Mafia 47: Kingmaker - Game over!

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, here is a peek at some night discussion. As you might imagine, Jelly was the most talkative person… *sigh*

Night One (after the Execution of Random Acts):

Generic Message to AmeliaSlay, Broomhead, Elvis_Knits, and Vaughn:

Howdy, scummers! I'll try to be succinct:

Thoughts on Living Players

*Alexander – Hammered RA well, said “cop” and “investigation” a few times [good target]
*Chamber – Agreed with everything RA said… maybe a good lynch target [keep alive]
*Fritzler – Generally unreadable (probably not kingmaker) [good target]
*Fuldu – May push lynch towards N_Lich for us (for saying assassin), and pushed RA pretty hard [keep alive]
*Glork – Defended Twomz, and said he would “make a good king”. I think Twomz and Glork might be Mason partners. [good target]
*Mystery Meat of Doom – Seems to spout random things, can’t pick up a role clue, may be a good deferential lynch if he keeps saying silly things [keep alive]
*N_Lich – No role hints, but an easy lynching target, especially with Fuldu alive [keep alive]
*Shamrock – No role hints, probably not kingmaker (since he replaced Mons) [keep alive]
*The Silent Speaker – I honestly cannot tell what his role is, and he is very observant. [possible target]
*Thok – Votes lots of people, including me. Seems very concerned about outing the Kingmaker (so perhaps the Kingmaker). If Fritz is chosen overnight, we may have our man (since he said he wouldn’t be opposed to such a thing). [less likely target]
*Twomz – Perhaps the Mason with Glork, and I’m starting to wonder if Fritzler is the third member (if this is right to begin with) [possible target, but probably not]
*VitaminR – Defended Broomhead for us: if Broomhead is executed, we should point this out. Created suspicion on Twomz in same post (Post 287), so probably good lynching target late-game [keep alive for now]
*Yosarian2 – Suggested the silly confirmation of RandomActs, but will likely attack Broomhead tomorrow.[undecided]

Possible Killing Targets:

-Alexander (seems like he has a power role, I’m thinking Cop)
-Fritzler (suspected Mason with Glork and Twomz) – (but may be protected)
-Glork (suspected Mason with Fritzler and Twomz)
-Thok (suspected Kingmaker)
-Twomz (suspected Mason with Fritzler and Glork)
-The Silent Speaker (but may be protected)

Possible Lynching Targets (tomorrow):

-N_Lich (for saying assassin, hopefully Fuldu will lead the charge)
-Chamber (for having four posts and contributing nothing)
-Mystery Meat of Doom (for saying silly things)

Possible Future Lynching Targets:

-VitaminR (for defending Broomhead and suspecting Twomz Post 287)

And those are my thoughts for now. If you caught anything I missed, don't be afraid to say so.

Also, a special note to BroomHead: you are probably going to come under some attack tomorrow. Sorry for getting on your case D1, but it's good you tried to make a case against me afterwards. We may have to think of a claim for you.

I was originally going to suggest claiming Mason (since you were the person to suggest the Masons coming out), but after a counter-claim, I have a bad feeling the real Mason will be Doctor protected, and will become King the next day, which would not be good for us.

Best targets for tonight are Alexander, Glork, or possibly Fritzler, in my opinion.

Jelly

I take complete credit for nailing all four power roles in my list of good targets on Night One.

Some responses:

Wow, in-depth, I love your style PJ.

I tend to like to leave Fritz alive. Fritz will end up dieing unless he's scum, he'll be lynched then.

Alexander is my favourite.

By the by, It would make sense I beleive, to claim hero.

In a 19 person game, it's obvious we have multiple docs/cops.

But the hero role may be a single role.

Not to mention, no king will touch you.

yes, i realize i may come under some attack, and i suggest everyone distance themselves from me, but do not be too afraid, in every game i play, scum or not i have "scummy vibes". i get that every time, and i mean every time, and maybe the best part is this happened in my last game with fritzler (he and i were masons together) and i still (even after being confirmed by cop and being outed as a mason) was agreed by the town i would be night killed.so maybe fritzler will defend me.

side note, i would almost like to see yos as one of our thinking about killing list.

I think Alexander is a good target because he mentions the Hero, the Cop and the Vig. If he's any of these, we're awesome. (Plus I don't think he'll be protected seeing as he hammered RA the townie). I support killing Alexander, but of course if everyone wants someone else, I am flexible.

I think if Broomhead (or anyone else) has to claim, they should claim Hero. I was IMing with Vaughn and he suggested it. Sounds good to me. If you have to go down, out a power role on the way.

