Disney Princess - sangres/Nazarene

[sangres]

There's just 22 pages so I'm rereading the shit out of them.
And if I conclude you are town I will completely bash you with analysis because either zar or I are dying tonight.

And if I do conclude that you should just be damn willing to talk to me. I mean, if we were scum, we'd just kill you now, wouldn't we?

-T

If you were extraordinarily weak scum, maybe. But you probably wouldn't want to kill someone who got to L-1 yesterday, someone who you could capitalize paranoia in Katsuki and Cabd about, right? But you don't exactly want to take point on that and just be the quiet neighbor because that's a lot of your towncred (which you're not exactly flush with) burned for no reason.

I'm also confused how you can bring up this piece of reasoning when scum-sangres could just kill you as easily as scum-you could kill us...?

[sangres]

And just ftr, I certainly wouldn't hammer my partner in such a circumstance, when there is second to no pressure on me. You both played with me in mistakes and I kept calling who town to the latest possible moment and then when nacho made a case I was like 'uh ok maybe'. Anyway, I'd not vote, let it go to deadline and steal one of town's valuable lynches and probably nightkill you. And later I would maybe bus the fuck out of my partner but I'd certainly let it go to deadline.

You'd cause a no lynch?
That also seems like a pretty dumb scum strategy!

[sangres]

-you are not town, are killing me tonight, and are just trolling
-you can't die
-you don't think we are scum and are just trying to draw the NK in case we are scum.
-you are stupid

Or, 5) We have ways of reaching the outside world even if we die. If you want to dodge the lynch tomorrow, you need something from us, and as it stands right now, there's no way in hell you're getting it.

[sangres]

Why do you think her opening post was indicative of her being town? I'd like navho to answer this, please, since all I've gotten is some mumbo-jumbo excuse from ffery.

I have a good record of reading Rach (a very good one, in fact!). Rach knows that I can read her very well. Rach is uncomfortable when I do not read her very well. Part of reading that opening post as town was a reaction test: as scum, I'd expect her to ignore me townreading her, not make any mention of it: she's not sure how to interact with me in order to keep me townreading her and she's not confident enough to take risks. As town, me townreading her was expected, hence the "Nacho can read me like a book" bit which, if she were scum, would be a cheeky scumfuck thing to say and not at all in line with her personality.

And, if you don't like this reasoning, you can accept that Rach absolutely hates bussing as scum and was the first vote on Maya when there was a plethora of other available mislynches available for scum-Rach, aka if you're hunting for a mislynch look elsewhere because there's no way in hell Rach is getting lynched ever.

[sangres]

Why did you think maya was town in 290?

I swear if you're gonna ignore me again for 'not being sure if we're town' I'm gonna hit something

I leaned town on Maya because I thought there was scum in you/Trust Fund and I didn't think both members of the scumteam were liable to leave themselves in extraordinarily shitty positions on the N wagon. This previous thought has changed due to stronger reads, before you get too excited.

[sangres]

And just a quick note I'm disgusted with the inaccuracy and narcissism of all the nacho posts up to here.

I'm sorry but there's nothing I can do to change the posts of the past or the posts of the future.
I'm much less obnoxious when I think I'm talking to town, though!

[sangres]

You are beating around the bush what exactly made you think cabd is town.

-Challenging ffery on not fully townreading her is liable to make her paranoid. Cabd knows this, and as scum, would be more interested in working around her paranoia, letting her come to a townread at her own pace. As town, Cabd feels ffery

should

be reading him as town and so challenges her on her read even if it will inspire paranoia in her because he's suspicious and figuring her out is more important than heading off suspicion down the road.

-Cabd not really fighting his lynch when it came and instead setting up for after his lynch (remember my townread on ffery is officially gone) also seemed more of a town-Cabd trait than a scum-Cabd trait: town-Cabd doesn't fight his lynch as hard as scum-Cabd does but instead sets up town for success after he's gone aka TownCabd is accept a lynch now, screw over scum later whereas scumCabd in a similar position pushes for the mislynch that will screw him over tomorrow, but not today.

