicker:

Agar's interactions with confirmed scum Oman:

I literally did not twist a single word here.

You sir, are an idiot.

Using buzzwords amounts to trying to look like you're town because you're saying things, but you're really not saying anything, just using the first words on the wiki you could comprehend.

We call that the chainsaw defense. Agar will vote Arugula in that very post. Here's Agar's next post justifying his vote on Arugula and defending Oman again.

As town, there was no point in saying "Oman is wishy-washy and blah blah blah point out obvious logic."

and post 234

You say Oman is wishy-washy. GREAT. TELL US, SHOW US, JESUS H. CHRIST POINT IT OUT BECAUSE IF YOU WERE THE FIRST TO MENTION IT OBVIOUSLY WE DIDN'T SEE IT OR PUT MUCH MERIT INTO IT.

The same can be applied to Oman. There is nothing whatsoever scummy about a player saying "I can be convinced to vote for X with a case." That's simply inviting good town play. If one of you presents a good case on Nisani, Oman decides it's good and jumps on it, there's really nothing wrong with that. If you present a shit case (basically what all of you have been bringing forth anyways), and Oman jumps on it (note that he hasn't), then yes - we're going to find Oman very fishy for suddenly 180-ing on Nisani.

So Agar has spent the entire game defending Oman.

Agar's interactions with confirmed scum Peabody:

Have I said I like Peabody this game? Because I like Peabody this game.

That's it. No, I'm not kidding. This is literally the only time in the entire game that Agar mentions Peabody aside from picking him next in the popcorn claim.

Every single vote Agar has placed in this game have been on town. He has flat-out IGNORED one of his mafia partners (Peabody) and called the other one town.

#1: Please explain his confidence level at the moment. Please explain where you think it should be.

While we're at it, check out this gem:

To whoever asked for a case on Agar, it is EXTREMELY simple:

He has no business trying to be this confident and aggressive after the uber uber uber fail lead on Arugula yesterday.

This case really doesn't mean much coming from your keyboard. Your 'I'm 100% confident so-so is scum' talk is the exact same thing, but the only difference is that we haven't seen a flip on any of your cases yet.

My fence-sitting is just an acknowledgement that I see the 'argument' going on, but not posting about it. It's not much more than someone saying 'I have a null read on...so-so' or ignoring the conversation all together. I'm actually more worried about others at this time than I am with Oversoul and Kdub.
... Forgot to get my vote out.

vote Elmo

Elmo, Were you talking about a literal night when you posted 'I guess I'll get the night to read this' or a game night.

This is Peabody flat out discrediting me for making an excellent case on Agar. If town were smarter, Peabody would be LYNCHED for this.

If you go to Peabody's ISO, the funny thing is: Peabody mentions Agar SEVERAL times. Peabody even asks Agar questions. Yet Peabody is pretty much nowhere to be found in Agar's ISO.

#2 - Please comment on the interaction this game between Agar and Peabody/Oman. [aka. the dead, flipped scum and the soon-to-be dead, flipped scum]

Thing 2, Section 2 - the HezLucky wagon at LyLo

HezLucky (3) -

Peabody,

Agar,

Oman

Peabody (2)

- HezLucky, Nisani
Not Voting: you two

I am just putting in red the absolutely relevant parts.
(Have I even mentioned yet that I was the counterwagon to a scumwagon at LYNCH OR LOSE? Anyway)

If Agar is scum

I give you, LEMMA 27 (Lemma 26 was found in Paranoia Mafia XD)

LEMMA 27

Scum were going for a perfect game.




Yeah, no. That's it. That's why I, Hez, who is not a good scumhunter, was able to pick out all three of them in one swoop. They made themselves obvious. But why? Well... Let's play a hypothetical game. Please play this game:

#3 - Please comment on, if you were scum with Oman and Peabody, what you perceive the likelihood of Nisani voting for town-Hez at LyLo would be

The scum got cocky in this game and felt like they could AFFORD to be careless, because ZOMG NISANI IS A NOOB AND WILL VOTE FOR HEZ NO MATTER WHAT.

They were so incredibly confident AND they did not plan beyond the LyLo day. Not a single one of them was being targetted, the town looked lost AND they felt they could rely on Nisani's noob-vote on me to carry them through.


I now present to you, the alternative to Lemma 27.

If Hez is scum

If Hez is scum, Hez told his scumbuddies Oman and Peabody in the quicktopic to bus him for the rest of the game and don't let up.

Why would Hez have Oman and Peabody do this? town cred!

But if Hez wanted his mafia partners to go for towncred, why would Hez turn the wagons immediately around and OUT HIS MAFIA PARTNERS AS NEARLY CONFIRMED SCUM?

You are proposing a situation (WIFOM - but we'll wait till THING OF NOTE #3 for this oh boy its going to be good) where I have asked my mafia partners to bus me, then turned around and bussed two of them in a row in an attempt for me to get to LyLo against someone with a cop investigation against them.