If you look back at my post, you can see:

It's too bad we never really got to push our lynching agenda... as it happened, N_Lich and Chamber were

both

investigated that night (making things much more difficult on scum), and I tried to tiptoe into pushing MMoD into the spotlight (which clearly backfired in the end).

As you might imagine, I was

not

happy watching two of my planned lynches disappear, while at the same time watching all three people with power roles I had predicted come into the open, while at the same time watching AmeliaSlay and Broomhead come under attack. Day Two was

not

a fun day, and I spent most of it trying to determine exactly how I was going to have to shift my strategy.

Some Night Two discussion:

To: Broomhead, PetroleumJelly, Vaughn

Amelia...

Broomhead's claim was pretty sweet. I guess it could come back to bite him in the ass at some point, but seeing as nobody counterclaimed, I'd say Broomhead will go far in the game.

So we have the masons out and we have the cops out (Fritz and Twomz). I think if anyone else has to claim, they need to claim vig or doc to find out who those guys are. Atleast that's what I will do if I have to claim. I've also been thinking about doing a belated counterclaim on Broomhead, saying "I didn't want to counterclaim Hero because I knew he was scum trying to get me to come out." But that might be a better route after we kill the doc(s)/vig(s). It also might be better for PJ or Vaughn to claim Hero, if need be, because they said they didn't totally believe Broomhead. Then you can point to that as a breadcrumb. Then whoever is lynched makes the other one look even more innocent.

So I guess we try to kill Fritzler or Twomz. I vote Fritzler because he's good at picking out scum to investigate. He's a supercop in raj's freaktown and picked 3 scum out of three choices.

Howdy, fellow assassins.

Bah, I was hoping we could nudge Glork into executing Twomz, what horrible luck that he turned out to be a Cop.

And unfortunately Elvis, I stated in thread, specifically, that I am not a Hero. Live and learn, I suppose. I might be able to get away with a Vigilante or Doctor claim (unless I am investigated, of course), I really wish there were a couple millers or at least a Godfather in this game, this looks like another game of “confirm all the innocents, execute everybody else”.

I’m actually pretty depressed that there are two cops in this game: there are already 5 basically confirmed innocents, and there is no way any of us are going to become King/Queen now. Any investigation on any of us cannot be disputed (since there is guaranteed sanity), unless we want to attack the investigator, which would likely out another of us, at least.

Ah, and we had some good fortune with Broomhead, but one investigation will ruin that prospect. Likely he will be Vigged in the near future, unless we can draw out the Vig.

Anyhow, short listing of players:

*Chamber/LoudMouthLee – Investigated innocent, I have no clue what his role is. Likely a Vanilla Townie, but we cannot forget that a confirmed LoudMouthLee could mean trouble.
*Fritzler – Cop. Obviously a good target, but very likely to be protected, if there is/are Doctor(s).
*Fuldu – Cannot determine his role. Could be practically anything. Unfortunate that Fritz investigated N_Lich, who Fuldu was pushing D1. Probably a bad target tonight.
*Glork – Mason, but with nothing going for him besides the fact that he is confirmed. I say he is a horrible target, probably keep him alive every night, since he is essentially a Townie who will be a last resort King.
*Mystery Meat of Doom – Is NOT a doctor, since he speculates there may be no doctors in this game. Also isn’t a Cop, and if he is Vigilante, he may actually help us by offing innocents, or at least not attempting to kill suspected assassins. Bad target, and still a decent lynching target.
*N_Lich – Cannot read him in general, probably a Vanilla Townie, and also a confirmed innocent.
*Shamrock – Hm, he caught both Amelia and Broomhead, but still is probably a bad target. He will be difficult to execute seeing as he first brought attention to Amelia, however.
*The Silent Speaker – Was really getting on my case yesterday, and I probably came off the worse for it. However, he guesses that there are TWO doctors, which may be an indication that he is one of them. I would say he is certainly a fair target.
*Thok – Almost certainly the Kingmaker, and hence is a horrible play. He is not confirmed in the town, and if he gives his Kingmaker ability to an unconfirmed townies, the situation only gets worse for us. Leave Thok alive as long as possible. Of course, with my luck he’ll turn out to be a very clever Doctor, knowing that the assasins would not try to kill the Kingmaker.
*Twomz – Cop, but less likely to be protected than Fritzler. Fair target.
*VitaminR – He is now voting for Vaughn and has shown suspicion on me. All his other suspicions have ended up being confirmed innocents, pretty much. He will be dangerous if he is listened to, but if he is not a Doctor or Vigilante, he is not our top priority. HOWEVER he floundered on the Amelia lynch, so he may be a logical lynching target tomorrow, if he is not investigated.
*Yosarian2 – He is probably a Vanilla Townie, because he went to great lengths to explain how Vanilla Townies can be confirmed by a dead kingmaker. Given this, he is probably a good lynching target, since his claim should not be a power role, and hence a King ought to be willing to execute him. However he is also concerned with directing the Vigilantes, so may be a Vig as well. Blah.

