Newbie 436 - Killings in Kerplunkville - GAME OVER

[MeMe]

Vote Count

4

cicero (Elias_the_thief, Quinnster, Andycyca, pwayne66)

1

Andycyca (Mr. Flay)

not voting (2): cicero, Rime Ice Fury

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Say goodbye to

cicero

the

townie

& good night to everyone else.

Choices are due at

9:15 a.m. Sunday, September 2

(about 72 hours from now). Send them to me, not Kerplunk.

[MeMe]

Everyone mourn for

Rime Ice Fury

,

Townie

.

Now stop your sniveling and avenge him! It's now day two; five alive means three to lynch.

[Quinnster]

Well this puts me in a predicament, I was suspecting Flay/Cicero or Flay/Rime. Huh. Of course, nobody vote until you're absolutely sure.

[Kerplunk]

Okay, I am back.

Thank you sooo much for moderating MeMe!

[Andycyca]

This throws Elias' suspicions completely... Now it's time to review the cases against Cicero and RIF and vote in consequence, but it will take us some time...

[pwayne66]

Give me some time to look over what has happened already.

[Elias_the_thief]

This throws Elias' suspicions completely... Now it's time to review the cases against Cicero and RIF and vote in consequence, but it will take us some time...

Actually it shows that I was partially right. I said that if Cicero were town, I was certain that RIF was town. I was right about that. That being said,

NO ONE VOTE UNLESS YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY SURE! MAKE SURE WE HAVE TIME TO DISCUSS BEFORE VOTING SINCE SCUM CAN PILE ON TO QUICKLYNCH AND WIN.

[cicero]

My bah post:

Told ya I was town. Neener neener neener.

Go TOWN!

[pwayne66]

So, what have we learned.

1) RIF is not scum as Elias had predicted.
2) Does Flay cease to be suspicious in light of Cicero's innocence?
3) andy? Not sure where to place him in the hierarchy
4) Elias? my spidey-sence tingles a bit in his presence but I have nothing in the way of evidence
5) Quinn? If he is scum then he is damn good.

How do we feel about the Cicero's bandwagon.? I believe that there is some truth to the theory about at least one (if not both) scum being on a town lynching D1. That's Elias_the_thief, Quinnster, Andycyca, and me.

Is Flay's abstainence from this vote still significant? These are the things that I would like to discuss.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm back in town. Haven't read up fully, but will do so tonight or tomorrow.

Right now I'm inclined toward pwayne, based on arguments already articulated yesterday. The fact that he wants to argue both for one scum being on the lynch and my abstinence being significant is ... well, significant. But obviously, no vote yet.

Best angle of attack on this will be to figure out why RIF died, I'm thinking.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm not sure I understand why RIF died either. I thought that I was the only one of the opinion that Cicero's innocence cleared RIF, so it seems odd that RIF would get NKed.

[pwayne66]

Reasons for voting me off were already articulated? Is this kind of like your phantom defense of Cicero or my phantom defense of you that occurred earlier?

If not, as near as I can tell, you argued for me being the fourth most likely scum (behind RIF, Cicero, and Andy). Why have I elevated in status above Andy?

As far as arguing for both sides of the cicero lynch/guilt debate, I was arguing nothing, only saying where my head is at this point and asking for input.

Oh and for the record, significant does not mean scummy... unless you have a guilty conscience...

[pwayne66]

I am hesitant to try to look too much into the NK. A whole flurry of assumptions could be made based on WIFOM premises. Being that the mafia are the only ones that know which glass of wine is poisoned, I just as soon not play.

The way I see it, the NK only tells us one thing, RIF was a townie.

[Andycyca]

Posting on the fly...

Could it be that RIF was NK'ed for his analysis? It has been said that I'm not one of the top analysts here, and maybe scum saw RIF as potentially dangerous...

[Mr. Flay]

Inexperienced scum will tend to NK the person that is closest to figuring them out. Experienced scum may NK someone to frame another player for the above strategy. Looking back over RIF's posts & analysis, his attention was all over the place, but most strenuously on Elias. And Elias_the_thief is the player who thought he had "broken the game" by naming cicero & RIF as the scum. Now both are dead, so where does that leave us? Not sure, but it seems to point toward Elias-scum to me.

[Quinnster]

These deaths have really overwhelmed me in the sense that I was positive that one of them would be scum. Now, Flay is still on my radar screen because he's made so many scummy plays, but I was really pairing him up with on of those other two, and besides them, I don't really see him co-operating with anyone in any fashion.

Andycyca
pwayne66
elias_the_thief

One or more of you are scum. And you know what? You're doing a damn good job at it. I mean, for all I know, Flay could be as town as Lassie, but I'm forced at this point to keep him on my radar for lack of a better suspect.

[Elias_the_thief]

I can assure you of my own innocence, but I am at a lack for the others...I'm pretty sure Quin is protown, so in my opinion one of {flay, pwayne, andycyca} is scum. I'll have to spend some time pinning it down though. As long as no one votes, we have all the time in the world.

