Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!

[gorckat]

In my quick skim of various parts of the game at lunch I thought Gorgon might be scum as well.

In addition to the aforementioned Arakorn pushings, there was the way sikario used the smilies when random voting deathguise. It seemed a little chummy.

unvote

till I decide which way to run.

[Arakorn]

I still don't understand how me checking the rules is scummy? I mean if she already confessed, why - if I were scum - would I try to keep defending her???

[Jenter Brolincani]

I'm still thinking about modkilling, it WAS my fault for not posting rules and I aplogise but I may need to modkill to stop people posting or pretending to post PMs in future...

I'm sorry guys, in other words.

[neko2086]

You can modkill... or... you can post rules saying that anyone else posting pms in the future will be modkilled

Also, what's up with Pra?

And soupfly, I think you ought to share your thoughts as long as your still alive.

I need to do more rereading, then I'll be able to contribute something relevant.

[Jenter Brolincani]

After consideration and talk with people outside the game, I declare that suop will not die by modkill.

Obviuosly in future real or fake PM posting will result in death.

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, I think I know how this should go down.

We lynch MBF today. Soupfly uses Rocket of Death on Gorgon tonight (I'd be surprised if the rocket isn't a 1-shot vig), while I investigate one of the players I have a town read on (probably Javert). Second mason (and just so everybody is clear, there are exactly 2 masons - after watching how the Replicators won SG-1, I'm going to make damn sure that scum don't get to claim third mason FTW) claims tomorrow should he/she survive the night (pointing out my funky breadcrumb for confirmation) and I reveal my result should I survive the night.

Even in the worst-case-scenario (MBF + Gorgon town, I get killed tonight), we enter D4 with 6 alive, of which 2 are all-but-cleared (mason partner + soupfly) and two more are very likely to be town (gorckat, who came down heavily on sikario, and neko, who was also on the sikario wagon, seemed to play very pro-town concerning me yesterday, and seems to have been investigated town by Soupfly). That leaves Javert and one of {Arakorn, Pra} as the best options for lynch - lynch Javert D4 and whichever one of {Pra, Arakorn} isn't cleared by mason claim gets lynched D5, which should lead to a town win (unless one of Gorckat and Neko is playing an incredibly good game as scum).

If Soupfly's rocket turns out to be something besides a vig, then we make up for it by lynching Gorgon tomorrow and proceeding with the plan as intended (mason still claims tomorrow, and I still reveal my result if possible).

Anyone see any gaping flaws with the plan which I'm being blind about?

[mikeburnfire]

I can't say that I advocate my own lynch, but I also wouldn't be too dismayed by it either, since I only recently replaced into this game.

[gorckat]

Here's Tar's plan broken out with a full town list:

Code: Select all

mikeburnfire: lynch
Gorgon: rocket o' doom by soup

Javert: investigate by Tar
Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien
Arakorn

soupfly
Tarhalindur
neko2086
gorckat

I like lynching Gorgon first and offing mbf at night, but really, either way we proceed the same if neither one is scum.

[Javert]

If it turns out to be the case that neither MBF nor Gorgon are scum,

and

Tarhalindur dies overnight so that he cannot confirm me as an innocent, I am afraid I will not be able to acquiesce with being lynched tomorrow. I have

never

been lynched while I am pro-town, and I don't mean for it to happen in this game either.

It seems incredibly unwise to simply discount two unconfirmed players from even

possibly

being lynched for the entire duration of a game based on a relatively short two game days of playing: there is no reason the town should be so willing to risk throwing the game when it is difficult to imagine a better position to be in.

I am not

so

confident that neko2086 and gorckat are town that I am willing to risk losing the game based on the possibility of being wrong.

Additionally, I am not even so sure that Gorgon is as 'scummy' as many of you are trying to portray; reading his posts, he seems to share some of the same worries I also had concerning Tarhlindur's initial claim (although I clearly find no reason to fault it at this point in time).

I will point out that the town does not 'gain' a lynch by using the 'rocket of doom' tonight; right now, there are four lynches available to us (assuming singular nightkills). This plan allows for three lynches and a vig kill. Both scenarios result in the town deciding four deaths.

Given that, it might be wiser to see if soupfly can use one of his

other

inventions to gain more

information

instead of doing something the town can already do (kill a player via lynch).

[Tarhalindur]

First: After reviewing the events at the end of yesterday, one thing stood out - as it turns out, I misread the vote count, and neko, not Gorckat, was the leader on the Sikario lynch. This elevates neko to "all-but-confirmed town" in my eyes, and drops Gorckat down to "likely town" along with whichever one of Pra and Arakorn I'm not lying about due to mason-ness.

Now: To follow up on my original plan, I think I found something that should remove the last vulnerability in the plan.

In addition to his Rocket of Death, Soupfly has claimed a horn-like object. I (like Soupfly himself) think that this item is likely a roleblock. If this is, in fact, the case, then we are all-but-guaranteed a town win, because in the current situation a roleblock is as good as an investigation.