And it's possible this is what I am doing. And I can't wait till thing of note #3.

#4 - Please comment on which scenario (below) is more LIKELY

DOOR #1 - Mafia are going for a quick win. All three vote me in succession, because they are confident that
a) town cannot get enough support for a counterwagon they will agree on
b) Nisani-noob will vote me out of emotion.

The remaining mafia in this game (Agar) has led bandwagons only on town, has called one of his mafia partners town and has ignored the other.

Hez (town) has been attacked by all three mafia furiously since and including the LyLo day (SEE LEMMA 27 -- MAFIA WERE GOING FOR A PERFECT WIN), even when Hez points out to some of the mafia that other mafia are confirmed mafia.

This scenario has a mafia godfather.


DOOR #2 - Hez told his buddies to bus him for town credibility. At that point, Hez (to screw with the town by WIFOM because ZOMG WHY WOULD HE DO THAT) decided to turn it around and bus both of his mafia buddies in succession for towncred, despite Hez CLEARING everyone except two people, both of whom the dead cop got an innocent investigation on (Everyone but myself, Agar and Oversoul are clear at LyLo) - not optimal, but HEZ IS FUCKING WITH THE TOWN WITH WIFOM so thats okay.

Peabody buddies his scumbuddy Hez all of day 1, then Hez tells him to bus him for the rest of the game as a distancing tactic.
Hez has told Oman that Oman needs to spend the entire game discrediting Hez, then vote him until either Hez or Oman dies.

In this scenario, fuck Lemma 27 - mafia aren't going for a perfect win. Hez is going to do this shit the long and convoluted way under mountains of WIFOM, because he's crazy.

This scenario may or may not have a godfather in it.




They both seem likely, right? Your opinion may change after THING OF NOTE #3.


Okay go.

kdub first

THEN Oversoul.


I will be absent for about 24 hours starting now-ish. I will be able to reply to your replies, and then we will do THING OF NOTE #3 which is really awesome too.

[Kdub]

#1: Please explain his confidence level at the moment. Please explain where you think it should be.

If I were in his spot (and in a way, I am because I don't have a very good track record this game either), I wouldn't be particularly confident. Depends on his personality though.

#2 - Please comment on the interaction this game between Agar and Peabody/Oman. [aka. the dead, flipped scum and the soon-to-be dead, flipped scum]

I mostly agree with your assessment. AGar does mention Peabody more than that one time, but in general they seemed to support each other. Same with AGar and Oman.

#3 - Please comment on, if you were scum with Oman and Peabody, what you perceive the likelihood of Nisani voting for town-Hez at LyLo would be

Not as high as I think you make it out to be. He waffles on his scum read of you in 714, which is the last thing he said about you before lylo. This is the point I disagree with you most about.

#4 - Please comment on which scenario (below) is more LIKELY

I don't really believe in either scenario, at least not at the level of detail you present them in. I don't think that scum-AGar and his buddies would have bet everything on Nisani voting you, and even if AGar does turn out to be scum, I would feel that they had some other plan there. The scenario where you are scum WIFOMing all of us is pretty unrealistic on its face as well, but I doubt things worked out for exactly the motives you described. If you are scum, there are plenty of reasons why the scum may have acted in the way they did.

I think the thing that's bothering me a bit is that I have been relatively ignored since lylo, especially since Oman was giving some indications that he could start suspecting me. I've been pretty far off this game, similar to AGar, and with Nisani's cop result, I was really expecting an uphill battle to win out over three competent players in Peabody/Oman/Hez. I need to think more about why things haven't turned out that way.

[Oversoul]

So many words...

I'll get to this tonight.

[HezLucky]

I think the thing that's bothering me a bit is that I have been relatively ignored since lylo, especially since Oman was giving some indications that he could start suspecting me. I've been pretty far off this game, similar to AGar, and with Nisani's cop result, I was really expecting an uphill battle to win out over three competent players in Peabody/Oman/Hez. I need to think more about why things haven't turned out that way.

Peabody is confirmed scum. Oman is confirmed scum. Agar is confirmed scum. The last two weren't absolutely confirmed by logic, but their disappearing act and half-assed attacks on me speak volumes.

[AGar]

Hez's primary defense is "well I wouldn't have killed Elmo" and "I would have voted Oman already."

I call bullshit.

[Oversoul]

Hez's primary defense is "well I wouldn't have killed Elmo" and "I would have voted Oman already."

I call bullshit.

And what is your defense?

[AGar]

The innocent result on me.

[Oversoul]

The innocent result on me.

Try not to be so predictable, Agar.

Play wise, what is your defense?

[AGar]

Nothing, I've played shit. But innocent.

[Oversoul]

#1: Please explain his confidence level at the moment. Please explain where you think it should be.

