Random Mafia Marathon [3/3] (Game Over!)
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
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Lol! This is why you always wait for the flipIn post 98, Baezu wrote:Oh man, I thought the game was over when Ausuka claimed she was scumIt's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
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It's fine, but it's generally a good idea to wait for the moderator flip just in case. People may twilight troll you.In post 98, Baezu wrote:Oh man, I thought the game was over when Ausuka claimed she was scum-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
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day 1:
2/3 chance lynch town
1/3 chance lynch mafia
If lynch mafia:
1/2 chance of not killing flagbearer --> Town EV => 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6
Else:
day 2 (ideally if I didn't design the setup improperly):
1/2 chance lynch town
1/2 chance lynch mafia
If lynch town, town loses.
If lynch mafia:
1/2 chance of not killing flagbearer --> Town EV => 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 2/12 = 1/6
Town EV = 1/6 + 1/6 => 33%
Mafia EV = 1/3 * 1/2 + 2/3 * 1/2 + 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 => 67%-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
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So it looks like if I were to have gotten the setup done correctly, the EV shifts the other way with the vengekill and flagbearer. Oh well.... With how the setup actually turned out, it may actually be 50% EV since town basically never gets lynched, so mafia is really banking on that vengekill. So maybe the setup error isn't as much of an error after all.-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
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Rainn Goon
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Rainn Goon
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i think a big mistake that i see sometimes in some setups is that they don't count on what town actually does
like, for example, thinking that putting a miller balances a cop with a false guilty is just wrong practical assumption tbh
miller always claim d1 and cop checks elsewhere, and after cop claims miller even gains some credit-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
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Yeah, I kinda want the setup variant I posted in 105 to be like an official 3p open setup. I think it would be fun to have something besides Supersaint 3 and The One I Cannot Kill as possible 3p marathon open setups.
Edit: Also, that's exactly what happened. The flagbearer claimed early and the other townie claimed vanilla lynchproof, so yeah.
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