So, roles:
Mason – Glork (Bad target)
Cop – Fritzler, Twomz (Good targets)
Doc – The Silent Speaker (?) (Potentially very good target)
KingMaker – Thok (Worst target)

I say we go for one of the claimed Cops (probably Twomz over Fritzler, simply because of Doctor protection), stab at a suspected Doc (I’m thinking TSS, but I will wait to hear what Elvis thinks since she is good at picking out Doctors), or go for a confirmed innocent that is not Glork (N_Lich or LoudMouthLee).

Possible lynching targets tomorrow are The Silent Speaker, Mystery Meat of Doom, and Yosarian2, in no particular order.

On a side-note, if there are two Doctors in this game, I will not hold back the information that that would completely screw us over. There had better be only one Doctor, as we would otherwise be forced to allow one Cop to live indefinitely while we try to find two specific players, while watching as players are confirmed and scum are executed. If choose to avoid the Cops tonight and there are no Doctor deaths or claims, we're probably going to have to go for a Cop.

Jelly

OK... I can see leaving Fritzler for after we know atleast one doc is dead.

I'm gonna go back through the thread and look for a doc. Sometimes I am good at finding them.

If we can't agree on who might be doc, I think we might try for one of the cops. I know we have a chance of being blocked by a doc, but it could be worth it. I've been screwed because I went after a cop and he was protected, but I've also been screwed because I didn't go after a cop and the doc banked on that and protected someone else (and blocked my random kill). You can get screwed either way.

So I went back through the thread and my best guess for doc is TSS, so it's interesting that you think so too (I purposely didn't read your rundown until after I did my read-through so I wouldn't be biased).

I think TSS is a doc because he listed the players in the game and said for himself "TSS - known to me, at least, to be pro-town" PRO-TOWN. I think if he were vanilla he would just say "a townie." I would. Pro-town is the sort of slip-up I wold expect a power role to make. It's not bullet-proof, but it's the best I found. (Plus the other thing that PJ already pointed out, that TSS said there are "2 docs" in the game.)

Oh also, I think Fuldu is NOT a doc because he forced Fritzler to claim cop. If he were doc, he'd just let it lie, protect Fritz and hope the mafia try to kill him so they get blocked.

Shamrock - really couldn't get a read on him. No tells that I could pick up.

In summary, I'd take a chance to kill TSS, or try to kill Twomz (if we figure Fritz will get the protection).

If we don't want to kill either cop or TSS, we have to kill one of the confirmed innocents. I favor LML over n_Lich because n_lich is a lurker and LML is dangerous and already doesn't like PJ.

Ok... list of potential lynches from safest to ballsiest:
LML
n_Lich
Twomz
Fritz
TSS

I put TSS as ballsiest because if he isn't doc, we've missed a chance to take out a cop or confirmed innocent. If we let the confirmed innocents live, this game will quickly get away from us.

well i say TSS is just a fine choice for a kill because i got that he was a power role(not necessarily doc) but the vibe i got form him was that if he was ever pressured, he'd claim and be fine.

You make a strong arguement, I'm guessing that's because of your notes har har.

I'm sure the mod balanced the game, because there's no way we can win this if there's two sane cops, and a doctor

I'd love to see Fritz go, but Twomz seems to the most likely successful kill.

Zum.

To address Broomhead:

I think we have to go for Twomz tonight. Killing TSS gives the town either more confirmed townies, or confirmed scum in us. We need to take out a Cop now before things get out of hand.

And I seriously doubt that any of us are ever going to become King/Queen at this point: there are confirmed innocents (Glork, Fritz, Twomz, N_Lich, Chamber/LML), and the Kingmaker will very likely not choose anybody not from that list. If one of us somehow does become Kingmaker, though, if you feel like there is an investigation against you (from either Twomz or Fritz or whatever), definitely take out a Cop or Doc. Fritz, Twomz and TSS would all be excellent targets to Execute: at this point, I don't think we can afford to Execute ourselves. O_o

Broomhead, of course, should have a different strategy. If he ever becomes Kingmaker (since your claim has the potential to go far), I would say try to pin the execution on a Townie, rather than a power role. If you can find a Vigilante, though, that could be very good, since then the town will be forced to execute Broomhead under fear that he might be the Hero.