Assume that we lynch MBF as town, Soupfly successfully vigs Gorgon as town, and I am NK'ed as town (obviously). Town lynches Javert as town, and then Soupfly uses his third ability to attempt to attempt to roleblock whichever one of {Pra, Arakorn} is not the second mason.

If the third item works as expected and there is a kill, then a town win is guaranteed because Soupfly's target is confirmed town (since said target couldn't have made the mafia kill), leaving 3 out of 4 players all-but-confirmed (assuming that Soupfly is killed N4, then my mason partner, Soupfly's N3 target, and neko) and we lynch scum FTW. (D3 lynch MBF, N3 Tar mafia killed, N3 Gorgon vigged, D4 mason claims (clearing another player), D4 Javert lynched, N4 {Pra, Arakorn} RB'ed, N4 Soupfly mafia killed, D5 lynch Gorckat ftw (Arakorn, Pra, neko clear) - note that this scenario

assumes

optimal play by the scum)

If there is no NK on N4, then town enters D5 with 5 alive (Arakorn, Pra, Soupfly, neko, gorckat). Lynch whichever of {Arakorn, Pra} was RB'ed; if that fails, lynch Gorckat ftw.

If Soupfly is killed tonight instead of me and I get another innocent, then we have 4 of 6 living players all-but-confirmed town (me, Javert, neko, mason partner) and win the game in 2 lynches.

Of course, if one of {MBF, Gorgon, Javert} is the last scum, then the game ends early with a town victory.

If we are correct in believing that Soupfly's noise maker is a roleblock, then the only way that the Mafia have any chance of winning is if one of Gorckat, Pra, or Arakorn is a Mafia Roleblocker (and even then we have a 50% chance of winning based on random chance alone) or if we are dealing with a second mafia (unlikely given known information). If Soupfly's third ability does not RB and we reach LyLo, then we have a 50% chance of winning even if we flip a coin (neko + mason partner clear, Gorckat and one of {Pra, Arakorn} uncleared - and even in the worst case scenario [Soupfly inadvertently motivates scum] we have a 3 player endgame with 1 player cleared)

Acceptable changes to the plan: lynching Gorgon today and killing MBF tonight, placing Gorckat ahead of {Pra, Arakorn} in the lynch order (and therefore having Soupfly block Gorckat N4).

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Wait, two more considerations (one is a pretty big flaw... oops)

1) If the trumpet-like object is not a RB and it hits scum, then scum can skate through to endgame on the night result. Has to be factored into consideration.

2) Mafia Strongman could screw this up royally, too.

2) Using the trumpet-like object tonight (for a virtual double investigation) may be the better play (it should nullify a Mafia Roleblocker, come to think of it). Soupfly block Gorgon, I investigate Javert (or vice versa), vig a player N4 if no better action is available?

Need some time to think through things thoroughly.

[soupfly]

i think the trumpet like thing is a protection.

i think the bus was the role block.

its clear that tar was protected and roleblocked on N2. i know i used the bus on tar and then the mod told tar that i was responsible for the roleblock. this means that the bus was also protection (in addition to the roleblock) or someone else protected tar.

i think its likely that there's a doc out there who protected you tar.

[Javert]

Please let's not speculate about the existence / non-existence of Doctors.

I think I am going to throw out a slightly different suggestion. Although I

do

agree soupfly should try to gain information if possible (as I noted above), I am not sure it is wise to publicize all the night actions. Publicizing night actions only means that the scum can with 100% accuracy decide on what strategy will best suit their interests; if we keep it hidden who Tarhalindur investigates, as well as who soupfly uses his ability (whatever ability he chooses) on, then the town loses little to nothing.

The only possible "loss" with this plan is if soupfly is killed and we have no way of discerning who he targeted. However, we

do

know that his previous two night choices were made very clear to the people being targeted, so I imagine the same will be true of his other inventions as well - so I am inclined to think that "losing information" with this set-up is nearly impossible. Even if we

did

lose exactly what soupfly's action was, in that situation Tarhalindur would still be alive

and

have an investigation to use, which still results in more information than we would otherwise receive by publicizing night actions.

[soupfly]

known townies:

tar
soupfly
neko

possible scum

Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien
Gorgon
Javert
gorckat
mikeburnfire
Arakorn

of these possible scum one of them is tar's mason buddy (though i don't care to specify which).

the important thing at the moment is for tar to be kept alive and for us to not target his mason partner. for this to happen i believe that we should let tar pick the lynch for today so that we don't accidentally go after his mason partner which would needlessly cause him to claim. also tar has a 1/5 chance of lynching scum whereas the rest of us have a 1/6 because we don't know who his mason buddy is.

over night tar should choose his own target. i will use my trumpet thing on him as i believe that is an alarm/security system which will protect him. if there is another doc then they'll have to decide whether to use it on me or tar considering that the trumpet may not work like i'm anticipating and may not protect tar.

in any case i think we should agree to let tar decide today's lynch.

[soupfly]

i recommend you consider lynching Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien who has hardly posted and is just lurking.