[sangres]

You are beating around the bush what exactly made you think cabd is town.

-Challenging ffery on not fully townreading her is liable to make her paranoid. Cabd knows this, and as scum, would be more interested in working around her paranoia, letting her come to a townread at her own pace. As town, Cabd feels ffery

should

be reading him as town and so challenges her on her read even if it will inspire paranoia in her because he's suspicious and figuring her out is more important than heading off suspicion down the road.

-Cabd not really fighting his lynch when it came and instead setting up for after his lynch (remember my townread on ffery is officially gone) also seemed more of a town-Cabd trait than a scum-Cabd trait: town-Cabd doesn't fight his lynch as hard as scum-Cabd does but instead sets up town for success after he's gone aka TownCabd is accept a lynch now, screw over scum later whereas scumCabd in a similar position pushes for the mislynch that will screw him over tomorrow, but not today.

Which is a pretty good rundown of the thought process from Cabd's side in this game I think. From my side, it's a little more complicated than that. Sometimes, depending on various and sundry ~reasons~, ~events~ and ~gamestates~, I will wind up with a paradoxical townread of someone who is erroneously scumreading me.

[Nazarene]

The Heads agree that you are likely town. The Heads also have another neighbor shot, which will open up a different QT. The Heads are open to recommendations.

The Heads think that Zar has the highest chance of dying tonight, so we are reluctant to neighborize him. The Heads are both re-reading the thread in order to acquire information about Maya's potential partner.

This Head only skimmed your meta-defense of Cabd because he does not believe that there is any value whatsoever in engaging in tenuous speculation.


-A

[sangres]

It would freak him the fuck out, and I may someday do it purely because it would screw with his model of my scum and town games, but I don't think you'll neighborize Cabd on my say-so. I don't know if I would in this game state.

We still need to talk through Zar. Our little bit of intersection-time today so far has been devoted to discussing you.

Of your non-Zar choices, based on what you've said about your reads, you really don't have any solid town reads among the other candidates.

Rach is a strong town-probability to us, but I don't know how useful she is in a neighborhood. So is Katsuki with the same caveat. I don't know how effective he is with neighborhood play.

I think either of their willingness to work with you will depend on our report card, whether posthumous or not. I think our towncred improved with Maya's flip.

[Nazarene]

Aegor and me agree on you, how nice! Aegor just very strongly proposed who he thought was the last scum and I'm going to try and see if I agree in a minute. Just now, I'm gonna answer all your questions.

Oh and about neighbourhoods, I'm not in favor of opening one with either rach or kat because I don't think they're able to convey their reads to me succesfully and analyze as properly as zar and cabd. I'm leaning zar but I'm more or less getting your points on cabd.

[sangres]

We've had some time to talk about the game overall now so we're going to start dumping stuff into this thread.

First things first, we want to talk about you and why our stance is softening.

- Tier's aggression toward us has had a town feel to it
- Maya's encouraging us to attack our neighbor suggests you aren't a team
- Your reach-outs to Zar to do stuff you could townread makes a lot more sense to us based on your having a second neighborizing shot.

As a might-have-been, I think the neighborhood would have gone very differently if day 1 hadn't ended prematurely.

[sangres]

Our read on Katsuki is changing, mostly based on feeling Zar is town. If he's town and you're town, then one of our other reads is bad. And that's the read that feels bad for reasons we'll talk about in a bit.

Think about who Kat would night kill, given the Xay kill, and the effort he's put into buddying Nacho. It might not be Zar/Blizzard.

[Nazarene]

. She didn't hammer me.

If maya could have, this is a fair point for cabdtown, seeing she and cabd were the only possible other options. In my memory she didn't post inbetween us voting and kat unvoting, though. Gonna check.

You are beating around the bush what exactly made you think cabd is town.