Okay, all four of us seem to agree... but:

If we want to go for the Doctor tonight we're going to go after TSS. If we want to take a chance at hitting one of the Cops (to stop innocents from being confirmed and to lessen the chances of us being outed) we ought to target Twomz, who is the less likely of the two claimed Cops to be protected. If we want to go for a confirmed innocent, we go for LoudMouthLee over N_Lich over Glork.

I can easily be swayed to kill either TSS or Twomz at this point, each can be very dangerous.

To be honest, I'm thinking of killing Twomz tonight, TSS tomorrow night (unless there is another suspected or claimed Doctor), and then Fritzler on the night after at least one Doctor is out of the picture.

In short (if absolutely everything works out):

A
Night One: Kill Twomz --> 1 Investigation from Fritzler, Execute Townie. Alive: 1 Mason, 1 Kingmaker, 3 Investigated Innocents, 1 Cop, 8 others. (14 Alive)
Night Two: Kill TSS --> 1 Investigation from Fritzler, Execute Townie. Alive: 1 Mason, 1 Kingmaker, 4 Investigated Innocents, 1 Cop, 5 others. (12 Alive)
Night Three: Kill Fritzler --> Alive: 1 Mason, 1 Kingmaker, 4 Investigated Innocents, 5 others, four of which could be us... this seriously does not look good. Even if there is an incorrect Execution, that will leave all of us in the open.

B
Night One: Kill TSS --> 1 Investigation from Fritzler, 1 Investigation from Twomz, Execute Townie. Alive: 1 Mason, 1 Kingmaker, 4 Investigated Innocents, 2 Cops, 6 others. (14 Alive)
Night Two: Kill Fritzler --> 1 Investigation from Twomz, Execute Townie. Alive: 1 Mason, 1 Kingmaker, 5 Investigated Innocents, 1 Cop, 4 others (which would leave all of us). (12 Alive)
Night Three: Kill Twomz --> Alive: 1 Mason, 1 Kingmaker, 5 Investigated Innocents, 4 others (all of us).

This of course relies on the worst case scenario (Cops always investigate different people, and those people do not die). This also actually strengthens my opinion that at this point in the game, it is actually more dangerous to have confirmed innocents than it is if a Cop gets a guilty on one of us. We should actually be hoping that one of us is investigated (or that they investigate each other, or investigate the same person, or investigate TSS), because otherwise we will lose by simple deduction from the town. Unconfirmed innocents gives us wiggle room in the endgame, at the very least.

As you can see, it actually becomes more difficult to confirm townies if we can take out one of the Cops now, as opposed to killing TSS, the suspected Doctor first. The TSS plan is especially risky if TSS turns out not to be a Doctor at all: that would be utterly disastrous.

If you can't tell, I think we strategically need to try to kill Twomz tonight, as I believe it is the best long-term strategy, even though I am fairly confident that TSS is the Doctor. I'll wait and see what all of you think first, however.

Jelly

Wait, they'll have to execute broomhead fearing he is the hero?

Which King would kill a claimed hero, knowing his life is on the line.

I'm guessing a cop will check Broom, so it's imperative that we need a Cop dead.

Somehow, I get this feeling that we're going to be up for a tough endgame.

I think Twomz is the way to go, but I have this feeling TSS might pull a fast one and save Twomz, and if we don't get a night kill, we're dead meat.

No, no, Vaughn:

If we find and kill the Vigilante, the town can only win by eventually Executing Broomhead. When there are lots of confirmed innocents and Broomhead is not one of them, there will eventually have to be a King/Queen who will have to believe they are "facing a bullet" in executing Broomhead.

In any case, like we've said in PMs, Twomz is probably the way to go. Yes, it is certainly possible that TSS will protect Twomz (or whoever the real doctor is, or if there is for some reason a second doctor), but we really can't afford to play the WIFOM game. I am thinking Cops actually might cross-check (I would), which will be tremendously helpful to us if our kill is successful, but tremendously harmful to us if our kill is not successful.

This is getting to be a long night, so unless there are any objections, I will send in a Twomz kill tomorrow afternoon, April 2nd. I think we've had a pretty productive night.

You can imagine my surprise at watching Broomhead become King on Day Three. I honestly thought there was absolutely no way that would happen! Thankfully, we got away with executing the person we most suspected to be the Doctor [The Silent Speaker], and even MORE thankfully, Fritzler never revealed his second innocent investigation under the premise that he would be protected. The scum were very fortunate on Day Three, for the most part.