Flay mentions how NKs can be used to frame certain players...yet he says that the NK seems to logically point to me. This is WIFOM as hell.

[Mr. Flay]

Flay mentions how NKs can be used to frame certain players...yet he says that the NK seems to logically point to me. This is WIFOM as hell.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it. WIFOM is one of the biggest tools in the scum's bag of tricks, but it doesn't mean we can just throw

all

logic and deduction out of the window.

While we're making lists, I think I like Elias, pwayne, Andy, and Quinn for scum, in that order. But I may be biased in that pwayne and i got into one hell of an snark-fest at the end of D1...

[Andycyca]

Again, posting on the fly (sorry, a lot of work this week)

My suspects, in decreasing order:

1. Elias
2. Flay
3. Pwayne
4. Quinn

I'm on a hurry now, but if you want it, I can give you the reasons later ok?
[ Offtopic ]
BTW happy birthday Pwayne![ /offtopic]

[Elias_the_thief]

Flay mentions how NKs can be used to frame certain players...yet he says that the NK seems to logically point to me. This is WIFOM as hell.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it. WIFOM is one of the biggest tools in the scum's bag of tricks, but it doesn't mean we can just throw

all

logic and deduction out of the window.

Huh? I said we should throw wifom logic in particular out the window, not all logic and deduction. Your point was entirely WIFOM because its a matter of thinking the mafia is doing this or that.

[pwayne66]

thanks andy.

1. flay
2. andy
3. elias
4. quinn

flay, I have stated why. andy's first two post of day two seem a bit contrived (may be the language thing) first post seems to set himself up to lurk. second post speculates on the NK (I know, weak tell...) and it handsomely sets up Flay's speculation about Elias (my hat is officially in the ring in the scumpair theory race...).

Elias I have stated as well. Flay's theory doesn't hold for me, but if not for andy's day 2 posts, Elias would be my #2 suspect just on gut.

I will try to piece together a more solid andy/flay connection when I am more sober (hey...it's my birthday...)

[Mr. Flay]

Flay mentions how NKs can be used to frame certain players...yet he says that the NK seems to logically point to me. This is WIFOM as hell.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it. WIFOM is one of the biggest tools in the scum's bag of tricks, but it doesn't mean we can just throw

all

logic and deduction out of the window.

Huh? I said we should throw wifom logic in particular out the window, not all logic and deduction. Your point was entirely WIFOM because its a matter of thinking the mafia is doing this or that.

I don't think I said that clearly. By "remiss if I didn't mention

it

", I was referring to the WIFOM logic of framing someone via nightkill. It's still less likely than a straightforward "we killed this guy because we thought he was a power role/was off the townie lynch", but it does happen (at least when I'm playing ).

More later, I've got a newsletter to produce by noon today.

[Kerplunk]

Vote Count

not voting (5): Andycyca, Elias, Mr. Flay, pwayne66, Quinnster

5 alive, 3 to lynch.

[Andycyca]

Yay! weekend!

OK, let's see:

@pwayne: In my first post I suggested to track EVERYONE'S reasons for lynching cicero and/or RIF (my suggestion is to track Elias end Pwayne's first). Now that we know they're both townies, we can see which feelings were right, which ones wrong and so on. I posted that as my suggestion on what we could do now, instead of discussing another 12 pages.

Set myself to lurk? I don't want to be a lurker, every few days I post even when I'm loaded with work.
--------------------------------
Curious thing to notice: everyone of us has Quinn at the bottom of the scumlists. That means he's the best damn scum actor or is townie. However this seems to reduce everyone's analysis to 3 people (Elias, Flay and Pwayne in my case) I have only gut feelings yet, based on yesterday Flay's evasive posts and (weak tell) on how Elias thought he had figured down the game. I haven't discarded Pwayne yet, but I still don't have anything against.

[pwayne66]

I didn't mean to suggest that you were lurking, b/c you are not. I only meant to say that when I see posts that say "I'm going to have to reread" or "This could take a while to sort out" I know it COULD be a play to justify an absence.

As far as the nightkill comments go, this is why I feel we can't trust them. I am highly suspicious of anybody that tries to use them in their case. We know that the mafia killed RIF for some reason. For all we know it was to make Elias look like he was mafia. It could be that RIF was reluctant to lynch, not a quality that the mafia wants from a day two townie.

My statement is just about a how nearly perfect your post and Flay's post coincided. Flay posts "Figuring out why RIF was killed is the best avenue" then you post "hey, maybe it was because of who he suspected in the game" and the Flay says "Hm, good point, lets see...he was kind of suspicious of Elias... you don't think Elias is scum do you?" and you say "hey! he is my number 1 suspect!" Of course this is a not proof and it could be a coincidence, but if there is a real case against Elias, I want to hear it. If your case is only this NK theory, I am going to continue to be suspicious.