[Gorgon]

Well, I admit that I forgot that of course Tar's partner can back him up whenever he feels like it, and in a regular mini, it's unlikely that masons aren't confirmed townies.

Also, there's most likely only one scum left. If that's Tar, falsely claiming mason with no backup would be very stupid.

So, Tar's not the remaining scum. There's almost no way that's possible. I admit that.

However, the mason-cop thing still bothers me. It sounds extremely powerful. We have this, an inventor ... while the mafia have a goon, a godfather, and probably one more member with unkown powers. It all sounds pretty unbalanced.

Anyway, I agree with soupfly that we're better of with letting Tar decide today's lynch. Also, I have some reservations about a mike lynch, but I can't say I'm dead set against it.

[Arakorn]

Hold on, how do we know Neko is town? Otherwise I'm fine with Soupfly's idea.

[soupfly]

Hold on, how do we know Neko is town? Otherwise I'm fine with Soupfly's idea.

because i sort of investigated him on night one. i had a forged money printer (one of my inventions) which i put outside his house and i sat around all night but he never left his house.

given that my other inventions all have a purpose:
1) rocket of death: vig night kill
2) bus: roleblock
3) trumpet: possibly night protection
i assume that the forged money printer was a means of investigating a player. if he would have tried to use it he would have been scum but since he ignored it i think that confirms him as a townie.

its not definite but very likely.

[Javert]

I am more inclined to believe the forged money printer was a way to

track

players.

Actually, I did receive a pm from Jenter saying something like I wake up and find a counterfeit money printer outside my house and I put it in my shed. I almost said something about it, but I figured it was just a really strange way to say "it's now D2."

Since neko2086 was alerted about the printer as day opened, he could not have "used" it during the night. Additionally, you were only told that he did not "leave his house" -- this means that he did not take a night-action Night Two. If he were mafia and MeMe were his partner, if MeMe conducted the kill on Night Two and neko2086 did nothing, you would have gotten the exact same result that neko2086 did not leave his house.

I will take this time to note, however, that of all the unconfirmed players neko2086 is probably highest on my town list, but it would be remiss of me not to point that out.

[mikeburnfire]

Could have been a way to roleblock too. Afterall, who could resist free money, town or scum?

[Javert]

^ That should say "Night One" in place of "Night Two".

[neko2086]

After rereading, it's still pretty unclear to me who the most likely 3rd scum is. For the time being, I would still go with MBF, but I'm a bit uneasy about both Gorgon and Javert. Soupfly suggested the possibility of a Pra lynch, but I am highly opposed to such an idea. Meme's encounters with Pra don't quite fit a scum-pair relationship unless she was seriously trying to distance herself from him. It does not appear, however, that she made any attempt to do the same for sikario (hardly ever mentioned him, actually), and her aggressive behavior against RTB/Guardian, suggests that she was not interested in attacking her partners for distancing, but rather town for easy lynches. She didn't even jump on the sikario bus, which would have been a great way to distance herself if she chose to do so. She probably wanted to leave as little connection as possible between herself and the other mafiates. Unfortunately, she didn't target many people, so it's difficult to narrow the possible scum down from that theory, but I do think Pra can pretty safely be called town (for now, anyway). We should not waste our lynch on someone who is somewhat likely to be scum anyway. The most likelies should be first, as to avoid problems later in the game.

[mikeburnfire]

I think we should kill Javert. If he is scum, then he will never forget the town that destroyed him and his scumbuddies in a perfect volley of lynches. If he is town, then he will never forget the first game in which he got lynched as town. Either way this will be an epic game for him.

[Arakorn]

I think we should kill Javert. If he is scum, then he will never forget the town that destroyed him and his scumbuddies in a perfect volley of lynches. If he is town, then he will never forget the first game in which he got lynched as town. Either way this will be an epic game for him.

Is that supposed to be a joke. Because it is funny, but scummy. (Hey, a rhyme!)

Seriously though, I wouldn't put too much confidence in the inventions as their names are pretty vague and so it is quite hard to guess their real effect. I'm still all for Tar deciding on who to lynch.

[Javert]

I am not sure I can agree with your post, neko2086.

Reading back on MeMe's posts, it is fairly clear that when MeMe voted for Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien in Post 384, her vote was made at a time where it was very likely that Pra was

not

going to be lynched due to a lack of votes near deadline. If there was distancing going on, that is precisely when scum

will

distance because the risk is minimal.

When she voted Arakorn in Post 331, however, it was at a time where lynching Arakorn was possibility, and that was in fact the purpose of her vote. The context of the votes sometimes matter more than the presence of the votes themselves.

It is also faulty to assume that a mafiate will take the same stances on all of their partners. I am positive you have seen games where mafia members protect one partner, and bus the other; or protect one, and ignore the other; or some other combination of different types of interactions with one's partners. Claiming that MeMe's strategy the whole game was to "ignore her partners" because she generally did not comment on Sikario8 is not a valid extrapolation.