Night Three Talk:

Oh, god, I had completely forgotten about this place. Just sent PMs to everybody, though, so *shrug*.

And actually Vaughn, it might be for the better that TSS was a vanilla townie. If had been the Doctor, Broomhead would have looked exceedingly bad for not allowing TSS to role-claim, and right now, Broomhead is our best shot at winning this game with an uncounterclaimed Hero.

I'm going to agree with you on the likelihood of no vigs in this game simply because we haven't had multiple night kills yet.

However, I'm thinking to make up for that, BMQ's beefed up the number of docs/cops.

Going after Fritzler is the best choice since it's the only way to protect us , however, he will be most likely protected. Targetting Fritzler will only verify that we have a doc, which i think isn't worth the trade.

I think a Yos/Shamrock/Vitr kill will prove much more useful in gathering information as well as perhaps taking out a power role.

So considering your list, PJ: Vitr is my choice for the kill.

I seriously doubt BMQ 'beefed up' the Doctors. I can guarantee that there are not two doctors, because then they could simply self-protect each other and we would be screwed (unless one of us was made King/Queen and we outed ourselves simply to kill a Doc).

At most, there is one Doctor. And at the moment, I cannot see who the Doctor would be.

All right, assume we kill VitaminR (and turns up townie), and he was not one of the people Fritzler investigated. That leaves 13 players alive. Considering all innocent investigations, and no crossing of investigations onto the Kingmaker:

4 of 13 would be scum
1 of 13 would be Cop (Fritzler)
1 of 13 would be Kingmaker (Thok)
4 of 13 would be Investigated Innocent (LML, N_Lich, and 2 others)
3 of 13 would be unknown, but town

Leaving only THREE players we could push a lynch onto. And I seriously doubt we will be able to do that very effectively.

That is why I think I would rather go for a Fritzler kill tonight. If we are successful, that leaves:

4 of 13 would be scum
1 of 13 would be Kingmaker (Thok)
2 of 13 would be Investigated Innocent (LML and N_Lich)
6 of 13 would be unknown, but town

And this DOUBLES the possible people besides us that we can push lynches on, which is very good, imo.

Also, if we target VitaminR and he is not the Doctor, we will have the same problem every night: whether to assume there is a Doctor and leave Fritzler alone, or to try to find the Doctor.

I think we need to take a chance and take out Fritzler. We are immensely lucky that he did not give out his investigated innocent yesterday, and I think we need to use that to our advantage.

I'll wait for feedback, though. I know EK is good with targeting Fritz, but I want everybody to be in on this.

Actually, there's a mistake in that, I had forgotten that Glork is also a confirmed innocent as Mason. If we kill VitaminR tonight, then, and he is townie (and actually, even if he is Doctor):

4 of 13 are scum
1 of 13 is Cop (Fritzler)
1 of 13 is Kingmaker (Thok)
1 of 13 is Mason (Glork)
4 of 13 is Investigated Innocent (LML, N_Lich, and 2 others)
2 of 13 are unknown, but town

So basically, with 13 alive, the town can afford two mislynches: which means they can lynch ALL 6 unconfirmed players to win. Even if we get them to lynch both unknowns, that brings the count down to 9 players with 4 scum, at which point the town will execute us one by one. So worst case scenario, if we kill VitaminR, there is a very real chance that will already have lost (the ONLY exception to this being a stray Vigilante kill or if, for some reason, one of us becomes King/Queen).

So, if we instead kill Fritzler:

4 of 13 are scum
1 of 13 is Kingmaker (Thok)
1 of 13 is Mason (Glork)
2 of 13 are Investigated Innocent (LML and N_Lich)
5 of 13 are unknown, but town

I think that makes it pretty clear that we really have no choice but to kill Fritzler tonight, or else we already run the risk of losing this game.

What if our Kill isn't successful? would it not be better to have Vitr dead instead of a no-kill?

Vaughn, if we kill VitaminR, we must be fairly sure he is the Doctor. If he is not, then we are killing off an

unconfirmed townie

, which is something we

cannot

afford. The longer we wait in trying to kill townies, the more likely it is the town will continuously confirm itself and narrow down lynching choices to us.

Unless you can find who you think to be the Doctor, I think we must take the chance on Fritzler tonight.

I will wait for feedback. Has Broomhead PM'd either of you lately?

Broomhead has not.

I'm trying to figure out if LML or N_Lich could be a doctor.