-Challenging ffery on not fully townreading her is liable to make her paranoid. Cabd knows this, and as scum, would be more interested in working around her paranoia, letting her come to a townread at her own pace. As town, Cabd feels ffery

should

be reading him as town and so challenges her on her read even if it will inspire paranoia in her because he's suspicious and figuring her out is more important than heading off suspicion down the road.

-Cabd not really fighting his lynch when it came and instead setting up for after his lynch (remember my townread on ffery is officially gone) also seemed more of a town-Cabd trait than a scum-Cabd trait: town-Cabd doesn't fight his lynch as hard as scum-Cabd does but instead sets up town for success after he's gone aka TownCabd is accept a lynch now, screw over scum later whereas scumCabd in a similar position pushes for the mislynch that will screw him over tomorrow, but not today.

Thanks for this. I now understand the first part and I'm gonna talk this through with Aegor. Second part is something I have once experienced with scumCabd so I gotta hand that to you.

Also, in all your posts you're painting me as seeing a connection between maya and cabd. I don't necessarily see one, but I was just PoEing cabd. Hopefully Aegor's new insights will help me get rid of this problem!

[sangres]

I think your efforts with Zar have a parallel in my efforts with Cabd. I wanted an in-thread mason I could speak from the dead to, through you if I needed to, and I wasn't getting anywhere near there with his play prior to my voting him.

No matter how strong our townread of Rach, she wasn't a good candidate because she wouldn't know what I was up to. Cabd would know because he and I did something similar in one of our morph games.

[Nazarene]

Despite the last couple pages of day 2, we are both here with an open mind. PoE was the bulk of our reason for suspecting you, and we haven't PoE'd it down to one player. We're hoping this night's neighborhood posting will do that.

So are we!

You don't seem troubled by the fact that although we entered the night's posting with strong suspicions, I'm answering your questions like I am talking to town.

I'm just satisfied with it. It's the logical thing to do, because you have to see that there is a big chance of us dying if we're town, even if you are entertaining the thought we aren't. You should at least get all our opinions if that happens, because this is the only chance for it to happen. I was afraid you would be stubborn and view yourselves as scumhunting gods but majiffy levels haven't been reached in nacho luckily.

[Nazarene]

If you were extraordinarily weak scum, maybe. But you probably wouldn't want to kill someone who got to L-1 yesterday, someone who you could capitalize paranoia in Katsuki and Cabd about, right? But you don't exactly want to take point on that and just be the quiet neighbor because that's a lot of your towncred (which you're not exactly flush with) burned for no reason.

My strength as scum lies in being townread, not in being manipulative or being convincing in general. If I'd go for winning the game I'd just kill you off, you currently pose the greatest danger to me.

I'm also confused how you can bring up this piece of reasoning when scum-sangres could just kill you as easily as scum-you could kill us...?

You think we're scum but we don't think you are so what does this have to do with anything?

You'd cause a no lynch?
That also seems like a pretty dumb scum strategy!

That's pretty fucking smart strategy

[Nazarene]

Or, 5) We have ways of reaching the outside world even if we die. If you want to dodge the lynch tomorrow, you need something from us, and as it stands right now, there's no way in hell you're getting it.

Uh, we just claim to not be neighbours with you idk

I just fail to see how us-scum killing you would get shtick day 3.

aka if you're hunting for a mislynch look elsewhere because there's no way in hell Rach is getting lynched ever.

I prefer talking to ffery, even though she is a lot less straightforward about things. Just pretend we're town now and don't give a hypothetical scum-us useful advice.

Btw, I'd be quite thrilled to have the opportunity to change my alignment right now and kill you and then try and lead a mislynch on rach, I think I could manage if cabd doesn't step up a sick amount!

[Nazarene]

And just a quick note I'm disgusted with the inaccuracy and narcissism of all the nacho posts up to here.

I'm sorry but there's nothing I can do to change the posts of the past or the posts of the future.
I'm much less obnoxious when I think I'm talking to town, though!

I'm talking about inthread posts!