I don't really understand the point of this question Hez, but I will try to makes ends of it. Are you saying that Agar as town should be very happy seeing as he would be confirmed town? His play does leave a lot to be desired and even now he is barely contributing anything and any town that thinks a scumbag (in this case you Hez) is setting him up for a LyLo lynch would be certainly more vocal than the one liners he is giving me. As town I would expect a lot more activity and vitriol from Agar. I consider Agar a good player and I know I am not alone in this assumption. His apathy is killing this town and sinking my "confirmed town" read I had.

#2 - Please comment on the interaction this game between Agar and Peabody/Oman. [aka. the dead, flipped scum and the soon-to-be dead, flipped scum]

I have noticed Agar and Oman's buddy buddy interaction and at first I thought this was a friend from outside Mafia (Oman has lots of friends "outside" the Mafia playing forums) and that was why the sheeping and the defensive was occuring. Then I thought it was one scum tying himself to another in hopes of getting a mislynch after death and further clouding the pools. Agar's lack of comment on Peabody while Peabody actively tries to get something from Agar. Although it does look like an exaggeration from you Hez, Peabody does have interactions and admittedly Agar has less interaction, there are still some. My opinion is that Peabody's questions toward Agar about the Arugula wagon are disingenuous and look designed to try and give Agar some more town credit due to his case. In addition, he at first says he dislikes Agar's reasoning for voting Arugula but then later agrees with the push against Arugula that Agar has posted when the logic was largely the same. Almost as if Peabody needed a reason to go along with Agar at that point (to secure an Arugula mislynch).

#3 - Please comment on, if you were scum with Oman and Peabody, what you perceive the likelihood of Nisani voting for town-Hez at LyLo would be

I don't understand this question. Oman never voted you and he was pretty set on Peabody and no one else really offered an explanation to vote for you unlike the explanations used to vote for Peabody.

Unless you mean they were banking on Nisani voting you out of the gate then I would say a low, but substantial percentage like 30%. Then again, I don't know where you are going with this...

As to your "perfect scum game" if that is true, then their play is sloppy and I have a hard time believing what you are saying. Look at what happened to Tierce in Paranoia, she got sloppy once she saw the victory so close and it cost her her life. Fortunately given game mechanics and everything, that did not matter.

I'd also like to point out that never once did Oman *actually* vote you on that LyLo day.

And it's possible this is what I am doing. And I can't wait till thing of note #3.

Okay?

I hope so to because you haven't really disproven this point.

#4 - Please comment on which scenario (below) is more LIKELY

DOOR #1 - Mafia are going for a quick win. All three vote me in succession, because they are confident that
a) town cannot get enough support for a counterwagon they will agree on
b) Nisani-noob will vote me out of emotion.

The remaining mafia in this game (Agar) has led bandwagons only on town, has called one of his mafia partners town and has ignored the other.

Hez (town) has been attacked by all three mafia furiously since and including the LyLo day (SEE LEMMA 27 -- MAFIA WERE GOING FOR A PERFECT WIN), even when Hez points out to some of the mafia that other mafia are confirmed mafia.

This scenario has a mafia godfather.

I'd like to point you to one of the two most frustrating games I have ever played...

Slaxx's Flame Warriors Mafia. In this game Regfan, a very reputable and well respected player essentially had the same interactions with scum that Agar has. His interactions were too incriminating for him to be left alive and as such, we had to lynch him despite his best intentions leading to a LyLo with a Late Miller Claim that resulted in a Mafia win because fucking retards. Anyways, I digress. Just because those interactions exist does not mean Agar is 100% Confirmed Without a Doubt Mutant Commie Scum and the same applies to you, but I have already pointed out the fact that Oman never actually voted you.

This is you also falsely applying that Kdub is confirmed town from your POV for *not* hammering you when he never actually had the chance.

DOOR #2 - Hez told his buddies to bus him for town credibility. At that point, Hez (to screw with the town by WIFOM because ZOMG WHY WOULD HE DO THAT) decided to turn it around and bus both of his mafia buddies in succession for towncred, despite Hez CLEARING everyone except two people, both of whom the dead cop got an innocent investigation on (Everyone but myself, Agar and Oversoul are clear at LyLo) - not optimal, but HEZ IS FUCKING WITH THE TOWN WITH WIFOM so thats okay.

Peabody buddies his scumbuddy Hez all of day 1, then Hez tells him to bus him for the rest of the game as a distancing tactic.
Hez has told Oman that Oman needs to spend the entire game discrediting Hez, then vote him until either Hez or Oman dies.

In this scenario, fuck Lemma 27 - mafia aren't going for a perfect win. Hez is going to do this shit the long and convoluted way under mountains of WIFOM, because he's crazy.

This scenario may or may not have a godfather in it.

Both seem entirely possible and it is something I wouldn't put past you considering your craziness Hez. Although I don't understand you "clearing everyone except the two innocents from the cops".

Haven't you already cleared me by virtue of the one or the other Godfather fact if it exists?