*sigh* All right, I am sending in the kill. Let's hope for the best! And remember, if Fritz claims a guilty on any of us, NOBODY DEFEND (besides the person being fingered, of course)! I say a guilty result immediately goes for a doctor claim, because if Fritz is still alive, that will be the role we're looking for, and any possible reactions we can get from the real Doctor will be instrumental in helping us.

If i had to kill a confirmed townie, I think it would be N_lich simply because his activity in the game is more of "That's a good point, _____"

But LML and N_Lich haven't caught our scent yet so the risk of keeping them alive is quite low.

Alright PJ, I don't think they're any more [doccy] than anyone else, so we'll go for the Fritz kill.

No guts no glory right?

And then Glork executed me the next day. I was planning on claiming Vigilante who was going to target either Broomhead or MMoD, obviously, on the off-chance BMQ was seriously screwing over the scum. A Vigilante to help the town killing off unconfirmeds would have been tragic for scum.

As it is, our night-kill choices Nights Two and Night Three were practically forced, or the scum would lose simply because of all the confirmed innocents, rather than actual good play from the town. In future games, I would advise against so many fricking confirmable roles! Argh.

The

only

thing in this game that really helped the scum in this game was the Hero claim. If we did not have that, I am positive that even the cleverest scum would have had a SUBTANTIALLY worse than a 50% chance at winning in this game.

[petroleumjelly]

>< Please delete one of those gigantic posts, and this one as well! MafiaScum told me there was an error.

BMQ Sez: I'll delete one of the huge posts, but I'm leaving this one to make you look foolish. =P

[Glork]

....apparently two of PJ's posts went through, and mine didn't.


Here's an abbreviated version of what I was saying:
I'm still mad at myself for having outed both Fritz and Twomz before executing Amelia. Not picking up on Fritz as Cop was absolutely bone-headed -- possibly one of my most idiotic moments as a pro-town player.
I think both sides played rather well. I'm a little disappointed that EK and Vaughn both went inactive as they fell to executions, though it's hard to say if a more active player would've helped the scum win. If there was one downside to the way this game played out, I feel that was it.... especially considering PJ and BH/VF played so brilliantly.
Meh, I don't think I need to talk about my personal performance much. 4 of 5 scum and had I not played Outguess the Mod, I *might* have been onto BH before I died.
Conga-rats to Thok on the "safe play" decision. While I was talking to BMQ after Vaughn got executed, we had this little exchange:

(20:54:25) GlorkTheInvader: Anyway
(20:54:26) GlorkTheInvader: back to my plan
(20:54:37) AllForTheBrian: if the Kingmaker claims tomorrow, then they'll have to be killed that night
(20:54:40) GlorkTheInvader: Kingmaker claims, having made the most suspicious player the King.
(20:54:50) GlorkTheInvader: Thok/MMoD are mostly clear
(20:55:03) GlorkTheInvader: so they tell the King to execute the Hero, under the assumption that he is the last Assassin
(20:55:19) GlorkTheInvader: Even if Thok or MMoD is the last scum
(20:55:30) GlorkTheInvader: the Townie executing the Hero guarantees his innocence
(20:55:33) AllForTheBrian: yeah, it's a solid plan
(20:55:35) AllForTheBrian: problem is
(20:55:37) AllForTheBrian: you're dead

Needless to say, I was *thrilled* to see Thok propose a "Test 3 of 4 non-Kingmakers" plan. It was definitely the right play, regardless of who the last scum was... VikingFan played it off as well as he could. It's very, very, very difficult to worm your way out of that kind of situation, but VF kept trying to nudge the town towards MMoD/Yos lynches (in some order or another).



Anyway, this was a fantastic game, and very well-played all around. Theory-related stuff will be in the Theory thread, but I really want to thank BMQ for one of my favorite games to date.

[vikingfan]

Thanks for the congrats, glork. And thok, I would agree with you, but if I had killed fuldu when I was king, here is what the scenario would have been.

5 players, 2 scum (but 2 are pretty obviously guilty). Whether I kill vitaminr or not in this scenario doesn't matter. Vaughn is most likely lynched and that leaves it at 4 players in thok's scenario. Obviously, thok is kept alive and I have to kill the other town nonkingmaker. Which would mean that this game would have come down to a 50-50 guess. The reason why I didn't go that route was because I was concerned A) that there was a scenario that I hadn't anticipated that could enable town to best win, and B) if I guess wrong, I would be the automatic choice for a lynch. But if I lynch Vaughn, then I pretty much clear myself and would hopefully coast to victory- and would have been the proper play had I the claim of townie instead of hero.

I might still have gotten away with it if I had lynched thok- I was hoping the 'lynch hero' plan wouldn't be seriously proposed.