- Maya's encouraging us to attack our neighbor suggests you aren't a team

Moot point

- Your reach-outs to Zar to do stuff you could townread makes a lot more sense to us based on your having a second neighborizing shot.

Oh hey, that might have been why aegor was pressuring him! I don't think so tho.

Anyway, I'm happy we can work together.

[Nazarene]

Our read on Katsuki is changing, mostly based on feeling Zar is town. If he's town and you're town, then one of our other reads is bad. And that's the read that feels bad for reasons we'll talk about in a bit.

Think about who Kat would night kill, given the Xay kill, and the effort he's put into buddying Nacho. It might not be Zar/Blizzard.

GOD FUCKING DAMMIT AEGOR WAS FIRST YOU JACKASS

I swear if kat turns out to be scum and you're taking the credit *SHAKES FIST VIOLENTLY*

Aegor had other reasons for his read tho, so our reads on kat might complement each other!

[sangres]

Our read on Katsuki is changing, mostly based on feeling Zar is town. If he's town and you're town, then one of our other reads is bad. And that's the read that feels bad for reasons we'll talk about in a bit.

Think about who Kat would night kill, given the Xay kill, and the effort he's put into buddying Nacho. It might not be Zar/Blizzard.

GOD FUCKING DAMMIT AEGOR WAS FIRST YOU JACKASS

I swear if kat turns out to be scum and you're taking the credit *SHAKES FIST VIOLENTLY*

Aegor had other reasons for his read tho, so our reads on kat might complement each other!

No, if Katsuki is scum then he played day 2 very well and played it to sway us, and we were swayed.

I am going to have to stop throwing my hands up rather than developing a read on him.

[sangres]

I'm just satisfied with it. It's the logical thing to do, because you have to see that there is a big chance of us dying if we're town, even if you are entertaining the thought we aren't. You should at least get all our opinions if that happens, because this is the only chance for it to happen. I was afraid you would be stubborn and view yourselves as scumhunting gods but majiffy levels haven't been reached in nacho luckily.

Yeah you did paint a target on yourself in your post voting us, and that wasn't a wise move for a town neighborizer.

I did what I could to scuff things up in my reply to you, though my read headed south of null for a bit.

[Nazarene]

I think your post gave away we were the neighbourizer with my post directly before it. Not sure if I painted a target on myself otherwise.

I'm sad I didn't read the last ~5 pages in detail because there's a lot of good stuff in there, like katsuki avoiding the maya wagon and cabd being genuine.
Read 486 and see how off the post is.

The maya wagon had just built to L-1 and you just unvoted. Not a comment on taht, while this is the spot where you either defend or attack maya or show your indifference about happenings, at least MENTION the wagon.
Instead, she casts some passive suspicion on Zar and tries to get an old suspect, Rach, back on the forefront with the some of the worst reason ever.

She just avoids the wagon conpletely in every post in the last few pages

[Nazarene]

Oh my I'm so pushing for kat tomorrow and if we die you are pls pls pls

[sangres]

Why we're leaning town on Zar/Snowstorm:

- His Maya push was great, and convinced me that the pings I wasn't sure about were worth following. I thought some of his reasons for scumreading Maya were idiosyncratic, and was counting them against him when I was trying to PoE outward from {Rach, Cabd, Katsuki} town. The primary example being his scumreading the typo where Maya called you Zar. I felt like that was a reach and made the read look at least partially manufactured.

- His Cabd push was also good, and the questions he asked were reasonable questions for a town player unfamiliar with Cabd to ask. The one thing that caused me concern was that right after I started posturing about scumreading from a Cabd wagon, he unvoted.

But, Zar was at least implicitly townreading us earlier, in that he reached out to us to explain town-Rach. So, I can see it in both lights, but it seemed abrupt and obvious for a scum player to drop the wagon that way.

Mostly, his day 2 posts felt town. The things that niggle might not be as troubling in a player I have played with before and have a baseline on.

This isn't as strong a town read as I'd like but it's strong enough to push him out of my PoE.