[Vaughn]

I think a kill of me was a horrible move vikingfan... it really threw us for a loop, because I already knew I was going to die the next day, but by killing me, you wasted a day for yourself. I wanted:

a) a Fuldu execution, followed up with a Thok Night kill. it would've been perfect to switch to conventional mafia voting-style, because a hero claim at that point would be the same as a townie's, and the "testing" of your claim wouldn't have occured.

Or

b) a VitR execution, followed up with a Thok night kill... the new king will of course execute me, and you (vikingfan) would've been in the final 3. A much more possible scenario.

[vikingfan]

b is applicable, but not a. I knew already with so many townies left the kingmaker would always exist. the problem I had was that I would have no chance in endgame if I were not king- I had no illusions on that score.

But yeah, in retrospect, killing you was a bad play.

[Yosarian2]

Heh. Good game, all. Brilliant play, Thok, I'm not sure I would have thought of that if I was king.

It's funny...my scumdar ping of broomhead day 1 was right, and I was the first who pointed out that there might not be an actual hero in the game, with PJ fighting me hard on that one, and yet I let it fool me in the end.

[petroleumjelly]

Eh, to respond to Glork...

Trust me, I knew Fritzler was the Cop before you outed him. I believe Thok and I both hinted that we knew Fritz's role before he ever claimed it, and I already had it written in my notes, and was very much planning on taking him out the next night (until we had the

second

Cop come up, in which case we switched over to Twomz). In other words, scum already would have known, and the town would not, so outing him was not as detrimental as you would otherwise think.

Also, thanks to Vikingfan for trying to salvage the end of that game: I was personally hoping you would make sure to put the town in LyLo by executing somebody other than Vaughn, so that all you need is one scum-king or a mis-execution to win the game. Executing Vaughn means you have to live past two days by yourself, with the exact scenario I was fearing (simply killing or testing as many unconfirmed innocents as possible).

I also wouldn't have nightkilled VitaminR, but that's mostly because I realized he was the Kingmaker (which became apparent to me after Thok claimed not to be the Kingmaker). Killing the Kingmaker lets an otherwise lynchbait player (Fuldu, in this case) get off the hook without fear of a counterclaim.

The only scenario in which I would be okay with killing VitaminR would be:

-On Day 7, execute Fuldu/Yosarian2/MMoD...
-On Night 7, nightkill VitaminR
-On Day 8, have Vaughn

counterclaim

the new Kingmaker (since the dead Kingmaker would obviously try to assure the scummiest townie alive would be Kingmaker, so they would be "safe" from execution), and then see what happens

For a replacement, though, Vikingfan did an excellent job of looking like a Hero in a bad situation.

[vikingfan]

What exactly tipped you off that vitaminr was kingmaker? He struck me as being the most innocent player and that's why I went after him...

Dang...I didn't even think of that scenario until you just posted it- if I'd thought of it, I would for sure have gone for the lynch of fuldu...oh well. What you're forgetting is that the town will KNOW that I'm scum along with vaughn- I was seeing no possible way of justifying killing fuldu (who was my other choice). Had I killed fuldu, I would have expected either myself or vaughn to die the next day and then the game comes down to a 50-50 guess as to who I kill at night (since I didn't think I could win an endgame). Hmm...

[Fuldu]

I didn't have nearly as much in th eway of night thought processes to go through, but my one decision went something like this:

If there's more than one scum left, we are pretty nearly screwed, so let's assume that's not the case. With only one scum left, the most important thing going into today is to not force ourselves into an unwinnable situation for tomorrow. Three things can accomplish that: 1) executing the king (by executing the hero), 2) executing the kingmaker (and then making the former king kingmaker), or 3) making scum king today. Options 1 and 3 can potentially be combined, if I play it right. I trust Thok the least, so let's make him king, and put him in a difficult situation. If he executes broomhead, then we've made it through the day safely. If he executes me, then we've made it through the day safely, and hopefully the living will have learned something from that.

[Thok]

-On Day 7, execute Fuldu/Yosarian2/MMoD...
-On Night 7, nightkill VitaminR
-On Day 8, have Vaughn

counterclaim

the new Kingmaker (since the dead Kingmaker would obviously try to assure the scummiest townie alive would be Kingmaker, so they would be "safe" from execution), and then see what happens

For a replacement, though, Vikingfan did an excellent job of looking like a Hero in a bad situation.

In that scenario (execute Fuldu, kill VitR) I'd have asked for an immediate lynch of vikingfan without claims: we can't win if he's actually the hero, so we have to assume he's not. (If he's the hero, then in the best case scenario we'd have exking, kingmaker, scum, hero, and scum wins by lynching the hero). We'd then have to have Vaughn misguess the kingmaker (essentially a coin flip) and correctly lynch Vaughn (the easy part ).

I'd also like to know how you knew that VitaminR was kingmaker-I was sure it was Yosarian2.

[petroleumjelly]

Eh... just small things and gut feeling. A couple more telling posts:

I am pretty satisfied with Glork as king. Perceptive and confirmed.

Anyway, Vote: Fritzler.
Voting everyone Day 1 was unproductive, responding to Glork's directive by voting four random(?) players and ignoring his request for reasons equally so and makes this repeated behaviour really scummy in my eyes.

This is a different sort of game. Voting is a lot less important because the King needs content to base decisions on. You haven't made any attempt to adjust your playing style to that.

This was the post that ultimately convinced me, though.

1.) VitaminR likes Glork as king on D2
2.) VitaminR is weary of Fritzler (also weary of Fritzler as King earlier)
3.) The fact that Broomhead was chosen over Fritzler for King on D3

Broomhead was still the most confusing Kingmaker choice, I thought he was so scummy that I wanted to throw him under the bus so I would look better, until I noticed people backing off the Hero claim. At that point, I decided I would just be the lone person yelling and screaming at him for the rest of the game, sticking to my guns.

I realized that VitaminR never really made negative comments towards Broomhead, which made me confident he would be one of the very

few

players who would have considered Broomhead as King after his early play.

[Thok]

I didn't have nearly as much in th eway of night thought processes to go through, but my one decision went something like this:

If there's more than one scum left, we are pretty nearly screwed, so let's assume that's not the case. With only one scum left, the most important thing going into today is to not force ourselves into an unwinnable situation for tomorrow. Three things can accomplish that: 1) executing the king (by executing the hero), 2) executing the kingmaker (and then making the former king kingmaker), or 3) making scum king today. Options 1 and 3 can potentially be combined, if I play it right. I trust Thok the least, so let's make him king, and put him in a difficult situation. If he executes broomhead, then we've made it through the day safely. If he executes me, then we've made it through the day safely, and hopefully the living will have learned something from that.

I approve of this thinking. I was actually deciding if it was worthwhile to make this sort of suggestion on the penultimate day (if we lynch scum, make a scummy person king), but decided that
a. that would encourage scum not to kill their own
b. that it would make me look scummy enough that I could be justifiably killed.

[vikingfan]

Hmm- I didn't see that...I was on the same line of thought as thok, that yosarian was kingmaker...guess I learned some new stuff for my next game.

[the silent speaker]

Thankfully, we got away with executing the person we most suspected to be the Doctor [The Silent Speaker]

You were even luckier than you realize. After I died, Twomz sent me a PM commiserating that he had died with an innocent result on me.

[Twomz]

Do you know what the worst part is? The night I died I got an innocent on TSS .

GG town. If there was a Doc, I would have gone to their house and KILLED THEM PAINFULLY. But, there wasn't, so i'm not going to.

[VitaminR]

Good play, town. Glad to have won this game.

The motivations for my choices:
TSS - I decided to go for an experienced player. I chose TSS because I hadn't really played with him that much before (though I had seen a bit of his play) and I thought that would make him unlikely to be tied to me.
Glork - Experienced player who seemed pro-town and playing well.
broomhead - Erm... in retrospect, I would have chosen LML here. This was the busiest week of my uni year and I honestly hadn't had that much time to follow the game. In my head, chamber, Fritzler and broomhead were confirmed (I blindly followed the hero claim, sadly). Of the three, broomhead seemed easily led by majority opinion and the safest choice. It hadn't really sunk in that LML, who I would have trusted, had replaced chamber. Yeah...
Glork - Judiciously Masony.
Rosso Carne - Confirmed.
Thok - After the kingmaker thing I felt that Thok was pro-town. Also, his list of suspicions matched mine fairly well. I was hoping for a Fuldu or Vaughn execution and he seemed the best choice for that.
Vikingfan - I still considered broomhead confirmed. I was a bit hesitant to put him back on the throne after TSS, but I still believed the hero claim.
Fuldu - He seemed most in need of a way to prove his innocence.

[vikingfan]

BTW, IMO, this game is a good example of why not to trust voting patterns- PJ was on my case all game and I willingly threw Vaughn under the bus- too bad the town didn't 'play correctly' and go by the voting patterns...

Another reason, I suppose, why it's not always best to look just at the vote counts...

[Mr Stoofer]

Last post.